I. Energy

US EIA

• World energy consumption projected to rise 53% from 2008 to 2035

• Greatest projected increase in non-OECD countries (85% vs. 18% in OECD countries)

• What is the OECD?

I. Energy

• Energy use in non-OECD Asia (incl. India & China) to more than double by 2035

US EIA

I. Energy

A. Conventional1. Fossil Fuels

a. Oil• Transportation, electricity generation, heating• World’s dominant source of energy for past

several decades• Expected to remain important for next 20 years

- Predicted change: 3429% of total energy consumption through 2035

• Greatest consumption by OECD nations, but gap closing

• 1999 – Non-OECD nations consumed 58% as much as OECD nations

• 2030 – Projected to use ~90% as much• Most of increase from transportation sector

(few alternative fuel sources)

I. Energy

A. Conventional1. Fossil Fuels

a. Oil• Benefits

• Readily available• High energy density• Inexpensive• Existing technology & infrastructure

• Concerns• Combustion releases pollutants (CO2, NOx,

SOx, PM)• Extraction harms environment• Accidental releases, especially in ocean• Energy security – US imports 60% of oil• Long-term availability (unconventional sources)

Unconventional Sources• Oil sands• Extra-heavy oil• Coal-to-liquids• Gas-to-liquids• Shale oil• Biofuels

US EIA

I. Energy

A. Conventional1. Fossil Fuels

b. Coal• Electricity generation (60% of global coal use, 2008)• Main fuel source in China for industry• Use expected to grow, mostly fueled by Asia,

especially China (78% of global growth) and India• Benefits

• Inexpensive• Abundant, easy to recover• Requires minimal processing• Existing technology & infrastructure

• Concerns• Environmental degradation from mining• Requires extensive transportation system (rail)• Combustion pollutants (CO2, PM, Hg, NOx, SOx)• Counter: “Clean coal” (requires more processing)

US EIA

I. Energy

A. Conventional1. Fossil Fuels

c. Natural gas (methane)• Use predicted to grow almost as fast as coal• Equaled coal (BTU basis) in 1999• Increase fueled by price, environmental concerns,

energy security issues, market deregulation• Benefits

• Inexpensive• Abundant, easy to recover• Existing technology & infrastructure• Burns relatively cleanly (little PM, etc.), almost no

solid waste• High efficiency (90% vs. 27% for electricity)• Energy security – US produces 85% of demand vs.

40% for oil• Concerns

• Greenhouse gas• Adequate long-term supply

I. Energy

A. Conventional1. Fossil Fuels

d. Gas (methane) hydrates• Worldwide reserves estimated at up to 100,000

trillion cubic feet of gas (10,000 Gt carbon), twice the carbon in all other fossil fuel reserves on earth

• Located beneath marine sediments at 300-500 m depth

• Common off SE US, Siberia, Alaska• Benefits

• Extremely abundant• Existing infrastructure for distribution• Burns relatively cleanly (little PM, etc.), almost no

solid waste• High efficiency (90% vs. 27% for electricity)• Energy security – US has extensive reserves

• Concerns• Greenhouse gas• Damage to sea floor• Catastrophic effects of massive release

I. Energy

A. Conventional2. Nuclear

• Derived from splitting ("fissioning“) of uranium atoms• Uranium mined, processed to increase fissionable material,

made into fuel rods• Uranium atoms split inside reactor, generate heat steam

electricity• World capacity projected to rise from 379 GW in 2007 to 592 GW

in 2035• Highest growth projected for developing world, especially Asia

• Benefits• Clean (few pollutants or GHGs)• Relatively inexpensive• Existing technology & infrastructure• Compact fuel & waste (high energy density – 1 lb of U =

3.5 million lbs of coal)• Energy security – US has extensive reserves

• Concerns• Safety – Possibility of accidents• Strategic risks – Material stolen and used to create weapon• Waste disposal – Contamination of ground water, soil,

animals, plants, people• GHG production from mining & transportation of uranium

US EIA

US EIA

I. Energy

B. Renewable• Sources either can’t be used up or are replenished

quickly through natural processes• In CA, eligible renewable energy sources include

1) Biomass and waste2) Geothermal3) Solar4) Small hydroelectric5) Wind energy

• Use for electricity generation expected to increase by 128.5% (3%/year) worldwide between 2007 and 2035

• 18% of total electricity generation in 2007 23% in 2035• Growth in renewable energy resources expected to be

constrained by moderate fossil fuel prices• Renewable energy development expected to be

increases in hydroelectric (54%), esp. in non-OECD Asia & Brazil, and wind (26%), esp. in China