Publication: The Straits Times, p A40 & A41 Date: 8 January 2011 Headline: History-making year ahead

Will opposition rise to the challenge? I History-making

year ahead

Will thc be a contest?

2 AT 86, Mr S R Nathan is the oldest president Singapore has had since independence, and the second-oldest office-holder after 87- year-old Minister Men-

tor Lee Kuan Yew. Will he retire or stand for a

third term? Although he has not given anything away, this has not stopped the spaculative buzz over a possible successor.

Names.bandied about include Speaker of Parliament Abdullah Tarmugi, Senior Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Zainul Abidin Rasheed, former deputy prime minister and chairman of Singa- pore Press Holdings Tony Tan, and Senior Ministers Goh Chok Tong and S. Jayakumar.

It is st i l l an open question if there will be a presidential elec- tion, considering that there has been no contest since 1993. Presi- dent Nathan was unopposed in 1999 and 2005.

Given the very restrictive eligi- bility criteria - he or she must have been a former top of- fice-holder or previously helmed a $100 million company - poten- tial candidates are few and far be- tween.

This explained the excitement on the Internet in 2008 when former NTUC Income chief execu- tive turned civil society activist Tan Kin Lian, 62, expressed his willingness to contest the presi- dency, if 100,000 Singaporeans signed an online petition support- ing him.

But he garnered only 1,000 sig- natures, and in September 2009 he said that he was no longer inter- ested in entering politics.

In an e-mail interview with In- sight, he indicated that his posi- tionhas not changed. "I do not ex- pect more signatures if I were to reopen the petition now," he wrote. "In general, Singaporeans are too scared to be seen to sup- port an alternative, even to put their names down on a petition."

But he said he hoped that there would be a contest for the presi- dency, "so that the views of the people can be heard".

1 A FIVE-MAN committee formedlast October is la- bouring over how and where to draw the elec- toral boundaries. Its re- portis eagerly awaited.

It must carve out at least 12 single-member constituen- cies, or SMCs, up from the cur- rent nine, and downsize the bigger group representation constituen- cies, or GRCs. There are now nine five-seat and five six-seat GRCs.

With these changes, including the move to ensure at least nine opposition MPs in Parliament, the stakes have never been higher.

By installing an unprecedented number of non-PAP MPs in Parlia- ment (18 including nine Nominat- ed MPs), the election is seen as a watershed event for both the rul- ing patty and the opposition.

The opposition parties have sig- nalled that they will contest al- most all constituencies including PAP bastions such as Marine Pa- rade and Tanjong Pagar GRCs, helmed by Senior Minister Goh Chok Tong and Minister Mentor Lee Kuau Yew, respectively.

"If every seat is contested, then the 'big gun' midsters are locked down in their GRCs," notes Singa- pore Management University law lecturer Eugene Tan. "You won't have them wandering around the island, which was a tremendous advantage that the PAP had."

But it remains to be seen if the opposition can make the most of the electoral concessions. The big question, argues Dr Gillian Koh of the Institute of Polfcy Studies, is whether they can "rise to the occa- sion and take hold of the the op- portunities presented".

The new Reform Party headed by Mr Kenneth Jeyaretnam, son of the late opposition stalwart J. B. Jeyaretnam, has attracted atten- tion 4 roping in a number of bet- A ter-educated candidates.

But opposition infighting has reared its ugly head again. Mr Chiam See Tong's spats with some Singapore People's Party members have not gone down well with the public.

Moreover, his plan to hand over the candidacy of his Potong Pasir ward to wife Lina, so he can contest near- by Bishan-Toa Payoh GRC, is seen as a big gamble.

The GE will answer in- triguing questions about the voting disposition of post-65 Singaporeans who form half the electorate, up from a third in 2006. Will they rock the boat

e or will they keep the status quo?

The conventional wisdom is 1

What will this year have in store for Singapore? As Insight gazes into the crystal ball, eight events and issues loom large.

The question remains: I

Will Mr Nathan retire or will he stand for a third

term?

that they want more political liber- alisation and are less bound to the ruling party because they have not suffered privationsand hardship.

Another big question mark hangs over Generation Y voters who are now in their 20s and 30s. They have been depicted as politi- cally apathetic and self-centred. So when they enter the polling booth, how will they decide?

Yet another poser is the chal- lenge of the new media. Will it be the wild eatd that swings crucial votes?

Some local socio-political web- sites have become more estab- lished, and both PAP and opposi- tion politicians are avidly testing their use of Facebook, Twitter and YonTube to reach the masses.

