/' ' <I'

ATTACK 0':l iRRIGATm}[b4~tS ltv/NORTH KOREA,

:bc ti"ust hpoq QS, 'str<ing~ir. f,,~,es 'iopeing, pt~perly ,organized, controlled, .nd, Clhp!oyed,will be, d),k,~ytC!)':'Y}~IQ'!Y ;~gaJlJ.1t,a m~~iye I~n,d power with unlimi.ted military res<ir\,~;" 'Xu. :r~sn.~rC:e~" "11':1. g~pl!r.pl!ic 4epth", ',,','

1'hc, Toksan.Cha~,\n:·\-trlk~s,,':,lh' th'ern!\~Jve~,i", were, ()rdi~arx".in#~rdict~on m'is· sions mUlzing conventiorfrll 'ordllal\6e 'andrO,!!ine 'itlterai~tioti"tacticS, But their: teal meaning to" thbenemy ;~jelllmedfrorn 'thevaJue: 6,1 'the target ntt;t~ked"relative to ,his' qv~r.al1 abili~y 'to, continue ,n,tili~ary! resistance.' This real p}~,~W,rli t~~,F;9mlll1jri"t~:JllUyi4nd~,r.toodr eVel1i if(/ielessol1i,has beeu. ob$(:u're ,to, us. " " , ,':,' .' I ' , . \ ,

'General Weyland, c'ommanclcr of :FEAF, has, termed thetoksan,Chasan' ,strikes 'one of the most' 's-ignif1c3.;nt' ,air,:,6peration$ ~n·the Korean war.,::", 'If" 'hisiory":,prdves ,'th~m,,~o ,have, b~eri.",~he de,~is,h:'e pfcssure ,:w~ich prod!Jc,ed- 'aI) ; imniq~jat~, signi I1g,:o£ th~,' a,r~i~t.'i~:c" ~hen: cehainlY' ,they ,:were'",a lesson of

ill1portance to ourp",ss ~,nd:~!I~r~~~Tt9,?~~f~~ur¢. ,., ... ' I' ". ' . " Air' University Quarterl~Revie1Jl

I':"~i; d"f;:A'~' ,U:'i ,:,' ,.,", """"",~), ",':"

"

/ Appendix ~o

\ '

Dikes and Other Hydraulic Works Which North Vietnam.Claims Were Attacked By U. 's. Planes From Maroh, 1965 to Auguat, 1967

(From Foreign Languages Publ1shingHouse, 1968)

I - Dams

I. La Nga dam (Vinb Unit). JttlYl967

2. Be reservoir (Quang Binh). Marclt and Sep­tember 1<)65. JI~ne. July and August 1966

3. Cam Lydam (Quang Binb). June and August 1967 , "- .'

4. Do Luong dam (Ngbe All). March and Septem-ber 1965. April. June, and July 1967

, 5. Nam Dan barrage (Nghe An). July 1967

6. Khe Cal hydraullc building yard (Ngne An). March 1<)67

7. Bai Thuong dam ("fha-nit Boa). April - Sep­tember 1<)66. July 1967 ' , 8. Ban Thach dam, (Thanh Boa). Auliw;t 1005-

JUly 1967 ' ,

9. Dong Soc dam (Ba Bac). July 1<)67

'10. SlIoi Hai reservoir (Ha Tay), September 1<)65. July 190

II. Thae Ba dil. m (Yen Bai). April and .September 1966. July 1967 .

11- Dikes and water reaulation systems

I, Nortll Nghe' An hydraulic syst¢m):Match­September 1<)65. 1966. July 1967,

2. About ,one hundred' water-regulation works , , (Nghe An), July 1965

I 3. Hung Phong dike (Nghe An) March and April

1<)67 '. .

109

4, l.am ~iver dike (Nghe An), July 19&' '.' " " " . '\, ' '. '. . ',\

.5. Ma. River ~Uke (Thanh Holj.). Jqnu~ry';'" JUJl." 1967 ',,, ." .' i

6. Len River di~e (Thanh l}o:t~, JanQ.rY",;]'!1I!e, 1967, . ,) I, 'i.i

7. Quan Yen dike. (1'hanh.Hoa),JartualY -'Jpil~'! 1967' .. .

8, Ninh Co dik" (Nam Ha), June 'J967 . .... . 9. Dike 5ystemprotecting PhuLy to~itancl:N~m' Pin)]. City (Nam Hal. June J967 , .'

10. Tra Ly River dike. system (Thai ,Binh). M.ay

1966 - August 1967 .', Il. LlIoi Vu River <like (Hai 1'>1!o'1g), Jupe 1m 12. Thai Binh River dike (ilai Duong). '~q~~J~

" j" ',p \!,: , , ' '. ',,:.,",' , " I .. ,i,:'

13. Ha Dong River <1ike(Quang Ninh); }1ebruaty..i AUguStlg66 .'. , ' '',

:. J4:TiertLang and Vinh13oodikes(HaiPh,otlg). ,]UlYIg66 ' i' i' • ,

I ' : ' " ',,' l'

i 15., Dong Trieu dike (Quart~ Niilh),J\llYW67 '

i 16jcau River dike (Ha Bac). Jl1nel967 I ' . • ,

" r:j. Thuol)g River. dike (Hal\8c). JU,ne" and July 1907, " .' , " ',' . i ,:

18.' Hong Riyer dike (Ha Tay). July 1967 .. i" 1

19~ , Wa ter reg!11a tion syste.~ (Viuh Phuc); :;July. 196V 20. Cali River dike (Vini!, Phuc). July 1967 . 2I.Ha Thach dike (Phu,Tho). July xg(~ 22 .. lam Thao ,dike (Phu Tho},. February.Septelllr

ber 1966

23. pay River dike (Ninh Biph), February-Septel1\ . ber'I966 ( I

24. qiang, Bien dike (I;Ianoi). AuguSt,t967

25. Duong Ri~er dike (Hanoi), April 1967

, ,'. i 26. Nhat Tan dike. (Hanoi)~ August Ig66

110 /

, '

"

111- Sutntnary ofattllcks on D.R.VIN. dikes and', otherhydrauUc works" from March 1965 to August 1967

',,;!)P'01ll 'MarcTI 1¢5 ito August 1966: 1.500 attacks on dikes and hydraulic' systems in 17 provinces and h~aulic wllrks in ~oprovinCes.

2. 1967: 1.300 attacks. to i"·:.',

a) up tolhe end 01 J fIIW : .,', ~ 1:", \" . , ,i " .' • •

650 attacks on: -,29 dIke systems 10 17 proVlOces ,.,... 28 other hy!iraulic works in 20

provinces.

b) /'0111 jltly to /Jecelll/Jer :

liSt> att<\cksori 42 dikes and 9ther hydraulic works bpo province~.'

IV - Comparaison of attacks from March 1965 t6 AUl!ust'1~67 ' '". '..'

, • II, 'J 1 ' ,

DBte Number Number Number ~l1mber Number NU'IIbe,r

01 ' of of of of of reser ..

!d' , , 'dikt~ , , dam. pumP , sluices , Yo:iti, target~' iWctions ' at- stations at· irr;lalioa

" "t· ,tacked at· tackccl . cln"ls,

" ,

tacked tacked elc. .,. , iIi ;...w.-~ , :; .. t,eked 'J . '-----.;. ---i965·66 '31 '33 3' • '1 ~3'

1967 3V1I "': ,177

'I"~ 48 , ,,8 116 .p

r" ' , "I,' \-

, , ,

J,'. '.

111

\

APPENDIX THREE

We,at.her Modificatioij.

1. 'STATIC AND DINAMIC SEEDING lESCRIBED

Clouds fall 'into two broad cat.egories for purposes of rainmaking, warm clouds and supercooled clou~s. , The t.emperatures of warm cloud tops are still above the freezing point of impure water (32 F.). Supercool!,d cloud tops are, higher and much colder. Temperatures in them range between the freezing point of impure'(i. e., ordinary) water and the mucll lower freezing point 'of pure (i.e., distilled) water, or from 32 P. to' -4011. "ost, of the water in such clouds is still in a: liquid fo,.,. because it is so pure. When water droplets in a supercooled cloud come into cont.act with a 'dust,~~rticle or an ice crystal they immediately freeze. The most. cOIDon Wal'lll clouds are stratus clouds, though cumulus clouds can aho be low enough for their tops to",relliain above freezing. The most common supercooled ClOuds are cumulus clouds. The hugh thunderheads on a sumfuer' afternoon are supercooled cumuli.

Warm Clouds

Techniques tor seeding warm olouds are much less well developed than t.echniques for seeding lI11percooled olouds (1). The basic approach with warm clouds, :l.s a "statio" one I(il). contrast t.o the "dynamio" app~o,a~~ sometimes used with supercooled clouds). It is,:to, provide suitable nuclei around which the fine dl'oplet.s

, ' ,

112

in a cloud can condense; If enough condensation occurs, the new drops will be heavy-enough to falll to the ground as rain. (Droplets ,smaller than abc.ut halt a lI\illill\eter in. diameter are so light that they reDin airborne indefinitely under nOrlll&l conditiolllS.) At, present there is much interest in uliling coMmon 81alt to see warm c:Louds. But other,hygroscopic- i. e~ water absorbing-- agents are also being investigated. (Such agents swell up when exposed'to water vapor.) Seeding can be carried out from ground based genera1~ors which blow spray or fine dust into,the air, or'by ,

, plane. Biswas reported an apparently successful lon,g , term experiment in warm cloud seeding in India. But" as we saw in chapter five, his results have been discredi ted. More recent work has focused upon', individual cloud8~ We know of no recent eXperiments seeking to increase rainlall over an entire season by means of W1\rm cloud seeding. Besi,des raillDl&king, there ,has been, great interest in finding ways to dissipate warm clouds. This is because such clouds (low stratus) account for about 95"per cent of all, fog. The literature on this subject is vaste, and we will not go into it here.

'Supercooled Clouds.

Two approaohes are used with supercooled clouds (2). The first is similar in principle to warm cloud seeding. Here too the aim' is to introduce suitable condensat,ion, nuclei into the cloud. But instead of trying to provoke the growth of large water drops, the goal is to cause some of the supercooled droplets (supercooled because they are ,still liquid at a temperature below 'the normal freezing point of impure water) to crystallize into snowfl~e8 which grow until, they are large enough to, fall to the ground. This, wil,l happen if the riBht impuriti"s are injected into the cloud. To be effective in small quantities they must either possess a crystalline structure very similar tel that of water ice, or be cold enough to freeze the supercooled droplets instantly upon ,contact. Both silver iodide dnd lead iodide pos~ess the right crystal structure. ,In effect, they serve as a

113

"template'," on which water mole cull's are lined up in such a'way that they bond with, each ot\ler and form the latti,'ce structure of, ice.* Under ideal conditions the effect of introducing silver iodide into a cloud is quite dr~lIJIatic. Great numbers of ice crystals are created.' More watiar precipitates around these crystals. And in a short ti!me a great deal of snow can tall from the cloud. The air' temperature below determines whether or not it reaches the ground as water. Dry ice functions differently. It is cl)ld enough-- -llO F.-- to cause supercooled ' droplets to freeze upon contact. These frozen droplets then 'be come the nuclei around which other droplets freeze. In geDflral, dry ice is a less effiCient seeding agent than s:ilver iodide or lead iodide. The most common materir&l in use these days is silver iodide.

C:louds can be seeded with silver iodide or lead iodide from f~round based generators or from the air. The iodide compollUlds are ~urnt, producing a smoke containing, great quantities of crystals some .001 to .1 microns in diame ter,' Dry ice is less versatile. If it: is used, nedt.ng must be done from the air.

try

pynamic Seedins.

As we have seen, static approaches to cloud seeding to provide a cbud with nuclei aroUJld which its

I

l

* Jq1. hOY such agent, function as t.emplatu may be clearer frolll the toHorine IADalogy. ' IIIIaSiD ..... ea.rdbolLl'd box full ot tqy railroad cara. ,Merely shaking the box .. is:orously b Dot likely to couple IIWlY of them toge'ther. But suppose one could in_troduce some lengths ot lD&fO.etbed track into the carton, 80 that whenever,,, eU' ,'la.nded squar,ely on It. piece of tnek it would Dot be able to fllll ott it, ~t could on~r roll back and forth OD the rail, while 'the box vas sbaken. Then, alter a whU .• , lIIIore thaD. one car would vi~ up on the same track, and &tter bumping into' bid tach·' other a tey tim •• tbe tvo ca.r. would b. coupled. Well, v.ry roughly,' aOIll\.thing like thh happens with wat.r mol.culu when they ar$ lined up on .. crYAltallne template. It catches aQd holds them. And just as in the toy train example, ¥bell a vater mOleoule hit. the template, it slows down while the template vibrates wi 'loh the shock of impaot. 'l'bia 'ribration caus .. the template to interact more ... i,urously with the air molecules which an ,constantly bomba"ding it'in the box. AI H nault, air molecules colliding with a vibrating template rebound from their col:li.ions at slightly'higher .peed. than air moleculeo COlliding with nOD_vibrating tem}llatea. Since the faster air 1Jlt)1eeuies move, the "va.rmer" the air, this me&r.11 that the pl'locua ot, caudna water to cryatalhe into ice ~rei84s" heat (the' 80 .. CG.11e4 heat. ot iushion). When va cliscuas dynamic aeeclin; &Ad hurrican • • odi.~ic&tion, va rill .e. tbat. Ws rd ..... ot b.at is.' crucial.

114

water drop~ets can condense into ice. The production of heat which accompanies the crystallization of water is incidental. Matters are reversed in dynamic seeding experiments (3). Here, the aim is to produce as much heat as ,possible iii order 'to erihance the convection processes in a cloud which are responsible for making it grow. As a result, enormous amounts of seeding material are used in comparison ;to static 'techniques­kilograms of silver iodide compared to grams,per cloud. Under suitable conditions ~he results are spectacular. The seeded cloud grows 2 or 3 kilometers higher In a matter of minutes and, since rainfall is correlated with cloud size, sUbstantial increases in ' rainfall are recorded (see chapter five for discussion). D,ynamic seeding as practiced by Simpson is most effective when a stable dry layer of air in the mid~, troposphere (20,000-26,000 feet) separates two zones of unstable moist air. Stable layers are deadly to cloud growth. These are regions'where- in contrast to unstable layers- the temperature changes very slowly with increasing altitude. As a result, "The rising cloud air, when passing through such a layer, is subjected to a downward force." (4) A cloud encountering a stable layer frequently stops growing. If, the layer is low enough...,. as is often the case­the cloud never becomes big enough to produce much rain. The effect of dynamic seeding is to warm the air in a "stalled" cloud enough to increase its

, buoyancy and allow it to rise through the stable layer to the moist" unstable layer above Which is present during ideal clo~ seeding conditio~s. ,D,ynamic seeding is ineffective on rainy, humid days when all clOUds grow naturally, ahd during drought conditions when the stable dry layers are too wide and too dry. '

115

\ 2. EFFECTIVENESS OF STATIC SEEDING METHODS

. We shall not go into increases in snowfall due to static seeding, (5) As for static seeding of super~ cooled cumulus clouds, the 1966 report of the National Academw of Sciences on weather. modification was tepidly optimistic:

. Experimental and operational evidence relating to stimulation of cumulus precipitation remains highly confUSing. The Panal's evaluation of 14 operational silver iodide seeding projects in the eastern , United States, including but not limited to . cumulus' clouds, indicate variable rainfall increases averaging about 10 to 20 per cent in the nominal targero.areas. A recent . follow-on study made at the Panal's request suggest/! comparable increases .up to 150 miles'

'downwind of the targets. (6) '.

But· .the Panal lu!"s been accused/of 'giving in to tile. commerical cloud seeding industry and toning dllwn the much more 'negative conclusi'onsexpressed in its. plleliminary 1964 report. (7) Still, mattershave iiDpl'oved considerably sinQle, 1966, . and there is now.a fai.r!,orpu$ of evidenoe that statt.c, seeding CIIn upon ocoasion. iM.rease pr decrease rainfall. . Table 12 lists some of the best of these expefiments. (8) Just why static seeding should. sometiD!lls increase and sometimes decrease tainf,!l. ~s by no means'clear., Until it, is, static see.ding will remain a rather 'risky venture •. (9)

\

116

'sOble, re,cent sta~il!,i.:fcal:1y ,aipltioalit 'I!ta.~io oIou,d seed-iug expe~ilDen1;. (o .. dintl of ."inter .ll:ovatOI'fllI Dot included). SeediDlr ,vaa>4oile :l;ly afrorat:t, ',to Iu .. "'; ArizoflA, ud T~e~ia.J ehe,..bere growid ba,ed. ,eneratoro vore' u.ed..

'LooatiQD te&1' Dur8:t~oD H'&ill C,ollllllloDl.:-' Experi"llt Etteots

Be,.:.o. •• RdRlall

Svlizerlallda 19'1 1 +~1

(Groasverauch Ill) Stfdln, 'only doue OIl' day, v4,n tbWLde"etor.. hAd 'b_en pred1O,.04 til."', nigM. betor •• ()yel'~;U inor •••• durlDC,AprlJ-Ootobor ••• din, p.riod.e Dot know.

tn .. l b 1961 , +18" +28 OYerall, int.rlor.

TalJII&Di"o 1964 1 +15-20 In autumA and vint.r. po .. ibl, ,.ducitiOD 1. 'Wlller.

Arizonad 19'1 7 -3.

Miuouri' , 196() -5), -)9, _24 . Area di1'8oo'U)" beneath (Proj.ot Whitetop): p.th ,of s.eding p1' ...

above plu. area to eaob .ido. above plu. &r •• • till furtb.r fro.' pluae expooted· 11010 to be effuted b7 , ... atoa .•

, santa aarbara;' 1967 3 +)2"

a. P •• 141, "t:vo ,tail. Yhea.'.nsult8, are ~rtratitied 'by :we .. thes:­oondi"tiQn., and t,orecaaters, highly dgui'tioant ofto,ot. are' found.. Se. t"ble U ,tot, e!Campl .. , (10).

b. p..~ .027, 'on. tl.il"~ ~OO9t ,ono' taU, r .. p,otl~'I)' (11).

I o~, ',P.', .Q3," 'o~. ,",1'1 ~ '.02, o~e t.a~I:; depen4int OD,tbe:''-' '.ta4isica1· ~"'" u.s~,d (U-).

d,. "P .... 06, 1;vQ'tail. OIl rainy day,:the,:dQetoeas, iD'ralnfall .from', aee~li~8' vei, 34" ,(p. ,0),' t.vq taU). On daya \/be.l:hth" viD4~ were not. tro'lll ,the' Dorthve.t 'the d~oreaae,,''\f&' 4G:C (,. .03, tvo ,tal~) •. No .. eding·na carded- out' ,in '196j: (13).

117

•• P • • 00)4, two tail, .150, tva tail, and .060, two U11,

relpoct.i,..l,y (14)~ ,

t. \ An overall IIlgnifica.noe l.vel is not reported. Instea:d,

significanoe levela for 'each rain ga~ge station in the test area'

~e liven. The seeding effect vas found to be significant at the

.05 18vd at .. sizeable minority of the ata-ti-oaa. -Ybon only

weather conditioni: deemed suitable ,for sutiill-g are examined

- (the passage of convu,Uve banda over a )500 toot ridge in the

Sant.4 Ynn mountains) tht' overall 'horuse in rainfall vas a.bout

5<»' (15). .

