hymotion network-supplied hydrogen unlocks low carbon

A report by Progressive Energy Ltd on behalf of Cadent Technical Appendices June 2019

HyMotion Network-supplied hydrogen unlocks low carbon transport opportunities

Report for Cadent

The authors would like to thank Element Energy for their input to this report. Our thanks also to the following organisations which participated in an informal peer review process relating to this study. It should be acknowledged, however, that the views presented in this report do not necessarily represent those of these organisations.

Acknowledgments

Disclaimer This document is issued for the party which commissioned it and for specific purposes connected with the above-captioned project only. This document contains confidential information and proprietary intellectual property. It should not be shown to other parties without consent from us and from the party which commissioned it. This work includes the assessment of a number of phenomena which are unquantifiable. As such, the judgements drawn in the report are offered as informed opinion. Accordingly Progressive Energy Ltd. gives no undertaking or warrantee with respect to any losses or liabilities incurred by the use of information contained therein.

2 HyMotion Project Report Technical Appendices

Acronym Full Name

ATR Auto-thermal Reformer

BEV Battery Electric Vehicle

BioSNG Bio-Substitute Natural Gas

Capex Capital Expenditure

CAZ Clean Air Zone

CCC Committee on Climate Change

CCA Climate Change Agreement

CCUS Carbon Capture, Utilisation and Storage

CO2 Carbon Dioxide

DfT Department for Transport

FCEV Fuel Cell Electric Vehicle

GHG Greenhouse Gas

GMCA Greater Manchester Combined Authority

GWh Gigawatt-hours

H2 Hydrogen

HGV Heavy Goods Vehicle

HRS Hydrogen Refuelling Station

Ktpa Thousand tonnes per annum

LCRCA Liverpool City Region Combined Authority

LNG Liquefied Natural Gas

Acronym Full Name

Mt Million Tonnes

MtCO2pa Million Tonnes of Carbon Dioxide per annum

MWh Megawatt hour(s)

MWth Megawatt hour(s) thermal

NOx Nitrous Oxides

OEM Original Equipment Manufacturer

Ofgem Office for Gas and Electricity Markets

OLEV Office for Low Emission Vehicles

Opex Operational Expenditure

PSA Pressure Swing Absorption

RAB Regulated Asset Base

RIIO Revenue = Innovation + Investment + Outputs

RTFO Renewable Transport Fuel Obligation

SMR Steam Methane Reformer

TCO Total Cost of Ownership

Tpa Tonnes per annum

TWh Terawatt hour(s)

TWhpa Terawatt hour(s) per annum

vol. By volume

Acronyms

HyMotion Project Report Technical Appendices3

Contents

Pg

1.0 INTRODUCTION 5

2.0 HYDROGEN MOBILITY IN CONTEXT 5

2.1 UK transport GHG emissions by transport mode 6

2.2 UK transport consumption 7

2.3 UK fuel efficiency 9

2.4 Transport emissions in the North West 12

2.5 Energy storage density 13

2.6 Renewable electricity supply 13

3.0 AVAILABILITY AND POTENTIAL FOR COST REDUCTION 15

3.1 State of the art hydrogen vehicles 15

3.2 Projected future reduction in fuel cell system costs 19

4.0 FCEVs AS A COST COMPETITIVE SOLUTION 20

4.1 Hydrogen distribution costs 20

4.2 Hydrogen production costs 21

4.3 Total cost of ownership 22

5.0 MEETING CLIMATE AND CLEAN AIR GOALS 25

5.1 Deployment scenarios 25

5.2 Climate change benefits 30

5.3 Cost of carbon abatement 34

5.4 Air quality impact 35

6.0 ROADMAP TO DEPLOYMENT 37

6.1 Public HRSs 37

6.2 Depot-based private HRSs 40


1.0 Introduction

These Technical Appendices provide all data and assumptions, which have been used to generate graphic and tabular outputs, and related statements in the Main Report1. The sections below broadly correspond with those in the Main Report in which the related outputs and statements reside.

2.0 Hydrogen mobility in context2.1 UK Transport GHG emissions.

Figure 2-1: UK transport GHG emission by transport mode.

Cars, taxis and motorcycles

Buses and coaches

Shipping

Heavy goods vehicles

Rail

Light vans

Aviation

Mill

ion

Tonn

e C

O2 e

q

200

150

100

50

01990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015

1. https://hynet.co.uk/documents


Million tonnes CO2 equivalent

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

Cars, taxis and motorcycles 73 73 74 75 75 74 77 77 77

Heavy goods vehicles 20 19 19 20 20 20 20 21 20

Light vans 12 12 12 12 13 13 14 14 14

Buses and coaches 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 5

Rail 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Aviation 23 21 23 24 25 26 27 28 31

Shipping 17 16 17 16 17 18 18 19 20

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007



Light vans 14 14 14 15 15 15 16 16 17


Rail 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Aviation 33 36 35 35 36 39 41 42 42

Shipping 17 16 16 15 14 15 15 15 15

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016



Light vans 16 16 16 16 16 17 17 18 19


Rail 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Aviation 41 38 37 38 37 37 37 37 38

Shipping 19 18 16 16 15 14 15 14 15

Table 2-1: UK transport GHG emissions by transport mode.