Will new me& catdyse politi- cal change as it did for US Presi- dent Baraclc Obama? Or will its im- pact be confined only to netizens and make hardly a ripple with heartlanders?

FOR the first time in the Republic's hiitory, two elections are likely to be held within months of each other, the only question being which will come first - the general election (GE) or the presidential election?

The exact timing of both . elections is a closely guarded secret. But the GE must be held by February 2012, and if there is a contest to pick a new head of state, the Constitution requires that it take place between June and August this year. All eyes will be on the People's Action Party's

new slate for a gIimpse of the fourth generation

leadership, if not the next prime minister. Ditto with the opposition Iine-up - will it throw

up a charismatic leader who will seize the public imagination? Can the new crop of better-qualified candidates mount a credible challenge?

Throw in an "election year Budget" with its wealth-sharing goodies, mix it with the hot issues of the day such as the

influx of foreigners and the rising cost of living, and you will have a year in which - in the words of German thinker Thomas Mann - "everything is politics".

theArtsLuiTockYew,49;Fulinis- Goh Chok Tong assumed the ter for Community Development, helm of the country in 1990 at

lion, instead of the initially pro- jected $3 billion deficit.

Hence the widespread expecta- tion that Finance Minister Thar- man Shanmugaratnarn will play political Santa Claus when he un- veils the Budget next month.

But Budget observers are split over what Singaporeans can ex- pect.

As the two IRs will remain huge sources of tax revenue in the coming years, there is scope to reduce the tax hurden on indi- viduals and companies, argues Holland-Bukit Timah GRC MP Liang Eng Hwa.

"Compared to Hong Kong, our tax rates can still go a little low- er," says the vice-chairman of the Government Parliamentary Committee for Finance.

For Singaporeans grappling with the rising cost of living, he adds, it would help if there are some adjustments in Workfare, reductions in road tax, and con- servancy and other rebates.

However, some economists disagree that income tax rates should be lowered further as they believe that the economy does

not need the stimulus. They note that inflation is ex-

pected to hit 4 per cent by the year end. As two-thirds of Singa- poreans do not pay direct taxes, they say that an income tax cut will benefit only the high-income earners.

As Dr Chua sees it: "With the growing concern about income in- equality, the money will probably be spent on expanding social safe- ty nets for lower-income house- holds."

Several MPs would like the Workfare Income Supplement scheme to be expanded to cover more low-wage Singaporeans.

Currently, only workers earn- ing below $1,700 a month are eli- gible for the supplement. The ceil- ing was raised from $1,500 in the 2010 Budget.

Veteran backbencher Inderjit Singh has asked for the ceiling to be raised further to $2,000.

Bat whatever the goodies doled out, the Government is like- ly to return a portion of the sur- plus to the country's reserves.

"We need to share some, but we also need to save some for an uncertain future," says Mr Liang.

WIII me Buaget address the income gap?

TVUI UI ~ ~ I I G I ~ U U I I Youth and Sports ~ i v g Bala- 49, his deputy Lee Hsien Loong, leadership unveiled khrishnan, 49; Minister for Law then 38, was the obvious succes-

and Home Affairs K. Shanmn- sor. gam, 51; Transport Minister Ray- But the current Deputy Prime

year, the ques- mond Lim, 51; Education M ' i e r Ministers - MI Wong Kan Seng, tion Of who wil! sue- Ng Eng Hen, 52; and Second Min- 64, and Mr Teo Chee Hean, 56 - teed Prime Mllllster ister for Finance and Transport are by no stretch of the imagina- Lee Hsien Loong and ~i,,, H~~~ H ~ ~ , n. . . . .. . . tion young guns.

BONANZA budgets have usually been un- veiledby the PAP Gov- ernment in election years.

In 2001. $2 billion 'ls - take As of now, there is yet to he a The fourth PM will not have on new urgency. clear front runner for the office of the luxury of a long apprentice- Mr Leer s', who has Prime Minister, anunfamiliq situ- ship; it is likely that he or she will

~ ~ ~ ~ ~ a ~ ~ ~ i ~ ~ , " $ $ i ation for a government which ab- serve two to three electoral terms before assuming the post of Zt 2 ~ , h ~ $ ~ ~ ; ~ ~ ~ ~ h o % z g k e r Prime Mhiter p r l n u inter pares.

PM Lee has said that he wants next generation of leaders". to find a team that can take

When he introduces a new , A - - A -

charge after two more elections, batch of candidates for the polls, when he turns 69.

I worth of tax breaks were doled out; in

2006, Singaporeans received up to $800 each in a surplus-shar- ing scheme. That was also the year that the Workfare Bonus - which gave low-wage workers handouts to encourage them to stay employed - was unveiled.