One ot these experiments-- Grossver~uch 111-­

deserves particular mention. As table 13 shows, real~

large increases were recorded on days with southerly

winds-- the principle sources ot moisture in the region-­

and stability la.yers. (16) Should similar conditions .

frequently occur throughout the Red River basin during·

th!t sUllllll8r, static seeding might be able to cause

substantial waterlogging. .

TABLE 1)

IUu",' ot seeding at Ticil'lO on rainfall _leevbero on days vi tb and wi tbo:ut stability layera, southerly winds at the 1500 meter level.

~. with UAinbibltea updrafta Dl.18 y~th sta.~ilit,y layers

.... f. r f. r Cb .... (~ Tailit4) Chance (Tvo Ta.Ued)

~tU'iob -27. .)' +116 .004

~.uo~te1 .... ." +64 .060

tiduo _35 .2) +106 ~,018

"'.ola -45 ~11 +33 '.33

ToIrl. '+16 .n ... 9) .063

H'laD • 29 ... ,:*,." •• 2

·.lcle~a -43 .23 • 9 .81

o."ova + 1 .,8 " ~ .8'

118

, Finally, let us see how the increases reported in

, ta.1>le,s i,2'a.nd 13 compa.re ,t.o , those ,which would 1>e,lieeded ,to induce,llIa.ssive floods in tile IRed River delta.. (17)\ I

\ '

,

TABLE 14

J'>er cent _incfeMG in averagfJ, cubnthly, re,inf,.,ll ne~ded to produce flov of vater .,in ·tbe Red Rivt\r equd for 'on\! mont.h to the -flov level's during the flood .• of' 1913, .1915, nne: -1926.0. "

I Year of Flood It entire ·Red River

basin seeded (are~ 144, 1,00 aq uaro kiloliletere)'

If,North Vietnameae portiow ot Red River basin seeded (area: 59,400 .• quare. kilo.etera)

1913

1915

19Z6

+850;( ,

+94"

+84~

I '

+2cttfo

... 2)~

+205% \ I

a. A.a~ing that .: giTen pel'. cent iQoreaa~ i~' rainfall, yill lead to the S$.(Il8 'per cent i,nerellou, io',atre" tlov, This is .. OODeerva-tive assumption. RUJlo:oOtf u.ually'l,ncreo.aoff',t.ater than pt&aipitatio,il. .

Clea.r1y" even, i,f the entire wa.tershed cou~d 1>e seeded";" whiohjustm~ght 1>e poss.i1>le (seethe final section of 'thil1 Appenclix)- stat;j.c techniq~eswould fa.ll fa.r short of generating enoughwa.te.r. iThe,' only possi1>le exoeption' .are the' Grossversuch III result,S reported in ta.1>le 13. But we l:UI.!Ve been upa.'1>leto determine the tota.l pel'oent ofa.11 rl\inta.~l which fell on seeda.1>le da.ys wi,th sta.1>ili 1;yla.yei's a.ndi!o~thl\rly winds'. And, unlesstha.t is,known.; " no ,overa.11 estima.te of the effectiveness of the seeding' ea.n ,'\1" made. ., '\

1\s, for yea.r~ wi'thunusua.llyhigh,rainfa.U .to 1>eg~n with, 'the prospectsfor.,static seedi~ I\lje,somewila.t 1>etter.Given a. 40 percenta.bove normal a.nomoly,

, a.nother, 49. per' ,c~nt.incre~se .overthe entirewa.tershed , , wo,ul.d'suitice . togenera.te a.sm\1ch wa.ter a.,flowed through the" RedRhh ,in .1913 01'1926. (There is 80llle

, , , ' • - • ' I

",I

"", 119

:.~ ,

evidence that rainfall is 40 per cent above normal one year out of six.(19)·) Stil,l, given thll erratic consequences of static seeding- and the· difficulty of achieving good coverage in the southern Yunnan part of the watershed-- the prospects for inducing serious flooding by means of it seem most unlikely. Indeed'. it is quite possible that total rainfall over the. basin might be decreased, as appears to have been: the case 'in Project ~1hitetop and in Arizona..

\

3. IS THE U. S. STEERING TYPHOONS TOWARD· NOR'fH vIETNAM AND SOUTHERN YUNNAN PROVINCE?

The mos1; "efficient" way of inducing massive flooding in North Vietnam would be to divert typhoons over the Red River's Chinese and North Vietnamese watersheds. (~O) Widespread waterlogging would aho, follow in the wake of'fnY typhoons aimed at North Vietnam. No experiments seeking to alter a hurricane's cQurse have been reported in' the 'literature. But a number ,of suggestions about how this might be done have been made.

Warm Water

Of the ,forces believed to determine a hurricane's tracl,t, water temperature is thought to be the weakest. Fast moving hurricanes (velocities over 15 MPH) may be induced to change course by a few degrees beca~se of diff,erences in surface water temperature (hurricanes tend to follow channels of warm water). Slower storms (speeds under 15 MPH) may be more greatly influenced by surface water temperature. (21) Most typhoons in the South China sea are relatively slow moving, averaging under 13 MPH. (22) And, as figures 24 and 25 show, even mod,est shifts in storm paths could greatly increase the number of typhoons striking the, Red River delta and regions to the north. '

\

Two ways have been suggested for altering the temperature of the ocean in front of tropical storms. (23) The first involves stirring up colder water from the 150 to 300 foot level to mix with the warmer surface layers. " ••• (sly dragging a long cable strung between two submarines, or even towed

121 ,

·122

.. ' ,

';.\i

.'-..... 0.,0

PIGURE 24

T,tphoon ~ac~ in Indoohina 1910-1928

(From Braak .•. 193-1) I· ," ,

, I

CHI N E

.. ,'

PlGURE 25

Average Typhoon Tracks Month by Month

(Prom Bouau1t and Lataste, 1932) OCE;AN PACIFIQUE

by two tugs, the surface temperature could be lowered by several degrees." (24) The second approach relies on monomolecular films which strongly inhibit evaporation. Such films" ,have been used successfully on resevoirs to conserve water. D,y interfering with evaporation they slow down heat 'exchange and, in effect, reduce the surface temperature. Ten years ago films had been devOloped which could withstand winds up to 20-)5 knots. Should films able to withstand hurricane force winds ha~e been developed in the interim, covering the sea in front of a storm might cause it to weaken. If only ,part of this area were covered, the storm might be deflected in the-direction of the uncovered z,one. Leaving open a channel of open water between two large patches of film might also be effective. The ~ounts of chemicals needed would be l.~rge, but not necessarily prohibitive. A fleet of 30 0-1)0 (Hercules) aircraft would be able to spray some 1500 to 1800 gallons of film, or enough to cover a ' rectangle 100 miles long by 120 miles wide.

Ooriolus ,Force

-The Coriolus force is not really a force at all in the usual sense. It is appli.ed to a number of ~ffects which are caused by the earth's rotation. One of the se­the northward accelerating force (in th~ Northern Hemisphere)- plays an important role in determining the path of hurricanes and typhoons. The force is not constant. It becomes stronger as one goes north. This variation introduces a northward bias in a storm's movement. The effect is small for small storms and large for large storms where, of course, the differential is largest: "... for the aVllrage, large, intense hurricane occasionally observed in the Atlantic, the error caused in a forecast by omission of this accelerating force would be about 25nmi (nautical miles) for 24 hours and 100 n mi for 48 hours. For the small immature but intense hurricane, the error would be less than 10 n mi for 24 hours. Only for the very large typhoon with a radius of about 600 n mi does the error become significantly large compared to errors from ,other

\

sources.'l' (25) ,What' is key in this' is that, the Coriolus force 'introduces a northward acceleration in\the storm's' track. Even ,a small change in ,sizenlaintained over a period of a we,ek or two can lead to ;'11. large ,change in course. 'Anadditionalnc)rthward acceleration of only

,1 mile a day contihui!!.g for 20 days leads 'to a net ,northward di splacement of 200 miles ~ T,a.ble 15 IIhows the north~rd accelera'ti,on ef,ltimated to be cau,sed by the variation of the Coriolui; force a(lross a hypothetical young" immaturehurrioane, and for "typhoon Doris on May 8, 1950and May 12, 1950. (M') (North Vietnam lies around 1ati tude 20 north.) , ' , ,

\ ,

,\ PeAk wf,nd. '(!!I'D")

E)'ltY$ll diameter (~il .. )

Storm , diamete, .

(Illiln)

t.e.tUqde

Nort;b~ \, · ... ccelera.tion due 1,0' ellaAge of Cbril>lu,s" torce'V;f.th latitude (1Di~ .. p'or day)

(

l~

' .. ~ ,

V&rta~iotl., :01, n~rth~rd '&~ce1e~o:tion' ~uo to Coriol~8 torce vitb 8i~e of storm and la.titude.

/, I~tiJre boris Storm (May 8)

75 80'

, 3' 80

\346 690

ID N. IO·N.

1 ,~

" .'

;,

,','

:;h ( 12)"

ll8

lU

1380

20 N.

17,

125

, ,

Thus, if a way can be found to change the size of a tropical storm by a significant amount, it may be possible to bias it's movement toward certain directions. A size increase should r~inforce .the

, northward tendency. A size decrease should we ru-.e n it.

No experiments specifically attempting to change the . size of a, tropical s~otm have been reported in the' literature. But the techIlique used to diminish the peru-. velocities of winds in a hurricane used by the U. S. government's project stormfury may result in small size shifts. The reasoning behind the techIlique i$ given in the next. few paragraphs. (27)

Winds are accelerated in,a hurr1cane in much the same way as ~ter fs accelerated in a whirlpool. In both cases avor"tex forms which moves slowly at its edges a.nd rapidly at its cel).ter: apything caught in it spirals inward toward the center with ever-

;

incre9lsing velOCity!. In. "the case of water draining out of a basin, the fluid is ·sucked downintll the vortex wi "thin the drain. Wi th a hurricane or typhoon it is / a.s if the vortex were inverted. The violently accelerated air ·i" not drawn. down into the sea. Instead it is ejected.into. the stratosphere. As;i.n " the case of a whirlpool, the point of maximun rotat1onal velocity- i. e. windspeed- occurs just outside the throat of the v:ortex,. In a hurricane. this re~ion is known as the eyewall, a bank of dense clouds which ,surround "the eye of the storm.

Suppose now tha.t we had Iil,omeway of 'altering the diameter of· the throat of the vortex. Uthe diamet.tw.teincreased, this wOu~d beequivalel1t to a. twirling ice skl!.ter extendillB hie arms in orderw slow down I ,the energy of the system would' be distributed over a. larger area and the rate of maximun rotation would' diminish. Similarly, if "the throat of thec;1rain were narrowed, this would be equivalent 1;0 the iOe ,skater preuing his arms a~a:i.nst

, hh body;, ' the 8.p.gnla1".,momentum of thll system would now be,ooncentrated in, a s!D&llerarea, a.nd the rate of max11J11!U'rota1;iondvelocitywould increase., Thus, if SOllie wa.ycouldbe found<to redistdbute the energy

. 1n a b,1U'1'icane ,'by altering its size, 'one coulC} hope

126, ,_ I

I . Ii

to change the peak velocity of its winds. This has been the tack followed by Project Stormtury in three hurricane seeding experiments in 1961, 1963, and 1969. (28) .

As in the dynamic cloud seeding experiments, the Stormtury strategy has been to find a "lever" in the ma.chinery of the hurricane where a small application of energy .can lead to a disproportionately large effect. In dynamic seeding the lever turns out to be those situations in which a slight increase in cloud buoyancy will allow a cloud to break through a stability layer and continue its growth. With a hurricane the lever involves the eyewall itself. Its diameter ~s controlled by the pressure gradient across the storm. The steeper the drop in pressure as one approaches the eye, the smaller the. eyewall and- all other things being equal- the more intense the storm. Massive seeding just outside the eyewall raises the air teDiperature there by a few degrees. (29) Since warm air rises, it is lighter. Hence, the seeding leads to a small drop in pressure just outside the eyewall. This pressure drop­expected to be on the order of 6 millibars- causes the wall to expand in diameter, thereby displacing the zone of maximun wind velocity outward. Theoretical calculations suggest that this should lead to a 15 .to 20 per cent drop in peak windspeeds.

In practice, the stormtury. experiments are "encour.aging" but not yet conclusive. Sma.ll drops in peak wind speeds followed the 1961 and 1963 eXperiments. Much more intensive seeding was done in 1969- 39 kilograms ot silver iodid!! a· run, 5 runs a day- and temporary wind speed drops were much greater.* Indeed the peak wind velocity fell 31 per cent following the first day's seeding, a greater drop than that observed in. a comparable pllriod in all but 2.5 per cent of the many hurricanes which the project has monitored. After another set of seeding rUns, thewindspeed drop waS smaller (15 percent), but the eye diameter increased by about 10 miles. Moreover, there is a hint from the .

* One plane a.ccompl-hhed all the seeding on a gtven r\ll1. Sud108' va. c&J' ... ~.4 out a.t two hour intervals on August 18 and August 20. On tho 19th. the .-tom reintensified, .UBia'stin,. that it typhoons 'can be steered b;y tbea.' teohniques, thfy rill baTe W Of 'a.tlded continuously lor loDS period. of U.e.· '

127

publish&d data that the overall cross sectional diameter of the storm may have increased, a.t lea.st after the second series of seeding runs •. Still, if the seeding did have an effect on the storm's direction, it was too small to be detected. (30) But this is hardly surprising. Hurricanes are notorious for the variability of their tracks. Detection of any but the largest systematic effects due. to seeding will require an enormous number of experiments. (Far more likely will'be that predictions about changes in track will fallout of the much more complicated models of hurricanes now under development. ,(31) ) .

But this is not all. The same model which predicts a fall in wind velocity from seeding just outside the wall, predicts an equally large increase in wind speed if seeding is carried out elsewhere. (32) For this to happen the cloud _11 would have to be drawn closer to the center of the storm, redllcing its . cro$s-sectional diameter, and possibly causing an overall decrease in the storm's size. Thus, seeding to increase peak wind speeds-- an objective which could be "justified" on independent military grounds-- might weaken a storm's northward bias. As figures 24 and 25 show, this kind of seeding could be particularly effective against North Vietnam. Many typhoons fall short of it because they curve to the north too soon. (33)

None of this, of course, is more than speculation." At present it i's not even clear that seeding cafi lower a hurricane's peak winds, let alone' increase them, or effect a storm's direction' of movement. Moreover,. it must be emphaSized. that the manipulations which we have postulated would only tend to bias a typhoon in a particular direction. At most, then, they would lead to an increase' in the average number of. storms reaching North Vietnam . and southern Yunnan each year. True, increasing that average hr. 50 per cent (from 7 to 3 in the case of North Vietnam) could have serious effects. And increasing the number of .typhoonsreaching southern Yunnan would be an especially effective way of increasing the chances of serio.us floods in the Red River delta. But

128

distinguhhing even a 50'per cent increase in average tNquency trom natural variation will rl!quire yi!ars ot observation.' netween,191Q-1934-- the only period to.r which we have been able to tind a Yl'lar by year breakdown..... an averageot 1.8 typhoons struck North Vietnam every year. Yet, as tl!-ble 16 shows, only 6 ot the 25 years were "normal" years- i. e." were years in which 2 typhoons wer~ recorded. (34)

TABU: 16

Typboopa striking Nqrth Vi&tnam (Tonkin) 1910-1934

Number, per yea.r (M~ to November)

• 1 2 3 4

•

NUmber of ye.ars during this period

5' 8 6

, 1 3 2

Thus, proving that a given technique actually causes a change in storm path is even more dJtticult than proving by experiment that a particular cloud seeding technique. actually causes an annual' increase in. raintal.l. still, the. military may tind the South China Sea a good place to experiment. Bes~des the typhoons which .strike North Vietnam, an average ot 3.6 other typhoons reach ortorm in the South China Sea and go " elsewhere. (35) Further to the east, ill the ~illipinu, the nWllber of· typhoons which head. wutward., toward. Chiu., lnd.oneli .. , Auatra1ia, ,and IndOQhina is prodi,ioue. Discrete experimentation here might materially increase the number ot storms whic.h reach the. South Chin." Sea.. And belides typhoon~, there aren~ end of w~aker tropical disturbances. which might,' with suitable~ . tao~niques, pe,causad to fntens;l.ty into tUll-tledged tro'pical cyclones. (Some ten ottheea weaker storms hit North Vietnam's coast every year. (36» In any ,event, bst year's typhoon season was exceptional by .any standards. No less than nil1e typhoons had struck North Viet~' s coa.st by the end ot JUlY. (37)

. , , I ,

, 129

4,. IS CHINA BEING.AFFEC1ED BY U. S. SEEDING OF NORTH VIJilTNAM ANP !:.A0S? I'

\ :

~ere is now considerable evidence that theieffects of. static seeding extend tar beyOnd the taJ;get area •

. Ta.ble J7 summarizes some of it:

LoO"tiOD

.' 1\'

SVJ.:tzel'land '()'S') (Grouv.rauoh ~1I) .

.......... ~)9)

,,1nourl ('40) (Pi'oJ,.,~i; Whitetop)

,130

\

.I

TA8LB 17

so.al,ng effecta outside of target &re,,~' in .tat-ie .• e.dh~s .experiments.

I

. EmRIMENTS IN WHICR "'" 'EffECT IS STATIS'1'ICALLI ,SIGJUFICANT

}.fea. dfected

Cb ..... ..oribable "'. tall.ad .- '~ ••• .410' pl'obi.bilitT

~O mil •• (~utich) 120 miles (N,e\lcb~tel)

651 IIIUU ('lia.lbU~ Ihtlch)

RegiOD .x~nding up to 180 ~l •• , from a •• dioe Ben.ratora All,W" '

, On W8 vUh l&1"g. dect •• iua in ,target area. (No falling

. ,ott of eft:ect wi tb 4ie.ta,Q(le atter '0 mil .. )

l,EXPERUIENTS nr walCH 'l'HE '" EVID£NOE IS 'sq'GG£5TI~ '.'RA~R ~"CONCLUSlVE

.n6lC .004 .... ". .060

.4o,c "O~"

.2'" .065

.4o,c ....

so~'e r .. ~~ aaJlS8', .ta~iOi.:s, ~oW: dp",tio'ut' (.po. ~O" 'on. Will'.''',., lU8', increase's :I.'" rAinfall up -to 100-1)0 milea dOvnYiD,d from seediq. \ ,,' "

" , '

/' , '

.006"

Victoria. Au&tralla and Vea~rn Australia (42)

Comparison vith 40 year base line data OD rainfall aUB, •• t. pockets of rainlall inorease up to 200 1I1.1es do~iad.

.A:nalyaia 01 16 ope~ati~na1 cloud Beeding'programa

IQdicatioDa of lACrea ... up to 150 .U .. 40VllVfad.

tp tho Eastern U.S. (43)

An$.lysia' of four long tOl'1ll cloud Bee ding programs in the Vcstorn U.S. (44)

Seeding ot winter st01'lllS O"cr the ~ckee .. Taboo catchmont area_of 1he Sierra Nevada aountai'ts '(45).

