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kinh te thj trudng moi n6i va dflng phat tri~nla 130 tang 11 di~m phfln tram so voi nam2005 Dang hiu y la trong llam 2006 ty Jetang trVdng xuat khfru ella cae nen kinh tephat tri6n dii eao han so voi ty ]~ timg trvongnh1tp kh1l11d1ioi tae dong eua slj gia tangmanh trong t6ng eilu 0 die nen linh tedangphtit tri6n eong voi slj YElUdi ella t6ng ciiutieu dung va dilu tv 0 My (d1iOitae d(ing ellachinh saeh tien t~ thilt eh(it) ket voi sV giamgia ella d6ng Dola My Thea Ngan hang ThElgioi (WB) trong nua dilu ella nam 2006 xuatkh~u ella My dii tang 13 (tinh theo nam)tang tOi 6 ditm phiin tram so voi eung kyna III 2005 Cung trong thiJi gian d6 xuatkhampu ella Nh1ttBan eung dii tang 10 Trangs6 cae nen kinh te dang phat tri~n xuat

kbpoundu ella Irung Qll( cun~[rll tilT~Lj~ ~~I(

trong cung thai ky nell tren ShU ~25n21Tl Ulfltnidng liE-m 11Cnaln 200G Frunp C)u(c CLrulqt qua fl1y vd irO thiLnh nt-I hin_h 1 co nlC

xuiit hha thrJ2 tren thegiSi

Nam 2006 Jitnam thu 4 lien tiElfgiti CIOtat eiLcae nh6m hang dude ~u6n brin tronpthltdng mai quae te cUlltiing ac iJiU j SItgia tiing manh cllagiri ddu ma ua him louTheo Il1F trong vong 8 th[il1g dril Jarr2006 giil Jilll gicl(gtngay trung binh Ji tarftOi 16 Vil dat Wi mile k5 he 70USDtbling vio diiLl th6ng 82006 Suo gi~tang Il1-nh eua clu ve dflu lTIO (kinh te t1u~gioi tang trVfJng rl1ltnh dJc biet lit kiLh t(N19 va Trung Quoe) ket hqp val ihlllg gifJndo~n cua nguon cung do s~t hlfl iqp ClnguBn dilu clv tnJ va bat Sn dinh cliachinhtri (hen qnan den cltliong trL--I1 h0l JlhjJl (Iran xllng dQtLi Bang - lraen kh-jnr- belJan r(ing fJlr1lcbat 6n dinh d Nigeria ) itbay d6i trong ehinh sach ki~m sORt ngu610dilu mo (6 Venezllila Bolivia Ngl)ll ehinh saeb duO td gia ditll nO cao clla TOchue cae mi6c xuat kh1lu dim mo (OPEC) Jit nhung nGuyen nban co bn khien giadlu mo tang eao va bilt iSn djnh trong naln2006 Tuy nhien nen kinh tEl the gioi vac1llia bi tae dong llJ)nh m(it phln Ja do sjtang eao ella gift ditu mo dUCiequyet dillbboi ea ben cung va ben du dile biet Ja bencilu Thea d6 ebi phi Lang len do gia elfiu tangdvqc bu dip bdi slJ tang Jen cua tbl nhl)

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2001 2002 2003 2004 200--Khoi hidng thlidng mi quoc te - 34 53 10 74

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Cae nen kinh te thj tnidng llJ6i n6i va 30 69 108 146 Ii dang phitt trifn INhi-p khiiuCite nen kinh te phiit tri6n 09 26 40 91 6GCite nen kinh te thj tnldng moi libi va 33 61

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rnflnh V(l m[tc tRng ~-~Z~ltr0ng thd] k)7Luthtmg 0112000 den thflDg 72006 d(ic bjijt 13gift cae kin1 J00i nhli c5ng kem va nikenGia cae 100i kim loai nay diitang tOi 60-70Y trong vang 6 tulln tong cllu thang52006 sau d6 lai giarn xllong 25 vao cuoithang 62006 Bli gia tang mnh me cuadu (dae bi(t la tii Trung Quoc dtioi Utedong Clla qua trinh cong nghiijp h6a) congvOinguon cung giam st do chat hiltlngcuaqu~ng ngay mot xau thien tai dinh cong ltiiikhien cho gia kim loi liing n10nh trongniiln 2006 Cing bc1t 6n dinh vii tang girimanh trong nam 2006 (381 va dat mllch)~luc 731 USD lounce vdo thang 512006)nhung hac vri vdi cdc loai him loai hhricSII gia tang mrmh va bdt 6n dinh cIJagirivang lai la SII tich hap eua nit nhitu caenh6n tc tli ehinh tri (su bat 0n dinh dia - chinh trj 6 nhieu nOl tren the gioi nhu datrlnh bay 6 tren) kinh te (sv gia tang ellallm phat slj giarn gia mmn ella Dola My)chinh sach (ehinh saeh tang elv tru vill1geuaNga vii Iran hay ehuyeuron mot phampndu truquoe te tU Dola My sang vang cua TrungQuoe ) eho den cae yell to nhu Him ly dlluco va nhu du S11 dung vang trong eac mua l~II~i (nhli amp Tmng Quoe va An D9) ben C0nhsv thu h~p clla ngu6n cung do chi phi sinxuat eao dinh cong va kh6 khan trong vi~ctlm ra cac mo vang moi eung nln1 chinh sachkhong ban vang dlj tru clla cac ngan hangTrung ultJngtren the gi8i

Me du ca 2 nhom nuoc (eong nghi~pphat trieuron va dang ph at trieuron) da rat no IljCdam phan va co ging tim ra m9t thoa hiijpnhung do khong thong nhat atiltJcvoi nhauve vlln de trq cip nang nghiep trong nam2006 vong dam phdn Doha vt tu do hDathudng mai toan cdu dOnJi vao be tdc voinhilng iinh ht((Jng tieu etic Wi trieuron vongdam ph an tier thea Tuy dllia anh hu6ngngay tai tlnlCing m(li quae tfi nlning sti bet~( nay se co nguy co dan (ten Inat niern tinao h~ th61lg ti-niltJngmm U phliong Jam

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tang tv tuong bi10 he) va kllZl nang e~1fdJhuong thultJng mi do su bung n0 quo mllCclla cae hiep dinh tlniltJng mei Id1Uvlie vasong phultJng

Cac thj trliCtng chUng khoan quae vhO(lt ding kha thu~n Wi

Nam 2006 la nam ma cac thi tni0n[chung khoan tren the gioi tu thj tntdng 6cac ntn kinh to phat trieuron eho tOi thitntCJng 0 cae nen kinh te thj tntCJngmoi lliSih00t dong kha thu3n loi voi nhung mitetang ky lue 88-221 so voi dliu l1am 2U06va 248-1216 so voi nam 2003(51bull TangtrLtong kinh te cung voi s11gia tang eua lrjnhuan cong ty Ja nhung nhan to eltJb11quyet dinh slj tang tni6ng manh ella caethj truCJng chung khotll1 tren the gioi trongnam 2006 Ben eanh nhung nhan to 06 SUtang truong m(lnh ella cac thi trudng chltngkhoan chau A con dtiqc thue d~y mann hdisli gia tang m0nh ella dong von ntioc ngoaivoi nhling tac el(ing nhieu chitu cJOivoi ntnkinh te va doi hoi cae mioc tiep nhijn phaie6 nhung chinh sach dieu tiet ph hltJpDieuron hinh la vao euoi thang 122006 thitn(dng chung khoan Thai Lan da chao CtilOm0nh duoi tac dong ella slj rut von dochinh phll Thai ap dung eac bi~lt ph)kieurom soat elong von vao nhiim 110nche sljtang gia clla d5ng Baht)

Diiu tli tnc tiep nliCic ngoai tiep ttICgia tang

Theo dftnh gia ella Economist IntelligenceUnit flam 2006 damputu truc tiep nuoc ngoai(FDI) tren the gioi d(lt mue 1165 ty USDtang 22 so voi nam 2005 Trang d6 cacnuoc cong nghi~p phat tri~n nhijn dliqc7543 ty US]) tang 358 so voi nam 2005va cae nen kinh te thj tntdng moi nei nhi[mdultJc4106 ty usn chi tang co 28 so voinam 2005 Nhung con so nay cho thay FDIvfin ehll yeu ti)p trung ( cac nen kinh teph6t triiKn noi co moi truongallu tu (co sah(l tling eung va mtn) thui)n lltJicung voinguon nhiin llic ehat lLtqngcao

______ K_i_n_h~ethe gi6i200~ - 2~07Tiep lye tang (rLldngeao (rongruiro

Dil thj 5 Dii tti tnjc tiep ntioc ngo2i tren the giGi Thai ki 2005-2008

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Danh gia eila UNCJAD (2007) ve dClllgvon FDI tren the gioi co ph6n lac quan honTheo cd quan nay FDI toan du nam 2006tiep t1fCtang nam thu 3 lien hep va d~l 12nghin ty USD tang 34 so voi nam 2005nhltng v~n thap hdn muc kluc 14 nghinty USD vao nam 2000 Dang luu y la My diikh6i phue dli9c vi the eila minh the chfmAnh lrd Ii thanh nude tiep nhi)n FDI Ionnhat tren the gioi

Cling theo UNCTAD stt gia lang manheila dong von FDI trong nam 2006 phananh mue lang trlidng kinh te cao 6 nhieukhu vtte tren the gioi (ea eac nlioc phattri~n va dang phat tri~n) Ltli nhui)n c6ngty tang (va keo theo gia chung khoan tangeao) dii thue dly tang gia trj eila cae V1fmua Ii va sap nhap (MampA) xuyen bien gioikhien eho ty tnmg cae dong FDI Ion hdnVi(je tiep tue tli do hart eac chinh saeh d6utli va cae ehe di) thli0ng mi cung dii tiepsue them vao kEltqua nay m1)edli 6 mi)t sonttoc ehau Phi va My La Tinh co mi)t sothalv d6i Ion trong ehinh sach kinh te hltongWiViee nang eao vai tro eila nha mine eu ng

nhlt nhung thay d6i trong eac ehinh sachtnc tiep lien quan Wi cae nha d6u tli mtosngoa ho1)ccae nganh - nhat Iii cae nganhlien quan den tili nguyen thien nhien

TRIEN VQNG KINH TE THE GI61 2007

Kinh te the giGi tiep tvc tang tnidngcao nhling chilm Ii

M1)edli co nhung dtt baa Cli thpound khacnhau I1hling cae t6 chuc tai chinh quae te(nhli IMF WE __) cung nh1i tli nhan(Morgan Stanley Credit Suisse _) deu ehodng nom 2007 kinh tt th gidi se tiep tllCtang truCmg cao nhung ch~m l(Li tit 03 Mn06 di~m ph6n tram so voi nam 2006 TheoIMF nam 2007 tang trli6ng eila nen kinhte tM gioi se dt muC 49 giam 03 di~mph6n tram so voi nam 2006 Muc gidm Slitncly chu yeu se diln ra d cae neon kinh t[phat trien giam 04 di~m ph6n tram so voinam 2006 voi muc tang dt 27 Nhungtac d6ng tieu ctte eila gia d6u cao cling voichinh sach ticn t~ thitt ch1)tlaonhung nguyennhiln cd ban khien cho nel1 kinh te the gioiUingtrli0ng cham li1itrong l1am 2007

Nililng vjn ae KINH TE VA CHiNH TR THE GiGI s6 2 (130) gt(107------~----------------tf

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Nguym Hong Son

kinh te thj tru0ng moi n6i va dang phattridn giam toe trang nam 2007 Doi voiTrung Qu6c sv tang trudng eham lai ellanen kmh te eon duae quyet djnh bdi nhungbien phap hanh chinh nhitm giam dAu tuva ngan ehijn tinh tr0ng phat tridn quanong clla nen kinh te

Tang trudng kinh te the gioi vitn tiep tveehiqe c1uy td d mue eao nhung eh$m 10i sekhien cho s6 lUrjng vi~c lam mai tiep tctang tntUng ty If that nghi~p ti[p tuc giamnhung diu ch)m Iri Thea IMF d cae nenkinh te phat triampn so luqng vi~c lam moichi tang co 1 th$m chi giam a Nh$t Ban(01) Mue giam ella tj I~ tMt nghj~pcling tuang tu th$m chi gia tang nh 6 My(49 so voi 48 nam 2006)

Lun phat viin tiep tvc niim trongvong kiiim soat nhung suc ep clla nodoi vdi nhieu nen kinh te viin m~mi

Xu huang tht chat tien t~ dien ra elilngdeu CJde nen kinh te dije bi~t la d cae nenkinh te phat triampn eung voi slj eh$m Ill

qlHl vlQc lan1 giJJ11 dau tu vao nha 6 va diutj2il dung ca nhan Doi voi khu vve r1ingFura tang tnldng ella kIm vue nay con sebi anh huCJngbdi sv gia tang trong time giatrj gi8 tang (VAT) a Due va su bep tue tanggia ella Euro so voi Dola My (voi nhung tacdong tieu cue toi xuat khhu mot trangnilung c[inglue tang trudng ehinh ella kimVtiC nay)

--=======-- I ~WB Morgan Stanley Credit

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Suisse I Theo PPP

(2006) Econonlics (2006) tnfdng Team (2006)

~ 1-2007[)[)~J 200_7_2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007

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Trang khi do Ung (lIang Clla cae nenkinh te thj tru0ng mOl n6i va clang phattri~n ell) gian1 nh9 va UD-t111UC 72 (giiln101 di6m ph~n tnrn so voi nam 2006) Xettren khia eanh clia 1y tCiedi tiing truangkinh te se suy giam 6 h1u khampp cae kh u vuetrell the gioi til cae nen kinh te Trung vaDong Au eho Wi cae nen kinh te d ehau ATrung Dong va lIty Latinh d ehau ATrung Quae va An Di se vitn tiep tue cluytd duae mlic tang tudng eao (10 va 73thea thli tV)81 Tang tnidng Clla eae nuoeASEAN duqe c1i baa se cl0t mue 654(tang khcmg dang kamp so voi nam 2006 027didm phiin tram) trong dCgttang truang ellaViet Nam vitn tiep tne dllqe du bao la se amue eao Hhat trong kh6i (76) Nhung c1ubao tlen eha thay ehau A se vfln tiip tle litkhu vve phat triampn nang dong va la d~u t~utang trudng ella nen kinh te the gioi trongnam 2007 Ben e0nh niuJltlg nguyen nhanehinh k6 tren (giiid~(l va lfi suat tang cao)slitang gia cua cac d6ng tie1 1191 d1R so vCiiBola f1v cling gor ph6n k~-iiell eno crHnen

