i nternational r esearch i nstitute for g ambling and g aming p rof. d r. d r. p eren a ssessment t...

INTERNATIONAL RESEARCH INSTITUTE FOR

GAMBLING AND GAMING

PROF. DR. DR. PEREN

ASSESSMENT TOOL TO MEASURE AND EVALUATE THE

RISK POTENTIAL OF GAMBLING PRODUCTS

Agenda

1. Pathological gambling2. Development of ASTERIG3. Risk potential criteria. The ten

dimensions4. Weights of the dimensions5. Score6. Classification7. Visualization8. Example 9. Conclusion10.Future directions2013-10-01

Copyright Prof. Dr. Dr. Peren. All rights reserved.

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1. Pathological gambling

Some individuals develop a recurrent, maladaptive pattern of gambling behavior, called pathological gambling. It is associated with financial losses, disruption of family and interpersonal relationships and co-occurring psychiatric disorders.

ASTERIG = assessment tool to measure and to evaluate the risk potential of any gambling product

Gambling products have different risk potentials.Availability of an objective, systematic tool to assess the risk potential of different gambling products.Help medical and psychological scientists, lawyers, judges, policy-makers assess the risk potential and allow objective comparison.

2013-10-01Copyright Prof. Dr. Dr. Peren. All rights

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2. Development of ASTERIG

Developed in Germany in 2006-2010.

Global Development under the head of the Columbia University, USA in 2011-2012.

Validated and updated globally by international leading experts.

International leading experts refined and enhanced the instrument.


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Experts Country Institution

Carlos Blanco USADepartment of Psychiatry Columbia University, New York State Psychiatric Institute

Alex Blaszczynski AUS University of Sydney, School of Psychology

Reiner Clement GEBonn-Rhein-Sieg University, Department of Business

Jeffrey Derevensky CANMcGill University, International Centre for Youth Gambling Problems and High Risk Behaviors

Anna E. Goudriaan NLUniversity of Amsterdam, Academic Medical Center

David C. Hodgins CAN University of Calgary, Department of Psychology

Ruth J. van Holst NLUniversity of Amsterdam, Academic Medical Center

Ángela Ibáñez ESPAlcala University, Department of Psychiatry, Ramon y Cajal Hospital

Silvia S. Martins USAColumbia University, Mailman School of Public Health

Chantal Moersen GE Charité Berlin

Sabrina Molinaro ICNR - Istituto di Fisiologia Clinica Sezione di Epidemiologia Pisa

Adrian Parke UK University of Lincoln

Franz W. Peren GEBonn-Rhein-Sieg University, Department of Business

Nancy M. Petry USA University of Connecticut, Health CenterHeather Wardle UK National Centre for Social Research

3. Risk potential criteria

Ten dimensions (parameters) provide a useful framework to examine the risk potential of different gambling products.

The dimensions are provided with scales:- Higher score indicate higher risk potential.- Scales: modified, standardized,

symmetric.- Scales between 0 (of no importance) and

10 (of very great importance).2013-10-01


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The ten dimensions

1. Event frequency2. Interval of payback3. Jackpot4. Continuity of playing5. Chance of winning a profit6. Availability7. Multiple playing-/ stake opportunities8. Variable stake amount9. Sensory product design10.Near wins


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The ten dimensions

1. Event frequencyUnit of time between stake, gambling result and next stake opportunity.

2. Interval of paybackPeriod of time between gambling result and notification of payment or actual receipt of payment.


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> 6 days

> 24 hrs

≤ 6 days

> 1 hr

≤ 24 hrs

> 10 min

≤ 1 hr

> 3 min

≤ 10 min

> 1 min

≤ 3 min

> 15 sec

≤ 1 min

> 5 sec

≤ 15 sec

≤ 5 sec

0 1.25 2.5 3.75 5 6.25 7.5 8.75 10

> 6 days

> 24 hrs

≤ 6 days

> 1 hr

≤ 24 hrs

> 10 min

≤ 1 hr

> 3 min

≤ 10 min

> 1 min

≤ 3 min

> 15 sec

≤ 1 min

> 5 sec

≤ 15 sec

≤ 5 sec

0 1.25 2.5 3.75 5 6.25 7.5 8.75 10

The ten dimensions

3. JackpotAn extraordinary top prize typically in the form of a large amount of money formed by the accumulation of previous bets.

4. Continuity of playing Period of time during which it is possible to gamble without interruption.


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non existent

≥ 0 $

< 100 $

≥ 100 $

< 1.000 $

≥ 1.000 $

< 10.000 $

≥ 10.000 $ < 50.000

$

≥ 50.000 $

< 100.000

$

≥ 100.000 $

< 1 Mio. $

≥ 1 Mio. $

0 1.25 2.5 4 6 7.5 8.75 10

≤ 5 minof continuous gambling

> 5 min

≤ 30 minof continuous gambling

> 30 min

≤ 1 hourof continuous gambling

> 1 hour

≤ 3 hrsof continuous gambling

> 3 hrsof continuous

gambling

0 2.5 5 7.5 10

The ten dimensions

5. Chance of winning a profit

The probability of realizing a profit with each game.