Source: Department for Transport (2018), Greenhouse gas emissions by transport mode: United Kingdom, December 2018. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/energy-and-environment-data-tables-env#greenhouse-gas-emissions-env02


2.2 UK transport consumption.Figure 2-2: UK transport consumption by transport mode.

2000 2005 2010 2015

Cars and vans Freight Buses Rail Air

170%

150%

130%

110%

90%

70%


Car and vans (Bn Passenger Km)

Buses (Bn Passenger Km)

Rail (Bn Passenger Km)

Air (thousand movements)

Freight (Bn Tonne kilometres)

2000 639 47 47 1,927 236

2001 651 47 47 1,972 228

2002 673 47 48 1,967 236

2003 668 47 49 2,025 231

2004 673 41 50 2,139 232

2005 667 42 52 2,266 235

2006 673 40 55 2,314 226

2007 673 41 59 2,346 229

2008 666 43 61 2,295 216

2009 661 44 61 2,092 193

2010 645 45 65 1,972 200

2011 644 43 68 2,021 204

2012 647 42 70 1,994 200

2013 642 40 72 2,013 183

2014 654 40 75 2,043 177

2015 655 39 78 2,092 192

2016 666 34 80 2,178 196

2017 670 38 80 2,230 189

Sources: Department for Transport (2018), Passenger transport by mode from 1952, December 2018. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/tsgb01-modal-comparisons

Department for Transport (2018), Air traffic at UK airports, December 2018. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/aviation-statistics-data-tables-avi

Department for Transport (2018), Domestic freight transport, by mode, December 2018. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/tsgb04-freight#table-tsgb0401

Table 2-2: UK transport consumption by transport mode.


2.3 UK fuel efficiency.Figure 2-3: UK fuel efficiency by transport mode.

Cars and taxis Heavy goods vehicles Buses and coaches

140%

120%

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%2000 2005 2010 2015


Cars and taxis (billion miles)

Heavy goods vehicle (billion miles)

Buses and coaches (billion miles)

2000 233.7 17.5 3.2

2001 236.9 17.4 3.2

2002 242.7 17.6 3.2

2003 242.3 17.7 3.3

2004 245.0 18.2 3.2

2005 244.0 18.0 3.2

2006 246.9 18.0 3.3

2007 247.3 18.2 3.4

2008 245.4 17.8 3.1

2009 244.8 16.3 3.1

2010 239.8 16.4 3.1

2011 240.7 15.9 2.9

2012 240.3 15.5 2.7

2013 240.0 15.7 2.8

2014 245.0 16.1 2.8

2015 247.7 16.7 2.7

2016 251.6 16.8 2.5

2017 254.4 17.0 2.4

2018 255.0 17.1 2.3

Source: Department for Transport (2018), Road traffic (vehicle miles) by vehicle type, December 2018. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/tsgb07#table-tsgb0705-tra0104

Table 2-3: UK road traffic by vehicle type.


Cars and taxis (million tonnes)

Heavy goods vehicle (million tonnes)

Buses and coaches (million tonnes)

2000 24.4 6.3 1.6

2001 24.4 6.3 1.5

2002 24.9 6.4 1.5

2003 24.6 6.5 1.6

2004 24.8 6.6 1.5

2005 24.8 6.7 1.5

2006 24.7 6.7 1.5

2007 24.8 6.7 1.5

2008 24.1 6.3 1.4

2009 23.4 5.8 1.4

2010 22.7 5.9 1.4

2011 22.5 5.8 1.3

2012 22.4 5.8 1.2

2013 22.0 5.8 1.2

2014 22.1 6.0 1.2

2015 22.3 6.3 1.2

2016 22.8 6.4 1.1

Source: Department for Transport (2018), Petroleum consumption by transport mode and fuel type: United Kingdom, December 2018. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/energy-and-environment-data-tables-env

Table 2-4: UK fuel consumption by vehicle type.


Local authority

Authority code

Population 2016 ('000s)

CO2 eq. (kt) NOx (kt)1 PM10 (kt)1

Liverpool E08000012 488 574 1.65 0.033

Halton E06000006 127 268 0.77 0.015

Manchester E08000003 541 676 1.95 0.038

Bolton E08000001 284 475 1.37 0.027

Wigan E08000010 324 480 1.38 0.027

Crewe1 E06000049 72 227 0.65 0.013

Chester1 E06000050 118 333 0.96 0.019

Warrington E06000007 209 655 1.88 0.037

Preston E07000123 141 317 0.91 0.018

Total 2,303 4,006 11.52 0.228

1 Regional NOx emissions allocated in proportion to CO2 emissions.

Sources: BEIS (2018), UK local authority and regional carbon dioxide emissions national statistics: 2005-2016, 2018. https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/uk-local-authority-and-regional-carbon-dioxide-emissions-national-statistics-2005-2016

ONS (2018), Office for National Statistics 2016-based subnational population projections, May 2018. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/populationandmigration/populationprojections/datasets/localauthoritiesinenglandz1

National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (2018), Emission data in Pivot Table Viewer, May 2018. http://naei.beis.gov.uk/data/

Table 2-5: UK road traffic by vehicle type.2.4 Transport emissions in the North West.


Sources: Progressive Energy research and consultation with suppliers.

Figure 2-4: Energy storage densities for batteries and hydrogen.2.5 Energy storage density.

2.6 Renewable electricity supply.

Zoe Tesla Future 350 bar 500 bar 700 bar

2.50

2.00

1.50

1.00

0.50

0

kWh/

kg

Figure 2-5: Renewable electricity supply vs total power demand.

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

GW

h

Day

Nuclear electricity supplied Hydroelectric electricity supplied

Wind electricity supplied Solar electricity supplied

Biomass Electricity demand

Fuel cell Battery


Parameter Data Point

Population 70,629,653 people

Average number of people per household 2.3 people/household

Number of households 30,443,816 households

Hydroelectric installed capacity 431 MW

Solar installed capacity 12,999 MW

Wind installed capacity 39,621 MW

Nuclear installed capacity 7,498 MW

Oil installed capacity 2,502 MW

Biomass installed capacity 5,964 MW

CCGT installed capacity 30,671 MW

Interconnectors capacity 18,900 MW

Sources: BEIS (2019), Updated Energy and Emissions Projections 2018, April 2019. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/updated-energy-and-emissions-projections-2018

Table 2-6: Renewable electricity supply assumptions.