M ~tC du LAng lrHnc Cl3 C8 3 trnng Uhnkinh te 16n l)(~n Ll16 giDi (11 ~9lJ EU2tt1 va Nh1t Bzn 211) den S8 ch(lln l~inhl(ng nl(rc tang tnt0ng ClU1 ca 3 trung Lan1nay vtln tiep tlc xich 101 gan Dhau th~ hl~nsuOtic)J tue ella xu hong Uti din biing trangtang tniang giiia cae nin kinh te Wn (xcmBang J va Dr5thi 2) DSi oi My nhiing tacdong kd tren dab~t d~u tli nam 2006 thong

Bdng 6 D bao tang tr-Uampngkinh t6 the giai niim 2007 (nam)

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[0 I J~ftNgu6n IMF (2006) WB (2006) Mussa (2006) Morgan Stanley Global Economics Team

(2006) Cedit Suisse (2006)

1

trong Lang trlt(jng eLla 11el1 kinh tc the gidi(rong nam 2007 se kIlien eho mt~clam phattden thigidi grim nhe ue tip tue n6m trangtam kilil soat Tu) nhim (j mot so nttacsue tip ea yetl to ney dB vai niin kinh tevan tif[p tue manh Thea lMF nam 2007 tyl~ I~m ph at 6 cae nen kin 11laquo) phat triampn sodat muc 23 gj~m 03 so voi nam 2006Trang d6 ty 10 lam pilat ( My vfrn cao nhat29 va dat truoe CilCn11aho~eh dinh ehinhsclch nual nEl) bal Loan kl16 gili giUH vi0Cduy tri toe c1lt)Ftng lnidng 6n dinh va kiemche I~m phat 6 CgtlCn6n kinh Llthj tnidngmoi n6i va dang phiil tliampn ty IIJam phatse clt 111UC501 gial11 02 ditm phln tlihnvoi nanl 2006 rruy nhiampn ]~ln phat vantiep tUCla m6i (Ie doa dbi voi su 6n dinlkinh tc 6 chall Phi frullg va Dong Au Vfl

Trung Dong (voi mCL lam phflt theo l11u tuI 1060 )0 79)a 1 0 J 0 d 0

Tlnidng m~i quae te va diu tu tnie tiepmiae ngoai d~u bing tnldng ehm llii

SIr c11am lai trong tang tnt6ng ella nenkinh te the gioi se khien cho tlutrJng maiquae a tang tnlifng cham la trong nam2007 va delt miic 76 giiim 13di~m phntram so voi nam 2006 Si giam sut trongt6c do tang tru0ng thudng m~i the gioi 88di~n ra ij cit 2 khia canh xuat khiiu va nhaPkhiiu eung nhli 6 efl 2 nh6m nen Iinh tephat triampn va clang phat triampn Trang nam2007 gia ddu va gia vang se ve1nt[p t~ebitn dfjng pMle tP va kh6 duo aoan C6nhieu kjch ban dude dua ra song do giadu tho va gia vang eleu ehju tae dJng ellamJt Io~t cae nhan t6 tU dja-kinh te elja-ehinh trj eho tOi tam Iy voi nhung di6n bienbat ngd kh6 IUdng do vay cae di bao deueho rimg bat clap su cham ]~i trong tangtru6ng ella nen kinh te the gioi gia eiia ea2 mi)thang nay se con bien dong phlie tapva kh6 e6 th~ quay tr6ve mCtetnioe khi xay ranhung d(jt gia tang elJLbien nh l( vua qual9

Thea danh giaIntelligence Unit nam

cua EconOlnist2007 etdu til trUe

tic) nltoc ngodi tren the giCli (PD]) il cittllc gia tiing nhLing ch(un l(f-i va ct-t n~]c12225 t) USD chi tang c6 49 so voillam 2006) thap hdn nbieu so voi rnJc tang22 ella nam 2006 so voi nam 200 Dongv6n FDJ vila cae nen bnn te phat tri6n 88dat mlic 8148 ty USD tang 81 so v(jjnam 2006 Trang (t6 My viin tiep tHe c1tdecoi ]a elja chi thu hut FDI dCing elfiu the gi6itrong giai do~n 2006-2010 Dimp v6n PDIeha) vao eRe nen kinb te thi lrtidng moi n6irhi cia muc 4077 ty USD giam 07 Begt v6iniim 2006 Tuy nhien chiw A diie bi~t laTrung Qu6c vfin tiep tue Iil diGell1 hitjJdlnd6] voi FDI irang nan1 2007 vi Dill] narntiep theo 8ltljJnh~~pva then tinh dtiQC chietoan se tiel) t~c iii hinh t hue driu tLl chin]l tJelc nen linb te phat tr](lllllttirlg hiDl1 tbiicnRy 58 g~p phai nhung c~il1 Lr( l1f~tY c3ngLang do sq 10 ng~lj eua ettC n~iuc tiep nh~ndiiu tti ve nhung tae dong Lieu elie ell hinhthCir nay d6i voi an ninh qu6e gia ball s~cvan h6a va phiit tri~n kinh te Nllung dauhieu danh gia la chi phi va cd hoi eua IiDld lllQt so TIll0C cong nghi~p plft tri6n nhlclJnIjar dang pbflt tri~n d~t 13 CilU hoi vc dleuki~n cua nhung hQp dong aa kj v6i c82 c6ngty da qu6e gia nhi1ng nguy co b8t 6n dia-ehinh tri va kinh te 6 nhieu kim vue bcn thegioi la cd 56 cho nhung di biio k6 tren

Sti mat din b~ng ed ban eua nlnkinh te the giai se viin tiep tfc giatang keo theo su giam gia eiw BillaMy so vai Euro Yen Nh~t Ban va Nhandan t~

Thea IMF nam 2007 tham hut cilil dintili khoan v~ng Iai ella My tiep tue gia tangva cIt toi muc giin7 GDP Trong bili eiinhmue I~m phat 6 My vfrn eao va tang tru0ngcila nen kin11 teMy 5e chijm lai stfgij tangtham hlft nay cling voi stf thu hEP trongchenh lee] Eli suat ella Do la My so voi liiisuat clla Euro va Yen Nhat Eib St khiampella Do ]1 My tiep tve giiJm gil so V01 2ding tien Jlt6tren Du baa Do b MS eoJthii

NhiJng vein ae IltlNriTEVA CHiiifj TRi THEGIGIs6gt(130)2007-------------------- - -- )3

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IIII

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Nguyampn Hong S(j~_

My duai tgt1Cdi)ng eua s giam gia manhvc gi6 t bulli eua d6ng Dola My so vrii eaed6ng tiiln ehu ehot khae do cae nhit cliiutil nuoc ngoai Jllat nieOl tin vaodong bennay n6i 1ieng va nen kinh te My n6i chungNeu dieu nay xay ra von IlllaCngoai 5e a aLehy ra kh6i nuac My vai nhung tac donggay sup diSthi tnlClng cJlung khoan Trongboi canh d6 Fed se buoc phai tang cao laisu1lLva cliel nay se khien cho nEinkinh t(My rai vao suy thoai voi nhung tac clang Ianchuyen tieu cuc tai nen kinh te toim cAu

Thti ba rui ro gidm sut mqnh han d~ttinh eua 3 nifn hinh te lim nhft thegi6i Kinh te My giam sut manh do )nnphat gia tang va gia nha 6 giiim manh honso vai d1j tinh Nhat Ban va khu vuc don)Euro cung se rai vao suy thoai do chinlsaeh tang lai su1lt cllide th1jC hi~n nh31hhan va mnh han muc cln thiet truac s11gia tang cila ap life lm phat Neu diEiunayxay ra cac nen kinh te khac se bi 3 nilhuong day ehuyEin va kinh te the gioi se roivao suy thoai

Cling vai nhung rui 10kii tren la rUl 1Ian 1i)ngva khong kiiim soat cluoc cila dichcum gia clm tai chau A cung nhu nhllngbien dong kh6 JuiJng khae eua thien tai elllajtac di)ng eua hi~n tuling El Nino Tat canhung dieu d6 dang doi hoi cae nha hotchdjnh chinh sach 0 titng nuae phai e6 nhungehinh sach diifu ehinh phu hrJpva linh hOftding nhu mjt mue do eao han trang pMihrp ehinh sa ell giila cae nUr1c

Thu nMt 0 cae ni1n kinh te phat triiinchinh sach tien te duoc d1j baa se tiep tucduc th~t chat diic biet la 0 Nhi)t Ban vakhu v1jc cl6ng Euro Tuy nhien dii trimh rili10 diSva sil th~t chiit nay se phai dien 1amot cach tit tii vai s1j thea d6i sat sao phanung cua thi trudng Suc ep gia tang cua lamphat cl6ng tii1n l1i)idja giam gia cling voi $llgiam sut eua gia nha 0 va tang tru6ng killhte trong boi canh tham hvt kep (thiim buttai khoan vang lai 18n va tham hut ngnn

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Nguyeurom Hong Son

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kinh te thj trudng moi n6i va dflng phat tri~nla 130 tang 11 di~m phfln tram so voi nam2005 Dang hiu y la trong llam 2006 ty Jetang trVdng xuat khfru ella cae nen kinh tephat tri6n dii eao han so voi ty ]~ timg trvongnh1tp kh1l11d1ioi tae dong eua slj gia tangmanh trong t6ng eilu 0 die nen linh tedangphtit tri6n eong voi slj YElUdi ella t6ng ciiutieu dung va dilu tv 0 My (d1iOitae d(ing ellachinh saeh tien t~ thilt eh(it) ket voi sV giamgia ella d6ng Dola My Thea Ngan hang ThElgioi (WB) trong nua dilu ella nam 2006 xuatkh~u ella My dii tang 13 (tinh theo nam)tang tOi 6 ditm phiin tram so voi eung kyna III 2005 Cung trong thiJi gian d6 xuatkhampu ella Nh1ttBan eung dii tang 10 Trangs6 cae nen kinh te dang phat tri~n xuat

kbpoundu ella Irung Qll( cun~[rll tilT~Lj~ ~~I(

trong cung thai ky nell tren ShU ~25n21Tl Ulfltnidng liE-m 11Cnaln 200G Frunp C)u(c CLrulqt qua fl1y vd irO thiLnh nt-I hin_h 1 co nlC

xuiit hha thrJ2 tren thegiSi

Nam 2006 Jitnam thu 4 lien tiElfgiti CIOtat eiLcae nh6m hang dude ~u6n brin tronpthltdng mai quae te cUlltiing ac iJiU j SItgia tiing manh cllagiri ddu ma ua him louTheo Il1F trong vong 8 th[il1g dril Jarr2006 giil Jilll gicl(gtngay trung binh Ji tarftOi 16 Vil dat Wi mile k5 he 70USDtbling vio diiLl th6ng 82006 Suo gi~tang Il1-nh eua clu ve dflu lTIO (kinh te t1u~gioi tang trVfJng rl1ltnh dJc biet lit kiLh t(N19 va Trung Quoe) ket hqp val ihlllg gifJndo~n cua nguon cung do s~t hlfl iqp ClnguBn dilu clv tnJ va bat Sn dinh cliachinhtri (hen qnan den cltliong trL--I1 h0l JlhjJl (Iran xllng dQtLi Bang - lraen kh-jnr- belJan r(ing fJlr1lcbat 6n dinh d Nigeria ) itbay d6i trong ehinh sach ki~m sORt ngu610dilu mo (6 Venezllila Bolivia Ngl)ll ehinh saeb duO td gia ditll nO cao clla TOchue cae mi6c xuat kh1lu dim mo (OPEC) Jit nhung nGuyen nban co bn khien giadlu mo tang eao va bilt iSn djnh trong naln2006 Tuy nhien nen kinh tEl the gioi vac1llia bi tae dong llJ)nh m(it phln Ja do sjtang eao ella gift ditu mo dUCiequyet dillbboi ea ben cung va ben du dile biet Ja bencilu Thea d6 ebi phi Lang len do gia elfiu tangdvqc bu dip bdi slJ tang Jen cua tbl nhl)

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2001 2002 2003 2004 200--Khoi hidng thlidng mi quoc te - 34 53 10 74

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Cae nen kinh te thj tnidng llJ6i n6i va 30 69 108 146 Ii dang phitt trifn INhi-p khiiuCite nen kinh te phiit tri6n 09 26 40 91 6GCite nen kinh te thj tnldng moi libi va 33 61

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rnflnh V(l m[tc tRng ~-~Z~ltr0ng thd] k)7Luthtmg 0112000 den thflDg 72006 d(ic bjijt 13gift cae kin1 J00i nhli c5ng kem va nikenGia cae 100i kim loai nay diitang tOi 60-70Y trong vang 6 tulln tong cllu thang52006 sau d6 lai giarn xllong 25 vao cuoithang 62006 Bli gia tang mnh me cuadu (dae bi(t la tii Trung Quoc dtioi Utedong Clla qua trinh cong nghiijp h6a) congvOinguon cung giam st do chat hiltlngcuaqu~ng ngay mot xau thien tai dinh cong ltiiikhien cho gia kim loi liing n10nh trongniiln 2006 Cing bc1t 6n dinh vii tang girimanh trong nam 2006 (381 va dat mllch)~luc 731 USD lounce vdo thang 512006)nhung hac vri vdi cdc loai him loai hhricSII gia tang mrmh va bdt 6n dinh cIJagirivang lai la SII tich hap eua nit nhitu caenh6n tc tli ehinh tri (su bat 0n dinh dia - chinh trj 6 nhieu nOl tren the gioi nhu datrlnh bay 6 tren) kinh te (sv gia tang ellallm phat slj giarn gia mmn ella Dola My)chinh sach (ehinh saeh tang elv tru vill1geuaNga vii Iran hay ehuyeuron mot phampndu truquoe te tU Dola My sang vang cua TrungQuoe ) eho den cae yell to nhu Him ly dlluco va nhu du S11 dung vang trong eac mua l~II~i (nhli amp Tmng Quoe va An D9) ben C0nhsv thu h~p clla ngu6n cung do chi phi sinxuat eao dinh cong va kh6 khan trong vi~ctlm ra cac mo vang moi eung nln1 chinh sachkhong ban vang dlj tru clla cac ngan hangTrung ultJngtren the gi8i

Me du ca 2 nhom nuoc (eong nghi~pphat trieuron va dang ph at trieuron) da rat no IljCdam phan va co ging tim ra m9t thoa hiijpnhung do khong thong nhat atiltJcvoi nhauve vlln de trq cip nang nghiep trong nam2006 vong dam phdn Doha vt tu do hDathudng mai toan cdu dOnJi vao be tdc voinhilng iinh ht((Jng tieu etic Wi trieuron vongdam ph an tier thea Tuy dllia anh hu6ngngay tai tlnlCing m(li quae tfi nlning sti bet~( nay se co nguy co dan (ten Inat niern tinao h~ th61lg ti-niltJngmm U phliong Jam

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tang tv tuong bi10 he) va kllZl nang e~1fdJhuong thultJng mi do su bung n0 quo mllCclla cae hiep dinh tlniltJng mei Id1Uvlie vasong phultJng