6. AvailabilityPossibility of accessing gambling opportunities.


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0% > 0 % ≤ 0,1 %

> 0,1 % ≤ 0,5 %

> 0,5 % ≤ 1 %

> 1 % ≤ 5 %

> 5 % ≤ 10 %

> 10 % ≤ 25

> 25%

0 1,25 2.5 4 6 7.5 8,75 10

Gambling

opportunitieswithin a

radius of > 100 km

Gambling

opportunitieswithin a radius

from> 25 km to ≤ 100 km

Gambling


from > 10 km to ≤ 25 km

Gambling

opportunities

within a radius from> 1 km to ≤ 10 km

Gambling


of ≤ 1 km

Gambling

opportunitiesat home / workplace

0 2.5 4 6 7.5 10

The ten dimensions

7. Multiple playing-/ stake opportunitiesOpportunity to play several stakes at the same time (e.g. betting on several roulette numbers) or to take part in several gambling opportunities at the same time.

8. Variable stake amountExtent to which gamblers can choose or modify their stake amounts while playing.2013-10-01


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no multiple playing opportunity

and no multiple stake opportunity

multiple playing opportunities or multiple stake opportunities

multiple playing opportunities and multiple stake

opportunities

0 5 10

no variable (= fixed) stake amount

variable stake, limited stake amount

variable stake,unlimited stake amount

0 5 10

The ten dimensions

9. Sensory product designAuditory and visual effects.

10. Near winsResults when a gambler supposes to almost win (to miss the profit narrowly; a near win).


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non-existent auditory or visual effects exist auditory and visual effects exist 0 5 10

non-existent un-intentionally created, occurring by chance

intentionally created by supplier/ producer,

occurring more frequently than random

0 5 10

Weights of the dimensions

Some dimensions may be more important than others in increasing the risk of potential of the gambling product. Experts were asked to assign weights for each parameter regarding their risk potential.

The weights were standardized:- from 0 (of no importance) to 10 (of very high importance).

Overall risk potential: multiplying the weight of each dimension by the score on that dimension and adding up the weighted scores of all ten dimensions. - range from 0 (lowest) to 620 (highest).


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5. Score


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6. Classificationof gambling products

Risk potential classification of gambling products into five categories:


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7. Visualization

1.Scorecard Suitable for quantitative

assessments during the analysis of potentials and risks.

For the estimation of product- and performance-ideas.

For the quantitative evaluation of potential and risk analyses.

2. Bar diagram Analyse and compare the

dimensions.2013-10-01


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8. Example

„Bet-for-soccer“ (fictitious example)

National league: 24 teams that play in 12 matches in different cities on each Saturday.Simultaneous betting on all games allowed.For each match three outcomes (team A wins/ team B wins/ tie).Possible to bet all three outcomes at the same time.Chance of winning a profit and the amount of a possible profit depend on the quotes.Minimum stake $1, maximum $100 per each match.No jackpot.Webpage: only visual effects.


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Example


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Example

Risk potential: rated with a score of approximately 5,97(resulting by dividing the total score 370 by 62)

„bet-for-soccer“ : moderate in tendency to high.


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Result Score Risk category

Risk potential

1 - 124 > 0 - ≤ 2 A lowest125 - 248 > 2 - ≤ 4 B low249 – 372 > 4 - ≤ 6 C moderate373 - 496 > 6 - ≤ 8 D high497 - 620 > 8 - ≤ 10 E highest

Example

Score card showing the risk potential of the fictitious sport betting game.

Bar chart


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9.Conclusion

ASTERIG measures the possible dimensions of risk potential of gambling products on the basic of numeric scores.

Allowes a comparison to be drawn between the addiction potentials of different gambling products.

Hightlights where the specific risk potential of each specific gambling product lie.


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10. Future directions

An indication of the classification of the risk potential of gambling products could be placed on vouchers, in gambling locations or in the computer screen.

Visual display: Visualization of the possible risk for becoming addicted.

Access and compare risk potentials.

ASTERIG may help to provide a systematic, objective way to access the risk potential of gambling products and contribute to develop policies that balance access to gambling for entertainment with minimizing the risk of gambling disorders.


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Imprint

Prof. Dr. Dr. Franz W. Peren

Prof. Dr. Reiner Clement

Grantham-Allee 2-853757 Sankt Augustin • Germany

fon +49 (0) 3212 / 135 0946 fax +49 (0) 3212 / 135 0946

www.forschung-gluecksspiel.de [email protected]

Thank you for your attention


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i nternational r esearch i nstitute for g ambling and g aming p rof. d r. d r. p eren a ssessment t...

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