ia-04 dfm research for smart (sept. 2014)

8/11/2019 IA-04 DFM Research for SMART (Sept. 2014)

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im arrett

Director

RogerMartinson

Ass Director

Eric Darling

Chairman

Rick

Robertson

Vice Chairman

Chris

Nelson

Secretary

TR NSPORT TION

IVISION

P Box 682

Creston

Iowa

50801

641 278 0699

C:

641 340 1851

utuislbtichotrnell co

smsrt utu iowe c

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE

9 25 2013

Subject: Iowa

.q.th

Congressional District survey shows strong support for 2 person train crews and

passenger rail.

The SMART-Transportation Division s Iowa Legislative Board has released results from a survey

taken in Iowa s 4

th

Congressional District that shows strong

support

for passenger rail and safe, two

person train crew operations.

The poll was conducted September 20

th

- 23,dby DFM Research ofSt. Paul, MN SMART TD

represents conductors, switchmen, engineers, airline pilots and bus drivers throughout the United

States and Canada. Prior to merging with the SheetMetalWorkers International Association the

Transportation Divisionwas known as the United Transportation Union.

When asked, 86 of the polled residents in the 4

th

District combined to either supported current or

increased levels of service byAmtrak. This

number closely mirrors the results from a poll last year

taken in the Iowa 3,dDistrict when the same question resulted in 87 support. In both polls only

3 supported elimination of

mtrak

Amtrak has experienced record ridership in recent years. For fiscal year 2013 (most recent data

available) ridership nationwide was 31.6 million passengers, up from 31.2 million in 2012. In Iowa

a new record of 59,825 boardlngs/alightlngs was se t in 2013, up 1.1 . Amtrak spent over 1.1

million dollars on goods and services in Iowa during FY 2013.

When asked ifthey could support new service from Des Moines to cities like Chicago

or

Denver,

70 said yes while 22 said no. Again,this closely follows Iowans choice in the 3,dDistrict where

75

support

additional service while

18

said no.With airline travel being both hassling, crowded

and unpredictable, Iowans seek to have more travel options and passenger rail is gaining support.

The dangers of only having one person responsible for the safety of train movements became

tragically clear last year when a train in Canada ran away and virtually destroyed the community of

Lac-Megantic and killed 47 people. In Spain a passenger train careened around a curve attwice the

posted speed limit killing 80 people and injuring dozens more. In both cases a second crewmember

would very likely have prevented these tragedies. In the Iowa 4

tl

CD

poll, Iowans made clear their

position when 87 responded

that

a one person operation is not as safe as two and

supported

a

congressional bill requiring two persons by 83 .


2/14

September

2014

Iowa 4th

District SurveAmtrak, Two-Person Crew, and Transportatio

DFM ResearchDean Mitchell, Consultant

Saint Paul, MN 55102

www.dfmresearch.com


3/14

Iowa 4th

District SurveySeptember, 2014Prepared by DFM Research

Page 2of 13

Survey Methodology:

The survey results presented are based on a stratified random sample of 450 Iowa Congressional

District 4 residents contacted by landline and cell phone. The sample was stratified by region to

ensure a representative sample of residents. The sample was comprised of five distinct regions:

16% - Ames Area

15% - Sioux City Area25% - Eastern Rural Counties

27% - Central Rural Counties

17% - Western Rural Counties

After the numbers were stratified into the appropriate region, telephone numbers were then selected

by random using a skip pattern to guarantee that the interviews were distributed throughout the

region. Each number in the stratified sample had the same non-zero chance of being selected for an

interview.

Telephone interviews were conducted by trained staff of Stone Research Services of Indianapolis,

Indiana, using a computer-assisted telephone interview (CATI) system for landline phones. Cell

phone interviews are dialed manually to comply with the Telemarketing Consumer Protection Actof 1991. To ensure everyone in the household would have an equal chance of being selected; callerswould ask to interview the resident over the age of 18 who had the most recent birthday.

Final results are weighted based on gender, age, and education to conform to the approximate

population based on the 2010 U.S. Census Bureau demographic data.