Strong indleaUon. 0' inereallu up ~; 100 .Uu dowvind. A 8U88911Uon of a t~ird &l',.a of iaorflaae 254 11110. downwind.

Silver Iodide frOlD loeding .... ti ... deteoted in precipitation up to 100 mil .. dowov'ind.

a. SigniNcance level de_ on at.1'at'it1oaUon method used.

At least some of this downwind effect is probably due to the physical trans;port of I.eeding. material, or-to ice crystals produced,by the sleeding material. (46) Silver iodide rapidly loses. its ettectivenessas a seeding agent in the open air. But this decay is sometimes slower under cloudy cOllditions or at night. Nighttime ice nucleating activity from lIilver iodide crystals released 75 to 150 mile's upwind is quite likely, " ••• particularly with dynamic' are...;seeding experiDlents in which. tens of kilograms of {,!ilver iodide] lbaybe released in a day's work." (47) As for ice crystals produced by silver iodide (and ,therefo~e containing a silver iodide crystal in them)w they " ••• could conceivably be carried for ver,ylong,distances by upper winds before fal;Ling int,o supercooled clouds to act as nucleating agents.II(48JI .

In both tropics and, temperate latitudes "o~han anvils" fro,M natural cumulonimbus clouds (cumulus cll)uds which are prodlic'.I.ng rain) are fo~d se'treral hundred miles •. Jld III8IIY hours from th,eir site of origin. (49)

131

Thus, since iihe ;prevailing winds during the raiuy >season are from, the' southwest, it is extremely likely that seeding materh.l released over northern Laos, North '1'ietnem, 01'-- for that matter- northeast Burma, will find its way into eo\uthern Yunnan aDd southern Kwangsi p:rovince in China.* Moreover, migration of dynamically s(leded clouds (as opposed to non-precipitating "orphan aJllvile" produced by tll,.ell) is also likely. In south Florida Simpson has tl~acked seeded clouds 50 miles beyond th.e target 'area which were still producing raiDtall. (51)

Proof that seedi~t material is falling on China can , be' obtained ,by, analysiL\g the silver content ot ground water, aDd rain~ter. The most sensitive techniques developed so far are At,)mic Absorption and Thermal Neutron An"lysis. (52) Many kin\Cl.s of microorganisms are ex;lremely sensitive to s,mall concentrations of silver, ancl'. some marine animals lare kn\>WD to concentrate silver in tlleir tiuues. ' Subtile changes in silver concentration are likely to show up he~e first.(53)

Showing thatAmeric8~ seeding material is significantly affe,cting south China's weather will be much harder. At ' best" the most one may bl, able to say is that the observell devi.~tions from the mean n\ight be due t.o seeding. Natural varta,bility is just too gnat to allo\{ one to say more witho'd being able to comp,are a long run of ,years in which seeding agents have 'been detected to histo,rical raintnll patterns. ,Forth:ls reason'we believe it will be safest to establish the int4rnational,precedent that t~e de'tection of seeding ag,ents in rainwater or ground water lls presumptive evidence that raiDtall is being a'tfected. No non-belligeren\t would tolerate radioactive dust dr,ifting ,across its bor~a.ers from a llear-by war. Then w~ should it tolerate the possibility that its weather is being' affected by geophysical warfare in a neighboring Q01llltry? Yet, if it waits t,he five, ten, or fifteen ~ars tha\t might be necessary to document the presence of even m!oderately strong efte'cts on its rainfall

• The pI'.va.iUng summer wind tlo'" off the coa.st of northern North VietJ1lUD aDa E~D8ai provin~. is fro. the southea.st. Thus, large tract. of Chinese and Nortb Vietnamue t.rl~itol't could, be seeded using atatl c technique'a, by plan .. tlyinl ott .hor. 'or by', T .... h ontain; in the South CI1in& s.a ('0).

132

(inC:t'eases 01' dec:t'eases of 10 01' 20pe:t'~en:t),' it will be too late ~ Tlle damage, will be don!'.

, Fo:t' all these :t'easons we think that it would be ext:t'emely useful if China would invite an inte:t'national fact-finding body (pe:t'haps sponso:t'ed by the United '

.Nations) to visit ¥unnan and Kwangsi p:t'ovinces fo:t' the pU:t'poses of detecting, seeding mat,!:t'ial ill :t'ainwate:t' and in f:t'eshwate:t' lakes and ponds. The 'g:t'oup could also examine climatological data oD the off-chance that statistically significan'j; effects on :t'ainfall tl:t'eady exist. Pe:t'haps' if this precedent we:t'e set /lOW, while geophysical weapons a:t'e·in thei:t' 'infancy, the potential inte:t'national complications of thei:t' use in wad'&:t'e would encou:t'age the g:t'eat pOwli:t's to outlaw them. That· this is at least :t'emotely possible is sugg.ested by the:t'epll:t't that, t.he Ame:t'ican govnnmentwas st:t'ongly'divided about whether to int.:t'oduce :t'"inmaking weapons into Indochina in 1967. According t.o SeylnoU1' Hush, the State Department . a:t'gued against t.he.m p:t'ecisely because, of the dangei'ous p:t'ecedent which -they would set.(~4) A

APPENDIX POUR

1960 Population ligures and !adcul tural Calebdar tor

Korth VietDlUi

1. 1960 PaPULATION PIGVRES BY l'ROVINCE (PROM CENTRAL CENSUS SmERIHG C<HII'l'lD~ 1961 AND VO, 1967)

Zone population Deneity/Km2

ThaiIh·Hoa 1.598.261 Nabe An . 1~221,842 Tha.i Binh 1,164.763 864 NAIll DiDh 1,027,358 808 hi Duoug 894,208 434 Ha Doug 882,537 668 Ha Tinh 689,349 Bauoi 643.576 IIwI4r Yen 605,539 738 Vinh Phuc. 593,183 Baa GiaDC 523,352 Baa HiDh 520,787 ' 591 Phu Tho .505.672 Ha ,Ham 480,039 5'11 KiDh BiDh 459.875 ltien An 442,875 716 Thai .... o Autonomou&! Zone 437,552 13

1~

ZOJUt Population Density/Kn\2

Son,Tay 380,563 412 Haiphong 369,248, Quang Binh 342,569 Thai Nguyen ,290,255, • J 'I" ',88 Cao Bang .r 274,069 J!8

,Lang Son 262,956 Hoa Binh 236,041 Hit Giang 199,229 24 Hong Quang 171,428 Tuyen Quang 154,206 Yen Bai 146,924 hi Ninh '144,7·24, ),' :'"

Lao Cai ,', 102,491' , Bac Can '85,964 16 Vinh Linh 65,514

TOTAL 15,916,955 100a ":'f'

" ,''> '. t ' ";;." , ," -:,.1 .

a. The av~rli.gedensit~per:sqtia.re kilometer !,

in the coastal and delta zoiles is 621;il1' ' the hill region it is 205;' ;'!i;n the mountainous,' areas it is 33. " .,',::

"', -

2. CROP CALENDAR (PROM NAVAL INTELLIGENCE DIVISION, 1943 ~D,DUONG, 1970) .

Novembllr: harvest of tenth month rice'

December: plant dry cultures (corn, soybeans, etc.) and plant industrial· crops (jute; 'etc.) .' '"

lanuary: tranllplanting, of fifth month rice

February: transplanting of spring rice and spring industrial crops . '.

May-June: barves't of fifth month rice', 'followed bybarvut of spring . ' rl.ce

Late June. to Early August: transplanting' of tenth month .dce ,

FOOTNOTES

Chapt.r One

1. This disouaoiontoUows Kolko (1970) very cl0 •• ly. ~.o App.ndix One tor his ••• ay,. The appendix a1,o contain. extraot' from. the official lJ.: S •. study ot the .. tt .. ok. on the irrigation clam. ch.d by Kolko~

2. Quoted'by Kolko(1970), ~. 22'-226.

3 •. Quoted tro .. ,,"," ottici&l tran.odpt ot the n.". contoronoo by Anthony Lori. (Now York ~i..... Juc. 26. 1972), .

4. So. the long po ••• go cited by·Cb .... 1t,y in Dutt.tt (1970). P;xx.

Chapter Two

1. Vo (1967). l" 9 tor total area ami tor amount ot oultivated laml (~.137 t .1111oll-liItot&r •• ). s •• U. S. Dept. of Agriculture (196'), p. 8 tor per cent >f(:~'i:~ of ta1'll1aml in lovlaml.. ·t'. ' ,

" 2. s •• Nev York TilDe. Alunao (1972), p. 813 for 1970 popula.:tion estimate . .(;,; (21.2 "illion). Vo (1961). l" 26 for per •• nt of population li .. ina.in delt&$"i,~ Qoa.t .. l plains; Gourou (1936), p. 28 for ~t.l are. ot the Red River d,lta. (1'" .. ,.' IlliUio" he.taros). ami Il>id •• p. 401 to. an eBtillate of the tot61 oultivated .1',& ot the Red River delta. (1.1 .Ulion hectares). POI' the amount of limd dey~·~ed to the J1,lJl8 (950,000 hectar •• ) and November (1.4 millioD· hectare.) crop., 88';~,~:;:{,; Traa (196 .. ), p. '1. POI' the .. ount of land in the ~d River delta ,given ov.r.:~~ th ••• orop. (150,000. hectares aDd 950,000 hectares, respectively), ••• Gourou~ (1936). p. 401. About 79 por .e"t ,of the June crop and 68 por •• nt of the " .o,"abel' 1"101 orop ar8. Il"Own ~D the Bed River delta. In 1957-1962 the average :..,;' -"'" field lor; the· JUDe orop ft8 1.7' .etric tOOl per hectare, &Del the average yi.l~-;,\:-· tot-the' Novomber crop Y&B 2.15 ... t.ic t.ns p •• heotar. (N~" (1964), p. 119I'f'~

." ,. ~'

3. Robequain (1929), p. 333. The figure is clo.er to 7 per cent if one uses';' ~ the exact value of farmlaml given by Vo (1967). (Se. footnote 1.)

4. Se. Gourou (1936), pp •. 28-37 for a brief overview of the difterent regions of tho lied River delta.

5. !,!!!., p. 65.

6. Gourou (1940). p. 77.

T_~" NaYal" In.tel1isence Division (1943), p. 273 compares the Chu-Ma and":Ba networks to tho lied RiVer syste". Rob.quain (1929). supplies a wealth of detaiied­lDfotmation about the Ch~ delta in Thanh Boa. TYPhoon frequency deerea.es ._~o"ly as one, move. south. 10 the l' year }leriod 1912-1927 24 typhoons ',struck thf Goa,t, betwe;o Nghe,' An province and the, Chinese-border, 11 typhoons struok the po •• t. between 'Nahe, An and:' Bue, and there were·7 :typhooILs recorded to:, the loutb'"ot BU._'4 . (The~.demarkat1on'ot the.e thre .. regions"i'8 onlY"'approximate: IIraak (1931). "~pi dl36 only diBtinauiBh •• between North _ and ToDkin .•. ee.tral,,_. ami South_I.

138,j,

It;;~ ~4ibid., p. 321.

10'.,:''-" Ibid., pp 321-322 tor dhtrict. trequently aftected by tlood-illl, Ad T.~l.~ex N. 4 tor 1929 population estimates. .

i~. '

U::;:,Por ~Boa.1 e",H.,..t~d

sults ot. the 1960 census .ee Appendix tour. Betw •• n 1929 Uld 1960 population nearly doubled. In the 1.lt decade ~.t. ,.opu1atiOIll 1,

bave increased 'by 80me 30 per cent (.ee tootnote 2).

1~.y Robe on (1929), p. 321. }ji:'~:,., " "

q •. ' Th~ .... ' our 0"" estimate. Shaaf and Pifie1d (196)), p. 7' ,i,.. t .... __ ~e~ req~,ement ot paddy al 1 oubio toot/.econd per 70 acre.. fbi •• e&D. th.t .~.thiDl·,.J,l;lke 910 million cubic met.r. are needed to· irripte 70,000 hec~ ••

'du)!1.., a ti.-\ve month trowing lea.on, or eDOugh vater to oo"'er, 91,00I._ota ....

& .. 'ta O.he.rt.,. ot vater one meter thick.

ynu'ter (1970), p. 233 •

.. por ..... Lanca ..... Publiohi ... Bouoe (1968), p. 13; p. 20 •

• aV&1 . Div101on (1943). p. 273.

(1970). p. 230; p. 234 •

. Intolli"l1Oe Division (1943), p. 437.

uo,arou' (1936),p. 76 •. 1I0rmandin (1924). p. 207 I&)'O thot 700,000 .... tar •• be tlooded in the 'led Rift .. delta ev.ry ..... 1" it 'Ulere ve ... DO ,U •••

t~",ro 3 it 10 clear thot lublt&ntid _.1 ot. th. d.1ta (.lti_to4'." at·l ••• t '0,000 h.ctare.) vere not proteoted b.r dike. &Ad were al ••

r "00"e4 ev.~ year. if ._

. ". Gourou', (1936), p. 61.

2:~(: !!!!!. i p. 63.

23!.11 '; ill!-~' pp. 63-6'_

2~' . Tho ar ••• · of th. 1_ and 1I0rth Vi._ .. part. ot tho .... toroh.4 are 84~'00 Iquar. ki1_t.ro and '9,400 Iquare kil .... tor.. ro.pocU,..l,y (Ina (1""'. ,~/46). ,': 2~. a •• I*M" p. 47 and Vo (1967), p. 19 for .. timatod .... 1' .... ~ .u ....... oi! the Red "'1' .y.t ... (130 billi ... cubiq •• tors). Soo lIutt ....... (1963). p.,49 f~r. &V.r.,. ...... ual rainfall at ""i Cll&u (in drat ......... in· ot tho 111_ 1'1"'.', . BII; CU..... (in drai..... Mlin ot th. Clear abor), and Lao K&,y (in drai_ bui _

_ . <, • RedRivn proper). 'l'b •• ver .... ,yearl,y rainfall for th ... are". 1081 . '. (or.juot about 2 .. etoro). Thio fall. within th. roD" ,1V'" b,y Barthel_"

( '. ), plato 3 tor th •• ntir. lIorth Viet ....... porUon ott ... Red Riftr ... tor .... d. AII::~ tor .outhern YUD.DaD, lIO.t of it south of the Tropic ot C&DO.r "o.i ..... bt't1tll:.~ 1(.,,,- 2 ... tor. ot rain a ,year; . the Hgion ext.nat.., north to 1atitudo 26 4oero" ~;"v •• betwe.n 1.0 .... d 1.5 ... tero of rain 0; ,year (Ibid., plato 3).Th"" '~t· w; a.sume an annual ;rainfall of 2 meWr. over the enti .. e Rea atft .. vatel' .... a, ; ',..: wi,ll ar .. i.,e at a cODservative e.timate of the perc.D.t&p ,of wa~1' ,~~oh JIi. '" , .............. tt. ail1O. iilO iotal ar.a ot tho drai_,. Moin 11 "1>o,,t 140,000 .,q~ . ~t.ro ( ••• tootnoto 24). about 280 billion cubic •• tor'.lt _tor t;'l·l.~.n

:V 139 ,~\l!. 'it/" ,,1'<,.

I

every year, of which some 47 per cent or 130 billion cubic 'meters is carri~d otf by the Red Riv~r ffystem.

26. Gourou (1936), p. 74.

27. /Ib~d"t p. 76,_

28. Po,.yanne '(1931), p. 9.

29. Gourou (1936), p. 76.

30. Tran'(1964), p. 50.

31. Po,.yanne (1931), A~la., plate 11.

32. '1he R&d River crested at ~2.68 meters at Hanoi in A~gusi, 1945 (Tran (1964),,­p. 50). Ha (i970), p. 30 say. that th~ lied River v •• eve" higher i" 1969. jleSilva (1972), p. 1 quote. Premier Phan V.,. Do", ... s~yill' that til. lied River r08e to, "unpreoendented heights" in 1971. '

33. Peytavi" (1916), .eoo"d pull-out tablo tollovi", p. 366. ,

,34. Naval 1" .. 11i,""oe Divisio" (194), p. 435.' i

35. See Gourou (1936), p. 28 and hi" map Hi tor more details. See Central I

Census.Steering'Committe. (1960), p. 4 tor the 1960'averaa. population densities of the 'coastal and lowland regione.

36. Gourou (1936), p. 82.

37. Unfortunately figure 7' dates from the, 1930'" -au,d our 111,1'8 rece,nt intormatio~ i8 incomplete. See Appendix tour tor & partial Ih,t ot, ,1960 population denaiti ... by prov:lnc ••

38. ' Gourdu (1936), pp. 33 ... ~4. '\

39. Ibi~. , p. 33.

4Q. ~., p. 33.

41. .!2!!~ , p. 33 •

42~' n!!!. , p. ,4. \ '.

43. ,Ib:ta.,, p. 87, Por population figure. s.e _A.ppe~ix tour.,

44. 1b~4., p. 29.

45. Po'" tieure 9,Y8 ••• 'that most ot th.,JWl'~arv •• t-~niy _orop,laM,va. conc'll~ate4 i~ an are&, oOQlPr,taina .b~ut 2/) ot ,,&11, the, l~d, ,o~t~, of th., Red· River. Po,.yann. (l9~1), 'p. 79 gi"iestho to,t,.l area ot JUIUI-onlY,l&J>d a. ,.h9,OOO heoteres., <_The "June o~op o~ another 105,000 heotares treq1,l.ntiy, suft.red t,om' wat.rlogg~na~) ~Q. o~.r ,"~o arrive at all,,'e.til!ate ot the ~tua~r ot p.oph ~iving il) the tir.t of ': th ... ~.*io"" ". heve added JOllothor ,tho popul"thns of ~.n Tay, Ha I)."" aJ>d ,Ba N .... provine,'. (a •• App.nd~x·; tour). . r' ".' J

46~' P.~ elovaUo" •• ~e t.~"'.t.' j,. "~ont' (1965)', p. 30aylltb..t parte .t~.i ar.! only 4 ,~t.r ... tiO,.e .... ~.v.l. , Se. j,ppeDaix t"'~ 'tor pop1,l1ation ,tiF'.. '

140

47 •. Gouro\! (1936), p. 104.

48. This is our estimate. See tootnote 13 for explana.tion. \

49. Duffett (1970), p. 234 gives the ,'size ot the first dam. Foreign Languages Publishing Bouse (1968), p. 14 gives the size of both dams.