Cac thj trliCtng chUng khoan quae vhO(lt ding kha thu~n Wi

Nam 2006 la nam ma cac thi tni0n[chung khoan tren the gioi tu thj tntdng 6cac ntn kinh to phat trieuron eho tOi thitntCJng 0 cae nen kinh te thj tntCJngmoi lliSih00t dong kha thu3n loi voi nhung mitetang ky lue 88-221 so voi dliu l1am 2U06va 248-1216 so voi nam 2003(51bull TangtrLtong kinh te cung voi s11gia tang eua lrjnhuan cong ty Ja nhung nhan to eltJb11quyet dinh slj tang tni6ng manh ella caethj truCJng chung khotll1 tren the gioi trongnam 2006 Ben eanh nhung nhan to 06 SUtang truong m(lnh ella cac thi trudng chltngkhoan chau A con dtiqc thue d~y mann hdisli gia tang m0nh ella dong von ntioc ngoaivoi nhling tac el(ing nhieu chitu cJOivoi ntnkinh te va doi hoi cae mioc tiep nhijn phaie6 nhung chinh sach dieu tiet ph hltJpDieuron hinh la vao euoi thang 122006 thitn(dng chung khoan Thai Lan da chao CtilOm0nh duoi tac dong ella slj rut von dochinh phll Thai ap dung eac bi~lt ph)kieurom soat elong von vao nhiim 110nche sljtang gia clla d5ng Baht)

Diiu tli tnc tiep nliCic ngoai tiep ttICgia tang

Theo dftnh gia ella Economist IntelligenceUnit flam 2006 damputu truc tiep nuoc ngoai(FDI) tren the gioi d(lt mue 1165 ty USDtang 22 so voi nam 2005 Trang d6 cacnuoc cong nghi~p phat tri~n nhijn dliqc7543 ty US]) tang 358 so voi nam 2005va cae nen kinh te thj tntdng moi nei nhi[mdultJc4106 ty usn chi tang co 28 so voinam 2005 Nhung con so nay cho thay FDIvfin ehll yeu ti)p trung ( cac nen kinh teph6t triiKn noi co moi truongallu tu (co sah(l tling eung va mtn) thui)n lltJicung voinguon nhiin llic ehat lLtqngcao

______ K_i_n_h~ethe gi6i200~ - 2~07Tiep lye tang (rLldngeao (rongruiro

Dil thj 5 Dii tti tnjc tiep ntioc ngo2i tren the giGi Thai ki 2005-2008

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Danh gia eila UNCJAD (2007) ve dClllgvon FDI tren the gioi co ph6n lac quan honTheo cd quan nay FDI toan du nam 2006tiep t1fCtang nam thu 3 lien hep va d~l 12nghin ty USD tang 34 so voi nam 2005nhltng v~n thap hdn muc kluc 14 nghinty USD vao nam 2000 Dang luu y la My diikh6i phue dli9c vi the eila minh the chfmAnh lrd Ii thanh nude tiep nhi)n FDI Ionnhat tren the gioi

Cling theo UNCTAD stt gia lang manheila dong von FDI trong nam 2006 phananh mue lang trlidng kinh te cao 6 nhieukhu vtte tren the gioi (ea eac nlioc phattri~n va dang phat tri~n) Ltli nhui)n c6ngty tang (va keo theo gia chung khoan tangeao) dii thue dly tang gia trj eila cae V1fmua Ii va sap nhap (MampA) xuyen bien gioikhien eho ty tnmg cae dong FDI Ion hdnVi(je tiep tue tli do hart eac chinh saeh d6utli va cae ehe di) thli0ng mi cung dii tiepsue them vao kEltqua nay m1)edli 6 mi)t sonttoc ehau Phi va My La Tinh co mi)t sothalv d6i Ion trong ehinh sach kinh te hltongWiViee nang eao vai tro eila nha mine eu ng

nhlt nhung thay d6i trong eac ehinh sachtnc tiep lien quan Wi cae nha d6u tli mtosngoa ho1)ccae nganh - nhat Iii cae nganhlien quan den tili nguyen thien nhien

TRIEN VQNG KINH TE THE GI61 2007

Kinh te the giGi tiep tvc tang tnidngcao nhling chilm Ii

M1)edli co nhung dtt baa Cli thpound khacnhau I1hling cae t6 chuc tai chinh quae te(nhli IMF WE __) cung nh1i tli nhan(Morgan Stanley Credit Suisse _) deu ehodng nom 2007 kinh tt th gidi se tiep tllCtang truCmg cao nhung ch~m l(Li tit 03 Mn06 di~m ph6n tram so voi nam 2006 TheoIMF nam 2007 tang trli6ng eila nen kinhte tM gioi se dt muC 49 giam 03 di~mph6n tram so voi nam 2006 Muc gidm Slitncly chu yeu se diln ra d cae neon kinh t[phat trien giam 04 di~m ph6n tram so voinam 2006 voi muc tang dt 27 Nhungtac d6ng tieu ctte eila gia d6u cao cling voichinh sach ticn t~ thitt ch1)tlaonhung nguyennhiln cd ban khien cho nel1 kinh te the gioiUingtrli0ng cham li1itrong l1am 2007

Nililng vjn ae KINH TE VA CHiNH TR THE GiGI s6 2 (130) gt(107------~----------------tf

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Nguym Hong Son

kinh te thj tru0ng moi n6i va dang phattridn giam toe trang nam 2007 Doi voiTrung Qu6c sv tang trudng eham lai ellanen kmh te eon duae quyet djnh bdi nhungbien phap hanh chinh nhitm giam dAu tuva ngan ehijn tinh tr0ng phat tridn quanong clla nen kinh te

Tang trudng kinh te the gioi vitn tiep tveehiqe c1uy td d mue eao nhung eh$m 10i sekhien cho s6 lUrjng vi~c lam mai tiep tctang tntUng ty If that nghi~p ti[p tuc giamnhung diu ch)m Iri Thea IMF d cae nenkinh te phat triampn so luqng vi~c lam moichi tang co 1 th$m chi giam a Nh$t Ban(01) Mue giam ella tj I~ tMt nghj~pcling tuang tu th$m chi gia tang nh 6 My(49 so voi 48 nam 2006)

Lun phat viin tiep tvc niim trongvong kiiim soat nhung suc ep clla nodoi vdi nhieu nen kinh te viin m~mi

Xu huang tht chat tien t~ dien ra elilngdeu CJde nen kinh te dije bi~t la d cae nenkinh te phat triampn eung voi slj eh$m Ill

qlHl vlQc lan1 giJJ11 dau tu vao nha 6 va diutj2il dung ca nhan Doi voi khu vve r1ingFura tang tnldng ella kIm vue nay con sebi anh huCJngbdi sv gia tang trong time giatrj gi8 tang (VAT) a Due va su bep tue tanggia ella Euro so voi Dola My (voi nhung tacdong tieu cue toi xuat khhu mot trangnilung c[inglue tang trudng ehinh ella kimVtiC nay)

--=======-- I ~WB Morgan Stanley Credit

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Suisse I Theo PPP

(2006) Econonlics (2006) tnfdng Team (2006)

~ 1-2007[)[)~J 200_7_2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007

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Trang khi do Ung (lIang Clla cae nenkinh te thj tru0ng mOl n6i va clang phattri~n ell) gian1 nh9 va UD-t111UC 72 (giiln101 di6m ph~n tnrn so voi nam 2006) Xettren khia eanh clia 1y tCiedi tiing truangkinh te se suy giam 6 h1u khampp cae kh u vuetrell the gioi til cae nen kinh te Trung vaDong Au eho Wi cae nen kinh te d ehau ATrung Dong va lIty Latinh d ehau ATrung Quae va An Di se vitn tiep tue cluytd duae mlic tang tudng eao (10 va 73thea thli tV)81 Tang tnidng Clla eae nuoeASEAN duqe c1i baa se cl0t mue 654(tang khcmg dang kamp so voi nam 2006 027didm phiin tram) trong dCgttang truang ellaViet Nam vitn tiep tne dllqe du bao la se amue eao Hhat trong kh6i (76) Nhung c1ubao tlen eha thay ehau A se vfln tiip tle litkhu vve phat triampn nang dong va la d~u t~utang trudng ella nen kinh te the gioi trongnam 2007 Ben e0nh niuJltlg nguyen nhanehinh k6 tren (giiid~(l va lfi suat tang cao)slitang gia cua cac d6ng tie1 1191 d1R so vCiiBola f1v cling gor ph6n k~-iiell eno crHnen

M ~tC du LAng lrHnc Cl3 C8 3 trnng Uhnkinh te 16n l)(~n Ll16 giDi (11 ~9lJ EU2tt1 va Nh1t Bzn 211) den S8 ch(lln l~inhl(ng nl(rc tang tnt0ng ClU1 ca 3 trung Lan1nay vtln tiep tlc xich 101 gan Dhau th~ hl~nsuOtic)J tue ella xu hong Uti din biing trangtang tniang giiia cae nin kinh te Wn (xcmBang J va Dr5thi 2) DSi oi My nhiing tacdong kd tren dab~t d~u tli nam 2006 thong

Bdng 6 D bao tang tr-Uampngkinh t6 the giai niim 2007 (nam)

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[0 I J~ftNgu6n IMF (2006) WB (2006) Mussa (2006) Morgan Stanley Global Economics Team

(2006) Cedit Suisse (2006)

1

trong Lang trlt(jng eLla 11el1 kinh tc the gidi(rong nam 2007 se kIlien eho mt~clam phattden thigidi grim nhe ue tip tue n6m trangtam kilil soat Tu) nhim (j mot so nttacsue tip ea yetl to ney dB vai niin kinh tevan tif[p tue manh Thea lMF nam 2007 tyl~ I~m ph at 6 cae nen kin 11laquo) phat triampn sodat muc 23 gj~m 03 so voi nam 2006Trang d6 ty 10 lam pilat ( My vfrn cao nhat29 va dat truoe CilCn11aho~eh dinh ehinhsclch nual nEl) bal Loan kl16 gili giUH vi0Cduy tri toe c1lt)Ftng lnidng 6n dinh va kiemche I~m phat 6 CgtlCn6n kinh Llthj tnidngmoi n6i va dang phiil tliampn ty IIJam phatse clt 111UC501 gial11 02 ditm phln tlihnvoi nanl 2006 rruy nhiampn ]~ln phat vantiep tUCla m6i (Ie doa dbi voi su 6n dinlkinh tc 6 chall Phi frullg va Dong Au Vfl

Trung Dong (voi mCL lam phflt theo l11u tuI 1060 )0 79)a 1 0 J 0 d 0

Tlnidng m~i quae te va diu tu tnie tiepmiae ngoai d~u bing tnldng ehm llii

SIr c11am lai trong tang tnt6ng ella nenkinh te the gioi se khien cho tlutrJng maiquae a tang tnlifng cham la trong nam2007 va delt miic 76 giiim 13di~m phntram so voi nam 2006 Si giam sut trongt6c do tang tru0ng thudng m~i the gioi 88di~n ra ij cit 2 khia canh xuat khiiu va nhaPkhiiu eung nhli 6 efl 2 nh6m nen Iinh tephat triampn va clang phat triampn Trang nam2007 gia ddu va gia vang se ve1nt[p t~ebitn dfjng pMle tP va kh6 duo aoan C6nhieu kjch ban dude dua ra song do giadu tho va gia vang eleu ehju tae dJng ellamJt Io~t cae nhan t6 tU dja-kinh te elja-ehinh trj eho tOi tam Iy voi nhung di6n bienbat ngd kh6 IUdng do vay cae di bao deueho rimg bat clap su cham ]~i trong tangtru6ng ella nen kinh te the gioi gia eiia ea2 mi)thang nay se con bien dong phlie tapva kh6 e6 th~ quay tr6ve mCtetnioe khi xay ranhung d(jt gia tang elJLbien nh l( vua qual9

Thea danh giaIntelligence Unit nam

cua EconOlnist2007 etdu til trUe

tic) nltoc ngodi tren the giCli (PD]) il cittllc gia tiing nhLing ch(un l(f-i va ct-t n~]c12225 t) USD chi tang c6 49 so voillam 2006) thap hdn nbieu so voi rnJc tang22 ella nam 2006 so voi nam 200 Dongv6n FDJ vila cae nen bnn te phat tri6n 88dat mlic 8148 ty USD tang 81 so v(jjnam 2006 Trang (t6 My viin tiep tHe c1tdecoi ]a elja chi thu hut FDI dCing elfiu the gi6itrong giai do~n 2006-2010 Dimp v6n PDIeha) vao eRe nen kinb te thi lrtidng moi n6irhi cia muc 4077 ty USD giam 07 Begt v6iniim 2006 Tuy nhien chiw A diie bi~t laTrung Qu6c vfin tiep tue Iil diGell1 hitjJdlnd6] voi FDI irang nan1 2007 vi Dill] narntiep theo 8ltljJnh~~pva then tinh dtiQC chietoan se tiel) t~c iii hinh t hue driu tLl chin]l tJelc nen linb te phat tr](lllllttirlg hiDl1 tbiicnRy 58 g~p phai nhung c~il1 Lr( l1f~tY c3ngLang do sq 10 ng~lj eua ettC n~iuc tiep nh~ndiiu tti ve nhung tae dong Lieu elie ell hinhthCir nay d6i voi an ninh qu6e gia ball s~cvan h6a va phiit tri~n kinh te Nllung dauhieu danh gia la chi phi va cd hoi eua IiDld lllQt so TIll0C cong nghi~p plft tri6n nhlclJnIjar dang pbflt tri~n d~t 13 CilU hoi vc dleuki~n cua nhung hQp dong aa kj v6i c82 c6ngty da qu6e gia nhi1ng nguy co b8t 6n dia-ehinh tri va kinh te 6 nhieu kim vue bcn thegioi la cd 56 cho nhung di biio k6 tren

Sti mat din b~ng ed ban eua nlnkinh te the giai se viin tiep tfc giatang keo theo su giam gia eiw BillaMy so vai Euro Yen Nh~t Ban va Nhandan t~

Thea IMF nam 2007 tham hut cilil dintili khoan v~ng Iai ella My tiep tue gia tangva cIt toi muc giin7 GDP Trong bili eiinhmue I~m phat 6 My vfrn eao va tang tru0ngcila nen kin11 teMy 5e chijm lai stfgij tangtham hlft nay cling voi stf thu hEP trongchenh lee] Eli suat ella Do la My so voi liiisuat clla Euro va Yen Nhat Eib St khiampella Do ]1 My tiep tve giiJm gil so V01 2ding tien Jlt6tren Du baa Do b MS eoJthii

NhiJng vein ae IltlNriTEVA CHiiifj TRi THEGIGIs6gt(130)2007-------------------- - -- )3