3.0 Availability and potential for cost reduction.

3.1 State of the art hydrogen vehicles.3.1.1 Buses.

3.1.2 Cars

Key Players Country Summary

Wrightbus UK Wrightbus is offering single deck and double deck FC buses. Prototypes of the latest model are undergoing testing and deliveries to customers are expected from 2019.

Alexander Dennis UK The UK’s largest bus builder has developed a prototype double deck FC bus in partnership with Arcola Energy and Warwick Manufacturing Group.

Van Hool Belgium Van Hool has delivered c.40 FC buses in Europe and the US and is building at least 50 more.

EvoBus Germany Daimler’s EvoBus has demonstrated >50 FC buses in previous projects and plans to offer FC range extender buses, with deliveries expected from 2021.

Solaris Poland Solaris delivered two 18m FC buses to Hamburg and 10 FC range extender trolleybuses to Riga. Now focusing on offering its 12m Urbino FC bus (from 2020).

VDL Netherlands VDL has demonstrated a small number of FC buses and is delivering four vehicles to a Dutch public transport operator as part of the 3Emotion project.

Caetanobus Portugal Toyota recently announced plans to supply its H2 technology to Caetanobus – prototypes are due in 2019, with scale up in production from the early 2020s.

Stakeholders Country Summary

UK SMEs

Riversimple UK Developing a new microcar concept for leased mobility, based on providing mobility to drivers commuting into towns and cities.

Arcola Energy UK Have a number of vehicle development programmes including a new fuel cell powered van (not yet demonstrated on the road).

Microcab UK Has spent a number of years developing a new microcar concept, which is being produced in small batch runs of vehicles.

Global OEMs

Toyota Japan Mirai went into production in 2014, c. 5,300 sold globally by Dec. 2017, mostly in N. America (2,900) and Japan (2,100). Plans to increase production to 30,000/yr from 2020 (up from c.3,000.yr). Lexus FC car due to be on sale by 2020.

Hyundai South Korea ix35 Fuel Cell went into production in 2013, hundreds deployed in selected markets globally. Nexo launched in 2018.

Honda Japan FCX Clarity produced in small numbers from 2008. Replaced by the Honda Clarity – deliveries since 2015/16.

Daimler Germany First F-Cell based on A Class (c.2002), followed by B-Class F-Cell (c.200 built). Latest model is the GLC F-Cell, being produced in limited numbers.

Table 3-1 Current Status of Hydrogen Bus Market.

Table 3-2: Current Status of Hydrogen Car Market.

Source: Element Energy consultation with suppliers.



3.1.3 Refuse collection vehicles

3.1.4 Long haul trucks

Key Players Summary

ULEMCo ULEMCo have converted refuse trucks to dual-fuel hydrogen diesel ICE solutions for Fife Council as part of the Levenmouth Community Energy Project.

The cost of engine retrofit is expected to be ~£40,000 if produced at scale.

The dual-fuel vehicles require refuelling at 350 bar, and perform dual-fuel injection of hydrogen and diesel into a combustion engine.

CO2 emissions reductions are up to 70% lower when operating in dual fuel mode than a comparable diesel vehicle.

E-Trucks E-Trucks have converted a standard refuse vehicle to run on a hydrogen fuel cell.

This is currently under trial in the European Life ‘N Grab Hy where the vehicle will be deployed in a number of European cities.

E-trucks are the main partners in a consortium which has recently secured permission to deploy 15 new fuel cell vehicles in cities across Europe.

These vehicles are at a pre-commercial scale and have a cost of >€650k (£580k).

Project/ Vehicle Supplier Country Technology Vehicle SizeNumber of trucks in operation

ULEMCo UKH2ICE (100%H2)

44t TBC

HVSystems UK Fuel cell 44t TBC

Coop FC truck demo / MAN Switzerland Fuel cell 34t 1

ASKO FC truck demo / Scania Norway Fuel cell 27t 4

H2-Share / VDLBelgium, Germany, France, The Netherlands

Fuel cell 28t 1

Hyundai Switzerland Fuel cell 18-34t 1,000 planned

Nikola Motor Company USA, Norway Fuel cell Class 8 2021 launch

Toyota USA Fuel cell 28t 1

Kenworth USA Fuel cell Class 8 1

Table 3-3: Current Status of Hydrogen RCV Market.

Table 3-4: Current Status of Hydrogen HGV Market.




3.1.5 Ferries

3.1.6 Trains

Project Key players Country Summary

HyDIME, Orkney Ferguson Marine Engineering Ltd, ULEMCo, HSSMI

UK Aims to design, integrate and trial an innovative hydrogen / diesel dual fuel conversion system for a 50kW diesel auxiliary power unit on a car ferry operating between Shapinsay and Kirkwall in Orkney. The project began in August 2018.

HySeas III, Orkney Ferguson Marine Engineering Ltd, McPhy, Ballard

UK July 2018: €12.6M project commissioned in Orkney, Scotland to build a car and passenger ferry using hydrogen and fuel cells. TRL 6. Began May 2018.

Zemships FCS Alsterwasser Germany Between 2008 and 2013 this vessel combined two 48 kW PEM fuel cells and a battery pack to transport up to 100 passengers across Lake Alster.

Project MARANDA Powercell, ABB Scandinavia Testing 2x85 kW fuel cells as APUs for a large research vessel (2017-2021).

Viking Cruises Norway Planning to operate an ocean-going cruise ship with liquid hydrogen fueled PEM cells (announced in 2017).

Powercell Sweden 3MW PEM system for FC propulsion or APU on ships.

Project Key players

Coradia iLint HFC train (Germany)

Alstom’s HFC commuter train has now entered into commercial service in Germany. Two pre-series trains are running, fuelled by a mobile refuelling station. Fleet operation (14 further trains) is scheduled to commence in 2021. Alstom has signed letters of intent for 60 hydrogen trains with several German states.