50. Ha·(1969), p.16.

51. Ha (1970), p,' 22.

52. This is our estimate. See footnote 13 for explanation.

53. Under the 'heading "Locks," a 1965 appr'aisal of operation "Rolling Thunder" .ays that II .... of 91 known locka and dams in NVN, only' 8 taraeted as significant to, inland waterways, tlood control, or irrigat.ion. Only 1 hit, _ heavi ly <l.amaged." (Gravel Edition ot the PentaloD Papers, Vol. 4, p. 56.) A 1967 Iisbopping list" of targets prepared by the Joint Chiefs of Staff requosts,permiaaion to attack 7 locks (Ibid., p. 145). Given the proximity of the major locks to dams, and the way dams-wer. listed under the headiua "Looka" in 1965, we, suspect that this was the ,"Joint Chief's" ooy way of asking permiaaion to destroy North I

Vietnam'. piggest irrigation ana 1190d oontrol dams. (Tbe largest of, the flood control dams is the 260 meter 10Dg moveable dam 'OD the River ~ just south ot

,/ the Red River. The dam 11 ,8vung into place during period. of high waUl'. By diverting water trom the Red RiTer away trom'the Day, the du make. it easier to drain off surface water in the Ha Dong and Ph\! Ly baains (Robequain (1944); p. 255).

54. Ua (1969), p. 17.

55. Dumont (1965), p. 3.

56. Ba (1969), 'p. 17.

57. Soe Lefebvre (1916), p'.1041 for 1913. Of this, about 3/4 of tho floodod areall vere replanted in ti.e to yield a (probably) int·erior November harvest. About 110,000 hectares remained under w&~er too long to allow a new November crop to be .tarted. Soo GourO\! (1936), pp. 97-88 for 1915 and 1926. In 1915 tho ~oat was completely loot on 221,000 he.tare. (Peytavin (1916), p. 364). Se. 'tran (1964), p. 68 tor 1945. The extent of last years floods 1s UDclear. The U. S. government recently olai.ed that 450,000 hectare. ~re flooded. aDd that "the entire crop in that area was destroyed" (U. S. Dept. ot State (1912), p. 2). But it also lIaid that "one quarter ot the 'country' 8 rioe aeerag." was seriously tlooded~ It the total area devoted to the Nove.ber crop was meant, then 350,000 h.ctar.s were tlooded.' To cap this contusioR, the AP reported last,.ar that the floods destroyed 10 per cent,ot North Vietaam'. rice orop (neSi1va (1972), p. 1). U.i .. 1962 as a typioal year (ae. N~n (1964), pp. 179-180) this implies either the flooding abouti140,OOO hectares (it by 10 per cent the AP meant 10 per o.nt of the Nov~.ber crop) or the flooding of about 240,000 hectares (it b,y 10 per ~ent theA!' ""ant 10 per cen~ot tho total amoWlt of rioe planted ill 1971).

58. GourO\! (1936), p. 87.

59. ·The.e figure. include the amount of water which flowed onto the plaiD atter the Bed River bad returned to~normal l.vels but betor. the main break. in ,the dikel-·vere, closed. Between ':Ule moment' ot rupture -'(July 11) and the mollent of olosure (Ocotber 31) about 14 billion oubie met.rs p,. ••• a through the breaohea,' at XU Thi (Peyvatin (1916), p. 322). At Lien Ma. the breaohes were not .u.o .... fully ololled unti}. November 5. By.th&t t1me.26 billion cubic:meters ot ..... t.r bcl·pa ••• d tllrough th.", (Ibid., p. 324)/.

141

60. l!!!!., p. 328 •.

61. I~iel. , p. 328.

62. !jtUZ'Ou, p. 87.

63. Gravel Eelition of the Pent!lon Pa2!ra, Vol 4, p. 146. , 64. 'the usual eonversion faotor tor ,olog trom paddy to milled rice is .65' (Gourou (19<40), p.241). Applyi.., this to the Pentagon uU"",t •• giv •• 340,000 .. trio ~D.. ot paddy a:a.d 1,400,000 .. tric ton. ot paddy, reapectively. During, the ,,"t n.ent perloel for which ... aoulel obtain iniormtion (1957-1962) the .. .,.11 .... yield per be'a:tar,_ tor rioe b&rV •• ted in the tall was about 2.15 metric, w.no (H~ .. (1964), p. 179).

Chapter Three

\ I < 1:',\1 . ~; '.

, ",'I, ,'" ,: ' ":,' '.,'), , ,,~ ( ~ ;--" 1. Doron.ila (1967.), p ~.' 11. , "the" storY"also,,'appeared' '(on,'d1fffr~llt, d_ate,s~ :,i,n: '. the midwestern an.d westerJ\'.dit:1.ons of the 'monitor., It _'nevet",.pp •• r.d',,~n t~, eastern: edition -- which iff g,eneral1y the ,one D).icrof11med 6n ~he," •• l!iIt, eq"i~' '~,~;J':

, I 2.Cab~nes (19!i}), p.,c,',

3. 's.l!:.~ury(l~(l7) ;p. 108.

4. Duff.~t (1970),pp. 229~230.

5. See Le ~iburiai R~ss.:lHi9~7j; pp. 2l2~213, f."'ih~ .ar~~.t:~"~"I~*.;r~~~, ij/ map. \ -.', " - ',", ' .. ' -;:" " '. ,'-" ." ":'-:';-" ':"(, ; ':--1/' ;' ':/':"; ,(,.". ,;,,-~. ';'"

6. liThe big d'ik~s, 'which also 'ser~e" ~s roads ~:;::!*~( b~hirt:4 '. w~~eh: J~h~::Yil:i~i.i.:,~>:; -:,,:'~ '. ,/ huddle, are an inseparable p'art of' the lands'cap~ 'Pif' the ~eltas, 'n,01;'th ·i)f - the' ,

,P9rt of, Artna,m (Robequain, '(1944).", :p. 22~; '''. ~ '-. a 'l,arge number"of North Viet-' namese dikes"serve a's' bases -for,roadwliYs. ; • (U. S. ,Dept of Sta~e (1912'),. p.2);" 11,. • " it 'is a 'siIil:p~e fact tliat ill the ,~':JFtens'1ve ,delta areas, of North V1etnam,~ ,where'rice ,is c\llt~vated, '\l:nder heavy ~rr1ga_tip~, thsl'~ I\r~. prac~ioally no ~.?a~s excepl; those Which go',aIons ,the 'tops 'of dik..,es,;, land\ .,al1iaOBt no pl.PEt t.Q, p'ut 'an

. antiair:craft ,batt,ery'need~d ,to_ defend" a vil1age'"from U.s. bombel'.~ e~c~pt' dn or near, a ,dike, (Lockwood, (1912)" p. '5).u See Gauthier" (1930)" for' some photographs of roads and footpaths run!ling' along the, tops 0'£ d,ikes.

',',> "

7 .. Sa1i~bury (1967)." pp. 109-,ll1, I ",' "

8" ,Gra~~l Ediiion"~f ,t;h,e :\?$'fitag6n· Papers, vol. 4, p. 137., " I

9. Ibid.ip. 160.

10. Natiorial Sec~rity StUf1Y~mo .• Hl(l?72). P.'I' 5022.

ll.Ib~d., p. E.5022.' , :',::,! :',' , ,\, ,",'; ,,>,' , ,: ',,_I

12." ~~cause the bombing t~ok place year rou.nq, w-e ,h~ve"uBed .. the average, Y;~~.ld all rice ,crop,s in 195.7"'1,96+,,(1.97 metrip t9nst:h.ea.~,a~e) ,.1'ns~ead 'of, t;he .~ve.raae ". , '" " " " ,

i I, ','",

\ ..

1,13

. {, .' yiei,d for the November harvest; over this six year p,eriod which was u!iled in footnote 64 of Chapter II (N$uyen (1964) p. 179). The, average yearly tonnage

. of._ all food crops when converted in paddy_ equivalent was 5.5 million metric tons in 1957-1962 ":(Ibid., p. 180). For more discussion, se'e footnote 64, chapter II.

'13. S~,e '~ootnote 64, chapter II for, exp1an,ationf

14. Gravel, Edition of the 'Pentagon Papers, vol. 4', p. 227.

Tw~ years J,ater the "Join~ Chiefs II seemed 'to back away from their earlier position:

There is not sUff;f.cient data availa,bde"at this time on either the cost of the effectiveness 'of an air campa1gn agQinst these land lines [of communi­cation] 'to, reach '1;1, firm conclusion aa to- the chances of isolating- NVN fro.m her ,neighbors;',' Past attempts to ettt rail,"road, and 'water networks 1n NVN have met 'with con~iderable difficulties. It ,has been estimated"that a minimufu of 6~000 ,attack sorties per month would be required' aga1rtst the two rail :lines

, from China.. Even at this level of' effort, the North Vietnamlase could continue to use the rail ,lines to. sauttl~,sup1ies if they were willing to devote

'sufficient manpower, to repair and t:ranss,hipment operations. Interdic'tion of the road',system would be still mqre difficult. Since the boIllbing halt north, o,f 19 [degrees 1 in April, j 1968, North Vietnam has repa,ited aU'major road .snd ranro,ad bridges, constrJ,lcted'addit1,onal' by passes' and alternative routes 'and exparitled ,the railtoad: capac.ity' by' 'converting; large s'egmen,ts' from mete.r to_ dual '. gauge truck:, ,These improvements .would make' even more ·d:l.f,£icult. p~olQng~d' ,inter'diction of the .over1ankl lines of communication; [Nati'onal' Seeuti.t"Y" St.udy Memo.#l (1972), pp. 5064-65· . ... . .

',Thus_" they a:re,no longer quite, 'so sure that it is impossible~ Mo,reovel', wh_lle' st,ill ,st'tmating North ."Vi~tnam I s daily import needs" aYabout·.· 79.°0.' :aho'rt, t01;1~

,per day," they", report· that' North' Vietnam' importea, an, ave,rage of ,13,.600. short' to.n~ per day'in 1968, nearly twice the amount' estimat~d to be pciss+ble' bi._th$ ~96]: .tully '-fQl1owing an all;"out effo'r-t to seal, he'r harbprs ,', (!but;', _ 'p,,_, E:5064). ".", ~ "

Since_ 1969, ,laser 'guided bO,mbs' 'have been ,in-tJ;oduc,ed Wh1,clI. make i~_ .1~oss'~bl~- to' ' kn;ock' ()ut, bridges whidh, eluded' destruction ,des.p1te ,repeated att.a_~~.a· d_~t;'in'g, th~' rohnson airwar, arid the number-, of B-52 bombe_rs has· ;been-' dramatically· :in:Oie.a,aed. ' It is possible that the, "consensus" of "informed judgement" hali Unally shtft~d to,' t'he -view- that a "successful" air and sea blockage of North 'Vietnam b: ri.o.~"" '.,:'. within','-the"bounds' of possibility? .. ,', ," ,', ;" \' ,

A 15~ h','is' not ~.bear ,what the wal', planne.rs ~h1nk about thts :P:Q,s~,:,tbiH.,try.,:_:lA~,'-F~bi~_~,Xy: ' of 196:f they see~e~ to ,r,uie it.-out, as the' ~ollowfng tabl',': taken." froDi:',' it p-ap'ei :'", '.: £o,tWa~ded, J:o: Urtder$~cre,tary, of Stl;l.ts' Katz'enback with:, the 'noiat1clri l1~he l?res,id,e.nt w~t'l.ti:V,,'th'~' ,pap,er for his night. 'readiPs tonight" ,s~ows. (Gravel-, Eclit;_lo11' of the \: P«ntagon '-1Pape:rs, vol. 4" pp. 14"5,-6.,) The:' table- was: p,repar,ed,'"Y', -t.he 'Jo~nt".chiefs,,! o~:'St-af;e'a$,part ,0.-£ a li~t of "6p'tions" ":",;., -i,.e." poss-:Lble esca.latipns -- which ~h.y 'Set out, ~n the paper. -'"

NORTH VIETNAM' SPOTENTIAL·POR OBTaINING IMPORTS . BEFORE aND 'A!TI!R U. S; ATTACK '

(to",. per day)

Potential Now 6,500\

Potential After Attack By sea, ,,_ ' ','" :',', Byjl.edlU"er frpm. China: :By ~o'ad from China ., B~,: raU: from China

.. / \

'.1'.

.~:~g~ 6,000

,65Q . 150

2,'400' 4,000

lfithOu,t-'ma'jQ~' ~ardsh1p~ ,-the. ,rie-ed for imports ,:l.s as follows (tons per allY) .. . .

Normal' impCit:t'e', ' 4,200 '" If imp(ir:te t',epla,ce d'e'st.royed 1~d:U8t;t:ial prod'ucttJ..o~ 1,400 .

,/[,~ impot;ts rC!:plac,e 'rice' ,des,troy_d': by "ievee b,reaka 60().L.Z .500'-', (\ ' 6,2'0'0'"18.,1'0'0

Tunling,now, to the, tab;Le,j) ... e_'have. used 19' tni11ion ,~o;r; ,Our 1968, 'popu,1ation ,es,t:f..1.!late, This i~ conse~vat1v'e\ lIn. :the''- most recent! pe:,xriQd for which we: h'ave' st,a.tistics (.1,955 ... .196'0) ,'·'worth V1:etn~m:'~ ,population g1:'ew 'at an 'annua,l: 'rate of 3;5 Pe:r ce~t,,' a year~ U,s'~t)g __ ',this, fig~.re ,to wo:rk baG}twards from' the-",'1970 estimate' ,of '21.2' million' giv.en' ,in ,~i;foott).ote 2 ~ 'chap,ter II 1 yields, '19 .,8 nd'll,:t.b" ~or '1968'. (Vo'So '(19'67),' p. -',,30,' for ,bil.'thrate, data.) The'r,e "a:re about 3600' calot'~es in, a','ki1o'gr:a~ ',of rice 'and·8 kil,ogram of whea,t. ~~'restdent: !,s ,Science' Ad:Visory iCOU~Ci1 (1,9,67), :vol. ',,2 t p. 328 gives,' tneir' exact" val-ues as 364'0 ca'lo)."ie's/\k't~ogJ;'ain' and , ,344'0' calor,ies/ldlogr.am. vt~1 have ~sed, s, value' of 3600 calories/kilogram for all our" c~lG~la.tions.) N~dl8;S$ to. say,- ~ll,e.stimates, ar~ tough- in the' ext~etne C!-nd~ a,r:e ,usefu1\ only: for "tl1'y1ng to, atJiive at '8 cll'uc;le, idea of" what such ;l,.ar-e;e- foo~ daf:tC:1ts, woi\ld,,,tllean', fOlJ, ,Nd't,~h Vhtnatn. ,('Ndce that to 'tqe ,extent tliat. the ;109S 9f a' s,easl;)U I S' ,tioe" crr;ot\l co~d not be e.-ven1y' spread- out over a year, our pr<$cedure tends ~o ,',llP,d~re\3ti1\l8.Q~ I,t\he f~l\l.: i~Jlac~':'"o£: i~h~, ~ll;~~~g jjp~~' ~ho,rtagrB.' on the",. ipopula:tion.) ... ' . ",' "" '''\, . :",,"",:"''- " 'I ," /,", " \' , ,I ': - ,', "

16. Caloric nee~_, is a funct,iori 'pf normd 'hody weight. See "President ~s' 'Science Ad~~sory e~uncl1," (1:'9:67)" 'Vol., 2'" Pi ,'4'0 fQr 4verag~'\ body wei'ghts 3f' adu~t-, men; and :wotllen ,in, i Xndi~1 'pre:-p~,;t'Uti<m P,sl(,1Sta,n, and Viettl:am. 'Be'cause ~he' avetagll ' weight:s' gi:ve~ for,: Pakistan ,an~( V1el;nam, are very"~ s,1in~lar, we have used PSAC I s, lowest ,e,sti­mate,o,f tntnimutn, Pal<i$±:ani dplor1,c' requirementS' (l.a-~6 ,calQ,ries/day') . "Ib':id,. " , 'pp. ""

",47-48. For the aseumptidns ,used',;in ,arri-Jing at such estilTlSctes, ,see, ,po 42, ,PP' 4_6:"", , 47., ,and -p.., 50. For a much high.er estimate ,of. ,win1ml,Im dai1)" requirements (2284-" calories'lciay), _'see 'po 47 ' __ , It sn_(j)1jld .'be 'Q9rne' in .-mirld tha,t, because" of, the, ,eno'rnJus number \)~, V'arb.b~es: ,i~~~~~e:d in Cl\1~111ati~~ _ c,,16~ic '~-q~ire)il,ent$"~'" th~$e",e~,ti~~es" of, mini-mont daily' need ~r,e,,.',at:,bestt, very ctud,. ,Not~'t' ,~oo".', th.at w~ make/no .t,en~ion of vitamin, ,~n.d', p.r6te:~n 'defid:encies ,here. Fot;' extensive discussions see Ibid.', pp.; 1~136,pp·.,29.s-:i71.· . . ..,....... . .•

'n. ~Y. 'at s1. (1950l "ipi'.' 12~~~2,9.' T~. t~~l.~. MU,d ti~on'dat~ ob~fined dUring" the world war" II, ,MilJ1nesota ,s-c,udy ~n ehe: effects of qnalnutr'i,ti0'n. The' authors,

, stress 'that the t-a1;)18 'sli-ould 'o~ly 'be ta:l<en':as -8, crtide: Urst""apprQximat1'on:,. ,,: ,"; "" ': ~' --i' ", I, .' "."" <,' _. ""':'" "f" • --, ,''',- ,,' ,".'" ,: " ,

18., Th~: caloric inta~e at" Am$r1_~ap.s ,interned ,l:n' ~onie' Fhil-lipitte 'pr:t,son cSJllps' w~~ 'a,pp'$r~ntly--adequate' ,1,~,,194'2:":1943. !,-t ,tha:t ,t:l.me, np morii!:' ,than 1'0 ,p,er cent; : , >

of- ;,t~e ,'intei;-nees '.-a't, -~OB .,,8~llos an4' ,Santo', Tpm~s ':,8uff~red, from, "s,eri<ilu~ '"ma).nut'ri t10p,,~ ,~d':not __ :~Ol' !l;ack of, Sl,lffie1.ent.:,'fo'bd, but"be¢:atlse. ,II •• ,'j ·~h.y; fai1$d 'to adjll$t; ,''' e~t':(0l1:,~llY' to:",~l;1e ,avai~able ,foQd~-'.'., " qr :~eij' unilble' ,to' di,gest'., ",' the ~9.0d,"" b ••.• u •• o(·~11ne8.(Ibtd •• p. 96)." At·th .• b~81nning of 1,944 tho Il\ •• n ~oight los,S 1,'£'0;',-.:- ,ntf*:, a:t ,tn~~e_' two i campa: averaged, about 1:2 • .5 per', cent _ ~a'ss'!Jming, }~n average' P1i,e:-1.~t:~rnl'nent' :we~a:ht;:" o:f ,abou~,'~65 lCl1ogra;ms ,(apout" ,14'0 pounds). C,ondit1on~ c;lra..,

,:ma-t,icall'y w(j,reeri-ed' duritig --1944. BY' th.e:end'"of' .-the year ,the averagE! .,weight l'o.s , :for:, men, "was s,ollletbinlg

J l:L'!,te" 38?p '(again' assuln:tp.,~, all aver,age pre-d,n:te-rnment we:Lght

of65 kuoaram.)..' .. . ... . ", 1\~,:Ch'arl$1. pr~f:Jotier, of o/a,r ~am~, the avera~~" 'da:Lly 1n,ta'ke', fIJr . ..7 m?ritl,~s '~fi ],942, .

was '2,276' ,c.-al.ories, (b'ut' the ,men 'here ~,clid fo,~c,ed' labor).." 'Fot, Canad,;i:iltt,' prfsoners '.of :.l'~r.intli. \Ionk. [(Pn~ !ft.aie ~~ •. 2305 't.~~r1 •• dU~1n&. t,heperiod J;9W'1945 (tlo . a~lowanc', ,'made fa',r ,::p~~t>atft~:L:b:n'~ :,' ~,Qok1n$,'\ '-6r;"~,.b-;te;:',,:1.o~se.:.)-', ~:t>,_i'Fh:e, P~~'t~,g; camL?' " I ~ i " ' ''' ' "" ':( " ,,' , ,,' i

; " -.. 'I '<'-"i': :<::':",:. ' '" ,r:1I: ;,:\: """ ",' \ ' I.