Gender Age Education

Male 50% 18-39 37% High School/Less 44%

Female 50% 40-64 41% Some College/AA 34%

65+ 22% Bachelor/Graduate 22%

The final results are subject to sampling error, which is the difference between results obtained fromthe survey and those if everyone in the target population were interviewed. The sampling error,commonly known as the margin of error, is + 4.6 percentage points with a 95 percent confidence

level; meaning that in 19 out of 20 times, the results presented would be within the margin of error

(confidence interval). If final results of a question resulted in a tabulated answer of 50 percent, the

confidence interval would between 45.4 to 54.6 percent. Where appropriate, question and answerchoices are randomized to reduce order bias; due to rounding, numbers may not equal 100 percent.

Project management and final analysis of the data was completed by Dean Mitchell of DFM

Research based in Saint Paul, Minnesota. In addition to his 23 years of political experience, Dean

has completed course work in survey techniques and statistics as part of his Master in Public Policy(MPP) degree from the University of Minnesotas Humphrey School of Public Affairs.

For Additional Information

Dean Mitchell

[email protected]


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Iowa 4th


Page 3of 13

Interviews: 450 residents over the age 18 that reside in Iowas Fourth Congressional District.

Margin of Error: +4.6 percentage points

Interview Dates: September 21-26, 2014

Sample: Landline and cell phone sample. Random digit numbers provided by Survey SampleInternational (SSI) of Fairfield, CT. SSI provided Stone Research with 5,000 residential

random phone numbers from a pool of listed and unlisted numbers in the boundary area, and

1,750 cell phone numbers; which then were stratified into five distinct geographical regions.Survey Sponsor: SMART Transportation, Iowa State Legislative Boards

Q1: Generally speaking, do you think the country is moving in the right direction, or is thecountry off on the wrong track?

Right direction ................................................................................... 24%

Wrong track ...................................................................................... 62

(VOL) Unsure................................................................................... 13

Q2: And generally speaking, do you think Iowa is moving in the right direction, or is Iowa off on

the wrong track?

Right direction ................................................................................... 66%Wrong track ...................................................................................... 22

(VOL) Unsure................................................................................... 12

Q3: Im nowgoing to read you names of some public figures and organizations, for each one,

please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion, and if you never heard of

them before, just let me know.

Favorable Unfavorable Neutral (VOL) Never Heard Of

Q3a: Barack Obama 34 60 6 0Q3b: Tom Harkin 51 33 10 6

Q3c: Charles Grassley 66 20 8 5

Q3d: Terry Branstad 59 32 6 3

Q3e: Steve King 39 42 10 9

Q3f: Bruce Braley 24 41 20 14

Q3g: Jim Mowrer 22 12 28 39

Q3h: Jack Hatch 23 31 24 22

Q3i: Tea Party 29 51 15 4

Q3j: Republican Party 46 40 13 1

Q3k: Democratic Party 40 48 11 0

Q5: If the election was held today for Governor, would you vote for Jack Hatch the Democrat, or

Terry Branstad the Republican? (very likely/certain to vote; N=375, MoE +5.1%pts)

Jack Hatch ........................................................................................ 32%Terry Branstad .................................................................................. 56(VOL) Unsure ................................................................................... 12


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Iowa 4th


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Q12: When it comes to spending on transportation needs in your area, do you think thegovernment spends too much, about the right amount, or not enough on transportation

needs.

Too much .......................................................................................... 8%About the right amount ..................................................................... 40

Not enough ....................................................................................... 52

Q14: Currently Amtrak has one daily passenger train in Iowa, with service to Chicago andCalifornia. When it comes to passenger rail service, which best fits your view?

Passenger rail service should increase .............................................. 48%

Passenger rail service should remain the same ................................. 38

Passenger rail service should be eliminated ..................................... 3(VOL) Unsure................................................................................... 12

Q15: Right now train service in your area is not always convenient. If there was an additional

train or trains as a daytime option with service from Des Moines to cities like Chicago or

Denver, do you find this an idea you could support?

Yes .................................................................................................... 70%

No ..................................................................................................... 22(VOL) Unsure ................................................................................... 8

Now just a few more questions on other rail related issues.

Q17: How worried are you about a train derailments in your community?

Very Worried .................................................................................... 2%Fairly Worried .................................................................................. 3

Just Somewhat Worried .................................................................... 13Not that Worried ............................................................................... 80

(VOL) Unsure ................................................................................... 1

Currently most freight trains in Iowa operate with a crew of two, but now there are efforts by

railroads to reduce the crew to just one person on some trains.