Alstom + Eversholt Refitting class 321s

Alstom is working with Eversholt Rail (British rolling stock leasing company) to refit electric commuter trains (class 321s) with fuel cells and hydrogen tanks. The conversions will take place at Alstom’s Widnes facility, and the first trains could be ready by 2021.

Peterbrook & University of Birmingham Refit of class 319

Peterbrook (British rolling stock leasing company) and the University of Birmingham’s Centre for Railway Research & Education are working together to demonstrate a hydrogen fuel cell train based on a refit of an electric commuter rain. The aim is that the train is ready for demonstration in mid-2019.

Vivarail UK train designers and manufacturers have developed a modular design based on adaptation of old London overground trains. Class 230 hydrogen tanks and fuel cell will be housed beneath the train so seats and interior passenger spaces are not compromised.

Table 3-5: Current Status of Hydrogen Ferry Market.

Table 3-6: Current Status of Hydrogen Rail Market.




3.1.7 Vans and distribution trucks.

3.1.8 Materials handling units

Key Players Country Summary

HVSystems UK HVSystems are developing the H2Van, the prototype will demo in the summer of 2019. It will come in range of sizes to cover applications from 3-8 tonnes. They will also produce 3 ranges of truck which will cover applications between 7.5 – 44 tonnes. These will have a range of up to 800 miles.

ULEMCo UK ULEMCO convert diesel vans to diesel-hydrogen hybrids which run on a dual-fuel system with hydrogen supplied directly to the internal combustion engine. In July 2018, ULEMCO delivered their first hydrogen dual-fuel van to Ocado (previous conversions had been under Revolve).

Hyundai South Korea H350 Fuel Cell Concept was revealed at the IAA in Hannover (2016), a FC van offering c.260 mile range. Not yet available for purchase.

Volkswagen Germany VW Crafter HyMotion is a concept vehicle based on the e-Crafter (launched by VW in 2016) that offers a range of c.300 miles (compared to c.100 miles for the electric only version). Not yet available for purchase.

StreetScooter Germany DHL-owned company building c.100 Work Light Fuel Cell vans by 2020.

Renault Trucks France Low hundreds of Range Extended Renault Kangoo e-vans have been deployed under funded projects across Europe, but only a few have been made available to the UK market to date.

In 2015, Renault developed hydrogen-electric hybrid 4.5 tonne Maxity Electric HDV with a range from c. 100 km to c. 300 km; first models are expected to be deployed in 2019-2020.

Project/key stakeholder

Description Status

Don Quichote Funded by the Don Quichote project, Colruyt Group warehouse are demonstrating 200 forklift vehicles, connecting 1.5MW wind turbine and 800kW PV with 130 kg/day capacity hydrogen HRS.

Due to finish 2018

HAWL Demonstration of 200 fuel cell powered forklifts and HRS. Due to finish 2017

HyLIFT HyLift DEMO/HyLift EUROPE: Demonstration of 200 hydrogen fuel cell forklifts and HRS across 10-20 sites.

Due to finish 2017

IKEA 20 hydrogen forklifts in operation in France, supplied by Air Liquide and PlugPower.

2014

Table 3-7: Current Status of Hydrogen Van / Distribution Truck Market.

Table 3-8: Current Status of Hydrogen Materials Handling Unit Market.




Figure 3-1: Projected future reduction in fuel cell system costs.

1,000 10,000 100,000

$250

$200

$150

$100

$50

$0

Fuel

Cel

l Sys

tem

Cos

t ($/

kWe

net)

Annual Production Rate (systems/year)

2016 Auto System

2017 Auto System

2020 Auto System

2025 Auto System

3.2 Projected future reduction in fuel cell system costs.

2016 System 2017 System 2020 System 2025 System

1,000 systems/year $203/kWe $180/kWe $175/kWe $155/kWe

10,000 systems/year $90/kWe $80/kWe $75/kWe $65/kWe

100,000 system/year $60/kWe $50/kWe $50/kWe $40/kWe

Source: Strategic Analysis Inc (2018), 2018 Cost Projections of PEM Fuel Cell Systems for Automobiles and Medium-Duty Vehicles, April 2018. https://www.energy.gov/sites/prod/files/2018/04/f51/fcto_webinarslides_2018_costs_pem_fc_autos_trucks_042518.pdf

Table 3-9: Future project reduction in fuel cell system costs.


Figure 4-1: Comparison of hydrogen distribution costs.

500 kg/day tube trailer

delivery

500 kg/day pipeline delivery

2,000 kg/day pipeline delivery

Opex

Capex

2,000 kg/day tube trailer

delivery

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

£/Kg

0.5

0.3

0.9

0.6

0.1

0.5

0.40.3

4.0 FCEVS as a cost competitive solution

4.1 Hydrogen distribution costs.

Assumption Units Pipeline distribution Tube trailer distribution

Tractor capex £ - 90,000

Tractor life Years - 8

Trailer capex £ - 250,000

Trailer life Years - 15

Trailers required # - 2 for 500 kg/day or 6 for 2,000 kg/day

Maintenance as % of capex % - 5

Overheads as % of driver costs % - 50

Number of full-time drivers required # - 1 for 500 kg/day or 3 for 2,000 kg/day

Driver salary £/annum - 40,000

Return on capital % 8 8

Distance to filling station km 1 32 (20 miles)

Dedicated pipeline cost £/km 1,000,000 -

Pipeline depreciation period Years 45 -

Table 4-1: Assumptions used for calculation of hydrogen distribution cost.