";", .', '.:.::.,' ~ "'~:'. -_",' ;',(,: jl\1l$,-:' ~\':' 'rr'-:::' ",'.,-, \ '.

, ,,',I'

for' ctvil1an internee~ outside Shanghai the average ration was 2055 'calories during 1943-1945 (Ibid., pp. 1243-1245). Myrdal (1968), p. 545 give. the requirement ,for Europeans (who are much heavier than Asians) as 2600 ,to ~alorie8 a day. The average intake at these three prison camps was 2222 calol'~. a day, or from 79 per cent to 86 per cent of t~e figures cited by Myrda1.

19. Ibid., p. 797.

20. President's Science Advisory Council (1967), -pp.' 12,:,14. \

21. Ibid., p. 311.

22, I~~~. ,p. 4~:, '

23. Key. 'at 81 (1950), 106. .

·:~':t' 25. Ibid., p. 74. The Minnesota volunteers lived for 6 months on ,an average d~~~Y intake of 1510 c8.lories (Ibid., p. 74). Their average boody weights w,ere slight¥t,' more than 6S kilograms (about 140 pounds). (Ibid., p. ,126). This compares to ail average bOf!lY weighf for adult males in 'Vietnam of 49 kilograms (or about 108 ' pounds) (President's Science Advisory Council (1967). vol 2, p. 40.) k);', 26. Ibid.,', p. 92 for the famine of 1918-1922, and pp. 91-92 for the 1941-42 ,:(~;!: seize of 'Leningrad. ",t' ),:

27. Ibid., p. 193.

28. Ibid., PP, 790-792. ,/ '~ " .'

29.0."t.,&lC.""ua St •• ring Comitt •• (1960), p. 2 .&;yo two m~~~:~;!L!:::!:~~ p~ "61 • .,.. "0108. to"'OIle ,million," Porter (1912), p. 19 says two (M;I.1.,Pr •• ~, fortbooming)8&yI two million. For the amount of rioe li,y'tho , ... aoh 'lieteto the Japanes. installed & Vi.t ......... pnpp.t regime in

"194'_, ',\ ••• J. Deooux:; 'il. la' Barre 'de Ltlndochine (1949), p. '449 -(op •. 'ci1i. in .ft'}-.; ":)>>*o_oUx wu Preneh GOvernor General of IDdoohin& ,tor the Viohy regi_.

30,"' Qutad in N.o(M.I;T. Pre •• , forthcoming). ':'

"-,,,\ \.

'j",

,

" .. '.""' ..

' ,;"',

, . " ,f

Ch8.p~er Four

1: Gravel Edition of the Pentagon Papers, vol. 4, p. 43.

2;, Weating an.d Pfeiffer (1972)" p. 24.

3'._'T.hee~\ are' extrapola~1ons 'us~g met~d ,described by Lapedes ,(1971) ~ vol.. " p;t." 159, This ,1s e~l~i'P,.ed llllter <;In in. th!: discus.ion of laser guided hombs •.

'Fo.l' more on the ,lId,ai,sy cu,tter" see ,J,auber.t;. (19.72), ,.p.,.685 and, LitJ;.~uer and! ,-". UP~Off (1972), p, 223.'

ti.C:authier (1930), p. 68A.

',5.;',S-ee discuss'lo'n in chapteF II and figure 5.

fig~res .~re all ~aaed 'upori t!;le )~;J.m~'n.ions given in _f:igu'r,~_ ?~ .. Acco,t'4~~8 (1930) ,alltre dikes inttie,delta "ere being brought: up to thi."

• ~obe9"eil\(1,9M"p.224,cldms"that ,th~, progr.mh.d 9,4'01' ,t.~r:l;~""o,ut ,': " ~_in,~e tJ:,.en ,:th~: ~e,d R;f..;ver:i_4iL1.tes· haye .. peen strenthened:, l,lild,:r~i."d aQ, t;h:.~-,;_

h.Q~d,-pa,c;k_ ,the, wate~,s i.wn,en ",th,e ,.Re,~ Riv~x:" is' 13','00 ~~~etl8:,>~t H.anoi:',:(~~, .,f! J . }2.)., .. :I~ .M~t1o!l l:Jl~,J.~p~~h',p~. eM dt~.,.y~tem.,I"i.b,~.n,gr.«t~~. ,J: ,

. In ',~he ~~r~'Y",1~3p:t'~)there', wete ab\?u,t,':17.00,. kiloDie,t~,t:"'-""o,f.. ri,ver,' 4ike;$:\<- ; (oJlr, •• t~",.t~ b.~~4, o!i.Al.uth~~r, '~1930.) ,p., 92A".@nd. Pouyatlt) •. (1931)" p,,' lUo"d",,,,. p.;,~;l.1:3). - Th.er¢ ;,:~e,\ n·i:l.\·V~~out 2800.. k,Uometers, r;>f rivet dike,S (Nhst?- ,Dan~ August 28; 1971, p. 10). ·~e"t>t •• n ~9M.~d, 1963.bput •.• .'much earth "as, ""'v~ .s"etwiO,eJl·: "". ,18~6: and 1945. (b~. rl\~ch,9~;}thf. " .• ~ .for repairing dam.ge c.used by the firsf Indochina War).' S •• ', Tn~, ),G.l~61+ 1"" .p,. 73. . ' 7. Gourou (1936); p .• 80,... .., 8. 'R(>bequdn, (i929) , VOl. 2, p. ::)30.

9. ~.uth1et (19~O>, pp.49A-,OA • . " , . 10; GourQu (1936), p. 88.

ll.,..,1?eyt.1iin (1%.6, p •. '323 .•

l?,Ibid., p. 323.

13; Gourou '(1940),,; p.22i1 .• . ~. ,'. "",: ' ' '.' ':''', ,", :

1,4< NIlan Dan, Uugu8t.'~8,'; M)71) _' ',pi 12. 'G,?mpare,:t~is:' and thfi pt'~ceeding q,1;iot.e ,to' ~, ,(

the State ,Department's re~ent contentions about earthenwerk dikes: ;.\

Dikes are particularly resistant to bomb damage. Those in the primary system' could be breached only by a series of overlapping craters across the ent'ire top o,f a dike, and the lips of the craters would have to be Bufficient,ly lower than the river surface to initiate ~he flow an~ subsequent scouring action of w~ter rushing through the breach.. •• (U.S. Dept of State (1972); p. 2).

15. Normandin (!914), pp.24-25.

16. Ibid.,. p. 20, for height at Hanoi if the dikes had held, graph two following' p. 20 for estimated discharge when water is 12.30 mete~s at Hanoi, p. 26 for estimated discharge of' water through majo,r breeches.

17. Peytavin (1916), p. 364.

,18. Gourou (1936), p. :37. Compare this to the way the government tries to 8ugg~st that 'it would be quite difficuit to cause wid~spread flooding:

" North Vietnam's water contt-ol system, includes a large number of widely di'spersed individual components which c,6uld ,be substantially affected only by a'larg'e-scale, coordinated. air offensive l• S;uch attacks would be necessary against specific locks, dams, and dike areas, and bombing would haye effect only during the relatively ,short ~eriods of high water. ,(U.S. Dept ,of State (1972), p.2).

True, the 'only way to ,"substantially af~ect" a "large numcer of widely dispersed individual' components II is to hit 'a lot 0.£ thEnn.,'But,; as we have s~en, one 'could cause quite "8 bit,. of, flooding by hitting just 'a few' key areas. Less direct'ways of povok1ng 'serious floodirig are also poss1bl,e:, cf:.,' infra. "Much mo-re' extensive bomb_ing ',would' ,be necessary- _to' cause ser'ious fIoQ,diii.g during :periods o,f 'low water ot during the' autUmn. ,(See- chapter Six fo:t·s brie,f' discussion, of the possibility of destroy'ihgi'most of the' November, rice h'arvest. af,t'e.r'the November 7 elec,'e:ion.) ., ",." "-,;

19. ~ey'ta;'!n (1~16)" p.,315.

20. Lacoste (1~72), p", 3,.

21. Weatins and pfeHfer (1972), p., ,28. Also see Littauer .,,\a ,Upnoff(1972) ,p. 25.

22. AS8um:tng t~a~ each 50P potind bomb' produces 8. crater ,about -:10 '1ri$teis'w1de and 5 meters deep (see footno,te' 2, this chapter) an4 th~t ther~ i~ ,no '()verlap

'of ,craters.

23. Lapeaea (l971), vol 5, p. 159 •.

24. Bark.an (1972), -p .• ,.84 g±ves the figu,re a,S 12 'feet. Also see, tittauer and Uphoff (1972), pp. 154-156.

~5 •. 'fhis is a conservative, estimate, Under, ideal ccind1t10ns half the bombs dropped, £all witl)in 100 'ie:et of the target,. In' combat "1;\ figure of 250 feet is quoted as typ~caL In military jatg~n t'be" t;EP [cird~ar erro:r probable] is more .likely to" be' 250 f,"etthan IPO f~et. n (Littauer' and Uphoff (19n), p. 24.)

26. Westing and rfeiU •• (1972)" p. 21.

1AS

Chapter Five",

1. Wab,~,~, t1968), Meiburg (1970), and .especi~lly 'Kuhn.f (1970)- previde ,useful v_ere-, ':pectivee cn the w_eather medificaticn lit¢rat,ure.

-:, ' , I

2. See ,th~: artj.cles en compute1;'s in, warfare, ,Undersea ,warfare, ChE!1ni:cal" Weapl;lnS, - mic:qbiolo'gical Yleapons, arid gecphysical ,warfar~ in Ca14er (19·68)" the ,'article on

gecpnysical warfare is st;Lll the best ';r'ev:J.ew ,0f the pcssi'b;Le military applic:aticns of weather ,riiodif,ications.' .

~., S,_ee ti~s~ Dept. 6£ Agric,ult'utle (1965), -po 17' The u'.S.n, .. A.,tabl~ ~o,es"rict'". /dts,tinguish between land ,flco'de,d because ef breaches in the dikes ;;tfid land £lpcded beca'use ,of heavy rains, and pcor drainage. ,'Ncnethel~ss, we.believe -that: it refers cnly to. land, 8uJt'erfng f,:cm wat'erlog,ging, be,ca~e Tr,?n' (1964), lIa (1969) add lis (1970) 'make no. men'tt,on Q:I; any. fleods ef: conaequence_ ~n :1955 ... 1963:; ;10 con- : t!,~st.; Tran (1964) t ',~_.:, 51 'says' ,that 257 ,0.pO "he'ctares -su££er~d from w~terlogging in 1963" tb.'Ol1)e fi~"r. given'in the U.S .. D.".,ta.1.for·~96·3.(Th.U.S.D;A •. 'table, a.lsc~' gives th~' area .of· land devoted t'o -the June and November ,harvest~ which ,suffered ,from' drought du~ing the Bame-' p'eriQ'd,.) . , , .' " ' \. , " '\"" ,,:,,--,' 4~ See the ag'ricul.tural_, calendar in', appen.d:l.,x, 4'f,"

5 •. ,tr~bl.ts (1970), p. 2(Hk,Trib'us. ~rovides a g()~"d revi'ewh,-of' the, state 'o-f-'weath~r' 'niodi'ficiai:ion experiments: ,up to. 1970. itammon'd,.:(~97.1r\:Pt~5u;mes· ~ shorte_r -~n,~. <I?dr' mere deta~-led""~~,s,~ript.ions of ,dynaqi.'lc ,seEid:Ll1;g'" 9£ ~selat\$d'i c\1mu11 :s,e~,,8iJhps~h,\-~""d ~ , Weodley (1971) ;", pp. :b17",P2-," 'A' s~'1l1 ,mo~e de't._alle.4' d,iscue.$,ion appears :(.n Simp,sQU"", and'Dj!nniS (197-2') 'j, pp; '71-101,. Increases, en days'defined as IIfair" (leS$ ,~llan 12.7

i perf',pent of, the taxget area, ceve'r~d by p'er,cip1tad.ng ',clou4e) were- on the:' order of 4PO per cent. Seede,d 'c1duds pro-duced:,'sl1.ghtly .less rainfall than"",,¢&ntt'ols em:, -:,

"lI,ra~l1Y days," but tlie di.fference ,was_ net',significant; Dennis and 'KoS,ci~lski" (1969) also ':£ound_ a .s,imilar _defferen'ce betwel$n !'the, ef,fec_tiveness :ef ~n'8trl,ic', en: d'ay-s'; with- ' 'heayy ra~-il:,and days ~ith_light ra1n~ Jus~"why 'th1s sheuld ,be',,·,irt -the: cas,e is .-obscure i: se. 'Siinps;'n 'and D'ennis'(19 12,,;.'ZP' '36 alta p\' .. 94"95;, ; . .. . '., ' ;,

, ': C,' , ",', " ,', '. _, , ,',;, : ,1,.- '" ',"" "," 6. S1nlpson ~nd,.p.nhis (1912t, P:,108. :rhU .• nd .oth ..... ra.r.~9·.~1)11OlIt.,a~o·· d1.c~ •.•• ,d~n 'pp, .101-110 •. A18~ •• '. S1inp.~~ .. alld.Woodloy (1970),.pp: .. 122*126,tlt'· contrllt to. othu Ira.I'Ot' I den •• Whl .. the "dtadon .for .:t':t:l..tt •• lli.n:l.f:l.li.nc~

i 1aulual1Y •• t.at 1!ha .• 051a1(ll1 (on. chane'iOut of twenty) •. a~roti'~!.l:1.tyof.l0 . ,il . beil±nn1nstob.o 'a •• opted .s sig~i.U.a:n~ .• t.t1s~i •• UY~n' ,.elie we.tho. I'1<1ditt¢aHo'n .lit.utar •.. ,. Ss. Ney ... nand· ~ott(1967.) for ·.·j""tifiC8t1on. '. .

• ' 'I "" , <, '\ ' " "I , ';'J'

, . 7., ,c'cmpare, "th~S:~' ,J:.'e~ul,ts, :u.o I wha~' tQe Defan'Ei(.D,QP~rttnent tba~'~ ~~n~'tct:: Cia)tb(/#i-, I ;'., , I

Pe1.J.. in replY,to.h1. lett ... , .. s)dng .b.~t !'I1Jitan' Us •• of ,weant .• r .1""d1~i."Uon (emphas.:i;.'.addedc),' .... . . . ....... , .. ' .... ,.,. . .'. ··'V.",',; "

_ "/," -,/"

., 1!11(

I I' :

When ·tJte proPElt met'aologlcal 'conditions prevail (that is, whet;l. clouds :', 'capab~e of- ptbdiJcing ,natural ra:i;'tl exist")', 'it', is ',S: .'re1's'tive1y simple matter

tc(:increasE( ',the :"amotint 0'£ 'rain ,wwhich' 'wil1-£aIl. The amount ,of increase 'Is .frequentty 'of " the order, d£ 30' to 50 per Cent. This,'sugmentation is '!!!twithin ~ limi,ts of 'rainfall !£! reston! ~ '!!!!£h.,eXperiments hav~ ,been conducted. Massive downpours, ~ in excess of natural oc­curel'lcea' have !!.2!. been produced, !m!. ,theoretical knowledge at' hand i!!,­dicates that 'thiS, !.til always be £h!.~. Johnson (1972), p. S508.

I Helpful, aren't they.

8. 'See'l(;ourdu (1936), p.1 6'3 'tor ~a very,brief ,'.Ides~riPtion. Sch~~Z (1961) provides the most detailed discussion. Prepared for' the ,U.S. Air- Force Project'Rand,: his study' provides a wealth of 'information' about Indochina. S-ee pp. 17-24, for the' Southwe-st mbnsoon (SullUl'ler' rainy,: season); pp'. 25-31 f<>r, the Northeast monsoon (wirttet a'ry"seilson~; pp. 43-46 for the,>spr1:ng and fa1('-transitioos. From Schutz. it is ~lear "th$t most of the rainfal;!.. ,tn tne spring ... ; s,u1tllller sJ1:d £'all comes from thurtd~rstqrtl\ 'activity" ' '

9. W •• 41eY"t &1 (1971). ' p. 9. Shapley, (1972). p. 1218. , ' , ' ",1" , , '

10. Si ... Atnand: et 'a1'- (1971a), p', 111 A~ for seeding_ tech~,1q~es, t~ey 11 .,' r~pre8ent a cOD!-b1tuition -of th,~ ,best features of' seading, methods developed by mre (Naval Weapons:€enter)"and by opmmet!eia;J.' cloud !ileeder~ .• ' • ,Seedi.ng 8u;ccesa \is bas$d on visual' observation of ,the clouds t' interpretation of, the airflow' in and, airflow in and 4rUUt'l:d~ elauds, and-- placement' of' t~e, seeding charges so that the proc;.esses I

caus1n'$ cloud ~8'towth ',are, augmented. (Ib,id." 'po 11,-" p., 13}.:" , t' '<", _ ", , •

11. s'e.~-,S_:i.mp~dn· and ,Denn1s,:(19.72) 'j pp. 71 ... 92, Much brh1fer des,cript10ns sre" given 'by'T~ibus' (1970), Woodley, (1970) ,and Simpson and Wood1~Y·(1971).

~ , '

12.' 'See' Simi)son 'and: 'Dennis (,1972)" 'p. 104~, This i'e not one :of the me'rge~s' included in the, merger studies referred' to, above~ Only ',one, cloud ,(liN') was seeded, and the resultit\S -inerger-'w-as apparently. unplanned. For, photographs showing the progress .... of thi.'mergerilee above pp, '102-103, and Simpson and Woodley (1971)ppi 122-123.

13.Tran (1964),p., 51.-' .'

14.', Nhan :pan (Augus~ '30, ,'1971),

1'5~' The n.-eli h'igh yield 'r.1ee:' strains are I\spe:~:tally vulnerable' to water damage., , .

, E'lCPe±1:~nC~'-duritl.g the 'eatly 'teil,th~nth :dce season of the last several years w1!th the' short- p'ea'rl,' rice strains and',1 new lOw~plant, 'rice strains hay~, pt:o'ven,,.'t,ha~,,;L,h' r,e;ars" of .h,e~:vr rains an(\ ~y,~hoons~, the rice 'crop ,uljI\1:a;lly ,s~f~ers, heavy l?sses tprou$h insect d~mage. W\1en,;t;y~oon8 occ'ur during the last p.arF' of :t:he- sleaS!on., i,the, recov,e'lj" s,treng,th o~ the' r!.l.ce pLant is, low" and ,insect problema' are even more liable, to develope. (Dinh ; (1910), p'. 40). .