Q18: When it comes to railroad safety and operations, do you think a train with a crew of oneindividual can be operated as safe as a train with a crew of two individuals?

Yes, one operator can be as safe as two ............................................ 8%

No, one operator cannot be as safe as two ........................................ 87

(VOL) Unsure ................................................................................... 5

Q19: Now suppose trains in your area operated with only a crew of one on the engine, how

worried would you be now about a train derailment in your community?

Very Worried .................................................................................... 16%Fairly Worried .................................................................................. 13

Just Somewhat Worried .................................................................... 29Not that Worried ............................................................................... 40(VOL) Unsure ................................................................................... 1


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Iowa 4th


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Q21: Some in Congress want to enact a law, known as H.R. 3040 the Safe Freight Act, and ifpassed would require all freight trains to operate with a crew of at least two people. Suppose

you could vote on this bill. Would you vote YES to pass H.R. 3040 or would you voted NO,

and reject H.R. 3040.

Yes, pass ........................................................................................... 83%No, reject .......................................................................................... 11(VOL) Unsure ................................................................................... 6

QD3: When it comes to political parties, do you consider yourself a:

Democrat ........................................................................................... 27%

an Independent .................................................................................. 41

Republican ........................................................................................ 32

QD4: When it comes to your political philosophy, which do you consider yourself

Liberal ............................................................................................... 20%

Moderate ........................................................................................... 40Conservative ..................................................................................... 37Tea Party ........................................................................................... 4


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Iowa 4th


Page 8of 13

Q10b: Im now going to read you a few more names and concepts. For each one, please tell me ifyou have a favorable or unfavorable opinion, and if you never heard of them before, just let

me know.

High Speed Rail

Favorable .......................................................................................... 51%

Unfavorable ...................................................................................... 19Neutral/Unsure (VOL)...................................................................... 20Never Heard Of ................................................................................ 10

Gender Fav Unfav Neutral NHO

Men 51% 21 17 12

Women 51 17 24 8

Age Fav Unfav Neutral NHO

18-39 49 16 23 13

40-64 56 18 18 9

Over 65 45 26 22 7

Education Fav Unfav Neutral NHO

High School/Less 47 22 20 12

Some College/AA Degree 49 18 23 10

Bachelor/Graduate Degree 62 16 17 5

Region Fav Unfav Neutral NHO

Ames Area 52 27 9 9

Sioux City Area 59 16 9 9

Eastern Counties 47 20 12 12

Central Counties 56 23 7 7Western Counties 40 28 12 12

Party Identification Fav Unfav Neutral NHO

Democrat 61 17 12 10

Independent 52 17 21 10

Republican 41 23 27 9

Ideology Fav Unfav Neutral NHO

Liberal 64 12 18 6

Moderate 58 14 20 8

Conservative 37 26 23 13


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Iowa 4th


Page 9of 13

Q11: Thinking about your areasoverall transportation infrastructure including roads, bridges,rail, air and public transportationhow would you rate it?

Excellent ........................................................................................... 4%Good ................................................................................................. 34Satisfactory ....................................................................................... 33Poor .................................................................................................. 21

Failing ............................................................................................... 7(VOL) Unsure................................................................................... 1

Gender Excllnt Good Sat Poor Failing

Men 3% 38 33 15 9

Women 5 30 33 27 4

Age Excllnt Good Sat Poor Failing

18-39 3 40 32 18 6

40-64 6 30 32 22 9

65 plus 3 31 37 24 4

Education Excllnt Good Sat Poor Failing

High School/Less 4 33 39 16 7

Some College/AA Degree 4 35 27 26 7

Bachelor/Graduate Degree 5 34 31 23 7

Region Excllnt Good Sat Poor Failing

Ames Area 7 37 27 20 9

Sioux City Area 4 31 30 28 5

Eastern Counties 3 32 36 21 7

Central Counties 3 35 39 15 8

Western Counties 5 35 28 26 4

Party Identification Excllnt Good Sat Poor Failing

Democrat 3 30 33 24 10

Independent 5 30 33 24 6

Republican 3 42 34 16 4

Ideology Excllnt Good Sat Poor Failing

Liberal 2 34 22 28 13

Moderate 5 31 39 17 5

Conservative 4 37 32 21 5


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Iowa 4th


Page 10of 13

Q14: Currently Amtrak has one daily passenger train in Iowa, with service to Chicago andCalifornia. When it comes to passenger rail service, which best fits your view?