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IIII

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Nguyampn Hong S(j~_

My duai tgt1Cdi)ng eua s giam gia manhvc gi6 t bulli eua d6ng Dola My so vrii eaed6ng tiiln ehu ehot khae do cae nhit cliiutil nuoc ngoai Jllat nieOl tin vaodong bennay n6i 1ieng va nen kinh te My n6i chungNeu dieu nay xay ra von IlllaCngoai 5e a aLehy ra kh6i nuac My vai nhung tac donggay sup diSthi tnlClng cJlung khoan Trongboi canh d6 Fed se buoc phai tang cao laisu1lLva cliel nay se khien cho nEinkinh t(My rai vao suy thoai voi nhung tac clang Ianchuyen tieu cuc tai nen kinh te toim cAu

Thti ba rui ro gidm sut mqnh han d~ttinh eua 3 nifn hinh te lim nhft thegi6i Kinh te My giam sut manh do )nnphat gia tang va gia nha 6 giiim manh honso vai d1j tinh Nhat Ban va khu vuc don)Euro cung se rai vao suy thoai do chinlsaeh tang lai su1lt cllide th1jC hi~n nh31hhan va mnh han muc cln thiet truac s11gia tang cila ap life lm phat Neu diEiunayxay ra cac nen kinh te khac se bi 3 nilhuong day ehuyEin va kinh te the gioi se roivao suy thoai

Cling vai nhung rui 10kii tren la rUl 1Ian 1i)ngva khong kiiim soat cluoc cila dichcum gia clm tai chau A cung nhu nhllngbien dong kh6 JuiJng khae eua thien tai elllajtac di)ng eua hi~n tuling El Nino Tat canhung dieu d6 dang doi hoi cae nha hotchdjnh chinh sach 0 titng nuae phai e6 nhungehinh sach diifu ehinh phu hrJpva linh hOftding nhu mjt mue do eao han trang pMihrp ehinh sa ell giila cae nUr1c

Thu nMt 0 cae ni1n kinh te phat triiinchinh sach tien te duoc d1j baa se tiep tucduc th~t chat diic biet la 0 Nhi)t Ban vakhu v1jc cl6ng Euro Tuy nhien dii trimh rili10 diSva sil th~t chiit nay se phai dien 1amot cach tit tii vai s1j thea d6i sat sao phanung cua thi trudng Suc ep gia tang cua lamphat cl6ng tii1n l1i)idja giam gia cling voi $llgiam sut eua gia nha 0 va tang tru6ng killhte trong boi canh tham hvt kep (thiim buttai khoan vang lai 18n va tham hut ngnn

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S gia tcing manh me ea nJn inh at thegiai trang nam 2006 altae phiLn anh trangsU tiing tntung caa Cliothuong mai quoc atTbeo s6lieu ella IMF nilln 2006 tlniong mCiquae tc tang tntdng 89deg~ tang IJ)ltYt) so voinam 2005 nhvng v1n thap han mlie 106ella nam 2004 Xet tren khia e(lnh xuat kh~utang trVdng xuat kh~u eua cHe nen kinh tElphat tri~n dilt Sk timg 25 di~m philn tramso v6i nan1 2005 va chi sf) nJv ella cRe nenltinh tethi tniiJng moi nei va dlllg phat tri~n18 lO7t) giam 1 d16rn phal1 tran1 so VO] DaHl2005 XM tren khia eanh nhap khfru tang lrVdng nhap khl1ell cae nell Iinh t6 phattri6n dat mlic 75 tang 16 di6m ph An trtnnso vdi l1alTI 200) va chi so n~lY ella die Deil

kinh te thj trudng moi n6i va dflng phat tri~nla 130 tang 11 di~m phfln tram so voi nam2005 Dang hiu y la trong llam 2006 ty Jetang trVdng xuat khfru ella cae nen kinh tephat tri6n dii eao han so voi ty ]~ timg trvongnh1tp kh1l11d1ioi tae dong eua slj gia tangmanh trong t6ng eilu 0 die nen linh tedangphtit tri6n eong voi slj YElUdi ella t6ng ciiutieu dung va dilu tv 0 My (d1iOitae d(ing ellachinh saeh tien t~ thilt eh(it) ket voi sV giamgia ella d6ng Dola My Thea Ngan hang ThElgioi (WB) trong nua dilu ella nam 2006 xuatkh~u ella My dii tang 13 (tinh theo nam)tang tOi 6 ditm phiin tram so voi eung kyna III 2005 Cung trong thiJi gian d6 xuatkhampu ella Nh1ttBan eung dii tang 10 Trangs6 cae nen kinh te dang phat tri~n xuat

kbpoundu ella Irung Qll( cun~[rll tilT~Lj~ ~~I(

trong cung thai ky nell tren ShU ~25n21Tl Ulfltnidng liE-m 11Cnaln 200G Frunp C)u(c CLrulqt qua fl1y vd irO thiLnh nt-I hin_h 1 co nlC

xuiit hha thrJ2 tren thegiSi

Nam 2006 Jitnam thu 4 lien tiElfgiti CIOtat eiLcae nh6m hang dude ~u6n brin tronpthltdng mai quae te cUlltiing ac iJiU j SItgia tiing manh cllagiri ddu ma ua him louTheo Il1F trong vong 8 th[il1g dril Jarr2006 giil Jilll gicl(gtngay trung binh Ji tarftOi 16 Vil dat Wi mile k5 he 70USDtbling vio diiLl th6ng 82006 Suo gi~tang Il1-nh eua clu ve dflu lTIO (kinh te t1u~gioi tang trVfJng rl1ltnh dJc biet lit kiLh t(N19 va Trung Quoe) ket hqp val ihlllg gifJndo~n cua nguon cung do s~t hlfl iqp ClnguBn dilu clv tnJ va bat Sn dinh cliachinhtri (hen qnan den cltliong trL--I1 h0l JlhjJl (Iran xllng dQtLi Bang - lraen kh-jnr- belJan r(ing fJlr1lcbat 6n dinh d Nigeria ) itbay d6i trong ehinh sach ki~m sORt ngu610dilu mo (6 Venezllila Bolivia Ngl)ll ehinh saeb duO td gia ditll nO cao clla TOchue cae mi6c xuat kh1lu dim mo (OPEC) Jit nhung nGuyen nban co bn khien giadlu mo tang eao va bilt iSn djnh trong naln2006 Tuy nhien nen kinh tEl the gioi vac1llia bi tae dong llJ)nh m(it phln Ja do sjtang eao ella gift ditu mo dUCiequyet dillbboi ea ben cung va ben du dile biet Ja bencilu Thea d6 ebi phi Lang len do gia elfiu tangdvqc bu dip bdi slJ tang Jen cua tbl nhl)

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2001 2002 2003 2004 200--Khoi hidng thlidng mi quoc te - 34 53 10 74

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Cae nen kinh te thj tnidng llJ6i n6i va 30 69 108 146 Ii dang phitt trifn INhi-p khiiuCite nen kinh te phiit tri6n 09 26 40 91 6GCite nen kinh te thj tnldng moi libi va 33 61

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rnflnh V(l m[tc tRng ~-~Z~ltr0ng thd] k)7Luthtmg 0112000 den thflDg 72006 d(ic bjijt 13gift cae kin1 J00i nhli c5ng kem va nikenGia cae 100i kim loai nay diitang tOi 60-70Y trong vang 6 tulln tong cllu thang52006 sau d6 lai giarn xllong 25 vao cuoithang 62006 Bli gia tang mnh me cuadu (dae bi(t la tii Trung Quoc dtioi Utedong Clla qua trinh cong nghiijp h6a) congvOinguon cung giam st do chat hiltlngcuaqu~ng ngay mot xau thien tai dinh cong ltiiikhien cho gia kim loi liing n10nh trongniiln 2006 Cing bc1t 6n dinh vii tang girimanh trong nam 2006 (381 va dat mllch)~luc 731 USD lounce vdo thang 512006)nhung hac vri vdi cdc loai him loai hhricSII gia tang mrmh va bdt 6n dinh cIJagirivang lai la SII tich hap eua nit nhitu caenh6n tc tli ehinh tri (su bat 0n dinh dia - chinh trj 6 nhieu nOl tren the gioi nhu datrlnh bay 6 tren) kinh te (sv gia tang ellallm phat slj giarn gia mmn ella Dola My)chinh sach (ehinh saeh tang elv tru vill1geuaNga vii Iran hay ehuyeuron mot phampndu truquoe te tU Dola My sang vang cua TrungQuoe ) eho den cae yell to nhu Him ly dlluco va nhu du S11 dung vang trong eac mua l~II~i (nhli amp Tmng Quoe va An D9) ben C0nhsv thu h~p clla ngu6n cung do chi phi sinxuat eao dinh cong va kh6 khan trong vi~ctlm ra cac mo vang moi eung nln1 chinh sachkhong ban vang dlj tru clla cac ngan hangTrung ultJngtren the gi8i

Me du ca 2 nhom nuoc (eong nghi~pphat trieuron va dang ph at trieuron) da rat no IljCdam phan va co ging tim ra m9t thoa hiijpnhung do khong thong nhat atiltJcvoi nhauve vlln de trq cip nang nghiep trong nam2006 vong dam phdn Doha vt tu do hDathudng mai toan cdu dOnJi vao be tdc voinhilng iinh ht((Jng tieu etic Wi trieuron vongdam ph an tier thea Tuy dllia anh hu6ngngay tai tlnlCing m(li quae tfi nlning sti bet~( nay se co nguy co dan (ten Inat niern tinao h~ th61lg ti-niltJngmm U phliong Jam

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tang tv tuong bi10 he) va kllZl nang e~1fdJhuong thultJng mi do su bung n0 quo mllCclla cae hiep dinh tlniltJng mei Id1Uvlie vasong phultJng

Cac thj trliCtng chUng khoan quae vhO(lt ding kha thu~n Wi

Nam 2006 la nam ma cac thi tni0n[chung khoan tren the gioi tu thj tntdng 6cac ntn kinh to phat trieuron eho tOi thitntCJng 0 cae nen kinh te thj tntCJngmoi lliSih00t dong kha thu3n loi voi nhung mitetang ky lue 88-221 so voi dliu l1am 2U06va 248-1216 so voi nam 2003(51bull TangtrLtong kinh te cung voi s11gia tang eua lrjnhuan cong ty Ja nhung nhan to eltJb11quyet dinh slj tang tni6ng manh ella caethj truCJng chung khotll1 tren the gioi trongnam 2006 Ben eanh nhung nhan to 06 SUtang truong m(lnh ella cac thi trudng chltngkhoan chau A con dtiqc thue d~y mann hdisli gia tang m0nh ella dong von ntioc ngoaivoi nhling tac el(ing nhieu chitu cJOivoi ntnkinh te va doi hoi cae mioc tiep nhijn phaie6 nhung chinh sach dieu tiet ph hltJpDieuron hinh la vao euoi thang 122006 thitn(dng chung khoan Thai Lan da chao CtilOm0nh duoi tac dong ella slj rut von dochinh phll Thai ap dung eac bi~lt ph)kieurom soat elong von vao nhiim 110nche sljtang gia clla d5ng Baht)

Diiu tli tnc tiep nliCic ngoai tiep ttICgia tang

Theo dftnh gia ella Economist IntelligenceUnit flam 2006 damputu truc tiep nuoc ngoai(FDI) tren the gioi d(lt mue 1165 ty USDtang 22 so voi nam 2005 Trang d6 cacnuoc cong nghi~p phat tri~n nhijn dliqc7543 ty US]) tang 358 so voi nam 2005va cae nen kinh te thj tntdng moi nei nhi[mdultJc4106 ty usn chi tang co 28 so voinam 2005 Nhung con so nay cho thay FDIvfin ehll yeu ti)p trung ( cac nen kinh teph6t triiKn noi co moi truongallu tu (co sah(l tling eung va mtn) thui)n lltJicung voinguon nhiin llic ehat lLtqngcao

______ K_i_n_h~ethe gi6i200~ - 2~07Tiep lye tang (rLldngeao (rongruiro

Dil thj 5 Dii tti tnjc tiep ntioc ngo2i tren the giGi Thai ki 2005-2008

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Danh gia eila UNCJAD (2007) ve dClllgvon FDI tren the gioi co ph6n lac quan honTheo cd quan nay FDI toan du nam 2006tiep t1fCtang nam thu 3 lien hep va d~l 12nghin ty USD tang 34 so voi nam 2005nhltng v~n thap hdn muc kluc 14 nghinty USD vao nam 2000 Dang luu y la My diikh6i phue dli9c vi the eila minh the chfmAnh lrd Ii thanh nude tiep nhi)n FDI Ionnhat tren the gioi

Cling theo UNCTAD stt gia lang manheila dong von FDI trong nam 2006 phananh mue lang trlidng kinh te cao 6 nhieukhu vtte tren the gioi (ea eac nlioc phattri~n va dang phat tri~n) Ltli nhui)n c6ngty tang (va keo theo gia chung khoan tangeao) dii thue dly tang gia trj eila cae V1fmua Ii va sap nhap (MampA) xuyen bien gioikhien eho ty tnmg cae dong FDI Ion hdnVi(je tiep tue tli do hart eac chinh saeh d6utli va cae ehe di) thli0ng mi cung dii tiepsue them vao kEltqua nay m1)edli 6 mi)t sonttoc ehau Phi va My La Tinh co mi)t sothalv d6i Ion trong ehinh sach kinh te hltongWiViee nang eao vai tro eila nha mine eu ng

nhlt nhung thay d6i trong eac ehinh sachtnc tiep lien quan Wi cae nha d6u tli mtosngoa ho1)ccae nganh - nhat Iii cae nganhlien quan den tili nguyen thien nhien

TRIEN VQNG KINH TE THE GI61 2007

Kinh te the giGi tiep tvc tang tnidngcao nhling chilm Ii

M1)edli co nhung dtt baa Cli thpound khacnhau I1hling cae t6 chuc tai chinh quae te(nhli IMF WE __) cung nh1i tli nhan(Morgan Stanley Credit Suisse _) deu ehodng nom 2007 kinh tt th gidi se tiep tllCtang truCmg cao nhung ch~m l(Li tit 03 Mn06 di~m ph6n tram so voi nam 2006 TheoIMF nam 2007 tang trli6ng eila nen kinhte tM gioi se dt muC 49 giam 03 di~mph6n tram so voi nam 2006 Muc gidm Slitncly chu yeu se diln ra d cae neon kinh t[phat trien giam 04 di~m ph6n tram so voinam 2006 voi muc tang dt 27 Nhungtac d6ng tieu ctte eila gia d6u cao cling voichinh sach ticn t~ thitt ch1)tlaonhung nguyennhiln cd ban khien cho nel1 kinh te the gioiUingtrli0ng cham li1itrong l1am 2007

Nililng vjn ae KINH TE VA CHiNH TR THE GiGI s6 2 (130) gt(107------~----------------tf

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Nguym Hong Son

kinh te thj tru0ng moi n6i va dang phattridn giam toe trang nam 2007 Doi voiTrung Qu6c sv tang trudng eham lai ellanen kmh te eon duae quyet djnh bdi nhungbien phap hanh chinh nhitm giam dAu tuva ngan ehijn tinh tr0ng phat tridn quanong clla nen kinh te

