i. technology ii. implications iii. solutions iv. globalization i. technology ii. implications iii....

Challenges of Challenges of NanotechNanotech

Challenges of Challenges of NanotechNanotech

I. TECHNOLOGY

II. IMPLICATIONS

III. SOLUTIONS

IV. GLOBALIZATION

I. TECHNOLOGY

II. IMPLICATIONS

III. SOLUTIONS

IV. GLOBALIZATION

Mike Treder, Executive DirectorCenter for Responsible Nanotechnology

Mike Treder, Executive DirectorCenter for Responsible Nanotechnology

Senior Associates Gathering May 16, 2004 Palo Alto, California, USA Senior Associates Gathering May 16, 2004 Palo Alto, California, USA

© 2004 Center for Responsible Nanotechnology

I.I. Develop TechnologyDevelop Technology

II.II. Understand ImplicationsUnderstand Implications

III.III. Prepare SolutionsPrepare Solutions

IV.IV. Implement Globally Implement Globally

Challenges of NanotechChallenges of Nanotech


I. TECHNOLOGYI. TECHNOLOGY

• Desktop manufacturing is on its way

• Not IF, but HOW SOON

• Gating factor is determination, not feasibility

• Increasing number of routes to get there


Molecular ToolboxMolecular Toolbox

Nanoscale ElevatorNanoscale Elevator

Nanoscale Conveyor BeltNanoscale Conveyor Belt

Ultra-short Pulsed LaserUltra-short Pulsed Laser


Technical University of Denmark — a whole lab integrated under an electron microscope

Two manipulators and a turntable, and MEMS tips for the manipulators

They can build 20-nanometer tips on the MEMS tips by using the electron beam to deposit metal atoms

Small enough to move individual molecules around

Lab-on-SEMLab-on-SEM


MNT in Russia?MNT in Russia?

• Fixation, displacement and activation of atoms, polymerization, deposition, etching in technological chamber and flexible microreactors

• Efficient seismic and acoustic isolation

• Accuracy of positioning control - 1A

• Step displacement of sample along X,Y axes - 10 mm

• High-speed and wide scanning at range up to 30x30 u and detailed investigation at region less than 1x1 nm


CRN Director of Research Chris Phoenix says:CRN Director of Research Chris Phoenix says:

““If I were going to specify If I were going to specify a system for building a system for building the final proto-assembler,the final proto-assembler, it might look quite a it might look quite a lot like this.”lot like this.”

Building a proto-assembler?Building a proto-assembler?


Manipulation instrument ~ $30K USManipulation instrument ~ $30K US

AFM instrument ~ $6K USAFM instrument ~ $6K US

The Cost FactorThe Cost Factor


March 2004: March 2004: Institute of Nanotechnology (makers of above Institute of Nanotechnology (makers of above instruments) and Youth Science Society instruments) and Youth Science Society announce "competition of Russian youth announce "competition of Russian youth projects on domestic projects on domestic MNTMNT development". development".

Will Russia get MNT first?Will Russia get MNT first?


Rapid BootstrappingRapid Bootstrapping

Basic design by R. Merkle, artwork by K. E. Drexler


The NanofactoryThe Nanofactory

• Integrate large numbers of nanoscale chemical fabrication units

• Combine nanoscale pieces into large-scale products

• General-purpose manufacturing in a tabletop format

• Extremely advanced products with compact functionality

• Produce its own weight in hours; produce copies of itself


Exponential Doubling Exponential Doubling

DAY NANOFACTORIES

1 1 3 2 5 4 7 8 9 16

11 32 13 64 15 128 17 256 19 512 21 1,024 Thousand

Length of Time for Nanofactory ProliferationBased on conservative estimate of two-days doubling time


Exponential Doubling Exponential Doubling

DAY NANOFACTORIES21 1,024 Thousand25 4,096 29 16,384 33 65,536 37 262,144 41 1,048,576 Million45 4,194,304 49 16,777,216 53 67,108,864 57 268,435,456 61 1,073,741,824 Billion

Length of Time for Nanofactory ProliferationBased on conservative estimate of two-days doubling time



— — HappeningHappening






II. IMPLICATIONSII. IMPLICATIONS

Will be transformative — probably disruptive

• Not WHETHER, but HOW MUCH and HOW FAST

• Economists have term: creative destruction

• AKA: unemployment lines


U.S. Semiconductor Industry U.S. Semiconductor Industry

• U.S. 2003 Sales = $80 Billion • Worldwide 2003 Sales = $166 Billion• U.S. Jobs = 226,000


Electronics ProductsElectronics Products

• Retail distribution = almost $300 billion annually in U.S. alone


Global Steel Industry Global Steel Industry

• Over 200 steel-making companies

• $700 billion in sales


More ImplicationsMore Implications

• Environmental damage

• Unstable arms races

• WMD proliferation

• War

• Terrorism

• Universal surveillance

• No privacy

• Intellectual property violation

• Black markets

• Smuggling


Nano PollutionNano Pollution

Ultimate test for the “Throw-

away

Society”?