Passenger rail service should increase .............................................. 48%

Passenger rail service should remain the same ................................. 38Passenger rail service should be eliminated ..................................... 3(VOL) Unsure................................................................................... 12

Gender Increase Same Cut/Elmnte Unsure

Men 49% 39 2 10

Women 47 37 3 13

Age Increase Same Cut/Elmnte Unsure

18-39 47 37 3 13

40-64 50 38 3 9

65 plus 46 38 2 15

Education Increase Same Cut/Elmnte Unsure

High School/Less 47 36 4 13

Some College/AA Degree 44 43 3 10

Bachelor/Graduate Degree 56 34 1 9

Region Increase Same Cut/Elmnte Unsure

Ames Area 59 37 0 4

Sioux City Area 53 34 3 11

Eastern Counties 48 36 2 14

Central Counties 47 38 4 11

Western Counties 36 44 4 16

Party Identification Increase Same Cut/Elmnte Unsure

Democrat 61 24 5 10

Independent 48 41 1 10

Republican 38 45 3 14

Ideology Increase Same Cut/Elmnte Unsure

Liberal 59 28 4 10

Moderate 57 32 2 9

Conservative 34 48 3 14


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Iowa 4th


Page 11of 13

Q15: Right now train service in your area is not always convenient. If there was an additionaltrain or trains as a daytime option with service from Des Moines to cities like Chicago or

Denver, do you find this an idea you could support?

Yes .................................................................................................... 70%No ..................................................................................................... 22(VOL) Unsure ................................................................................... 8

Gender Yes No Unsure

Men 71% 22 7

Women 69 23 8

Age Yes No Unsure

18-39 72 20 8

40-64 73 20 7

65 plus 61 30 9

Education Yes No Unsure

High School/Less 66 26 8

Some College/AA Degree 72 19 9

Bachelor/Graduate Degree 75 19 6

Region Yes No Unsure

Ames Area 85 10 4

Sioux City Area 66 27 5

Eastern Counties 71 19 10

Central Counties 69 23 8

Western Counties 58 33 9

Party Identification Yes No Unsure

Democrat 80 16 4

Independent 72 21 6

Republican 59 29 12

Ideology Yes No Unsure

Liberal 78 16 6

Moderate 74 17 9

Conservative 62 31 7


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Iowa 4th


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Q18: When it comes to railroad safety and operations, do you think a train with a crew of oneindividual can be operated as safe as a train with a crew of two individuals?

Yes, one operator can be as safe as two ............................................ 8%

No, one operator cannot be as safe as two ........................................ 87(VOL) Unsure ................................................................................... 5

Gender Yes No Unsure

Men 12% 82 6

Women 5 92 3

Age Yes No Unsure

18-39 7 84 9

40-64 9 89 1

65 plus 9 89 2

Education Yes No Unsure




Region Yes No Unsure

Ames Area 6 90 4





Party Identification Yes No Unsure

Democrat 5 92 3

Independent 10 84 6

Republican 9 87 4

Ideology Yes No Unsure

Liberal 2 92 6

Moderate 10 87 3

Conservative 9 86 5


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Iowa 4th


Q21: Some in Congress want to enact a law, known as H.R. 3040 the Safe Freight Act, and ifpassed would require all freight trains to operate with a crew of at least two people. Suppose

you could vote on this bill. Would you vote YES to pass H.R. 3040 or would you voted NO,

and reject H.R. 3040.

Yes, pass ........................................................................................... 83%No, reject .......................................................................................... 11(VOL) Unsure ................................................................................... 6

Gender Pass Reject Unsure

Men 8% 13 7

Women 86 9 5

Age Pass Reject Unsure

18-39 80 12 8

40-64 86 10 3

65 plus 85 10 5

Education Pass Reject Unsure




Region Pass Reject Unsure

Ames Area 86 9 6





Party Identification Pass Reject Unsure

Democrat 85 9 6

Independent 80 14 6

Republican 85 9 6

Ideology Pass Reject Unsure

Liberal 89 7 5

Moderate 83 10 7

Conservative 81 13 6

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