Tang trudng kinh te the gioi vitn tiep tveehiqe c1uy td d mue eao nhung eh$m 10i sekhien cho s6 lUrjng vi~c lam mai tiep tctang tntUng ty If that nghi~p ti[p tuc giamnhung diu ch)m Iri Thea IMF d cae nenkinh te phat triampn so luqng vi~c lam moichi tang co 1 th$m chi giam a Nh$t Ban(01) Mue giam ella tj I~ tMt nghj~pcling tuang tu th$m chi gia tang nh 6 My(49 so voi 48 nam 2006)

Lun phat viin tiep tvc niim trongvong kiiim soat nhung suc ep clla nodoi vdi nhieu nen kinh te viin m~mi

Xu huang tht chat tien t~ dien ra elilngdeu CJde nen kinh te dije bi~t la d cae nenkinh te phat triampn eung voi slj eh$m Ill

qlHl vlQc lan1 giJJ11 dau tu vao nha 6 va diutj2il dung ca nhan Doi voi khu vve r1ingFura tang tnldng ella kIm vue nay con sebi anh huCJngbdi sv gia tang trong time giatrj gi8 tang (VAT) a Due va su bep tue tanggia ella Euro so voi Dola My (voi nhung tacdong tieu cue toi xuat khhu mot trangnilung c[inglue tang trudng ehinh ella kimVtiC nay)

--=======-- I ~WB Morgan Stanley Credit

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Suisse I Theo PPP

(2006) Econonlics (2006) tnfdng Team (2006)

~ 1-2007[)[)~J 200_7_2006 2007 2006 2007 2006 2007

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Trang khi do Ung (lIang Clla cae nenkinh te thj tru0ng mOl n6i va clang phattri~n ell) gian1 nh9 va UD-t111UC 72 (giiln101 di6m ph~n tnrn so voi nam 2006) Xettren khia eanh clia 1y tCiedi tiing truangkinh te se suy giam 6 h1u khampp cae kh u vuetrell the gioi til cae nen kinh te Trung vaDong Au eho Wi cae nen kinh te d ehau ATrung Dong va lIty Latinh d ehau ATrung Quae va An Di se vitn tiep tue cluytd duae mlic tang tudng eao (10 va 73thea thli tV)81 Tang tnidng Clla eae nuoeASEAN duqe c1i baa se cl0t mue 654(tang khcmg dang kamp so voi nam 2006 027didm phiin tram) trong dCgttang truang ellaViet Nam vitn tiep tne dllqe du bao la se amue eao Hhat trong kh6i (76) Nhung c1ubao tlen eha thay ehau A se vfln tiip tle litkhu vve phat triampn nang dong va la d~u t~utang trudng ella nen kinh te the gioi trongnam 2007 Ben e0nh niuJltlg nguyen nhanehinh k6 tren (giiid~(l va lfi suat tang cao)slitang gia cua cac d6ng tie1 1191 d1R so vCiiBola f1v cling gor ph6n k~-iiell eno crHnen

M ~tC du LAng lrHnc Cl3 C8 3 trnng Uhnkinh te 16n l)(~n Ll16 giDi (11 ~9lJ EU2tt1 va Nh1t Bzn 211) den S8 ch(lln l~inhl(ng nl(rc tang tnt0ng ClU1 ca 3 trung Lan1nay vtln tiep tlc xich 101 gan Dhau th~ hl~nsuOtic)J tue ella xu hong Uti din biing trangtang tniang giiia cae nin kinh te Wn (xcmBang J va Dr5thi 2) DSi oi My nhiing tacdong kd tren dab~t d~u tli nam 2006 thong

Bdng 6 D bao tang tr-Uampngkinh t6 the giai niim 2007 (nam)

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[0 I J~ftNgu6n IMF (2006) WB (2006) Mussa (2006) Morgan Stanley Global Economics Team

(2006) Cedit Suisse (2006)

1

trong Lang trlt(jng eLla 11el1 kinh tc the gidi(rong nam 2007 se kIlien eho mt~clam phattden thigidi grim nhe ue tip tue n6m trangtam kilil soat Tu) nhim (j mot so nttacsue tip ea yetl to ney dB vai niin kinh tevan tif[p tue manh Thea lMF nam 2007 tyl~ I~m ph at 6 cae nen kin 11laquo) phat triampn sodat muc 23 gj~m 03 so voi nam 2006Trang d6 ty 10 lam pilat ( My vfrn cao nhat29 va dat truoe CilCn11aho~eh dinh ehinhsclch nual nEl) bal Loan kl16 gili giUH vi0Cduy tri toe c1lt)Ftng lnidng 6n dinh va kiemche I~m phat 6 CgtlCn6n kinh Llthj tnidngmoi n6i va dang phiil tliampn ty IIJam phatse clt 111UC501 gial11 02 ditm phln tlihnvoi nanl 2006 rruy nhiampn ]~ln phat vantiep tUCla m6i (Ie doa dbi voi su 6n dinlkinh tc 6 chall Phi frullg va Dong Au Vfl

Trung Dong (voi mCL lam phflt theo l11u tuI 1060 )0 79)a 1 0 J 0 d 0

Tlnidng m~i quae te va diu tu tnie tiepmiae ngoai d~u bing tnldng ehm llii

SIr c11am lai trong tang tnt6ng ella nenkinh te the gioi se khien cho tlutrJng maiquae a tang tnlifng cham la trong nam2007 va delt miic 76 giiim 13di~m phntram so voi nam 2006 Si giam sut trongt6c do tang tru0ng thudng m~i the gioi 88di~n ra ij cit 2 khia canh xuat khiiu va nhaPkhiiu eung nhli 6 efl 2 nh6m nen Iinh tephat triampn va clang phat triampn Trang nam2007 gia ddu va gia vang se ve1nt[p t~ebitn dfjng pMle tP va kh6 duo aoan C6nhieu kjch ban dude dua ra song do giadu tho va gia vang eleu ehju tae dJng ellamJt Io~t cae nhan t6 tU dja-kinh te elja-ehinh trj eho tOi tam Iy voi nhung di6n bienbat ngd kh6 IUdng do vay cae di bao deueho rimg bat clap su cham ]~i trong tangtru6ng ella nen kinh te the gioi gia eiia ea2 mi)thang nay se con bien dong phlie tapva kh6 e6 th~ quay tr6ve mCtetnioe khi xay ranhung d(jt gia tang elJLbien nh l( vua qual9

Thea danh giaIntelligence Unit nam

cua EconOlnist2007 etdu til trUe

tic) nltoc ngodi tren the giCli (PD]) il cittllc gia tiing nhLing ch(un l(f-i va ct-t n~]c12225 t) USD chi tang c6 49 so voillam 2006) thap hdn nbieu so voi rnJc tang22 ella nam 2006 so voi nam 200 Dongv6n FDJ vila cae nen bnn te phat tri6n 88dat mlic 8148 ty USD tang 81 so v(jjnam 2006 Trang (t6 My viin tiep tHe c1tdecoi ]a elja chi thu hut FDI dCing elfiu the gi6itrong giai do~n 2006-2010 Dimp v6n PDIeha) vao eRe nen kinb te thi lrtidng moi n6irhi cia muc 4077 ty USD giam 07 Begt v6iniim 2006 Tuy nhien chiw A diie bi~t laTrung Qu6c vfin tiep tue Iil diGell1 hitjJdlnd6] voi FDI irang nan1 2007 vi Dill] narntiep theo 8ltljJnh~~pva then tinh dtiQC chietoan se tiel) t~c iii hinh t hue driu tLl chin]l tJelc nen linb te phat tr](lllllttirlg hiDl1 tbiicnRy 58 g~p phai nhung c~il1 Lr( l1f~tY c3ngLang do sq 10 ng~lj eua ettC n~iuc tiep nh~ndiiu tti ve nhung tae dong Lieu elie ell hinhthCir nay d6i voi an ninh qu6e gia ball s~cvan h6a va phiit tri~n kinh te Nllung dauhieu danh gia la chi phi va cd hoi eua IiDld lllQt so TIll0C cong nghi~p plft tri6n nhlclJnIjar dang pbflt tri~n d~t 13 CilU hoi vc dleuki~n cua nhung hQp dong aa kj v6i c82 c6ngty da qu6e gia nhi1ng nguy co b8t 6n dia-ehinh tri va kinh te 6 nhieu kim vue bcn thegioi la cd 56 cho nhung di biio k6 tren

Sti mat din b~ng ed ban eua nlnkinh te the giai se viin tiep tfc giatang keo theo su giam gia eiw BillaMy so vai Euro Yen Nh~t Ban va Nhandan t~

Thea IMF nam 2007 tham hut cilil dintili khoan v~ng Iai ella My tiep tue gia tangva cIt toi muc giin7 GDP Trong bili eiinhmue I~m phat 6 My vfrn eao va tang tru0ngcila nen kin11 teMy 5e chijm lai stfgij tangtham hlft nay cling voi stf thu hEP trongchenh lee] Eli suat ella Do la My so voi liiisuat clla Euro va Yen Nhat Eib St khiampella Do ]1 My tiep tve giiJm gil so V01 2ding tien Jlt6tren Du baa Do b MS eoJthii

NhiJng vein ae IltlNriTEVA CHiiifj TRi THEGIGIs6gt(130)2007-------------------- - -- )3

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IIII

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Nguyampn Hong S(j~_

My duai tgt1Cdi)ng eua s giam gia manhvc gi6 t bulli eua d6ng Dola My so vrii eaed6ng tiiln ehu ehot khae do cae nhit cliiutil nuoc ngoai Jllat nieOl tin vaodong bennay n6i 1ieng va nen kinh te My n6i chungNeu dieu nay xay ra von IlllaCngoai 5e a aLehy ra kh6i nuac My vai nhung tac donggay sup diSthi tnlClng cJlung khoan Trongboi canh d6 Fed se buoc phai tang cao laisu1lLva cliel nay se khien cho nEinkinh t(My rai vao suy thoai voi nhung tac clang Ianchuyen tieu cuc tai nen kinh te toim cAu

Thti ba rui ro gidm sut mqnh han d~ttinh eua 3 nifn hinh te lim nhft thegi6i Kinh te My giam sut manh do )nnphat gia tang va gia nha 6 giiim manh honso vai d1j tinh Nhat Ban va khu vuc don)Euro cung se rai vao suy thoai do chinlsaeh tang lai su1lt cllide th1jC hi~n nh31hhan va mnh han muc cln thiet truac s11gia tang cila ap life lm phat Neu diEiunayxay ra cac nen kinh te khac se bi 3 nilhuong day ehuyEin va kinh te the gioi se roivao suy thoai

Cling vai nhung rui 10kii tren la rUl 1Ian 1i)ngva khong kiiim soat cluoc cila dichcum gia clm tai chau A cung nhu nhllngbien dong kh6 JuiJng khae eua thien tai elllajtac di)ng eua hi~n tuling El Nino Tat canhung dieu d6 dang doi hoi cae nha hotchdjnh chinh sach 0 titng nuae phai e6 nhungehinh sach diifu ehinh phu hrJpva linh hOftding nhu mjt mue do eao han trang pMihrp ehinh sa ell giila cae nUr1c

Thu nMt 0 cae ni1n kinh te phat triiinchinh sach tien te duoc d1j baa se tiep tucduc th~t chat diic biet la 0 Nhi)t Ban vakhu v1jc cl6ng Euro Tuy nhien dii trimh rili10 diSva sil th~t chiit nay se phai dien 1amot cach tit tii vai s1j thea d6i sat sao phanung cua thi trudng Suc ep gia tang cua lamphat cl6ng tii1n l1i)idja giam gia cling voi $llgiam sut eua gia nha 0 va tang tru6ng killhte trong boi canh tham hvt kep (thiim buttai khoan vang lai 18n va tham hut ngnn

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trong Lang trlt(jng eLla 11el1 kinh tc the gidi(rong nam 2007 se kIlien eho mt~clam phattden thigidi grim nhe ue tip tue n6m trangtam kilil soat Tu) nhim (j mot so nttacsue tip ea yetl to ney dB vai niin kinh tevan tif[p tue manh Thea lMF nam 2007 tyl~ I~m ph at 6 cae nen kin 11laquo) phat triampn sodat muc 23 gj~m 03 so voi nam 2006Trang d6 ty 10 lam pilat ( My vfrn cao nhat29 va dat truoe CilCn11aho~eh dinh ehinhsclch nual nEl) bal Loan kl16 gili giUH vi0Cduy tri toe c1lt)Ftng lnidng 6n dinh va kiemche I~m phat 6 CgtlCn6n kinh Llthj tnidngmoi n6i va dang phiil tliampn ty IIJam phatse clt 111UC501 gial11 02 ditm phln tlihnvoi nanl 2006 rruy nhiampn ]~ln phat vantiep tUCla m6i (Ie doa dbi voi su 6n dinlkinh tc 6 chall Phi frullg va Dong Au Vfl

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tic) nltoc ngodi tren the giCli (PD]) il cittllc gia tiing nhLing ch(un l(f-i va ct-t n~]c12225 t) USD chi tang c6 49 so voillam 2006) thap hdn nbieu so voi rnJc tang22 ella nam 2006 so voi nam 200 Dongv6n FDJ vila cae nen bnn te phat tri6n 88dat mlic 8148 ty USD tang 81 so v(jjnam 2006 Trang (t6 My viin tiep tHe c1tdecoi ]a elja chi thu hut FDI dCing elfiu the gi6itrong giai do~n 2006-2010 Dimp v6n PDIeha) vao eRe nen kinb te thi lrtidng moi n6irhi cia muc 4077 ty USD giam 07 Begt v6iniim 2006 Tuy nhien chiw A diie bi~t laTrung Qu6c vfin tiep tue Iil diGell1 hitjJdlnd6] voi FDI irang nan1 2007 vi Dill] narntiep theo 8ltljJnh~~pva then tinh dtiQC chietoan se tiel) t~c iii hinh t hue driu tLl chin]l tJelc nen linb te phat tr](lllllttirlg hiDl1 tbiicnRy 58 g~p phai nhung c~il1 Lr( l1f~tY c3ngLang do sq 10 ng~lj eua ettC n~iuc tiep nh~ndiiu tti ve nhung tae dong Lieu elie ell hinhthCir nay d6i voi an ninh qu6e gia ball s~cvan h6a va phiit tri~n kinh te Nllung dauhieu danh gia la chi phi va cd hoi eua IiDld lllQt so TIll0C cong nghi~p plft tri6n nhlclJnIjar dang pbflt tri~n d~t 13 CilU hoi vc dleuki~n cua nhung hQp dong aa kj v6i c82 c6ngty da qu6e gia nhi1ng nguy co b8t 6n dia-ehinh tri va kinh te 6 nhieu kim vue bcn thegioi la cd 56 cho nhung di biio k6 tren

Sti mat din b~ng ed ban eua nlnkinh te the giai se viin tiep tfc giatang keo theo su giam gia eiw BillaMy so vai Euro Yen Nh~t Ban va Nhandan t~