4.2 Hydrogen production costsFigure 4-2: Comparison of costs of production of transport hydrogen.

Electricity @14p/kWh

Electricity @5p/kWh

Production capex

Other production opex

Production cost (includes capex and opex)

Tube trailer delivery

Pipeline distribution cost

Purification cost

HRS Capex

HRS Fixed Opex

HRS Electricity

15

10

5

0

£/Kg

Onsite electrolysis

(grid electricity)

Offsite electrolysis (renewable electricity)

HyNet (grid gas,

CCS, pipeline)

1.4 1.00.1

0.90.9

0.9 0.40.9 0.9

11.4

7.4

3.61.6

6.4

2.8

Assumption Units Onsite Electrolysis Offsite Electrolysis1 HyNet (ATR)

Capex (installed) £ 8,500,000 23,670,000 -

Demand per station Kg/day 2,000 2,000 2,000

Utilisation % 88 75

Electrolyser stack life Hours 52,000 52,000 -

Electrolyser efficiency kWh/kg 53 53 -

Cost of hydrogen produced £/kg - - £1.6

Distribution cost £/kg - 0.9 -

Electricity price £/kWh 0.14 0.05 0.14

Gas price £/kWh n/a n/a 0.03

H2 purification cost £/kg - - 0.42

HRS capex £5,400,000 for a 2t/day station2

HRS fixed opex £/year 104,000 104,000 104,000

HRS Lifetime Years 15 15 15

Notes:1. Production capacity serving more than just one refuelling station.2. Could be up to £10 million (dependent on dispensing pressure and the number of dispensers and compressors

required for redundancy).

Table 4-2: Assumptions used for calculation of hydrogen production cost.



4.3 Total cost of ownership.4.3.1 Car.

Figure 4-3: Car total cost of ownership.

Assumption Units Diesel BEV (future) FCEV (future)

Vehicle capex £ 30,000 40,000 35,000

Annual maintenance costs £ 1,250 500 500

Diesel consumption L/100km 5.2 - -

Hydrogen consumption kg/100 km - - 1

Vehicle fuel consumption kWh/100km 70 18 33

Hydrogen cost £/kg - - 3.6

Diesel cost £/L 1.1 - -

Electricity cost £/kWh - 0.18 -

Vehicle lifetime Years 4 4 4

Residual value % of capex 30% 30% 30%

Annual mileage km 30,000 30,000 30,000

Table 4-2: Assumptions used for calculation of car total cost of ownership.

Diesel Battery electric - Future Fuel cell - Future

0.40

0.35

0.30

0.25

0.20

0.15

0.10

0.05

0.00

£/km

Hydrogen

Electricity

Fuel duty

Diesel

Maintenance

Vehicle capex

0.31 0.33 0.30

0.210.28 0.25

0.04

0.020.020.03

0.030.040.03



4.3.2 Bus.

Figure 4-4: Bus total cost of ownership.

Assumption Units Diesel bus BEV bus (future) FCEV bus (future)

Vehicle capex £/bus 290,000 350,000 350,000

Vehicle maintenance £/year.bus 16,000 12,000 12,000

Hydrogen consumption kg/100km - - 8

Diesel consumption l/100km 37.5 - -

Energy consumption kWh/100km 375 160 266

Hydrogen price £/kg - - 3.6

Diesel price £/l 1 - -

Electricity price £/kWh - 0.14 -


Vehicle lifetime years 14 14 14

Table 4-4: Assumptions used for calculation of bus cost of ownership.

Diesel BEV - Future FCEV - Future

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

£/km

1.16 1.06 1.13

0.54 0.65 0.65

0.250.18 0.18

0.16

0.220.22 0.29

Hydrogen

Electricity

Fuel duty

Diesel

Maintenance

Vehicle capex



4.3.3 25 Tonne HGV

Figure 4 5: HGV total cost of ownership.

Assumption Units Diesel BEV (future) FCEV (future)

Vehicle capex £ 72,000 100,000 150,000

Annual maintenance costs £ 2,750 1,830 2,000

Diesel consumption L/100km 21.1 - -

Hydrogen consumption Kg/100km - - 3.3

Vehicle energy consumption

kWh/100km 211 71 110

Hydrogen cost £/kg - - 3.6

Diesel cost £/L 1 - -

Electricity cost £/kWh - 0.14 -

Vehicle lifetime Years 7 7 7


Table 4-5: Assumptions behind calculation of 25t HGV cost of ownership.

Hydrogen

Electricity

Fuel duty

Diesel

Maintenance

Vehicle capex

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.0

£/km

Diesel BEV - Future FCEV - Potential

0.420.36 0.38

0.170.24 0.24

0.03

0.02 0.030.09

0.120.10 0.12



5.0 Meeting climate and clean air goals.

5.1 Deployment scenarios.

Figure 5-1: Estimates of Hydrogen demand from FCEVs in the North West in 2030.

Cars

Vans

Buses

Rigid HGVs

Articulated HGVs

Trains

0.5

0.10.1

(Potential demand from maritime applications excluded).

1 TWh per annum = 80 tonnes H2 per day

Low Medium High

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

TWh/

annu

m

0.2

0.30.4

0.2

0.91.1

0.32.4

0.40.7

Figure 5-2: Estimates of FCEV deployment in the North West in 2030.

Vehicles deployed

% of total vehicle stock

16,000

15,500

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

50

45

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

Num

ber o

f Hyd

roge

n ve

hicl

es d

eplo

yed

% o

f tot

al v

ehic

le s

tock

Car Vans Buses Rigid HGVs

Articulated HGVs

Trains

15,4072,570

787

232392

990%

8%9%

3%0%1%

23%


Sources: Fleet data from Element Energy consultation with bus operators in the region.

