i know that i don’t know what you do informational asymmetry from the insurer’s point of view...
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I know that I don’t know what you doInformational asymmetry from the insurer’s point of view
Orsolya RétallérCorvinus University of Budapest
Theoretical background
TÁMOP-4.2.2/B-10/1-2010-0023
Informational asymmetry in the insurance market
• Competitive market – single period(Rotschild and Stiglitz, 1976)
• Monopol market – single period(Stiglitz, 1977)
• Competitive market – multi period(Cooper and Hayes, 1987 and Kuntreuther and Pauly, 1985)
• Monopol market – multi period(Dionne, 1983 and Dionne and Lassere, 1985)
My goal:
Making adverse se
lection visi
ble
Assumptions
TÁMOP-4.2.2/B-10/1-2010-0023
General Assumptions
• No influence on the risk• Insurance is not mandatory• Insurer is in monopol position• Initial number of policyholders• Policyholders are not distinguished• Insured asset worth 1• Maximum number of losses per year: 1• Amount of loss is independent from the number of losses• 10 period of time
Model structure
TÁMOP-4.2.2/B-10/1-2010-0023
Permanent data
• Continuous Risk• Type of Risk• Discrete Risk
Period-dependent data
• Policyholder Dummy• Presumed Risk• Loss Dummy• Amount of Loss• Actual Risk
A series of simulations
Initial number of policyholders: 1,000
Premium principle: net premium principle
Maximal risk: 100%
Premium tolerance: 5%
TÁMOP-4.2.2/B-10/1-2010-0023
Initial Frequencies Distribution of
Amount of Losses
Moral Hazard Policyholder’s Risk
Assumption
Adverse Selection Model
A series of simulations
TÁMOP-4.2.2/B-10/1-2010-0023
Initial Frequencies Distribution of
Amount of Losses
Moral Hazard Policyholder’s Risk
Assumption
Adverse Selection Model
• Not specified1• 80-5-5-5-5%2• 5-5-5-5-80%3
A series of simulations
TÁMOP-4.2.2/B-10/1-2010-0023
Initial Frequencies Distribution of
Amount of Losses
Moral Hazard Policyholder’s Risk
Assumption
Adverse Selection Model
A series of simulations
• Bernoulli1• Pareto2• Gamma3• Lognormal4
TÁMOP-4.2.2/B-10/1-2010-0023
Initial Frequencies Distribution of
Amount of Losses
Moral Hazard Policyholder’s Risk
Assumption
Adverse Selection Model
• No moral hazard1• Significant moral hazard2
A series of simulations
TÁMOP-4.2.2/B-10/1-2010-0023
Initial Frequencies Distribution of
Amount of Losses
Moral Hazard Policyholder’s Risk
Assumption
Adverse Selection Model
• Aware of the risk1• Developing over time2
A series of simulations
TÁMOP-4.2.2/B-10/1-2010-0023
H4H1 H2H3The number of policyholders is
decreasing over time.
The premium is increasing over time.The cumulative profit for 10
periods is negative.
The lower the discrete risk is, the faster the group terminates the contract.
Hypotheses
TÁMOP-4.2.2/B-10/1-2010-0023
ResultsInitial Frequencies
1 2 3 4 50
2
4
6
8
10
Fall-out by typesNot specified initial
frequencies
Type
Num
ber
of
peri
ods
1 2 3 4 50
2
4
6
8
10
Fall-out by types80-5-5-5-5%
Type
Num
ber
of
peri
ods
1 2 3 4 50
2
4
6
8
10
Fall-out by types5-5-5-5-80%
Type
Num
ber
of
peri
ods
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100
200
400
600
800
1000
Number of PolicyholdersBernoulli Distribution
Number of periods
Num
ber
of
Policyhold
ers
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100
200
400
600
800
1000
Number of PolicyholdersGamma Distribution
Number of periods
Num
ber
of
Policyhold
ers
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100
200
400
600
800
1000
Number of PolicyholdersPareto Distribution
Number of periods
Num
ber
of
Policyhold
ers
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100
200
400
600
800
1000
Number of PolicyholdersLognormal Distribution
Number of periods
Num
ber
of
Policyhold
ers
ResultsDistribution of Amount of Losses
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
PremiumNo Moral Hazard
Number of periods
Pre
miu
m
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
PremiumSignificant Moral Hazard
Number of periods
Pre
miu
m
ResultsMoral Hazard
TÁMOP-4.2.2/B-10/1-2010-0023
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10750
800
850
900
950
1000
Number of PolicyholdersAware of the Risk
Number of periods
Num
ber
of
Policyhold
ers
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10750
800
850
900
950
1000
Number of PolicyholdersDeveloping over time
Number of periods
Num
ber
of
Policyhold
ers
ResultsPolicyholders’ Risk Assumptions
TÁMOP-4.2.2/B-10/1-2010-0023
H1The number of policyholders is decreasing over time.
Results of Hypotheses
TÁMOP-4.2.2/B-10/1-2010-0023
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10750
800
850
900
950
1000
Number of PolicyholdersAware of the Risk
Number of periods
Num
ber
of
Policyhold
ers
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10750
800
850
900
950
1000
Number of PolicyholdersDeveloping over time
Number of periods
Num
ber
of
Policyhold
ers
ResultsPolicyholders’ Risk Assumptions
TÁMOP-4.2.2/B-10/1-2010-0023
H1The number of policyholders is decreasing over time.
Results of Hypotheses
TÁMOP-4.2.2/B-10/1-2010-0023
H2The premium is increasing over time.
Results of Hypotheses
TÁMOP-4.2.2/B-10/1-2010-0023
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 100.47
0.48
0.49
0.5
0.51
0.52
0.53
0.54
0.55
0.56
0.57
Premiumwhen the policyholders’ risk
assumption is developing over time
Number of periods
Pre
miu
m
TÁMOP-4.2.2/B-10/1-2010-0023
H2The premium is increasing over time.
Results of Hypotheses
TÁMOP-4.2.2/B-10/1-2010-0023
H3The cumulative profit for 10 periods is negative.
Results of Hypotheses
TÁMOP-4.2.2/B-10/1-2010-0023
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Profitwhen the majority of the policyholders
is in the low risk type
Number of periods
Pro
fit
TÁMOP-4.2.2/B-10/1-2010-0023
H3The cumulative profit for 10 periods is negative.
Results of Hypotheses
TÁMOP-4.2.2/B-10/1-2010-0023
H4The lower the discrete risk is, the faster the group terminates the contract.
Results of Hypotheses
TÁMOP-4.2.2/B-10/1-2010-0023
ResultsInitial Frequencies
1 2 3 4 50
2
4
6
8
10
Fall-out by typesNot specified initial
frequencies
Type
Num
ber
of
peri
ods
1 2 3 4 50
2
4
6
8
10
Fall-out by types80-5-5-5-5%
Type
Num
ber
of
peri
ods
1 2 3 4 50
2
4
6
8
10
Fall-out by types5-5-5-5-80%
Type
Num
ber
of
peri
ods
H4The lower the discrete risk is, the faster the group terminates the contract.
Results of Hypotheses
TÁMOP-4.2.2/B-10/1-2010-0023
Conclusions
TÁMOP-4.2.2/B-10/1-2010-0023
• Adverse selection might have major influences on the• Number of policyholders• Premium• Loss expenses• Premium income• Profit
• Gender directive – role of adverse selection is enhancing• Simulations as tools for observing adverse selection
?
To download my paper and model please visit:
TÁMOP-4.2.2/B-10/1-2010-0023
https://sites.google.com/site/orsiretaller/kutatas-research