..:' As fo,~ repian~ing, after a flood, "the, la~e'S't dates 'on, which' ~'can"put' Se'~41.1~aS

in the ',~ar~~ ,~~_,,s-ept_;inber,',J, l~Hlt! Apd' tl;1~L;f1t,~S1: ;day £.e,r" ~~,anspla-.rt~ng~ is ,:Sep~embe:t' 25, lt9,~~:,'(H"no+' 'HOi, ,197,l",p.:. 2~O'.,", R:l,ce ',tJ8n:sl?lante4: ~hi!i, lat,e;' rfillquires elC.tFlL~ "

, o~d,1tiarY':" att,ent~(m. ,Ev~p. u94er Jde,a1, ~p~d_iti,~,~~ C?~ -,~xperill\e'n~ai :'fa.rms, witl\ - frequently and '~aref:Ull,.y ti:m"d 'fertlliz.tion yields of- plan tel, transplanted in ,l,at,e September i,robare1Y more thanh$iiE th4n ",rmal (Truong (1971) , p .. 45): ' " , '

\

In c1t:cumtancea wh1ch are 8'1m11ar fesard.;lng material-technical base and re8ard~ng climate and soil quality, many places have.trans­planted late and atill harveited. On the contrary, some fields ,and some places have had hanests scarcely worth mentioning. The p1;lnci.pal re48?n 1s ~he difference in applying care techniques, (Ibid •• pp. "4.5-46)

Also see the excerpts from North Vietnameee pubt'1cationa 11.\ Chapt~r Six. , , 16. See Simpson an~ Dennis (1972). pp. 110-114. and p. 137.

17. ,See Simpson and Dennis (1972)', p. 109 for w.ater produced by Jrte~gers. Simpson and Woodley (1971), p. 124. gives 'data,for four seeded cases and two controls. Se~ footnote 25, Chapter 2 for hasis of"esdliat~ng 50X run-off over Red, River , bssin-,., See Peytavin (1916), pull-out 12; following p. 266 for daily water levels 'at Hanoi during 'the floods of 1913 and, 1915 •. Peyvatin also g1v.& daily estimates of ,what the Hanoi water levele would have been had the dikes held., We have used these latter estimate in const~ucting table ,9. For water levels of 11.40 mete~s and lower, we have used figure 6 (from Gauthier (1930) to find'the corresponding

\ (estimated) discharge at Vi'et Tr1 (where the Red River enters the delta) ~ For ~igher water levels we ,have used the extrapolations given by Normandin (1914). in his graph. These extrapolations must be considered only crude approximations of the re-al stete of affairs. See Gourou (936);. p. 75 (oq,r figure 5) fot: a .graph of the w{lter level of the Red ,River at Hanoi during the flood of 1926. ,Lacking anything better; we have used this grap~ to .stimate the number of ,days during which the Red River was between 9-10, 10-11-, and ,11-12 meters at, Ha~oi. Then, using figure 6 ,we have found ,the estimated discharges at Viet Tri whe.n the J;'iver is 915, 10.5, and, 11.5 meters at Hanoi. Since the dikes ruptur,ed -1n ,numberous places during, this period (and 1"45,000 hectares was flooded) t this procedure Wlderestimates total flow of the Red\,R1ver. Fin.a11y, eee Pouyanna (1931) Atlas plate 13, for avel'age: monthly water levels at Hanoi. We h~ve used tnese figure, to form a crude estimate 'of the average a~unt'of water per day carried :by the Red River during the days in which flooding o,ccured in 1913, 1915, an<i 1926.

18. See footnote, 17 for re~erences, In 1913 the highest disch,arge occured when the Red River stood at 11.05 meters at; Hanoi. In 1915 it oc~ured when the Red River was at 10.83 meters at Hanoi. When ,looking at the averag~ height of the Red RiVer during,the three floods" bear in mind that water levels fluctuate greatly, during the rainy season (see £igure 5). For a graph of, the 1913 flood 8e~ .Lefebvre . (1913) • plate 2.

'19. While we cannot say. how ,frequent tne~ger sit~'atlon. are, during: th •. rall'!-Y season and the prlng and £all transition. there ~" a 'good dear of_ evidence .to ... uggest that seeding .. techniques 'which work in F1orida",o'r ,the Ph1l11p1nes- woul4 ' stand a good chance of wotking itl North Vietnam. end Lads.:

~ The mountalno~ regio~8 of North Vietnam' 'and Laos are roughly comparable to thps~ in ,the Phil~lpine:S (Bartholomew .<~g~.>, vol. I" plate. 18 and 2,4). Also' see figure 4 for a ro~gtt idea of, Na:rth' Vietn:amt 8" re~ief:) .

@Northern 'North Vietnam, northe~ L'ao~,,"and the Phil,,1p$.nes race1ve~ influxes . of tropical maritime ~lr during the rainy'.ea80n. (Shute (1967)., p. 22; BilrtholoDlew (1958); vol. I •. plate 3); ,. ... .. .

@ In, North Vletna:m,' ~er:i..od' o~ -heavY: tains cJ;~rln8, the 8llD1lber are aq~~~{ated . w:l,th wea~ cold fronts moving south from C)lina .. (Go.urou (1936), })~ 63.) ,In South Florida, cumuli associated with sU,ch fr,;mta :have -been found to' be, highly' eeedab1e (Simpson and Dennis (1972). p. ll~)

'161

'\'@~ There, b plen'ty-·of '~isture 'in' ,the 'a'ir masses' flowing "1nt~ "North Vietnal!1 and northern Lao~ 4uring the rainY s,eason: '

>Th,e" expianation for thi~ p~ec1pitation and cloud .inc·rease '[as one" \ go,SS:' north 1n Laos and north of the Re4 River delta] lies partly in:' the

SJi.F4amline' patterl1 .• '. The old'inE- [equatorial maritime]. air which was .. 1ia~tJ.y 'dli'y when leav~ng the coast ,of aouthe;rn North Viet~am:,t'epleni'shes its ~i$ture \ov~t' the warm waters· of the Gulf' of Tonkin'. It, 1$ also' joined by 'fr~~h mT [tropical 1.llar1n~] ,from the south. Then, both air mas'ses are drawn . i~to t,he relatively deep thermal. low" of southeastern'-China. Some of this. revitalized and:,.'ag~,in mo:L8t~, unstable air mass turns inland, recrossing the c0aSt, bp.~theIReli River from the southeast and •• ", does .not los'e it~ moist'ure

, ,\ '. u~tll r~,aching ,northwestern NOrth Vie,tnam ,,and Northern Laos [ •• \.]. ,1

.,. , As elsewhere in Indo'china" int_ervals' bf weather' without precipitation ~d witl{ saatte~ed 'clouds, occaaional~y_ occur in northerQ. Laos and ~orthern ' : North ,Vietnam, but completely clear of" c;.10ud1ess daya 'are unsusua1,. a.nd successive days without precipitation'in any' given locale aTe quite rare' (Shutz" 'pp., 2~-3).'

/ ' ' I' ,

@ Mos't ,~a1nfa11 during the"~p,rifig and "faiL transition~ ,in la6a 'aQ.,d Mor.th, V1etnam ,/ }':'" comes ft;'o~, th~ndersto,rma (Schutz, (19~7), pp. ,,44 ... 45). Most of thiLwe,ather during" the fall, trans.it~on has, Il c,old fron'tal, charac',lIeriatics~' (Ibid.-, p~ 145). '

, ' ," '.

, , ,"" ,,' , - I , ~'He,~sh (1972), writes that the high- r.isins cumulus ,c~o\!-ds spawned by the, sou,th,-west monso,on (and' alao' commOn 'during, the spring and fa+1 "tranSition) are considered most susceptible ,no s,e~d~ng. (Se~ ,~o9tnote 24" infra). '

\ ....... .. .. . .. .. ..... .. . ~20. ,S1mps.on, and _,Detmis (1972), PP: 10~,-l09. 'One p~ane w~ used in ,19tO,. two' w'ere : ' -if,.

, occasiolla:lly' ,Ulihid ,+n 197.l. pur,~ng"the, 1968j, and :1970 exper1menu ,:wi"th' single clo,~d;s'. . ,.52 suitable c;louds, ',were .found 0,1\ ,19 exper:tlll~ntal d~ys. ,(~b1d .• :; .. p. 9Z)" p..,r:1.n~,' ftl).,:

:1971 ,drought alleviat;t.on pro,Bram' 'in. Florida, J~1mpe,ol'\- found' that 21,' out of the, 61 days"fduring;, the, ~est, perioQ. contained seedable clou'd$ ~S:1mpB9'n and Denni,s (l9~,2)~, p. US). this prQj,cti~ bri"tly .descUb,d bythem·,pp •.. 1l4.116. .S., W06d~ey et ·.011. ,().:971) r fot:' a de·ta:flled description'. , The' :target area wa~, 3Z ,0.00 s<l~are ki1omet~rs, Olt s11ghtly.,~,r,e,':than h~1-f 6£ the a;-ea:of'the Nprth. -Vi'etnamesa part of

l the'Red,-,'

Ri\V4j!r :wate'rshed;' The to,tal,.'increase 1.n "rain, durin~' ,the' test perioH Wse ',~strima.te,d' at b~tW'een -5' and' 10, per cellt: (vf6od1ey ,at a1, (1971), ri. 1'33)-,

, ' 'I ' ,-.' \ .

: ,21.:' See foot~ote, 19., Seeding'di,Iring Gromet_ II ,was' done, d\,lrin$ a period ~arl:ted' by 's .gradual, tra~siHon to the ,southwest monsoon (St-Aniand -et al ,(1971a).,', 1':.;', 10).. '. ' ,(Ar'akawa, (1969)-, pp. 164-165 says ~ha:t the :southwe'st :mons,Qon '}lsua1.1Y appe,an', oyer tl1e Ph11H.pine.s i~. early May a-pd s,ometimes appears ,as ,ea~ly alit April'.) (', ,A;n" ,ave,rfl.~a of nix: t81:gets p.ex ,~ay durin~ ~hei eee'd-il\$:' period W.es .;fo·und" CSt~A;m~d:.':e,t'"a1 Q'97.,la', I,

~ pp" 8l-~P). ~ut .this 'con8iget,~bly und~rs-~a't!!s, the' ,a,j,er.!i.ge-, humber, o~, s,8'e,(1a,b:le "clouds, I: beca~se ."tndiviau~l targets may be a '8ingl,~ p:J,~ud, ,'a, .~lb\ld c9mp:leilC,.",'Q~;,:.eV:lh;al· such occu~riit~'}n 'the semel general 'are'a ~nd r~apOhd~ng 8,imlla;rly' to heatment. (Ib.1.d." p. 19."

, -',', .' "'. -" " , .

22,,' 'This ~ust ~1~$t cet:'ta1ni~ be the"~ri"e, for' the" Phill~pine' prOj,8c,t: ''t1QC-a~,~ of the "n¢tttuDus aJ;'ea ~of': the tar'ge~ (the eht·ire, Phillipine 'isla,nds). , ',Becaus,'~, ,.the', soy.th " ,:Fl(t~1;~a 'tatgE;lt ar$~ '~as ,so 'muCh. S\ll.~1;l~,r, it is no,~ c,l~ar"whether o'r,:no-r:; ~impson-'¥<luJ,.d h~\re f,:o,und,mo,re cl"buds i~ she, hsd.,uB,ed ,mor,e ',air,draf,t" ", "" '\

- -I' ' '.' I , \

'23 .• '$ee f~~~t. 6. I '.

) 24. i3~i~··.H.r.h (1972),p. 2: .

, ,M±iitta~y :$J:,~~o~8::,~,liid th~'t ,Qne mai~ $?8,:j. wa,s ",to' iri~~$a/3e ,the' ,;a~~a,tJ~on' of, th'e:,' 'lIout;PWe.st 'ntorsoon" ,whi~b'\ $pawns ,h1gh"'r.1sdong· ilUJll\1,i:~s clouc;\'s -- those.- '~s't ,'.suscept+bl~, . :~, " (::0, !~~ou~.':,"e~in,',:"~.'oYer t~e ,pa'nban~l~' areas_ o{:Laos and NO:.t\h,'V1:et1?-8tn from ~y ,to'

,'09to,ber., , I' . ·1

1&~·

• l. / .

"<, . j"

\! '\' ~

\

i: '

At'i" bf ;el1e ~'ffj;rii~J! {:l!n't,e:t;J;tew~'~f also" sa:il,d the "U ~ S. did' not have' ~he capab:q.if:r ' ,to, c~n~se Sj~fio.Us ~l'ooll~', iit" ,Nor~h, Vietnam (Ibid '\' p, 1) 'j ,~~rsh c~~ll~n:~J:",£~~d' QlJ,t

, i~f" ¢,loud, seed1ns:;oPel]B..tions" l1ave been: c'arrie'd "O\lt o~~.r NQrth !V:1;etnaro -sinc.e the , b'Q'g:inn~n~ ',o~ ,~1tli';,'~i,\l:~rertt, ~O'Ii:\~h 'Vie~~amese of~ens;lve' .. '(Ibid,;, p~ 1/: i5. foytavin (1916), p.324.

26'. PO,uyan:n'e (1931);: Atl,as. '~late 13~ , T' ',z

\ 27,. :AJ.:~' .8.tim~t.~

28. i'See ',Rabe'q\1aih

are' base:d upon" f;l..gure 6"

(19'29), p.301. •

" ,,,

,i!' 1'/,".

. :',' ' , , ' " - ' " ' 'I" ,,' ''':

,29.' ,:llb:1:d'oi,,:,PI 30!j,1. 'fh'e.se:'estimates of the fldw"'rates ot the. Chti upstrelam of the Itat,' Thulj>I1'&, ,dam (are very, rough. Tb~''h1,ghest .1li!vel ,ever ,t',each:e.a by 'the, e'hu ,~ere, was ~h'40, \tIJI,te... This occur,ed during, th,egre.t f:/.004 of :/.9,2] (aee, Cn~H~", II fe, .,' d .. cription ~~ tl!~t f1~od). ' , ( , ,

';. ;~~

'i 30,,· $e',.,:'£ootnote ",19 '!for"',~hat we' have been able to fin4.:o~t,,~bo,u.t' weathei' ,dmdiiio'ns , ~n' ~or.thefl1 Laos" "

3~.Sf"A""nd,.tt :1 (1971~), p. 5~; p. 79.

, 32, Ib~d."!pp,, '71"80.'

~3.~~i'd., pp. 71-80,.

'34"~ '~~r!'~ devastating demonsttation of, the way nat:ura.:L var1abil1,ty in 1."8inf411 can, 1U.,scar~del:,as ran effect' due to, 'rai~fal1,,,- see Cha:ngnoI')., Jr. and Huf£ (1967). ,A1~o ••• Lo" •• ich 'et al (1970) and Ruff (1971). , ,

/'" I'" ,,' " "

, :J.5.S~' Bils".s ee a1 ,(1967). /,.-" \ "

'36i"Si.;p.~~,l!I14 nennie (197~!i ,pp. 51-52. t ' • ',', .- " 'I '

37. $h~p1ey(19'V'P.l~18t, -, • " ," - I," _,:";,, ': :

38. 'De,.siiv. (191,~'), p'. ~'. ' .... ':': ",',1<' "\",:" : ': "l ./, :,:-"" ,,:

3g:, 'S •• , £ot·"1"l~l •• McN.ughton~" .. : ' ' ,",

" ,,'

\'! '

'-',,'.". :rhe' sr,~'sent U,S'. obj'ective in ,'~1patnau/1~.':tO:,,~VO'.1d .. hUm1~-i~tion'., ,'; Why w_, h~ve llun" on" ie~,':'by a~l-':odds,' one .rea.son: -CL) To 'p:r~ser~~, our reputa,t!on a~

, '4' gUa,,t'4r\:tO:t;', ~n~' t~u,s ito ptes~rve. our ~f£ec'!;~v:e~~~s' i~,,:the :+',est of the wor~d.

\

'" We :h~:ve: not IhunS :'on .(2), to, savel. a: ~,p'ieI').d., ,',o,r (3.), ': td deny" the' Conulltm-ists th~ ,~d<l8::d: .-~el\.s',. 8lld'h~4d~ (b~C8us.e the 'dOm:LnoB: .(ton:',t-, ,f.9;l1 ,for _ tha,t ·~e.~Bon ,tn ',this" ..

, e.",e,:)' 011 ,:e;y:$n,' ('4)' to! p:t'o've" t;ha,t "wat's' of n~.t:l;?hoj;L~ :,,1iberatton" won:! ,t, wO,rk', ($,xcep't , 'aih o'ur - rep,utat1(i)n, :Ls, invQlv'd., ' •. '. (Gravel,: Editipn of -ths':'J?entagon PapeitS, ,tv~, '\P,.:,:~,7)~ :',:') , ,'" \ ' ' ,- , \" ' ,,'C,

, ; * '( , '

'defended areaB ~OBts us one pilot 1n every 40 sorties. In addition, a,n im­portant but hard~to-measure cost is domestic and world opinion': There may be a lilll~t beyond which 'many' Americans and much of rhe, world will not permi,t the United Stat;.es to go. The'picture of the world's greatest superpower killing or seriously injurirtg 1,000 non-combattants a week,. while trying to poynd, a t;1ny backward -pat ion into submission .an an issue whose· meriU are hotly disputed, 1s not a pretty 'one. It could conceivably produce a costly d1stprtion in tpe American national conciousness and in the world image of the United St'a:ties -- especially 1£ the damage to North Vietm~m is complete enough"to be "successful." , J. I

The'most important risk, however, is the ,likely Soviet, Chinese and North Vietnamese reaction to inteneified U.S. air attacks, harbor mining, and ground ac.tions against: No'rth Vietnam. (Ibid., p. 172).

40. Assuming a cos.t ',of about $600 a d~y seeding materials 8ll:d flares (see St:...Amand et a1 (19-718), Pol 71). The total, cost the 1.971 Florida drought ,seeding ,experiment seeding was done by a DC-6 and a B-57 and was conducted over a 61 day per1dd -- was

. $165,000 (Woodley et al (197l), p. 133). , " ," "

41, St.-...... nd et a1 (197lb),p. 143.

42. se'e St. Amand et a1 (1971a),' p. 72; and the AP dispatch AuguBt '2, 1972 New York Titnes. ,Also Bee Smith (1967) for a 'effect. 0,£ cloud' seeding ,persist for. PlOr~ than a year.

4

from Manila in the suggestion that the

43. Rapp, (1910)', p. 8 land p. 4 (we have juxtaposed ~he order of the two excerpt in t~e original·text).

\

Chapter Sil< \ ; , , '

1. ,Hano:f, :~.i (At:t$u~t "29-, 1971,)., Trans', on fl'orth', Y1.,etnam #1028, pp. 19""'120. ,I' i " "'. ' ,

" ,i'_"!!