Thea IMF nam 2007 tham hut cilil dintili khoan v~ng Iai ella My tiep tue gia tangva cIt toi muc giin7 GDP Trong bili eiinhmue I~m phat 6 My vfrn eao va tang tru0ngcila nen kin11 teMy 5e chijm lai stfgij tangtham hlft nay cling voi stf thu hEP trongchenh lee] Eli suat ella Do la My so voi liiisuat clla Euro va Yen Nhat Eib St khiampella Do ]1 My tiep tve giiJm gil so V01 2ding tien Jlt6tren Du baa Do b MS eoJthii

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Nguyampn Hong S(j~_

My duai tgt1Cdi)ng eua s giam gia manhvc gi6 t bulli eua d6ng Dola My so vrii eaed6ng tiiln ehu ehot khae do cae nhit cliiutil nuoc ngoai Jllat nieOl tin vaodong bennay n6i 1ieng va nen kinh te My n6i chungNeu dieu nay xay ra von IlllaCngoai 5e a aLehy ra kh6i nuac My vai nhung tac donggay sup diSthi tnlClng cJlung khoan Trongboi canh d6 Fed se buoc phai tang cao laisu1lLva cliel nay se khien cho nEinkinh t(My rai vao suy thoai voi nhung tac clang Ianchuyen tieu cuc tai nen kinh te toim cAu

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(2006) Cedit Suisse (2006)

1

trong Lang trlt(jng eLla 11el1 kinh tc the gidi(rong nam 2007 se kIlien eho mt~clam phattden thigidi grim nhe ue tip tue n6m trangtam kilil soat Tu) nhim (j mot so nttacsue tip ea yetl to ney dB vai niin kinh tevan tif[p tue manh Thea lMF nam 2007 tyl~ I~m ph at 6 cae nen kin 11laquo) phat triampn sodat muc 23 gj~m 03 so voi nam 2006Trang d6 ty 10 lam pilat ( My vfrn cao nhat29 va dat truoe CilCn11aho~eh dinh ehinhsclch nual nEl) bal Loan kl16 gili giUH vi0Cduy tri toe c1lt)Ftng lnidng 6n dinh va kiemche I~m phat 6 CgtlCn6n kinh Llthj tnidngmoi n6i va dang phiil tliampn ty IIJam phatse clt 111UC501 gial11 02 ditm phln tlihnvoi nanl 2006 rruy nhiampn ]~ln phat vantiep tUCla m6i (Ie doa dbi voi su 6n dinlkinh tc 6 chall Phi frullg va Dong Au Vfl

Trung Dong (voi mCL lam phflt theo l11u tuI 1060 )0 79)a 1 0 J 0 d 0

Tlnidng m~i quae te va diu tu tnie tiepmiae ngoai d~u bing tnldng ehm llii

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Thea danh giaIntelligence Unit nam

cua EconOlnist2007 etdu til trUe

tic) nltoc ngodi tren the giCli (PD]) il cittllc gia tiing nhLing ch(un l(f-i va ct-t n~]c12225 t) USD chi tang c6 49 so voillam 2006) thap hdn nbieu so voi rnJc tang22 ella nam 2006 so voi nam 200 Dongv6n FDJ vila cae nen bnn te phat tri6n 88dat mlic 8148 ty USD tang 81 so v(jjnam 2006 Trang (t6 My viin tiep tHe c1tdecoi ]a elja chi thu hut FDI dCing elfiu the gi6itrong giai do~n 2006-2010 Dimp v6n PDIeha) vao eRe nen kinb te thi lrtidng moi n6irhi cia muc 4077 ty USD giam 07 Begt v6iniim 2006 Tuy nhien chiw A diie bi~t laTrung Qu6c vfin tiep tue Iil diGell1 hitjJdlnd6] voi FDI irang nan1 2007 vi Dill] narntiep theo 8ltljJnh~~pva then tinh dtiQC chietoan se tiel) t~c iii hinh t hue driu tLl chin]l tJelc nen linb te phat tr](lllllttirlg hiDl1 tbiicnRy 58 g~p phai nhung c~il1 Lr( l1f~tY c3ngLang do sq 10 ng~lj eua ettC n~iuc tiep nh~ndiiu tti ve nhung tae dong Lieu elie ell hinhthCir nay d6i voi an ninh qu6e gia ball s~cvan h6a va phiit tri~n kinh te Nllung dauhieu danh gia la chi phi va cd hoi eua IiDld lllQt so TIll0C cong nghi~p plft tri6n nhlclJnIjar dang pbflt tri~n d~t 13 CilU hoi vc dleuki~n cua nhung hQp dong aa kj v6i c82 c6ngty da qu6e gia nhi1ng nguy co b8t 6n dia-ehinh tri va kinh te 6 nhieu kim vue bcn thegioi la cd 56 cho nhung di biio k6 tren

Sti mat din b~ng ed ban eua nlnkinh te the giai se viin tiep tfc giatang keo theo su giam gia eiw BillaMy so vai Euro Yen Nh~t Ban va Nhandan t~

Thea IMF nam 2007 tham hut cilil dintili khoan v~ng Iai ella My tiep tue gia tangva cIt toi muc giin7 GDP Trong bili eiinhmue I~m phat 6 My vfrn eao va tang tru0ngcila nen kin11 teMy 5e chijm lai stfgij tangtham hlft nay cling voi stf thu hEP trongchenh lee] Eli suat ella Do la My so voi liiisuat clla Euro va Yen Nhat Eib St khiampella Do ]1 My tiep tve giiJm gil so V01 2ding tien Jlt6tren Du baa Do b MS eoJthii

NhiJng vein ae IltlNriTEVA CHiiifj TRi THEGIGIs6gt(130)2007-------------------- - -- )3

gt

~~~

IIII

I

Nguyampn Hong S(j~_

My duai tgt1Cdi)ng eua s giam gia manhvc gi6 t bulli eua d6ng Dola My so vrii eaed6ng tiiln ehu ehot khae do cae nhit cliiutil nuoc ngoai Jllat nieOl tin vaodong bennay n6i 1ieng va nen kinh te My n6i chungNeu dieu nay xay ra von IlllaCngoai 5e a aLehy ra kh6i nuac My vai nhung tac donggay sup diSthi tnlClng cJlung khoan Trongboi canh d6 Fed se buoc phai tang cao laisu1lLva cliel nay se khien cho nEinkinh t(My rai vao suy thoai voi nhung tac clang Ianchuyen tieu cuc tai nen kinh te toim cAu

Thti ba rui ro gidm sut mqnh han d~ttinh eua 3 nifn hinh te lim nhft thegi6i Kinh te My giam sut manh do )nnphat gia tang va gia nha 6 giiim manh honso vai d1j tinh Nhat Ban va khu vuc don)Euro cung se rai vao suy thoai do chinlsaeh tang lai su1lt cllide th1jC hi~n nh31hhan va mnh han muc cln thiet truac s11gia tang cila ap life lm phat Neu diEiunayxay ra cac nen kinh te khac se bi 3 nilhuong day ehuyEin va kinh te the gioi se roivao suy thoai

Cling vai nhung rui 10kii tren la rUl 1Ian 1i)ngva khong kiiim soat cluoc cila dichcum gia clm tai chau A cung nhu nhllngbien dong kh6 JuiJng khae eua thien tai elllajtac di)ng eua hi~n tuling El Nino Tat canhung dieu d6 dang doi hoi cae nha hotchdjnh chinh sach 0 titng nuae phai e6 nhungehinh sach diifu ehinh phu hrJpva linh hOftding nhu mjt mue do eao han trang pMihrp ehinh sa ell giila cae nUr1c

Thu nMt 0 cae ni1n kinh te phat triiinchinh sach tien te duoc d1j baa se tiep tucduc th~t chat diic biet la 0 Nhi)t Ban vakhu v1jc cl6ng Euro Tuy nhien dii trimh rili10 diSva sil th~t chiit nay se phai dien 1amot cach tit tii vai s1j thea d6i sat sao phanung cua thi trudng Suc ep gia tang cua lamphat cl6ng tii1n l1i)idja giam gia cling voi $llgiam sut eua gia nha 0 va tang tru6ng killhte trong boi canh tham hvt kep (thiim buttai khoan vang lai 18n va tham hut ngnn

Mac dli vampn tang truong C20va clang c6elilu hi0u iw cdnh nh~ nhang sau nhii1unam tmg truong lien tuc nhung trongnanl 2007 nen kinh te thf gioi vampn tieptllC phai doi mat voi m6t Jot rui 10va batbn ti6m tangTid nhai rui 10 tang dot bicn veLkeo

dai eua gia dilu ma duoi tae dong eua SIt

gia tang va Jan rang cua but bn cljnh dja-ehinh trj toan cAu (niii chien trAm tr9nghan ti I1~e man thuampn giua My va Irantang eao xung di)t leo ihang giua lxraen vaPalestin b1lt bn 0 Sudan Chad CongoSomalia ) va su st giam sEm lUling ti dicmo d5u Jon nh1ltthe gioi Su gia tang nay sekeo theo slf gia tang cua gia die hang h6akhae nhu kim loai quy ngu eoc den hiatno dieu nay se khien cho lm phiit gia tangmnh t1en toim the gioi clae bi~t la 0 eacl1fnkinhte phat triii va nhung nEin kinhte dang phat tri4n nhi-p kh~u dAu mo buci~(suat the gioi gia tang mal1h vai hi-u quaWnEinIltinh te th~ giai se rai vao suy thoai voiiihfintac dlt)nggay db vi) day ehuyen doi vaicae tlitiu0ng tai chinh 10111 clu-~ ~

Thu hUl) rrli ro clieu chinh dot bien- -

t-ongJf~ -c(rt tai klwltn viing lai cua

giam gi tei 20 so voi Buro Yen Nhi)tBan France Thuy Sy viI Bang Anh t1ongnam 2007 Dong tiEin nay cling se giRm giaso vdl d5ng tien cila cae JH~nkinh te thitnlClng moi nili dac bi~t la vai Nhan dan t~Trung Quae DI doan trong nam 2007Nilan dan Le co th~ se tang gia tOi 10 sovai Diila MYW) SJ1giam gia cua Dola My segop phtn bn clinh muc tham hut can can tilikhoan vang lai cua My tuy nhien clii1unayse chi tro thanh hi~n thuc neu no dien ra motCael1til til eo tri-th cllu khOng cli)tbien

NhUng 1lli 10 va bat 6n tiEim tangviin tiep tvc hi~n hiiu doi hoi caechinhsach kinh te vi mi) hgp Ii thi-ntr9ng d tdng nen kirII t6 Vpound1 Il1Ue d()phoi hltjp chinh ~aeh can IFin d cap ditOftn c~ia

===-_~=-7~ltDZX C=lIm_~_U~_~ _

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~gt _~ __~ NhiJng vir ae KliH TE VA CHINH TR THE GIOI So 2 (130) 2J~i

Nguy~n Hong Scm

sach) dang thu hPp chong gian eli chin]chinh aeh tien te clla My va dbi lIe) cienhil hoach dinh chi11h sach nuc nily phiiluon thea doi vil phan tich cAn than cae c1lJlieu cung nlni himh dong phli hop voi dinbien cua Lhi t1udng Ben canh d6 viampccungc6 tili chinh giam Lham huL nrim sach vbtangLiet ki(m tu nhan (dac bieL lit a JVInhiim giam tham hut cim can tili k1108nvang lai) (1~dam baa tang t1uong ben viingtrong dai htn cung se tiel tuc OU(iC thtiChien cung vai nhi1ng chinh sach cai cach ((1

cElU(linh hoat h6a thi t1udng lao dong caicach khu vLjc Uti chinh caj each 1 rilingcao hi~u qua hott ci)ng ella khu VIe dichVl) nh~Lnl Cal thi~n moi trtidng va nangcao nang llJc c11htTimh qu6c gia

Thu 1101 d cac nen kinh te thi trudnfmoi n6i va dang ph at t1i~n bili toan daL rtniac cac nhit h08e11 dinh chinh sach Jitphan iing phu hop va kip thdi d6i voi nhl1ngthay o6i cua moi t1udng kinh te Lrong vangoai nuoc M9L trong nhiing nhiem Vlf dt1a lit dieu tieL linh hot ty gia h6i doai Vicho phep d6ng tien noi dia tang gift tronggioi hn phil hop nhilm duy tri sile cmhLranh cila hang xuat khiu (Nga Cae nenkinh LeTrung va Dong Au cac nen kinh tedang phat Lri5n chau A oac bi(t la TrungQu6c) Ben canh d6 d6 duy trl tang trudngben vung t1ong dili htn cac chinh sach caicach nen kinh te thea huang th trudng dnphai dultletiel tuc thuc diiy baa g6m tU caieach thj trudng lao ding cai cach doanh

Chit thieh

ughi(p cai cHch l~ Lh6ng- Uli chiah eho l01cai each h(Lh6ng an sinh xa h6i

Thu hn c16doi ph6 vai nhung rui 10 vallat 6n tiem titng k6 tren ben canh nhlingchinh sach qu6c gia phli hltlpslJ ph6i hltlpehinh sach gii1a cae nuac d6ng vai tro ratquan trltlI1gTrang thdi d-i cila toan ciub6a bnh te va Stl phu Lhui)c Ian nhau ngilydmg gia tang gilla cae nen kinh te thilmhy Lai khoan vang lai clla My siic ep l-mpilat gi8 tang stl gia tang dot bien clla giadtu ma va gia cae kim loimilu khong chi12 van oe eua tung quae gia rieng Ie va dod6 chI c6 th~ dliae giai quyet mit khong gaydeSva va xao trQl1 tren cd sO phfi hQp chinhsfdl gila cac qu6c gia Ch~ng han d~ giamsu malo can biing ca ban toitn du My eiinphili giarn thilm hut ngiin sach tanf tietbem tu nhiin Chilu Au va Nhii-t Ball c1ndjy mmh cii dieh ca dIU cae ngn kinh tethj tnidng moi n6i dae bi~t 18d chilu A candiiy mtnh tieu dung nii dia va quan ly tygiii Iinh hO-than cae nuac xuat khilu dau1110can tang cuong nhii-p khilu va thllc diiyd~u tv va cu6i cling lit von V dam phanDoha ve ttl do h6a thuang mi toan duCllllg crln d1iltlCsam khai thong trCJltinh ampmch6ng lti suc ep eila baa hi) va tranh 51 phthuge qua mue vao cae hi(p dinh tlnicingmi tli do song phuang Bdi vi tT do h6etthliong mi tren co sa lhong phan biltdoi xU min la phliong thite tot nhritnhiim ma ret cae co hiji tang trliang choneuron linh tt toan ciiui

l Jean-Philippe Cotis (2006) Smooth Rebalancing wwwoccciorg

2 Nham doi ph6 vai tlnh trang gia h6a dan so3 Ngan hang Trllng lIang My (Fed) cheu Au Nh~t Ban Ao Thuy Bitn Anh4 Xuat khampu dllu rna cua Iran Trag va Nigeria cQog l~i cao gap 4 hin ltrqng dati rna d~r tfU toan c6u

IMP (2006) World Economic Ourloak Sepcember 2006 Washington DC5 La Caixa Research Department (2006) The Spanish Economy MOlthly Report 112006

November 2006

trong Lang trlt(jng eLla 11el1 kinh tc the gidi(rong nam 2007 se kIlien eho mt~clam phattden thigidi grim nhe ue tip tue n6m trangtam kilil soat Tu) nhim (j mot so nttacsue tip ea yetl to ney dB vai niin kinh tevan tif[p tue manh Thea lMF nam 2007 tyl~ I~m ph at 6 cae nen kin 11laquo) phat triampn sodat muc 23 gj~m 03 so voi nam 2006Trang d6 ty 10 lam pilat ( My vfrn cao nhat29 va dat truoe CilCn11aho~eh dinh ehinhsclch nual nEl) bal Loan kl16 gili giUH vi0Cduy tri toe c1lt)Ftng lnidng 6n dinh va kiemche I~m phat 6 CgtlCn6n kinh Llthj tnidngmoi n6i va dang phiil tliampn ty IIJam phatse clt 111UC501 gial11 02 ditm phln tlihnvoi nanl 2006 rruy nhiampn ]~ln phat vantiep tUCla m6i (Ie doa dbi voi su 6n dinlkinh tc 6 chall Phi frullg va Dong Au Vfl

Trung Dong (voi mCL lam phflt theo l11u tuI 1060 )0 79)a 1 0 J 0 d 0

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cua EconOlnist2007 etdu til trUe

tic) nltoc ngodi tren the giCli (PD]) il cittllc gia tiing nhLing ch(un l(f-i va ct-t n~]c12225 t) USD chi tang c6 49 so voillam 2006) thap hdn nbieu so voi rnJc tang22 ella nam 2006 so voi nam 200 Dongv6n FDJ vila cae nen bnn te phat tri6n 88dat mlic 8148 ty USD tang 81 so v(jjnam 2006 Trang (t6 My viin tiep tHe c1tdecoi ]a elja chi thu hut FDI dCing elfiu the gi6itrong giai do~n 2006-2010 Dimp v6n PDIeha) vao eRe nen kinb te thi lrtidng moi n6irhi cia muc 4077 ty USD giam 07 Begt v6iniim 2006 Tuy nhien chiw A diie bi~t laTrung Qu6c vfin tiep tue Iil diGell1 hitjJdlnd6] voi FDI irang nan1 2007 vi Dill] narntiep theo 8ltljJnh~~pva then tinh dtiQC chietoan se tiel) t~c iii hinh t hue driu tLl chin]l tJelc nen linb te phat tr](lllllttirlg hiDl1 tbiicnRy 58 g~p phai nhung c~il1 Lr( l1f~tY c3ngLang do sq 10 ng~lj eua ettC n~iuc tiep nh~ndiiu tti ve nhung tae dong Lieu elie ell hinhthCir nay d6i voi an ninh qu6e gia ball s~cvan h6a va phiit tri~n kinh te Nllung dauhieu danh gia la chi phi va cd hoi eua IiDld lllQt so TIll0C cong nghi~p plft tri6n nhlclJnIjar dang pbflt tri~n d~t 13 CilU hoi vc dleuki~n cua nhung hQp dong aa kj v6i c82 c6ngty da qu6e gia nhi1ng nguy co b8t 6n dia-ehinh tri va kinh te 6 nhieu kim vue bcn thegioi la cd 56 cho nhung di biio k6 tren

Sti mat din b~ng ed ban eua nlnkinh te the giai se viin tiep tfc giatang keo theo su giam gia eiw BillaMy so vai Euro Yen Nh~t Ban va Nhandan t~

Thea IMF nam 2007 tham hut cilil dintili khoan v~ng Iai ella My tiep tue gia tangva cIt toi muc giin7 GDP Trong bili eiinhmue I~m phat 6 My vfrn eao va tang tru0ngcila nen kin11 teMy 5e chijm lai stfgij tangtham hlft nay cling voi stf thu hEP trongchenh lee] Eli suat ella Do la My so voi liiisuat clla Euro va Yen Nhat Eib St khiampella Do ]1 My tiep tve giiJm gil so V01 2ding tien Jlt6tren Du baa Do b MS eoJthii

NhiJng vein ae IltlNriTEVA CHiiifj TRi THEGIGIs6gt(130)2007-------------------- - -- )3

gt