SurveillanceSurveillance


Lack of PrivacyLack of Privacy


Nano WeaponsNano Weapons

Easy to build

Hard to monitor

Easy to deliver

Obsolete almost immediately

Programmable and controllable


WMD ProliferationWMD Proliferation


TerrorismTerrorism


Arms RaceArms Race


WarWar


We need solutions…We need solutions…

And we need them now.And we need them now.







Satisfactory

outcome requires

all four

to be effectively

addressed.

Satisfactory

outcome requires

all four

to be effectively

addressed.



— — HappeningHappening


— — Well begunWell begun

III.III. Prepare SolutionsPrepare Solutions — — Barely startedBarely started

IV.IV. Implement Globally Implement Globally — — ZilchZilch



III. SOLUTIONSIII. SOLUTIONS

• No easy answers!!

• Nanofactory control options

• Global administration network??

• Risks from competitive development

• Single international crash program??

• Avoiding an arms race


- Makes black market inevitable

- Manufacture of dangerous products

- Intellectual property violations

- Intellectual property violations

- Manufacture of dangerous products

- Removes incentive for black market

- Prevents alleviation of human suffering

- Hinders creation of prosperity

- Makes black market inevitable

- Allows alleviation of human suffering

- Fosters creation of unprecedented prosperity

- Reduces incentive for black market

Nanofactory Control OptionsNanofactory Control OptionsT

E C

H N

I C

A L

R E

S T

R I

C T

I O

N S

DISTRIBUTION & ACCESS

Loose

Loose

Tight

Tight


Old WorldOld World

Our lifetimes:

•Cold War

•Berlin Wall

•Space Race

•MAD


New WorldNew World

21st Century:

•World wide web

•American empire

•Globalization of science


Next WorldNext World

In a few years:

•Exponential general-purpose molecular manufacturing

•Wonderful benefits

•Terrible dangers


Never before has the world faced such a tremendous opportunity —

and never before have the risks been so great.

Earth on the BrinkEarth on the Brink


Unanswered QuestionsUnanswered Questions

How soon?

How disruptive?

No one knows.

No one knows.


Who is Interested?Who is Interested?

• People’s Republic of China

• British Royal Society

• U.S. National Science Foundation

• U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

• ACUNU Millennium Project

• Institute of Nanotechnology — Russia

• Greenpeace International


Web References to CRNWeb References to CRN

In all these languages…

Arabic, Chinese, Czech, Dutch, French, German, Hungarian, Italian, Japanese, Korean, Persian, Russian, Spanish, Swedish, Turkish, and English.


IV. GLOBALIZATIONIV. GLOBALIZATION

• The challenges of nanotechnology will have to be addressed by a diverse collection of people and organizations.

• No single approach will solve all problems or address all needs.


IV. GLOBALIZATIONIV. GLOBALIZATION

• The only answer is a collective answer, and that will demand an unprecedented collaboration of leaders in science, technology, business, government, and NGOs.

• It will require participation from people of many nations, cultures, languages, and belief systems.







When and How?

What and When?

Who and What?

What and How?

Satisfactory

outcome (survival?)

requires all four

to be effectively

addressed.

Satisfactory

outcome (survival?)

requires all four

to be effectively

addressed.


We must begin now to develop common understanding, create lines of communication, and build a stable structure that will enable humankind to pass safely through the transition into the nano era.

Our Greatest ChallengeOur Greatest Challenge


How You Can HelpHow You Can Help

• Contact your Senators/RepresentativesContact your Senators/Representatives

• Join the Join the C-R-NetworkC-R-Network

• We need contacts, researchers, moneyWe need contacts, researchers, money

Thank you!Thank you!

WEBSITE: www.CRNano.org

EMAIL: [email protected]

i. technology ii. implications iii. solutions iv. globalization i. technology ii. implications iii....

Documents

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