Department for Transport (2019), Motor vehicle traffic (vehicle miles) by local authority in GB, Table TRA8901, April 2019 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/all-vehicles-veh01

Department for Transport (2019), Licensed vehicles at the end of the quarter by body type and region, Table VEH0104, April 2019 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/all-vehicles-veh01

Department for Transport (2019), Cars registered for the first time by region, Table VEH0254, April 2019 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/veh02-licensed-cars

Department for Transport (2019), Licensed heavy goods vehicles by region: Great Britain and United Kingdom, Table VEH0504, April 2019 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistical-data-sets/veh05-licensed-heavy-goods-vehicles

Rail delivery group (2018), Long Term Passenger Rolling Stock Strategy for the Rail Industry, March 2018 https://www.raildeliverygroup.com/files/Publications/2018-03_long_term_passenger_rolling_stock_strategy_6th_ed.pdf

Assumptions Cars Vans Buses Rigid trucks

Articulated trucks

Trains

Total baseline petrol/diesel fleet size

2,751,000 394,000 2,500 34,100 15,200 440

Table 5-1: Estimated baseline fleet size in the HyNet region.


5.1.1 Low uptake scenario.

Sales of hydrogen vehicles

Units 2020 2025 2030

Cars Sales per year 28 825 7,703

Vans Sales per year - 59 590

Buses % of total sales per year 3% 10% 15%

Rigid trucks % of total sales per year 0% 1% 3%

Articulated trucks % of total sales per year 0% 1% 1%

Trains % of total sales per year 2% 2% 2%


2020 2025 2030 2050

Cars 28 825 7,703 40,000

Vans - 59 590 2,500

Buses 6 68 187 750

Rigid trucks 10 167 523 5,000

Articulated trucks - 31 108 1,000

Trains 3 31 61 200

Table 5-2: Assumptions for sales of hydrogen vehicles in the HyNet region.

Table 5-3: Stock of hydrogen vehicles in the HyNet region.




5.1.2 Medium uptake scenario.


Units 2020 2025 2030

Cars Sales per year 55 1,651 15,407

Vans Sales per year 39 295 787






2020 2025 2030 2035

Cars 55 1,651 15,407 50,000

Vans 39 295 787 4,000

Buses 6 97 232 1,000

Rigid trucks 24 761 2,570 10,000

Articulated trucks - 61 392 2,000

Trains 4 39 99 500






5.1.3 High uptake scenario.


Units 2020 2025 2030

Cars Sales per year 110 3,301 27,512

Vans Sales per year 59 590 1,968






2020 2025 2030 2050

Cars 110 3,301 27,512 120,000

Vans 59 590 1,968 7,000

Buses 6 126 364 1,500

Rigid trucks 37 1,768 6,389 25,000

Articulated trucks - 313 1,359 5,000

Trains 9 69 182 400






5.2 Climate change benefits.5.2.1 Emissions factors for different fuels.

5.2.2 Cars.

Assumption Units Value

Long-run marginal electricity emissions factor in 2019 (commercial/public sector) kg CO2e/kWh 0.3

Long-run marginal electricity emissions factor in 2030 (commercial/public sector) kg CO2e/kWh 0.1

Diesel tank-to-wheel emissions factor kg CO2e/L 2.6

Diesel well-to-tank emissions factor kg CO2e/L 0.7

Hydrogen production emissions (from ATR, including CCS) kg CO2e/kg H2 3.7


Diesel car fuel consumption L/100km 5.2

Hydrogen car fuel consumption kg/100 km 1.0

Electric car fuel consumption kWh/100km 18.0

Table 5-8: Assumptions used to calculate GHG emissions of different fuels.

5.2.3 Figure 5-3: Estimated well-to-wheel emissions from different types of cars.

Table 5-9: Assumptions behind calculation of greenhouse gas emissions benefits of hydrogen cars.

Sources: HM Treasury (2019), Valuation of Energy Use and Greenhouse Gas, April 2019. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/valuation-of-energy-use-and-greenhouse-gas-emissions-for-appraisal

BEIS (2018), Conversion factors 2018 - Full set (for advanced users), July 2018. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/greenhouse-gas-reporting-conversion-factors-2018

Cadent (2018), Hynet Project Report, 2018. https://hynet.co.uk/documents/

Powertrain

Diesel

Battery electric (current grid electricity)

Battery electric (potential ‘future’ grid electricity)

FCEV (HyNet hydrogen)

Emissions from different types of cars

171

54 3723

200

150

100

50

0

gCO

2 e/k

m



5.2.4 Buses.

5.2.5 Trucks.


Diesel bus fuel consumption L/100km 37.5

Hydrogen bus fuel consumption kg/100 km 8

Electric bus fuel consumption kWh/100km 160


Diesel truck fuel consumption L/100km 21

Hydrogen truck fuel consumption kg/100 km 3.3

Electric truck consumption kWh/100km 71

Figure 5-4: Estimated well-to-wheel emissions from different types of buses.

Figure 5-5: Estimated well-to-wheel emissions from different types of trucks.

Table 5-10: Assumptions behind calculation of greenhouse gas emissions benefits of hydrogen buses.

Table 5-11: Assumptions behind calculation of GHG emissions benefits of hydrogen trucks.

Powertrain

Diesel


Battery electric (‘future’ grid electricity)


Powertrain

Diesel


Battery electric (‘future’ grid electricity)


gCO

2 e/k

m

Emissions from different types of buses

1,4001,2001,000

800600400200

0

1,215

483 296202

Emissions from different types of trucks

694

214 12090

200

150

100

50

0

gCO

2 e/k

m




5.2.6 Trains.


Diesel train fuel consumption L/100km 120

Hydrogen train fuel consumption kg/100 km 28

Figure 5-6: Estimated well-to-wheel emissions from different types of trains.

Table 5-12: Assumptions behind calculation of greenhouse gas emissions benefits of hydrogen trains.