~~~

IIII

I

Nguyampn Hong S(j~_

My duai tgt1Cdi)ng eua s giam gia manhvc gi6 t bulli eua d6ng Dola My so vrii eaed6ng tiiln ehu ehot khae do cae nhit cliiutil nuoc ngoai Jllat nieOl tin vaodong bennay n6i 1ieng va nen kinh te My n6i chungNeu dieu nay xay ra von IlllaCngoai 5e a aLehy ra kh6i nuac My vai nhung tac donggay sup diSthi tnlClng cJlung khoan Trongboi canh d6 Fed se buoc phai tang cao laisu1lLva cliel nay se khien cho nEinkinh t(My rai vao suy thoai voi nhung tac clang Ianchuyen tieu cuc tai nen kinh te toim cAu

Thti ba rui ro gidm sut mqnh han d~ttinh eua 3 nifn hinh te lim nhft thegi6i Kinh te My giam sut manh do )nnphat gia tang va gia nha 6 giiim manh honso vai d1j tinh Nhat Ban va khu vuc don)Euro cung se rai vao suy thoai do chinlsaeh tang lai su1lt cllide th1jC hi~n nh31hhan va mnh han muc cln thiet truac s11gia tang cila ap life lm phat Neu diEiunayxay ra cac nen kinh te khac se bi 3 nilhuong day ehuyEin va kinh te the gioi se roivao suy thoai

Cling vai nhung rui 10kii tren la rUl 1Ian 1i)ngva khong kiiim soat cluoc cila dichcum gia clm tai chau A cung nhu nhllngbien dong kh6 JuiJng khae eua thien tai elllajtac di)ng eua hi~n tuling El Nino Tat canhung dieu d6 dang doi hoi cae nha hotchdjnh chinh sach 0 titng nuae phai e6 nhungehinh sach diifu ehinh phu hrJpva linh hOftding nhu mjt mue do eao han trang pMihrp ehinh sa ell giila cae nUr1c

Thu nMt 0 cae ni1n kinh te phat triiinchinh sach tien te duoc d1j baa se tiep tucduc th~t chat diic biet la 0 Nhi)t Ban vakhu v1jc cl6ng Euro Tuy nhien dii trimh rili10 diSva sil th~t chiit nay se phai dien 1amot cach tit tii vai s1j thea d6i sat sao phanung cua thi trudng Suc ep gia tang cua lamphat cl6ng tii1n l1i)idja giam gia cling voi $llgiam sut eua gia nha 0 va tang tru6ng killhte trong boi canh tham hvt kep (thiim buttai khoan vang lai 18n va tham hut ngnn

Mac dli vampn tang truong C20va clang c6elilu hi0u iw cdnh nh~ nhang sau nhii1unam tmg truong lien tuc nhung trongnanl 2007 nen kinh te thf gioi vampn tieptllC phai doi mat voi m6t Jot rui 10va batbn ti6m tangTid nhai rui 10 tang dot bicn veLkeo

dai eua gia dilu ma duoi tae dong eua SIt

gia tang va Jan rang cua but bn cljnh dja-ehinh trj toan cAu (niii chien trAm tr9nghan ti I1~e man thuampn giua My va Irantang eao xung di)t leo ihang giua lxraen vaPalestin b1lt bn 0 Sudan Chad CongoSomalia ) va su st giam sEm lUling ti dicmo d5u Jon nh1ltthe gioi Su gia tang nay sekeo theo slf gia tang cua gia die hang h6akhae nhu kim loai quy ngu eoc den hiatno dieu nay se khien cho lm phiit gia tangmnh t1en toim the gioi clae bi~t la 0 eacl1fnkinhte phat triii va nhung nEin kinhte dang phat tri4n nhi-p kh~u dAu mo buci~(suat the gioi gia tang mal1h vai hi-u quaWnEinIltinh te th~ giai se rai vao suy thoai voiiihfintac dlt)nggay db vi) day ehuyen doi vaicae tlitiu0ng tai chinh 10111 clu-~ ~

Thu hUl) rrli ro clieu chinh dot bien- -

t-ongJf~ -c(rt tai klwltn viing lai cua

giam gi tei 20 so voi Buro Yen Nhi)tBan France Thuy Sy viI Bang Anh t1ongnam 2007 Dong tiEin nay cling se giRm giaso vdl d5ng tien cila cae JH~nkinh te thitnlClng moi nili dac bi~t la vai Nhan dan t~Trung Quae DI doan trong nam 2007Nilan dan Le co th~ se tang gia tOi 10 sovai Diila MYW) SJ1giam gia cua Dola My segop phtn bn clinh muc tham hut can can tilikhoan vang lai cua My tuy nhien clii1unayse chi tro thanh hi~n thuc neu no dien ra motCael1til til eo tri-th cllu khOng cli)tbien

NhUng 1lli 10 va bat 6n tiEim tangviin tiep tvc hi~n hiiu doi hoi caechinhsach kinh te vi mi) hgp Ii thi-ntr9ng d tdng nen kirII t6 Vpound1 Il1Ue d()phoi hltjp chinh ~aeh can IFin d cap ditOftn c~ia

===-_~=-7~ltDZX C=lIm_~_U~_~ _

~r~iiL

1 ~~1~18thj_ili~l2~-=-2007 Tier tuc lang Iruong cao trong rui ro I

j

~gt _~ __~ NhiJng vir ae KliH TE VA CHINH TR THE GIOI So 2 (130) 2J~i

Nguy~n Hong Scm

sach) dang thu hPp chong gian eli chin]chinh aeh tien te clla My va dbi lIe) cienhil hoach dinh chi11h sach nuc nily phiiluon thea doi vil phan tich cAn than cae c1lJlieu cung nlni himh dong phli hop voi dinbien cua Lhi t1udng Ben canh d6 viampccungc6 tili chinh giam Lham huL nrim sach vbtangLiet ki(m tu nhan (dac bieL lit a JVInhiim giam tham hut cim can tili k1108nvang lai) (1~dam baa tang t1uong ben viingtrong dai htn cung se tiel tuc OU(iC thtiChien cung vai nhi1ng chinh sach cai cach ((1

cElU(linh hoat h6a thi t1udng lao dong caicach khu vLjc Uti chinh caj each 1 rilingcao hi~u qua hott ci)ng ella khu VIe dichVl) nh~Lnl Cal thi~n moi trtidng va nangcao nang llJc c11htTimh qu6c gia

Thu 1101 d cac nen kinh te thi trudnfmoi n6i va dang ph at t1i~n bili toan daL rtniac cac nhit h08e11 dinh chinh sach Jitphan iing phu hop va kip thdi d6i voi nhl1ngthay o6i cua moi t1udng kinh te Lrong vangoai nuoc M9L trong nhiing nhiem Vlf dt1a lit dieu tieL linh hot ty gia h6i doai Vicho phep d6ng tien noi dia tang gift tronggioi hn phil hop nhilm duy tri sile cmhLranh cila hang xuat khiu (Nga Cae nenkinh LeTrung va Dong Au cac nen kinh tedang phat Lri5n chau A oac bi(t la TrungQu6c) Ben canh d6 d6 duy trl tang trudngben vung t1ong dili htn cac chinh sach caicach nen kinh te thea huang th trudng dnphai dultletiel tuc thuc diiy baa g6m tU caieach thj trudng lao ding cai cach doanh

Chit thieh

ughi(p cai cHch l~ Lh6ng- Uli chiah eho l01cai each h(Lh6ng an sinh xa h6i

Thu hn c16doi ph6 vai nhung rui 10 vallat 6n tiem titng k6 tren ben canh nhlingchinh sach qu6c gia phli hltlpslJ ph6i hltlpehinh sach gii1a cae nuac d6ng vai tro ratquan trltlI1gTrang thdi d-i cila toan ciub6a bnh te va Stl phu Lhui)c Ian nhau ngilydmg gia tang gilla cae nen kinh te thilmhy Lai khoan vang lai clla My siic ep l-mpilat gi8 tang stl gia tang dot bien clla giadtu ma va gia cae kim loimilu khong chi12 van oe eua tung quae gia rieng Ie va dod6 chI c6 th~ dliae giai quyet mit khong gaydeSva va xao trQl1 tren cd sO phfi hQp chinhsfdl gila cac qu6c gia Ch~ng han d~ giamsu malo can biing ca ban toitn du My eiinphili giarn thilm hut ngiin sach tanf tietbem tu nhiin Chilu Au va Nhii-t Ball c1ndjy mmh cii dieh ca dIU cae ngn kinh tethj tnidng moi n6i dae bi~t 18d chilu A candiiy mtnh tieu dung nii dia va quan ly tygiii Iinh hO-than cae nuac xuat khilu dau1110can tang cuong nhii-p khilu va thllc diiyd~u tv va cu6i cling lit von V dam phanDoha ve ttl do h6a thuang mi toan duCllllg crln d1iltlCsam khai thong trCJltinh ampmch6ng lti suc ep eila baa hi) va tranh 51 phthuge qua mue vao cae hi(p dinh tlnicingmi tli do song phuang Bdi vi tT do h6etthliong mi tren co sa lhong phan biltdoi xU min la phliong thite tot nhritnhiim ma ret cae co hiji tang trliang choneuron linh tt toan ciiui

l Jean-Philippe Cotis (2006) Smooth Rebalancing wwwoccciorg

2 Nham doi ph6 vai tlnh trang gia h6a dan so3 Ngan hang Trllng lIang My (Fed) cheu Au Nh~t Ban Ao Thuy Bitn Anh4 Xuat khampu dllu rna cua Iran Trag va Nigeria cQog l~i cao gap 4 hin ltrqng dati rna d~r tfU toan c6u

IMP (2006) World Economic Ourloak Sepcember 2006 Washington DC5 La Caixa Research Department (2006) The Spanish Economy MOlthly Report 112006