2 .. Nhan'Dan" (Atigus,t '25, 1971) t '.I;~anslat16n:s on No,rth Vietn~" 111014:, p. 22:,

3. Nhan Dan (A1.!gust 15, 1971), Ib;Ld., pp. '23-24.

,'J \:~ 0

, \-" hH.<i,\;: ·4. ¥tu1oi,~.~ (August 21),1971), T~ans._,on Nortl\:Vie'tnam'# lO~7;,p.;16. '

5. ,Hano'i Mo~ fSeptemb~;t't 1', i971),), Ti:Anl$,~ on No:~th ,V1et?a~ 111~)28, p., , ,

6. aano;C Moi (September I, 1971)" ibid." p. 37. ,I ~' : , 1.-) ,~.j.

f

,1:.-

'7. Miri~~'t~~; ~~,'~ia1~ and 'food'prodticts (1971), p. 2. ',::. '

8. Nguyen (1971). p. 2.

'9.' ~no~ ,'Mo1 (August 2.6, 1971), ,:~ra.ns. 'on ,'North ~,,"\ '. ,\ .

1.0. it.noiMoi (A~&u.<46, Bn)"bid., p. ~2. , ", I

Vietna"1 (I Hj44, p. 3.:

11.: ,See- the -erd,p ,calendalt ip. '}pperidix 5. Abou:t 950,:00.0. ~.ectar.e!3 'ate devO't'.d 't.9 t~e' Ju:ne c):;'op,., This .compare·s to 4he, 1,,40.0.,0.00 'hectares deVpted, tb tl).e Novemb'er cr~rp. (See Tr4n' (1964,), p. ,'51). Nil' June crop at' all .. t:O'u1:d' ,j)e growtl .. on abQut, ,220,000.'

'4ec~ares '0£ the Red'Riv,er de1ta.wlthput irrigation. Yields on anothei' :'80"o.O(}, hect~tes wpuli;1 be at leas~ 20.",to :30. per cent 10w~,r wifehout ,ad~q,u,ate 1,rl;"fgat:;ton. '(Sa, ;.poUY,anne (1931), p. 79). , In :g~llera1,~ yields ~n c;rops suf,fe'ring:, frofll ' drought 4r,e n!aar,ly 'cut in ha1~ (~a' (1969)',' ':P,' .20.)'. DurJng 1955..,.1'963' an average ,:0£ 1;30.,,0.00., hect,ar",s"o£ the, J,un'e crO',p 8uffe:t;'ed.\ftflZlm d.rQugh~. i In 196~ 225,,000. heetaX'es suffered "from d1=O'Ught. (See :U.S. DE,ipt of Agr.1culture, (196)5), p. \~7.) Of all North: Vj,etn,am',s"'re81ons~ ,the pa~~andle',is mo's·t dep'ende:nt oIl irrrigation .for ':(1:,9 June crop"" ,":'., ; .'~ the Tonkin delta does ,tt9t" live :under the con,st~:nt menace' of.' dr?,ugilts, of ,p~a8u~s ·which 'fall ;u},)on :th,e' . cQuntrY"at 'frequent. :intervals and reduce tha populati0ll" t9 ,:',farn1Qe, as is ·the ,caSe wtth t;h~,disasters,wh:fichlfre<j.uentlY ravage ~ghe An.~. (G9uro:u,(1936),t:'p'. 68)"" ',AB,~or' "

",:,1'hal')h HO'a, ". . . wh$n co}\lpa:ring the irregu1ar-ity' of ,precipil;a'tion' [:tn, Thanh ,Hoa 'to, ' To~kin and Ngbe' An],' rt W?Utd appear ,'th'st Thanh ,l-loa is s:tngu~B:rly' untavoredJ",' ftforrr'.' "

. N,oY,ember, to' .. Ma~~~, . " .. ' ",dUl;1n'$ ,whd.ch, ':Lts,.~g:r:LcuJt~r,~,,~eve,r 'suf:~el's' (rqnl' ,excessi;ve .. -rairtfiip,. :not ,only.', c'an dtou'ght ev:en -wot/se t4an: t\1ose, fit Ngh.· An 'appear ,at",:tlle. be'g:t1;\­

,i', '",pin'g, .tci~ ... the' dry .. '~.easqn]/ b,ut 'th~ on$et: of, the period', of spril'lg tn1stl!jl1 [CJiJ1ehi~)-, may' ,l>~"d.l,.y.d even mor~ than iu Tonk4n.(Ro,~~qua1n ('l.P~P)' ~. 47. )" ,Dur'4l& the dty , , ' ,

i lSS

; ,\ ;

season, a ten day spell ot dry weather will often kill ,off the crop on urtrr:1gated land (Gourou' (1940), ,p~ 77).. Note that, attacks on' the irrigation' ,system during the, rainy se~on would, -beeil1des increas~g, :~he danger of q,?ods, ,also,: ha'rm th~ November crop .in the lIIidlands and highlands.· In 19$5-1963 an average of about 150,000 bet;:tares in these· areas' suffer.ed from drought du'X'ing ,the N01.fember rice season (Ii.s. Dept. <if AgriGulture (1965); p. 17). .

12. See Gravel Edition of the 'Pentagon Papers, IV, 'po 154. Also see pp. 244-245. Implicit in these discussions was t~e use 'of U.S. troops.

13. Quqted by Anthony Lewis (New York Times', June 26, 1972) from the official tranecr1p~-of the April 30. 1972 ne~s conference.

14. New York Times, June 30. 1972.

15. Now York Times., July I, 1972.

16. New Yor'k"Ti~st, -!une 30, 1972.

17, Se. Tongas J196Q), IIoney (1962), lIoang (1964). Fsll (1964), pp/ 156-15.1 clsims 50,000 people were' killed' durin,g the 1954-5-6 campaign against former landlords"'and another 100;000 'sent to forced labor camps. He a1ao says that 6,000 peasants w,re deported or executed in connection with a 1,956 uprsing' of Catholic peasants' in-' Nghe All p .... vf. ... , I,'ort.r.(t~rthoolling) ha. gOllt illto aU th ••• charS •• very car.fully .,.cl haa· a •• duded tbjLt ·10.. _.)000 people vere· exeout.d dnrilli th.l_lord · • ...,.i.... Aa tor 1I&he All. h. believe. thot hUha. blow th. uprisiDil' •

. u.,oritAoe out of &11 popel' proportiou; Se ti'Dds no evid.JiGe tor olaim. of 'ri4o.,"114 <I .... th. _ deportatiOilo (perooll&1 .-...Iioation).

18. See U.S., Al'ID), (l~62) p~,.' 132-1136, for, the number of Catholic regugees in South

Vietnam and the 'treatment '0£ Catholics in ltorth Vietnam since 1954; pp., 166-167 for forced labor in North Vietnam; pp. 373-375 for the 1954-1956 campa'ign -against' the landlords and an aoblique ref_renee ,to Nghe An (no mention of mass ex~cutions, deportationB,/ and imprisQnmebt in fither- case). '

18.' Se. U,S. Ar",y (1967), p. 89 for the claim th~t 50,000 to 100,000 p~opIe· we .. . killed during the 1954-195'6 csaipaign against the'lsndlord ••

20. New,York Times, July 28, 1972.

21. lbid., July 28, 1972.

22:' Ibid., July 28, 1912.

23. New Y4'tk"T~me,~ edi~,ion of the Pentagon Papers"p. 298; p. '423; p. '422;,"'p,-~'4'33;' p. 440; p. 421; and p. 338 respectively.

24. Quoted by Kolko (1970), p. 225.

25. International Military Tribunal, XVI (1948), p. 12; pp. 14-16. I'. l' ,

1158

Appendix Three

1. Se. Siap ....... 01 »eDDie (1972), pp. .....56 t.r .... 01 die ..... i ....

2. Se. B&tta.. (1969), pp. 62-72 &Dd Simp .... &Dol »eDDi. (1972), pp. 6loo70.

3. S •. o B&tta.. (1969), 70-72 &Dd Simp .... aDd »eDDie (197~), pp. 7loo1oo.

4. B&tta.. (1969), p. 71.

5. '.r briet .verYiev. &Dd bibli ... apbi ... eo Triba. (1970) &Dd ""m.nd (~!171)~

6. Qu.ted by !latta.. (1969)" pp. 85-86.

7. S.e lIo,..a (1967), p. 296.

8. S •• 1I.,..a (1967) and 11._ &Dol S.ott (1967) t.r mucb .. r •• ..,...b .... iv. oo.,.D4iu.. ot IUGae •• tull aDd unauooe •• tul expert •• nt ••

9. S •• 1I.,..a ai..al (1969) &Dd Lonoiob Ii..Iol (1970).

10. So. 110_(1967), 110_ &Dd S.ott (1967), &Dd Lonot.b.li..al (1970) t •• baeie di ...... i ....

11. S •• Gab.i.l (1967).

12. S •• S.i th a1..a1 {1967}.

13. See lIe_ ai..al (1967).

14. S •• 1I.,..a and S •• tt (1967) and L ...... si.b s1..!l (1970) to. 4h .... ot ... &D4 .0 •• d.toil.d breakdown.. So. L.valicb et .1 (1971) t •• tho po •• ibilitT ~t the apparent elteot i. due' to a hiddeR bi... '

15. S •• Blli.tt s1..!l (1911).

16. Se. L.v.oi.b!!-ll (1910), pp. 157-158. , •• bri.t explanati •• 0' otobUi ty 1~ •••••• th ..... li •• dio .... I1 ... • t C\;yD&IIi •••• 011 ... 1 .. thh &ppe .. tx;

1&7

17. Thi. -table i. ba.ed up~n material assembled tor constructing table 9 in chapter 5. See footnote 17, chapter 5 tor discussion.

18. See Crawford (1966), Lehrman (1971), Science tor Viet Nam, Chicago Collective (1972), and Silic •• (1972).

19. Thi. 1s the Ca.e tor Hanoi. Se. Pouyanne (1931), Atlas, plate 7 (monthly rainfall at Hanoi 1907-1929) and plat. 9 (average monthly rainfall at Hanoi 1907_1929).

20, Steertng t,yphoons into southern Yunnan might be particularly ettective. See Pouyanne (1931), p. 9.

21. Dr. R. Cecil Gentry, personal communication. Also lee Fisher (1958) tor 'Iugge.tive evidenoe that hurricanes preter,to tollow traoks along the &fa •• of warme.t water.

22. Ghe •• (1944), p. 153.

23. See Simpson and Simpson (1966) tor di.cusslon.

24.. Ibid., p. 1061.

25. See Gentry (1963), p. 685 t.r discussion.

26. Cr.ssman (1950), p. 332.

27. See Simpao~ and S~~aon (1966). The Simpsons give .. very detailed desoription of ' how seeding is thought to result in .. lowering ot .. hurrioane's peak wind .peeds.

28. See ~., pp. 1052-1056 tor the. 1961 and 1963 e~erim8nts. See Gentry (1969) and Gentry (1970) tor detail. of the 1969 experiment.

29. Por &i1,estimate of the amount of warming caused by the seeding, see Battan(1969), pp. 114-115.

30. Dr. R. Cecil Gentry, peraonal ooauni'cation. Abo aee Gentry (1970), p. 214.

31. see Science for Vietnam, Chicago Collective (1972)., p. 7.

32. Tl'~1/U' (1970), p. 207.

33. There are other ways a stormis intensity might be a'lter'-d. One involve. suspending a oloud of plastic bubbles over the upper boundary of the storm'a eye in the stratosphere. The warming which this might oause oould result in a weakening ot the atom 's intenei ty,

168

At the""top lot the wind ciDoulation relative :to -the center·ot the hurr1c,ue b .. ousp 'point Whioh" ~ kinematically, i8 a' point of zero wind .peed relative to the moving at01'lll center a.t the .urface., ,Plastic bup.O~el in8erted at the top of the storm in the ,vioini ty of the cusp point would tend to maintain their p08ition relative to t~e~movina center and, by ablorbtion of infrared radiatioD, contribute to a

progr.ssi've wa.rmina of the layer • • • Duch I bubble. OaD be produoed] in large numbers with diameters al small a8 s.veral .ioron.. These OaD

08Jl be generated and dispersed. from _iJioraft. ' It h p08l!lible to iJnpr"gna.te ~e8e bubbles' with 'diil.1;,9"'ceO)ls eaJ'ths to provide s.lect1ve absorotion o'f radiat~:on in the' inti-ared ,l"Qlff" oorresponding to the __ radiating temperature of 'the hurricane cloud sy,tem. (Simpson aad Simpaoa (1966), p. 1059, 1~58"'Order of. ~xerpt. rever •• d in text.)

Yet another possibility ,i~, that w'ealter 'stOl'RlS might be" tuned into ~urricanes. The greenho1.l.e,·-~t:t.c·t 'of 'heavy cloud cover over a s1.OI'lD oenter . ". • • aia.Y play an i~ortlUl1;;' role, in. the Warming required, to transtorm &

mild cold core tropical disturbanc. int,o the' warm core needed tor turner i»;tensitication ••• A vi,ti-1' question ia whether [suo"l extensive &I1Ti1 covers may be introduced artificially (Simpson and,Dennis (1972), p. 135)."

34. Gourou (1936), p. 64.

35. For the 10 Year period 1947-1956 (s.e Sohutz (1967), p. 23). Duri .. th'i18 same period an average of 1.8 typhoons a yea.r .struck the 'North Vietnaaea. ooaat. 'Six storms hit South Vietnam south of latitude 15 aft.r their windapeeds ,had fallen below typhoon i·ntend ty.' R&intall is probably Dot affected by such weakening of peak wind veloc_itiea(SimpBoD &I1d Simp.on (l9~), p. 1046). .

36. 'Ha (1969), p. 6.

F. Hanoi Hoi (August 12, 1971), P. 43.

38. See Lovasich ~ (1970).

39. S.e Neyman and Osbo""e (1971).

40. See. Neyman rl..!l (1969) and Lovasich .t 01 (1971). , 41. ~ S.~ ,Elliott anA· Brown. (197~).

42. The 'rainmaking project. ~~e run in 1966 and 1967. Se. Adderley (1968).

43. The rainmaking 'projects were Brier .ll...Il(1967).

run'cluring the period 19'~1964. ,. S ••

44. Se. Brown and Elliott ,(1968).'

4'. S.e Warburtcn (1971).

46. \The matter is c'omplex. For a. good overview, pp. 131-143. Also .e. Addlerley (1968), p. 45,

47. SiIDpson and Dennis (1972), p', 134.

48. ~., p. 134.

49. JlWl., p, 1)5.

50. Se. Schutz (1967) ,tor windtlows.

'51. Simpson andDennio (197~), 11.,137,

"2. Nam,

For detaiis see the'reference$ in Warburton Chicago Collective (1972), p. 12.

\

... Simpaon and Dennil (1972). . and Boven (1968), pp. 1-5.

(1971) and Scio .... tor. vi.t

159

53. The eoo~ogioal etf.ets ot 's;l.lv8'r .·:~l'e ,not 'We,~l unde.rsto9d. At pre.ent, the soantyev·icienee availab1e s~ge.t"~,~, 8ilve~'poi.s far h~s. c1aDg.r ~ the envtroment than mel'cul''Y or lee.c1.' But\muoh,~iaol"e re'search-:is ne.clea in order to b. sure. Por an exoel18nt l'e ... iew ,oj~' the' pre.ent state. of knowled,e .e. Cooper and Jolly (1,970). 4100 •• e Voodley e,t ;'1 (l97X)" pp. 143-149.'

54. Se. Hersh (1972.), p. I. "

,y

ALoo .e. the toUo'f,',up fI',Horeh (19721», I

GENERAL BIBLIOGRAPHY

Arakawa, H. Climate. of North.rn ,,!,d Ea.terl> Asia. Vo1_ 'l! of Helmut . . La.ncisberg (ed.> World SurveY of Climatolon. Amsterdam, "1969.

Barkan, Robert. "The Laser Goes into Battle." New Scientist. 21 (1972), pp. 84-86.

Bartholomew, John (ed.). The Times Atlal of the World, Vol~ I., London, 1958.

Biaorpe. "L'~aliqu. Alrioo1. dan 10 Delta ToDkinois." Bulletin Eoonomique de L'Indoobiue, ~, lIaaoicule 3 (1938), pp. 486-515.

BoUault, J. and Claire Lata.te. Geographie de L'Indocbine: La Tonkin • . Hanoi-llaiphong, 1932.·

- 'l"0_phie de L'Indochine, L'Annam. Hano~~aiphong, 1932.

Bnok, Part B of Y. Berlin, 1931 •

. CabaQea, Bernard-Joseph.' Dispatch ,frOm Phu Thi province. Le Monde, July 18, 1967, p. 3.

Calder, Ni •• l (ed.). Uulep. Peace Come.. New York, 1968.

16.1

, . .

Central Census Steering Committee. "Otticial GoverDlD8nt.R!port on 1960 Census in North ,Viftnam.'" Nhan ban, November 2, 1960, p. 3. :,~"JPRS #6570 J .... uary13. 1961. pp. 1-7.

Chome~. Noam. Pref&c~ to Duffett (1970). pp. xiii-xix.

DiDh Van Lu. ttNitrogen Fertillizer,aDd the'Hew Rio~ Strains in the Ten~onth Rice Season." [boa Hoo ThUO~Uc,(354), June 30, 1971, p. 2. ~ Tr ..... latiol\8 on North Vi. #1015 (JPIIB '# 54118). Septe .. ber 23. 1971.

,', pp. 4Q-41.' '

DoroDila, .Amando. Dispatch from Niah Blu, No;rth VietDam. Chl"istian SoiellO. , . Mollitor (New ~ngland Edition). Septomber 8. 1967. p. 11.

DaDaont, ~ne. "t1ne Agriculture P&1'ii~uli.reUl.nt Vulnerable." La'Monde', July 6. 1965. p. 3.

n.oa, Hong Hien. , .. ,,' 1970. W .•

"Crop Multiplica.tion. 1I

7-36. in. Vie~name8e Studie, #27. lIaIioi.

ra11. Berilard •. Tho Two Viot-N8II\8 (Revised Edition); New York. 1964.

Poao.lp Lanpa.g." ,Publ~.h:iug House. Amerioan Airora.tt Syate_iioallY Attack aDd :oeetroY Dikes in the· D. R. Vi. N. Hanoi", 1968. '

('.'

Gauthier! 'J. Dip •• du Toakin. Bulletin Eoonom~qu. de ~'Ind:oohine, , 2! \1930), Bore:S,r1e 1=3.

Gourou, Pi.rre~ Lee Pal!aDS du nelta Tonkinoi.. Paris, 193~.

_ "L'Util1.ation du Sol En Indochina Francaise. PariS, 1940. I', '

1.62

Gravel Ediiion. The Pentagon Paper.. Vol~ 4. Boston, 1972.

Sa ICe Tan. "Water .',In, the ,Eoonomy and Daily, Lite." (52) December,' 1969, pp. 11-24. In #752 (~1lS #50924)" July 10, ,1970, "'=-"""'iF

, • "Twenty..tiye Years of Water Conservanoy Work and Advances ot -and Technology in Water Conservation. II ::r:~,... 1970, pp. 1-7. In .. -,:""',.... February 5, 1971,

"Grain Sector S1jitengtbens Flood and Typhoon Control." 12, 1971, p. 1. in ' #54158), Spet,ember 29,

Banoi Moi. "Municipal Administration Committe. Issues Rur~l Agrioultural Production After Floocls." p. 1, p. 4'. In~~i~~~~!!!!!U~!!..1~~!...:!!!.~

DirectiVe on Re.torina August 26, 1971,

(JPRS #54511), _November 17, 1 \

Hoang Van Chi. Prom Colonialism to Communism. London, 1964.