Powertrain

Diesel


Emissions from different types of trains

3,900

1,000

4,000

3,000

2,000

1,000

0

gCO

2 e/k

m

5.2.7 Total climate change benefit.Figure 5-7: Potential total CO2 reduction from FCEVs in North West (medium scenario).


Cars

Vans

Buses

Rigid HGVs

Articulated HGVs

Trains

7

100

346

2020 2025 2030

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

kt C

O2 e

q/ye

ar



Articulated trucks

Trains

Fuel consumption (kWh/km) 0.33 0.67 2.7 2.4 2.6 10.0

Fuel consumption (kg/km) 0.01 0.02 0.08 0.07 0.08 0.3

Average annual mileage per vehicle – approx. (km)

30,000 30,000 65,000 80,000 120,000 360,000

Average daily hydrogen demand per vehicle (kg H2/day)

1 2 13 11 24 300

Total baseline petrol/diesel fleet size 2,751,000 394,000 2,500 34,100 15,200 440

Table 5-13: Assumptions informing calculation of hydrogen demand and emissions benefits.



Annual emissions savings in 2030 (tonnes CO2eq) Estimated baseline annual emissions (tonnes CO2eq)

Low Medium High Diesel fleet

Cars 30,967 61,935 110,598 14,113,621

Vans 4,747 6,330 15,824 4,038,734

Buses 11,170 13,859 21,744 197,438

Rigid trucks 24,016 118,014 293,383 1,895,091

Articulated trucks 8,059 29,251 101,409 1,371,725

Trains 72,000 116,792 214,709 624,254

Total 150,923 346,181 757,666 22,240,863

Table 5-14: Estimated annual emissions savings under different hydrogen vehicle uptake scenarios in 2030.


5.3 Cost of carbon abatement.Figure 5-8: Cost of carbon abatement for BEV and FCEVs.

450

400

350

300

250

200

150

100

50

0

£/to

nne

CO

2 eq

abat

ed

BEV Now

BEV Future

Car

FCEV Future

BEV Now

BEV Future

Bus

FCEV Future

BEV Now

BEV Future

Truck

FCEV Future

Source: Based on data presented in Sections 4.3 and 5.2.

Car

BEV Now BEV Future FCEV Future

Cost carbon abatement (£/tonne CO2eq) 427 338 149

Addition cost versus diesel (£/km) 0.05 0.05 0.02

CO2 savings versus diesel (gCO2eq/km) 117 148 134

Bus




CO2 savings versus diesel (gCO2eq/km) 732 1,013 919

Truck




CO2 savings versus diesel (gCO2eq/km) 480 604 574

Table 5-15: Assumptions relating to cost of carbon abatement.


5.4 Air quality impact.Figure 5-9: Potential total NOx reduction from FCEVs in North West (medium scenario).

Cars

Vans

Buses

Rigid HGVs

Articulated HGVs

Trains2020 2025 2030

3,500

3,000

2,500

2,000

1,500

1,000

500

0

t NO

x/ye

ar

70

1,000

3,000


Articulated trucks

Trains

Diesel emissions (g NOX/km) 0.18 0.28 6.0 36.4

Basis for assumption Euro 5 limit

Euro 5 limit

Conservative estimate assuming a mix of vehicle ages and speeds in the overall fleet (see emissions functions below)

Based on scale-up of assumed bus and truck emissions factors in line with relative fuel demand per km

Table 5-16: Diesel emissions factors applied for high-level estimation of emissions benefits.

Sources: Dieselnet (2019), EU: Cars and Light Trucks, April 2019. https://www.dieselnet.com/standards/eu/ld.php

National Atmospheric Emissions Inventory (2018), Fleet Weighted Road Transport Emission Factor 2016, March 2018. http://naei.beis.gov.uk/data/ef-transport


Emissions savings (tonnes NOx/year)

2020 2025 2030

Cars 0 9 83

Vans 0 2 7

Buses 2 38 90

Rigid HGVs 12 365 1,234

Articulated HGVs - 44 282

Trains 52 511 1,296

Emissions savings (% saving compared to diesel baseline)

2020 2025 2030

Cars 0.00% 0.06% 0.56%

Vans 0.01% 0.08% 0.20%

Buses 0.24% 3.88% 9.28%

Rigid HGVs 0.07% 2.23% 7.53%

Articulated HGVs 0.00% 0.40% 2.58%

Trains 0.91% 8.86% 22.50%

Total 0.13% 1.86% 5.73%

Table 5-17: Estimated annual NOx emissions savings vs a diesel baseline fleet in the medium uptake scenario.



Table 6-1: Potential demand for public hydrogen refuelling stations.

6.0 Roadmap to deployment

6.1 Public HRSs

Demand scenario Number of vehicles

Hydrogen demand (tonnes/day)

Estimated number of public hydrogen stations required

Scenario Year Cars & vans

Long haul trucks1

Cars & vans

Long haul trucks1

Number of public refuelling stations

Approx. demand per refuelling station

Low hydrogen demand

2025 900 30 0.9 0.7 8 (2 of which can refuel trucks)

0.2 tonnes/day

2030 8,300 100 8.9 2.4 15 (3 of which can refuel trucks)

0.8 tonnes/day

2050 42,000 1,000 45.0 24.0 35 (5 of which can refuel trucks)

2.0 tonnes/day

High hydrogen demand

2025 3,900 300 4.5 7.4 15 (4 of which can refuel trucks)

0.8 tonnes/day


1.5 tonnes/day


5.0 tonnes/day

Note: 1.The number of long-haul trucks is based on the number of articulated trucks in a given deployment scenario.

Source: Element Energy analysis.

Figure 6-1: Long haul HGVs based in depots in postcode sectors near the proposed HyNet pipeline.

Total number of HGVs based on depots within postcode sector Sectors shown within blue are outside the HyNet area, or have no HGV depots

HyNet pipeline schematic

Key truck depots close to the pipeline

1 - 100

100 - 275

275 - 750

750 - 1250

1250 - 2772

Legend

Source: Driver Vehicle and Standards Agency (2019), Vehicle Operator Licensing Database, April 2019. https://www.vehicle-operator-licensing.service.gov.uk/search/find-lorry-bus-operators/


Operating centre Company Vehicles Trailers Industry Experience of alternative fuels?