November 2006

~~~

IIII

I

Nguyampn Hong S(j~_

My duai tgt1Cdi)ng eua s giam gia manhvc gi6 t bulli eua d6ng Dola My so vrii eaed6ng tiiln ehu ehot khae do cae nhit cliiutil nuoc ngoai Jllat nieOl tin vaodong bennay n6i 1ieng va nen kinh te My n6i chungNeu dieu nay xay ra von IlllaCngoai 5e a aLehy ra kh6i nuac My vai nhung tac donggay sup diSthi tnlClng cJlung khoan Trongboi canh d6 Fed se buoc phai tang cao laisu1lLva cliel nay se khien cho nEinkinh t(My rai vao suy thoai voi nhung tac clang Ianchuyen tieu cuc tai nen kinh te toim cAu

Thti ba rui ro gidm sut mqnh han d~ttinh eua 3 nifn hinh te lim nhft thegi6i Kinh te My giam sut manh do )nnphat gia tang va gia nha 6 giiim manh honso vai d1j tinh Nhat Ban va khu vuc don)Euro cung se rai vao suy thoai do chinlsaeh tang lai su1lt cllide th1jC hi~n nh31hhan va mnh han muc cln thiet truac s11gia tang cila ap life lm phat Neu diEiunayxay ra cac nen kinh te khac se bi 3 nilhuong day ehuyEin va kinh te the gioi se roivao suy thoai

Cling vai nhung rui 10kii tren la rUl 1Ian 1i)ngva khong kiiim soat cluoc cila dichcum gia clm tai chau A cung nhu nhllngbien dong kh6 JuiJng khae eua thien tai elllajtac di)ng eua hi~n tuling El Nino Tat canhung dieu d6 dang doi hoi cae nha hotchdjnh chinh sach 0 titng nuae phai e6 nhungehinh sach diifu ehinh phu hrJpva linh hOftding nhu mjt mue do eao han trang pMihrp ehinh sa ell giila cae nUr1c

Thu nMt 0 cae ni1n kinh te phat triiinchinh sach tien te duoc d1j baa se tiep tucduc th~t chat diic biet la 0 Nhi)t Ban vakhu v1jc cl6ng Euro Tuy nhien dii trimh rili10 diSva sil th~t chiit nay se phai dien 1amot cach tit tii vai s1j thea d6i sat sao phanung cua thi trudng Suc ep gia tang cua lamphat cl6ng tii1n l1i)idja giam gia cling voi $llgiam sut eua gia nha 0 va tang tru6ng killhte trong boi canh tham hvt kep (thiim buttai khoan vang lai 18n va tham hut ngnn

Mac dli vampn tang truong C20va clang c6elilu hi0u iw cdnh nh~ nhang sau nhii1unam tmg truong lien tuc nhung trongnanl 2007 nen kinh te thf gioi vampn tieptllC phai doi mat voi m6t Jot rui 10va batbn ti6m tangTid nhai rui 10 tang dot bicn veLkeo

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gia tang va Jan rang cua but bn cljnh dja-ehinh trj toan cAu (niii chien trAm tr9nghan ti I1~e man thuampn giua My va Irantang eao xung di)t leo ihang giua lxraen vaPalestin b1lt bn 0 Sudan Chad CongoSomalia ) va su st giam sEm lUling ti dicmo d5u Jon nh1ltthe gioi Su gia tang nay sekeo theo slf gia tang cua gia die hang h6akhae nhu kim loai quy ngu eoc den hiatno dieu nay se khien cho lm phiit gia tangmnh t1en toim the gioi clae bi~t la 0 eacl1fnkinhte phat triii va nhung nEin kinhte dang phat tri4n nhi-p kh~u dAu mo buci~(suat the gioi gia tang mal1h vai hi-u quaWnEinIltinh te th~ giai se rai vao suy thoai voiiihfintac dlt)nggay db vi) day ehuyen doi vaicae tlitiu0ng tai chinh 10111 clu-~ ~

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~gt _~ __~ NhiJng vir ae KliH TE VA CHINH TR THE GIOI So 2 (130) 2J~i

Nguy~n Hong Scm

sach) dang thu hPp chong gian eli chin]chinh aeh tien te clla My va dbi lIe) cienhil hoach dinh chi11h sach nuc nily phiiluon thea doi vil phan tich cAn than cae c1lJlieu cung nlni himh dong phli hop voi dinbien cua Lhi t1udng Ben canh d6 viampccungc6 tili chinh giam Lham huL nrim sach vbtangLiet ki(m tu nhan (dac bieL lit a JVInhiim giam tham hut cim can tili k1108nvang lai) (1~dam baa tang t1uong ben viingtrong dai htn cung se tiel tuc OU(iC thtiChien cung vai nhi1ng chinh sach cai cach ((1

cElU(linh hoat h6a thi t1udng lao dong caicach khu vLjc Uti chinh caj each 1 rilingcao hi~u qua hott ci)ng ella khu VIe dichVl) nh~Lnl Cal thi~n moi trtidng va nangcao nang llJc c11htTimh qu6c gia

Thu 1101 d cac nen kinh te thi trudnfmoi n6i va dang ph at t1i~n bili toan daL rtniac cac nhit h08e11 dinh chinh sach Jitphan iing phu hop va kip thdi d6i voi nhl1ngthay o6i cua moi t1udng kinh te Lrong vangoai nuoc M9L trong nhiing nhiem Vlf dt1a lit dieu tieL linh hot ty gia h6i doai Vicho phep d6ng tien noi dia tang gift tronggioi hn phil hop nhilm duy tri sile cmhLranh cila hang xuat khiu (Nga Cae nenkinh LeTrung va Dong Au cac nen kinh tedang phat Lri5n chau A oac bi(t la TrungQu6c) Ben canh d6 d6 duy trl tang trudngben vung t1ong dili htn cac chinh sach caicach nen kinh te thea huang th trudng dnphai dultletiel tuc thuc diiy baa g6m tU caieach thj trudng lao ding cai cach doanh

Chit thieh

ughi(p cai cHch l~ Lh6ng- Uli chiah eho l01cai each h(Lh6ng an sinh xa h6i

Thu hn c16doi ph6 vai nhung rui 10 vallat 6n tiem titng k6 tren ben canh nhlingchinh sach qu6c gia phli hltlpslJ ph6i hltlpehinh sach gii1a cae nuac d6ng vai tro ratquan trltlI1gTrang thdi d-i cila toan ciub6a bnh te va Stl phu Lhui)c Ian nhau ngilydmg gia tang gilla cae nen kinh te thilmhy Lai khoan vang lai clla My siic ep l-mpilat gi8 tang stl gia tang dot bien clla giadtu ma va gia cae kim loimilu khong chi12 van oe eua tung quae gia rieng Ie va dod6 chI c6 th~ dliae giai quyet mit khong gaydeSva va xao trQl1 tren cd sO phfi hQp chinhsfdl gila cac qu6c gia Ch~ng han d~ giamsu malo can biing ca ban toitn du My eiinphili giarn thilm hut ngiin sach tanf tietbem tu nhiin Chilu Au va Nhii-t Ball c1ndjy mmh cii dieh ca dIU cae ngn kinh tethj tnidng moi n6i dae bi~t 18d chilu A candiiy mtnh tieu dung nii dia va quan ly tygiii Iinh hO-than cae nuac xuat khilu dau1110can tang cuong nhii-p khilu va thllc diiyd~u tv va cu6i cling lit von V dam phanDoha ve ttl do h6a thuang mi toan duCllllg crln d1iltlCsam khai thong trCJltinh ampmch6ng lti suc ep eila baa hi) va tranh 51 phthuge qua mue vao cae hi(p dinh tlnicingmi tli do song phuang Bdi vi tT do h6etthliong mi tren co sa lhong phan biltdoi xU min la phliong thite tot nhritnhiim ma ret cae co hiji tang trliang choneuron linh tt toan ciiui

l Jean-Philippe Cotis (2006) Smooth Rebalancing wwwoccciorg

2 Nham doi ph6 vai tlnh trang gia h6a dan so3 Ngan hang Trllng lIang My (Fed) cheu Au Nh~t Ban Ao Thuy Bitn Anh4 Xuat khampu dllu rna cua Iran Trag va Nigeria cQog l~i cao gap 4 hin ltrqng dati rna d~r tfU toan c6u

IMP (2006) World Economic Ourloak Sepcember 2006 Washington DC5 La Caixa Research Department (2006) The Spanish Economy MOlthly Report 112006

November 2006

Nguy~n Hong Scm

sach) dang thu hPp chong gian eli chin]chinh aeh tien te clla My va dbi lIe) cienhil hoach dinh chi11h sach nuc nily phiiluon thea doi vil phan tich cAn than cae c1lJlieu cung nlni himh dong phli hop voi dinbien cua Lhi t1udng Ben canh d6 viampccungc6 tili chinh giam Lham huL nrim sach vbtangLiet ki(m tu nhan (dac bieL lit a JVInhiim giam tham hut cim can tili k1108nvang lai) (1~dam baa tang t1uong ben viingtrong dai htn cung se tiel tuc OU(iC thtiChien cung vai nhi1ng chinh sach cai cach ((1

cElU(linh hoat h6a thi t1udng lao dong caicach khu vLjc Uti chinh caj each 1 rilingcao hi~u qua hott ci)ng ella khu VIe dichVl) nh~Lnl Cal thi~n moi trtidng va nangcao nang llJc c11htTimh qu6c gia

Thu 1101 d cac nen kinh te thi trudnfmoi n6i va dang ph at t1i~n bili toan daL rtniac cac nhit h08e11 dinh chinh sach Jitphan iing phu hop va kip thdi d6i voi nhl1ngthay o6i cua moi t1udng kinh te Lrong vangoai nuoc M9L trong nhiing nhiem Vlf dt1a lit dieu tieL linh hot ty gia h6i doai Vicho phep d6ng tien noi dia tang gift tronggioi hn phil hop nhilm duy tri sile cmhLranh cila hang xuat khiu (Nga Cae nenkinh LeTrung va Dong Au cac nen kinh tedang phat Lri5n chau A oac bi(t la TrungQu6c) Ben canh d6 d6 duy trl tang trudngben vung t1ong dili htn cac chinh sach caicach nen kinh te thea huang th trudng dnphai dultletiel tuc thuc diiy baa g6m tU caieach thj trudng lao ding cai cach doanh

Chit thieh

ughi(p cai cHch l~ Lh6ng- Uli chiah eho l01cai each h(Lh6ng an sinh xa h6i

Thu hn c16doi ph6 vai nhung rui 10 vallat 6n tiem titng k6 tren ben canh nhlingchinh sach qu6c gia phli hltlpslJ ph6i hltlpehinh sach gii1a cae nuac d6ng vai tro ratquan trltlI1gTrang thdi d-i cila toan ciub6a bnh te va Stl phu Lhui)c Ian nhau ngilydmg gia tang gilla cae nen kinh te thilmhy Lai khoan vang lai clla My siic ep l-mpilat gi8 tang stl gia tang dot bien clla giadtu ma va gia cae kim loimilu khong chi12 van oe eua tung quae gia rieng Ie va dod6 chI c6 th~ dliae giai quyet mit khong gaydeSva va xao trQl1 tren cd sO phfi hQp chinhsfdl gila cac qu6c gia Ch~ng han d~ giamsu malo can biing ca ban toitn du My eiinphili giarn thilm hut ngiin sach tanf tietbem tu nhiin Chilu Au va Nhii-t Ball c1ndjy mmh cii dieh ca dIU cae ngn kinh tethj tnidng moi n6i dae bi~t 18d chilu A candiiy mtnh tieu dung nii dia va quan ly tygiii Iinh hO-than cae nuac xuat khilu dau1110can tang cuong nhii-p khilu va thllc diiyd~u tv va cu6i cling lit von V dam phanDoha ve ttl do h6a thuang mi toan duCllllg crln d1iltlCsam khai thong trCJltinh ampmch6ng lti suc ep eila baa hi) va tranh 51 phthuge qua mue vao cae hi(p dinh tlnicingmi tli do song phuang Bdi vi tT do h6etthliong mi tren co sa lhong phan biltdoi xU min la phliong thite tot nhritnhiim ma ret cae co hiji tang trliang choneuron linh tt toan ciiui

l Jean-Philippe Cotis (2006) Smooth Rebalancing wwwoccciorg

2 Nham doi ph6 vai tlnh trang gia h6a dan so3 Ngan hang Trllng lIang My (Fed) cheu Au Nh~t Ban Ao Thuy Bitn Anh4 Xuat khampu dllu rna cua Iran Trag va Nigeria cQog l~i cao gap 4 hin ltrqng dati rna d~r tfU toan c6u

IMP (2006) World Economic Ourloak Sepcember 2006 Washington DC5 La Caixa Research Department (2006) The Spanish Economy MOlthly Report 112006

November 2006

Nguy~n Hong Son

G Xem C~the Thai Markel l~ou~t The Global GllShcr wwveconomistcom

7 Thea d~r blo ella GEeD muc lailg truong n1J1l2007 eua M5 lil 24 Khu lc dong Euro li 22 vitNh~t Ban Iii 22(0 wwwoecdorg

8 Thea dlr baG 613 VB nam 2007 tang truong eua Trung Quoe va An Dq chi d~t mUG 87 va 72(theo thtf tu) giam 09 va 05 citm phan tram so vo nam 2006 WB (2006) Prospecisfor rhe GlobalpoundCOIIOIl1) Washington DC

9 Xem cy the Nguyen Tr9ng Hoai (2006) On dflli fun pllll eili gia phdi Ira

wwwbusinessllOtlinccomvn 102007 A1r) nlim nguy hill d(j l(i lie kinh Ilfoda (du wvvwvietnamnetcomvn 31l22006

Tai li0u than1 khito chinhJ A discusion on Global Growth in 2007 with nobin Bew Editorial Director the

Econontist Intelligence Unit lvweconornistcoffi2 La Caixa Jesearch DcpaytlJ1ent (2006) The Spanish Economy Monthly Report

] 72006 November 0063 2007 Mot no nguy hicn c16vdi win kinh at iOcincdlt wwwvietnamnetcomvn

ngay 311220064 Credit Suisse (200G) Global Economy This Weeh 20072008 Forecasts

5 Economist Intelligence Unit and The columbia Program on InternationalInvestment (2006) Press release September 5 2006

6 Finance Yahoo - )ttnllfinancUBhooamp9m7 IMF (2006) Global Financial Stability Report 2006 September 2006 wwwimfo1g

B IMF (2006) World lconomic Outlooll September 2006 wwwimfo1g

9 Jean-Philippe Colis (2006) Smooth Rebulancing wwwoecdorg

10 London Gold Fixing Market Ltd11 Morgan Stanley (2006) Looking to 2007 wwwmorganstanleycom12 Mussa Michael (2006) Global Economic Prospects Institute for International

Economics September wlVwiiecom13 OANDA - The currency site httpwwwoandacom14 OEeD (2006) Economic Outlook 80 database wwwoecdorg

15 OEeD (2006) OECD Preliminary Outlook wwwoecdorg

16 The Economist (2006) Thai Market Route The Global Gusherwwweconomistcom

17 UNCTAD (2006) Trade and Development Report 2006 Global partnership andnational policies for development August 2006 wwwunctadorg

18 WB (2006) Global Economic Prospects 2007 wwwworIdbankorg19 Nguyen T1on[ Boai (2006) On dinh lam phcit ccii gici phai tra

wwwbusincsshotlinecolllvn

26 -------- -- NI9 vj 6amp JI~~H1( VA CHiNH TR THE GIGI s6 2 (130) 2007