This year, coffers are filling up thanks to a spectacular economic rebound and new sources of reve- nue like the two integrated re- soas (I&).

Bank of America Merrill Lynch economist Chua Hak Bin reckons the two IRs will contribute $1.38 billion in taxes, duties and levies. Citi economist Kit Wei Zheng es- timates the Government will have a fiscal surplus of $3.5 bil-

political observers will keep an eye on those with ministerial po- i tentii. I

Stlll, it is early days yet, and '* politiA reputations can hen* a be made almost overnieht. SMU's

The PAP customarily refreshes ' about a quarter of its ranks with 20 to 25 new candidates in every -1

Mr Tan points out &at in the w 1970s, two young Senior Minis-

ters of State were considered the election. Would the fourth PM the o$ice of hrrc: brightest talents with the most po- spring from this cohort? tential to lead the country.

Expected to form the nucleus j@mk&r, One was Dr Tan Ene Liane. of the fourth generation leader- situafion fir a who lea politics in 1980. %e otc- ship are younger ministers in the current Cabinet - Minister for In- goueA which formation, Communications and abh0m s~rp t ' tk .

er was Mr Goh, who went on to become the second ~ & e Minis- ter.

Source: The Straits Times O Singapore Press Holdings Limited. Permission required for reproduction.

LV SMU PRODUCTIVITY PUSH Will it slacken?

5 A YEAR ago, produc- tivity was the national buzzword. Raising effi- ciency and reducing the reliance on cheap foreign labour was de- creed to be the way to

go for local enterprise in the new global economy.

This year, productivity may end up on the back-burner as com- panies seek to make the most of the economic momentum.

As Singapore Business Federa- tion president Theng Theng Dar notes, sentiment on the ground is very positive with businesses rank- ing continued growth and over- seas expansion at the top of their new year agenda.

As the labour market tightens, their main worry is the rising for-

Publication: The Straits Times, p A40 & A41 Date: 8 January 2011 Headline: History-making year ahead

eign worker levy, which will make it more expensive and harder to hire non-Singaporeans.

"If you do not have the capaci- ty to fulfil an order, the customer walks," warns Mr Theng.

"Most businesses are saying, let me have the workers to fulfil orders right now."

Bank of America Merrill Lynch's Dr Chua thinks it is likely that the second stage of the levy increase - it is scheduled to in-

crease this month, and again in Ju- ly - may be tweaked, or delayed, to give businesses some breathing space.

"They planned for the levy in- crease to be phased in over 2'/1 years, but the extent of the eco- nomic rebound and wage pres- sures now is a surprise.

"There is a case to be made that some recalibration is neces- sary," he adds. "But I see it hap- pening only after elections."

After all, the levy increase, cou- pled with a tightening of immigra- tion policy, was meant to reassure Singaporeans uneasy with the in- flux of foreigners.

It does not look like productivi- ty will be shelved quietly.

This year, the Productivity Fund Administration Board will start to dole out the $2 b i o n the Government has set aside to boost productivity over the next dec- ade.

WORKERS NEEDED "If you do not have the capacity to fulfil an order, the customer walks." Singapore Businw F e d d o n p d e n t Theng lbeng Dar

An Inflow of forrlgnm over the M few yeam pushed the population to over five million, and th impact was felt awynbre. To addm the r i s i l public diacontsnt. the Govrmment tooh a arks of m e a s m to reassure Singapoream that they m e first. ST FlLE PHOTO

E r pkrte Lome prkes adipred the pmiour puh in 1996, ad COV levels for HDB flats reached histotic h i i . ovmmeal responded with cooling measures, and the ilprct has started to b fdl by the market. ST FlLE PHOTO

PROPERTY MARKET cent to $23,000 from the third ouarter. With the

How to cool it without crashing it

I LAST year, property prices skyrocketed to new heights, trigger- ing off much unhappi- ness among citizens who failed to achieve their Singapore dream

of o&g their own home. As private home prices

eclipsed the previous 1996 peak and the cash over valuation (COV) levels for Housing Board flats reached historic highs, the Government unveiled two sets of cooling measures.

The im~ac t of the latest

But prices of public housing re- sale flats are still going up. Wit the region awash with liquidity and buoyant economic momen- tum, experts see the upward trend of the property market con- tinuing into 2011.

DTZ's head of South-east Asia research Chua Chor Hoon be- lieves that the latest housing mar- ket statistics will determine whe- ther a new round of cool i i mea- sures is forthcoming.