, Ho~y, P. J. North Vietnam Tod&t. Nov York, 1962.

International Military Tri~l. Trial of the II&jor War Criminals, ProoeediDao, Volume 16. Nuremberg, 1948.

Jaubert, Alain. (1972), pp.

"ZaPPing 'the Viet"ConS 'by Computer.", New Scientist, a 685-688.

KeY8~ ADcet, Jose,f Bro.aek, Austin Henshcel, Olaf Mickel,on, ADd B.~ Long.treat Taylor, with the as,istano. ot Emit SimonlCD, Anaie SturaeoD Skinner, -BD4 Samuel N. Wells. The BioloBY of H~ Starvation • . Minneapolis, 1950.

Kolko, Ga-brie1. "Revert on the Destruction of the Dike.: 1l011and 1944-45 aDd. Korea ,1953." in'Duffett (1970), pp.,224-0226. " /, '

163

Laoo.te, YVe8. "L'Aviation Amerioaine Peut-Provoquer ,. Catastl-pphe .... Toucher Direotement Ie Dipe. Nord-Vietnamienne •• " La Monde, June 7-8, 1972,' p. 3

Lapedts, Daniel ,~. (Edi'tor-in-Chiet) McGraw Hill EnoY10pedia of 'Soieno'e, Volume 5. New York, 1971.

Lefebvre. IIInnondatiollS de 1913." Bulletin E'oonomisue de L"Indochine, l! (191), pp. 1002-1041.

• ,"Innondations de 1913 dans Ie Bas.in du Pleuve Rouge .t 18. Bassin '~.oonda.ires.II' Bulletin Economigue de L'Indoohine, II (1916), ~;~>' 1012-1042.

Littauer, Raphael aa4 Norman Uphoff (ed.). The Air War in Indoohina (Revi •• d Edition). Boston, 1972.

Lockwood, Lee. " t Targets of Opportunity, t The Dikes.". 1972, pp. 5-6.

Th, Bolton Phoenix, Augwot1,

Mi~i8tr,y of Grain aDd Food'Produots. "Preserving Food Provisions ~tected b.y September 12, 1971, p. 2. In Tr&l1sl&t1ons from

(JPRS #54288), Ootober 20, 1971," pp. 27:28.

~da~, Gunnar •. Adan Drama, Volwae 1. New York, 1968.

pp •. 10/ 1972,

Naval Intelligence Division. London, 1943.

Indo-China (~\ographiC Handbook Ser~.8):.

New York Times Edition. The Pent.Bon Paperl. New York, 1971. /

Ngo ~iDh Long. Before the Ausust Revolution. M.I.T. Pres", \ fonhcoming.

N~n Tbao. liTo Whatever'Poin~ the Water Reoedes Plant Crops to t4at Point." 1rl""'DO~S.ptember 14, 1971, p, a. In Tranilltioni .f~o .. 110_ Yl __

54294), October 21, 1971, ,pP, 39:42.

164

\

Nllaniliii' "Proteot Dike •• " Monitored on Auau.t 28. 1971 tr ...... isd.n trom iiioi. 11\>41.. In ff"""1at*9\:stromiNO:dh Viet ..... # 1012 (JPRS.# 54080), : 'Stptember' 17, 14 , pp', 0:13., ' ' ,

NIlan Dan •. "Ro .•. t.rina '.looded lIi.o." Nhan Dan. August 30. 1971. p.2. In Tr .... lati.n. trom North 'Vietnam I lois (JPRS # 54158). S.pt.mber 29. 1971, pp. 4t:4~.

! ;J"o~il1/,- i/, "Le., Cruel '~u Pleu"", RoUf8." Builetin EooD.om19ue de L'tndpohint, , !1 ('1914). pp.15-45. '

"~L"'~ 'Che,', du Pleuv, Rouge' .t La De:t:en.e duo Dtl ta du Tonkin ---r;;. lnondations." Bulletin Eoonomiout !II. L·lndoohi .... 3! (1924). pp~ 207 .. 246.

HuttO~i~t- M. 'Y •. , cumatoiOrC&l Data of. vi~W', Lao~.', and Cl\!Dbodia. WaShington, D. C., 19 3.

\ Po7t&T1"':::.:~"".Q~edu 'leun 110 ..... t i. ... lnnondation. du Tol\kin en 191'." Bull.th E.onomique de L·IJldoohille., 1! . (ln6)/ pp. 297-367.

Porter, D. Gareth. "Bombing the' Dikes." The' New Rep'U61ic, Jun.); 1972', pp. 19-20.

Bulletin Econo~i9ue d.

• L'Rydralilue WicGle -au ToDkin, Atlas. "BulleUn Eo~nomi9u" de L·,'Ill4oohln8, ,I:; ~ Bor.s-Ser.!-2 (1931).' '

1'1> •• :l.4,n1;'. Soienoe Advisory Committee.

165

•

Quarterly Review Staff. liThe Attack on the Irriga~ion Dama in North Korea." Air University Qua~terlY Re~ ,Winter 195:3':'54, .2. (4), pp. 4~1.

Robequa:.in, Charles. Le Thanh ~oa. Pa.ris and Brussels, 1929.

• Economic Development of French Indo-China~ Tra.nslated by ---Ysabel A. Ward. New York, 1944.

Schaaf, C. Bart and Russell H. Fifield. The Lover Mekong: Challenge to Cooperation in southeast Asia. New York, -' 1963.

Sc~ut., C. Monsoonal Southeast As

TOD,ga.s, oerard.. J'ai Vecu Ohoisis'la Liber

Rain and Cloud Throu out e eninsula an t e ' santa Monica, Cali

8 L'Enfer Communist au Nord Vie~am et J'a1 9 O.

p

Trail llaIlg Kho&. 1964{ pp.

''Wate'r ConservaDcY in Nor~ ,Vietnam. II 44-76.

VietDamese'Studies,(2),

Tribunal Rus •• ll.

Truong Quo. Thai. 1971, p. 2. November 2,

Le Judgement de Stockholm. -Paris, 1967. ,

"Caring for ,Retransplanted ,Rice. II Nhan Dan, September In Tranel"io~ i'rom North Vietnam #103' c 1J'PRs #54384) 'c

1971, pp,. u.. 4f.', "

u.s.~. cAre. RaDdbook to~ Vietnam. W.shington, D. C., 1962.

_. Ar.a.lIa.ndbook tor North Vietnam. Washington, D. C.,, '1967.

u. S. Departiaent of AFicul ture. W.sbington, D. C., 1965.

Afiioultural Economy of North Vietnam • .fis Foreign-123 ) .

25,

U.· S. Department ot S"ta:te •. "IntelU,8nce 'Report on Bombing of Dikes in North Vietnam." The New York Tim.s t July 29, 1972, p. 2.

Vo Nhan ~ri. Croill.ano. Economisue de 1a ReVublisue Democratique du Viet Nam. Banoi, 1967. '

V •• tin., Arthurl R., and E. W. Pteitfer. "The Cratering of Indochina."

Scientific American. 226 (~, 1972), pp. 21-26.

BIBLIOGRAPHY ON WEATHER CONTROL

A44.tl~T, B. B. "BaiDlall, Increased Downwind from Cloud Seedina Projecta in. Aua~lia." Proo, of the Firat Nat. Cant. on Weather ModificatioD. Alkoly, 1968, pp. 42-46.

Bat_, Loub J. u.rve.tiy the Cloud.. Garden City, 1969.

-' "Vbitotop Experi.ent." (Lettor) Soionce, ~5 (1969), p. 618.

Ii.".., I. a., R. I, Kapoor, &Del K. K. Kanup.. "Cloud Se.dina ExperilHDt Vdllll CO_08 Salt." J. of Applied MeteoroloKY' ! (1967), pp. 91 .... 923.

Bow.~ B. G. "Re'Yiev of Current Australian Cloud-S •• dina Activities." PrOOf of the Firlt Nat. Cont .. on Weather Modit06t10D, Albany, 1968', pp. i-1.

11"181',' GleDA v., Tho .. B. Carpenter, 'and Dwight'B. Kline, "So~ ·Prob'l,~m.' 1n a.aluatiDl Cloud S,.dina Ettect, over Bxtenaive Areas." ~ BeJ'kel" Sl!p. 011 Math. Stat. and Prob., Berkeley, 1967, pp. 209-222 •

. 1Inv!a. keith J ..... d Robert D. Elliot. "Lor,. Soale Dynemic Ett.ct. of Cloud " See4iD,." PrOOf ot the firlt Nat. Cont. on Weather Moditication, Al~, ~968, pt. ,t&:Z5.

168

Jr:. aud P. A. Butt. "The Efrect of Natural Rainfall Variability l~;~~;~ ot Rain Modification lixperiment •• " in Proc. of tl!e F.i. fth

':" vol. 5, Berkeley, 19~,

Cooper, Charloa P. and Villiam C. Jolly. ''Ecological Ettecta of Silver Iodide and Other W •• the .. Moditioation'J.centat A Review." Vater Resouro •• Reeearch, !, 1 (1970), pp. 88-98.

C'ravtord, Norman. "Hydrological Consequenc •• 'ot Veather: Modification: C .... Studies." in V. R. Derrick $.".11 (ed.) Human Dimenliona of- Veather Modification. Chicago, 1966, pp. 41-60.

, Crelsman, George P. "The Development and Motion ot Typhoon 'Doris,' 1950."

Bulletin ot the Am.rican Meteorolosical Society,l!o 9 (1951), 'pp', ')2(;.:0333. -, {,

DeSilva" Bruce. "P.ll Pe.l. U.S. Wagel V.ather V.rfare." The ProTidence Sundaz Jo,......l, June 25, 1972, p, 1, p. ,4.

:;.'

Dermis, , A. S. and A Koscielski... "Results of a Randomi •• d Cloud Se.ding Experiment in South Dako~." J. Applied Meteorology, ! {1969l; pp,. ,"6-56', '

Elliott, Robert D. and Keith J. Brown. "The Sante Barbara II Project­_nd Eff.ct •• " Proc. Int. Cont. on VoatherModifio"Uon, : Canberra,; 1971, pp. 179-184. ' ,;'

Elliott, Robert D., Pierro S_d, and Joho R. Thompaon. "Santa BarMf;'\", Pyro,techoique Cloud •• edi", Toot Reeulte 1967-1970." 'J. of Applie4"',, M.teorolog, 12, 4 (1971), pp. 78'-795.

Pisher, Edvin L. ''Hurricane. and. the Sea-Surtace Tem;peratur8 Pbld. n J. of MoteoroUg, II (1~58), pp. 20'-208. ,

Gabriel, 11:. P. "Tho Iaraoli ArtiUc"l Raintall StilNlation lilIPort;..nt.',,"in PrOOf of the Filth BerkelffY SYmp. on Math. Stat. and Pl"ob.,. Be,l"~l.y,_ 146',." pp.' 91-114.. ' -,' - , ,~\;,: J'

, .', ,I' ' , ". ,"

Ge,ntry, R. Cecil ~ "Poreoasting the Move.ent of Tropical BUr~io~'i Proal of the Szmp. on Tropioal MeteoroloBY, ,Wellington, 1963,

" -;,<1 (SUrvey Paper)." pp. 683-701.

• Modifying tho Groatelt Sto .... on Ear_ Th. Hurrio."".," l1n4ervater ----Scienoe and' Technology JOUl'll&l, 'Deoember, 1910, pp, 204-214.

Hammond, Allen. "Weather Modification: A Teohnology Cominc of Ase." Soience, ill (1971), pp. 548-549.

169

Hersh, Seymour. "~inm'ald.ng is Used ~s Yd.p0l;l by U. S." New York Times, ',.;' I.,..,',! c!u1~,3, 1972&, pp. 1-2.

• "67 Order to' End Rainmaking Reported. II I New York Timei. July 4, oJ ",,191C2J>i'P' ,),' ,;'n~,V "\'

Huff, P. A. "Eva1uation ot Precipitation Records in Weather Modification ~,\,a ~,,\ ~~,~,~men~8~" Advances in GeophYsics, 12. (1971), pp. 59-135.

/

Johnaon, Rady A. Letter to Senator Claiborne Pell of November 23, 1971 on Mi~iltB.l:"Y Uses of Weather jModifioation., (Mr. Johnson $.s A~silJtant, to

t)'!'the' Seareiary ot: Defense tor Legislative Affairs; his lett~r' W&~" ih-" reSpODIJ8, to an inqu:t1\Y by Senator Pell.) CoyrealJional lteccira..:-Senate, January: 26, - 1972, pp. S507-S508. '

, ]);, /::- , .~ :

.,::U !-;,; .,,-

.Kuhn, Thb .... 'The Structure of ScienttficRevolution (Second l!\d~ttqn, Enlarg.d) • Chicago, i 970.

'. ',;I""'i".; ,,:1, ',; WI:

Lehrman, DoD.ald E. IISummer Runoff; Increases by Weather Moditcation~il J. of W.ath.rModification, 1 (April, 1971), pp.' 21)_222.

Lo.Y:~8J;oh~~··':.J'eanne, L.', 'Je,r_zy NeYlD4'D, 'Elizabeth L. scott,' ~ ~~~ol~,,:,A. Smith. ,', "Statistical ·A8p.C~B of Rain Stimulation- Problem, and ;P:t().p'~cts."

Revtew ,of the Int. Stat. Inotl,tut., ' ~ (1), 1970, pp., 155-170.

,,,:; t ,; • , : -'

L • .,.,o~.!>, ,J,.lo., J. Neyman, E. L,. Scott, and M. A. 'W.lls,' '."II.VIIP~Jlitic .. l Expl_tion ,of :"te N.gativ. Appar.nt Etf.ct. of, ,Cloud Seed1ng~n~he Whitetop Exp.rim.nt." Proo. of the Nat. Acad. of, Sci, $ U '(1971), pp., 2643-2646.' ' .

•. <:'t.; ,.1,\<'\). ;'-i,

'Ii;i~it;'~ 11. L. In the N .... of Sci.nce (Revis.dEdition). Ne"torlf.,1910. '. ,

. " ' , '" '

XeYJ!l&D.t Jersy., "I, ,~periment, atio~ with ~eather Contro1.'11 , J,. 'of tee, Ronl. "ha'S'¥ti. Soo; Serip. A (General), nO,Part) (1967,1 pp.2S5_~

I '

I' '.!."rj~"lII-p,:,,~ t,Ier;,zy ',and Berbert J\. Osborn. ''Evi4enoe of Widesprea'4 Ette,~t'g"of :Cloud

,...~ •• 4i-q at Two .Artzona, Experiments." Pl'OC t of: the Nat'. Acad. 'ot"Soi, '68, ) (1971); pp. 649-652. ' r

170

I Neyman, Jerzy, Herbert B. Osborn, Elizabeth Soott, &Ad' Marcella A~ Welle,

"Re-Evaluation of the Arizona Clou~Seeding Experiment." Proc. ot the Nat. Acad. Soi., 69, 6, (1972), pp. 1348-1352.

Neyman, Jarz)" and Elizabeth Scott. "Some Outstaudiq Problems Rel.tina to Weather Modification," in Proe. of the Fifth Berkeley Symp. on Math. Stat. ~ Pro!>_" Bnkele;y~. 1967" pp. 293 .. 326.

Heyman, Jarz)", Elizabeth Soott, and Jerome A. Smith. "Areal Spread 'ot tbe Ettect of Cloud Seeding at the Whitetop Experiment,ll Science, ill (1969), pp. 1445-1448. '.

Rapp, R. R. "Clima.te ModitcatioD and National Security.", (P..4416) 111. BaDd Corporation, Santa Monica Calif_orni .. , 1970.

Soience to.r Viet Nam t Chicago Collective, 1103 East 57th Street, Chicaao, Illinois 60637. The Big Gun is the Rain. PreUllina!'Y RePOrt on th. Use aDd Potential tor GeD sical Wartare the United S~ ....

cago, 1972.

Shapley. Deborah. Scientists. "

tlRa.iDmaking: Rumored Use Over La08 Alarms Arm. Experts, Science, !Zi (1972), pp. 1216_1220.

Silieeo, E. Perez. "A Brief Description of aD Experiment in Artifical Stimulation of Rain in the Necaxa Watershed, Mexico." in Proof ,ot the Pitth Berkeley Symp. on Math. Prob. aDd stat., Berkeley, 1967, pp. 133-146.

• "Tropicai Hurricanes, Rain Stimulation and their Effect in the ~BUnott of the ~ivers in the Hydrological Watershed ot N.caxa, Pue."

J. of Weather Modification. i (bril, 1972), pp. 213-~22.

SimpaoD, Joanne and Arnett S. Dennis. U.S. Department of Co_rce (NOOA Boulder, 1972.

Simp.on, Joanne and William L. Woodley. "Seeding Cumulus Clouds ill. Plorida. New 1970 Results." Scienoe, ill (1971), pp. 117-126.

Silaplon, Robert H. and Joanne Simpson. 'rwhy/Experiment On Tropical SUri'i"c&J18I?" Trans. of tbe New!ork Acad. of Soi., Seri .. II, .a!. 8 (1966). pp. 1045-1062~

J7J

Elliott. Naval

i971.

St...Amand, P., R. S', Clark, ~. L. Wright, ;E. E. Hin.clma.n, II, and W. G. ],innegan. : tlMpdification ot Warm Cumulus Clouds with ft., Bygr,oacopio Solution." Xnt. Cont, on Weft/ther Modifica.tion, Canb.rra.~ Australi&, 1971b, n. 143-144.

8mi th, E. J. "Cloud Seed~ Experiments in Australia. 1I~;il1;k~if,;f.-"i91 BerkeleY'"~' On Maih~_ S'bat. ~ Prob., ",vol. 5, ~ 161_176.

Smith, E" J~, E. E'. Adderley, L. Veitch, and E. Turton', "A CloUd:"Seeding E:qteriment in Tasmania." ,Proo. ,Int. Cont. on Weather Mod~tio .. tiont Canberra, 1971, pp. 91-96.

I

,

Tribe., ~on. ~ai.a1 View. of Cloud s •• ~~pg." SOi.n •• , ~ (1970), pp. 2010411._

':. ,I I

·War.burton,: Joseph. «PhYsical Evidence bf. Transport of Cloud-Beedina ,","rials i~to ·Areas Outside "ot Pri'lnary Targe s." ProOf Int. Cant t on W.ather »odification,' Canberra, 1971, pp. 185-190 •.

Woodley, . William. "Rainfall Enballc.mont by Dynamic, Cloud »edificatio".· Sci." •• , 170 (1970), pp. 127-132.

',-, '

Woodley ~ Wi11iallll L., IJoanne Simp8~n, ,Pal't8lgas, and William Riebsame.

~~!f.~~~~~~~~~Apri~ T Em. 0D-9 ,

172 /