Co-op Distribution Centre, St Helens

Wincanton Group 267 230 Logistics Yes (gas)

Omega South, Warrington Asda Stores 218 441 Supermarket Yes (gas)

Stretton Green Distribution Centre, Warrington

Eddie Stobart 200 200 Logistics Yes (gas)

Warrington Distribution Centre

Royal Mail Group 186 197 Logistics Yes (electric vans)

Widnes Intermodal Rail Depot

Eddie Stobart 150 220 Logistics Yes (gas)

Stobart Ports, Widnes Eddie Stobart 150 175 Logistics Yes (gas)

Haydock Industrial Estate, St Helens

Sainsburys Supermarkets

140 200 Supermarket Yes (gas, liquid nitrogen)

Liverpool International Business Park

B & M Retail 125 250 Supermarket

Middlewich B & M Retail 125 180 Supermarket

Ocean Estates, Trafford Park, Manchester

Wincanton Group 121 129 Logistics Yes (gas)

Ocean Estates, Trafford Park, Manchester

Kuehne + Nagel 121 129 Logistics Yes (smaller electric vehicles, liquid nitrogen)

Table6-2: Operating centres with long-haul HGVs.



Figure 6-2: Potential locations for public HRS in 2025.

Figure 6-3: Public refuelling stations: potential locations in 2030-2050.

Truck depots

Existing petrol station


Proposed HRS locations - low uptake scenario

Additional proposed HRS locations - high uptake scenario

Truck depots

Existing petrol station


Proposed HRS locations - low uptake scenario

Legend

Legend



Low scenario: 900 cars and vans, 30 trucks High scenario: 2,900 cars and vans, 300 trucks

2030: 15-30 stations, up to 5 for trucksLow scenario: 8,300 cars and vans, 100 trucks High scenario: 29,500 cars and vans, 1,300 trucks

2050: 35-50 stations, up to 6 for trucksLow scenario: 42,000 cars and vans, 1,000 trucks High scenario: 127,000 cars and vans, 5,300 trucks


Table 6-3: Potential demand for in-depot hydrogen refuelling stations.

Demand scenario

Number of vehicles Total hydrogen demand (tonnes/day)

Estimated number of in-depot hydrogen stations required

Scenario Year Buses Back-to-base trucks1

Trains Buses Back-to-base trucks1

Trains Number of in-depot refuelling stations

Approx. demand per refuelling station

Low hydrogen demand

2025 70 170 30 0.9 1.9 4.7 6-8 (+1 train depot)

0.5 tonnes/day

2030 190 500 60 2.4 5.7 9.2 15-20 (+2 train depots)

0.5 tonnes/day

2050 750 5,000 200 9.8 55.0 30.0 50-60 (+3 train depots)

1.3 tonnes/day

High hydrogen demand

2025 130 1,800 70 1.6 20.0 10.4 30-40 (+2 train depots)

0.7 tonnes/day

2030 360 6,400 180 4.7 70.3 27.3 60-100 (+3 train depots)

1.0 tonnes/day

2050 1,500 25,000 400 20.0 275.0 60.0 200+ (+4 train depots)

1.5 tonnes/day

Note: 1.The number of back-to-base trucks is based on the number of rigid trucks in a given deployment scenario.


6.2 Depot-based private HRSs.

Figure 6-4: Numbers of licensed HGVs based in depots in postcode sectors near the proposed HyNet pipeline.



Key back-to-back truck depots close to the pipeline

1 - 100

100 - 275

275 - 750

750 - 1250

1250 - 2772

Legend



Figure 6-5: Numbers of buses and coaches based in depots in postcode sectors near the proposed HyNet pipeline.



Large bus depots close to the pipeline

1 - 100

100 - 275

275 - 750

750 - 1250

1250 - 2772

Legend

Operating centre Company Vehicles Trailers Industry Experience of alternative fuels?

Ellesmere Port DHL Supply Chain 60 60 Distribution Yes (gas)

Boulevard Industry Park, Liverpool

DHL Supply Chain 40 50 Distribution

Speke, Halewood DHL Supply Chain 40 60 Distribution

Speke, Halewood DHL Supply Chain 40 55 Distribution

Trafford Park DHL Supply Chain 35 62 Distribution

Carrington DHL Supply Chain 35 35 Distribution

Northbank Industrial Estate

DPDGroup UK 60 60 Distribution Yes (electric vans)

Trafford Park Kuehne + Nagel 50 25 Distribution Yes (smaller electric vehicles, liquid nitrogen)

Monsall Road, Manchester

Kuehne + Nagel 46 42 Distribution

Speke TNT UK 60 30 Distribution Yes (electric vehicles)Trafford Park TNT UK 40 25 Distribution

Table 6-4: Operating centres with back-to-base HGVs.


Figure 6-6: Potential train refuelling locations near the proposed HyNet pipeline.

Figure 6-7: ‘In-depot’ refuelling hotspots near the proposed HyNet pipeline.

Northern rail depots (diesel refuelling)

Alstom train refuelling station

Birkenhead - North Wales trainline

Potential HyNet Pipeline Route

Legend

Northern rail depots

Alstom train refuelling station

Bus depots with >100 vehicles

Back-to-base HGV depots


Cluster of potential demand

Legend


hynet.co.uk/transport

Cadent Gas Ltd, Ashbrook Court, Central Blvd, Coventry, CV7 8PEwww.cadentgas.com

Progressive Energy LtdSwan House, Bonds Mill, Stonehouse GL10 3RF+44 (0)1453 822444www.progressive-energy.com

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