"Even if prices remain stable, if the sales of new homes contin- ues to be very high then the con- cern is that a lot of it may not be genuine demand," she says.

But International Property Ad-

-egion awash with liquidity and buqyant economic momentum, experts see the upward trend of the PrnpertY nzarket continuing into 2011.

jority of home-owning Singapore- ans for whom rising property prices are a boon. This year, potential house buy-

ers will continue to agonise and may even vent their ire at the bal-

round, in August, has started to visor chief executive Ku Swee lot box. The Government will con- be felt by the market: HDB said Yong warns that another round tinue to wrestle with the classic the median COV paid in the of cooling measures risks being conundrum of how to cool the fourth quarter had fallen 23 per overkill, as they hurt the vast ma- market without crashing it.

TIES WITH MALAYSIA Building bridges across the Strait

OFFICIALS from Sin- gapore and Malaysia have just wrapped up the implementation de- tails of the Malayan Railway land agree- ment and submitted a

c u u r ro their respective govern- ments.

Both countries are on track to resolve a 20-year-old dispute over the Points of Agreement (POA) regarding Malayan Railway land and the relocation of the Tan- jong Pagar railway station.

The original POA, signed in 1990 between the two countries, had been mired in disagreement over implementation and become a perennial thorn in bilateral rela- tions.

Under the agreement reached

in May last year, the existing Tan- jong Pagar railway station will move to Woodlands. In Septem- ber, both sides agreed to a land swop deal in which the land vacat- ed by the relocation of the rail- way would be exchanged for six parcels of land in the Marina South and Ophir-Rochor area.

Yet another bilateral issue is set to be settled quietly. The first of two water supply agreements Singapore has with Malaysia will expire this year.

With no plans to renew the agreement, Singapore's water- works in lohor will be handed back to Malaysia free of charge.

Tbis is in line with the Govern- ment's god for the country to be self-sufficient through desalii- tion plants, Newater, and an ex- pansion of the number and size of its reservoirs

"Water issues and the POA have, been the two bugbears in Singapore-Malaysia ties for dec- ades," notes Mr Yang Razali Kas-

sim, a senior fellow with the S. Rajaratnam School of Internation- al Studies, Nanyang Technologi- cal University.

"The current defusion of these two core issues does suggest we are entering a new era in ties not fundamentally defined by the ten- sions of the past."

But just as old scores are set- tled, new obstacles appear. The diplomatic cables leaked last month recording top Singaporean diplomats' barbed comments about Malaysia may have a ripple effect in bilateral ties.

Although MI Yang Razali be- lieves that the two countries "will close ranks again after some steam is let out", he notes that the WikiLeaks cables have shown that bilateral relations are now subject not just to the actions of either country, but by the whims of external players.

"lt is this kind of new uncer- tainty that we should expect in years to come."

I FOREIGNERS years to maintain the foreign com- ponent of the local workforce at

Can a political hot the current level of one-third. The issue, however, shows no

potato be down? sign of abating as it continues to fire up Internet forums and spark

AN INFLOW Of for- animated if not angry conversa- eigners over the last tions in coffee shops andthe cock- few years pushed the tail ~i~,.,,it .- -- - - - . population to over Blaming the Government for five and *he opening the floodgates and failing v i m ~ c t was felt every- to anticipate the consequences of where - from over- fast- aced immimation. o~oosi-

crowding on MRT trains to Soar- tion barties ha& decl.&z that ingproperty prices; fromjobcom- they will make the influx of for- petition to littering in the neigh- eigners a tou issue during cam- bourhood.

To address the rising public dis- content,-the Government took a series of measures to reassure Sin- gaporeans that they came first.

Subsidies in education, housing and health care were tweaked to reflect a wider difference between locals and foreigners, and nullions were poured into efforts to inte- grate newcomers into the social fabric.

The granting of permanent resi- dencies (PRs) was tightened: be- tween June 2009 and June last year, only 7,800 PRs were grant- ed, compared to 55,000 in the pre- vious 12-month period.

The foreign worker levy will be raised in stages over the next two

P&~W. - The Government's position is

that while foreigners are needed to sustain economic growth, the welfare and interests of citizens must take precedence.

To allay their concerns, a new National Population and Talent Di- vision (NPTD), under the Prime Minister's Office, began work on Jan 1. Headed by Deputy Prime Minister Wong Kan Seng, it will coordinate immigration andpopu- lation policies.

How will the Government meet the needs of the growing economy and placate a citizenry feeling overwhelmed by foreigners? How it seeks to strike a balance will be one of the long-running stories of the year.

Source: The Straits Times O Singapore Press Holdings Limited. Permission required for reproduction.