hydropower flashpoints and water security challenges in central asia bakhtiyor mukhammadiev us...
TRANSCRIPT
Hydropower Flashpoints and Water Security Challenges
in Central Asia
Bakhtiyor MukhammadievUS Embassy Tashkent
These slides are personal opinion only. They do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the U.S. Government.
Central Asian ESTH News
Tajikistan: Water Is Weapon In Uzbek Electricity Talks01/21/2009
Battle Lines Drawn In Central Asian Water Dispute04/19/2006
Thaw in Tajik-Uzbek Relations03/12/2009
Tajikistan Warns Of Possible Water Shortage Crisis01/21/2009
Tajikistan Offended By Russian Leader's Remarks On Water Use In Region02/11/2008
Uzbekistan Will Halve Energy To Tajikistan02/12/2010
Regional Politics Get In Way of Bringing Power to the People03/03/2007 World Bank Group
Statement on Water-Energy in Central Asia03/11/2010
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to Build Hydro Power Station, DespiteUzbekistan’s Objection04/12/2009
Tajik President Asks UN to Help Solve Central Asia’s Water Problem04/15/2007
Examination of Allies: What Side of the Fence will Moscow Take in the Water Dispute?04/22/2006
The Amu-Darya River Basin
The Syr-Darya River Basin
Total water resources: 116 km3/year
50%
25%
2%
1%
10%
5% / 12%
52%
20%
10%
11%5%
Central Asia StatisticsCountries Population
(106)(2009)
GDP(109 USD)
(2009)
Dependence on trans-boundary
waters(%)
Energy Security
(%)
Food Security
(%)(2010)
ODA(106 USD)
(2006)
Military Spending(109 USD)
(2007)
Kyrgyzstan 5.3 4.6 0 73 57 311 0.17
Tajikistan 7.0 5.0 0 69 31 240 0.53
Upstream 12.3 9.6 0 71 44 551 0.7
Kazakhstan 15.9 115 42 100 100 172 1.6
Turkmenistan 5.1 20 94 100 50 26 1.1
Uzbekistan 27.8 32 77 100 55 149 1.6
Downstream 48.8 139 71 100 65 347 4.3
Central Asia 61.1 167 18 86 58.6 898 5.0
New dimensions of regional security in Central Asia
Environ-mental Securit
y
Food Securit
y
Energy Securit
y
90% and 95% of energy in
Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan come
from hydro
Environmental refugees
(Environment and Security
Initiative)
Food security/Water
scarcity/Access to Water/Pro-
poor Irrigation
Water Security
Water security is a common feature
Understanding Central Asia
HISTORY LEGACY RELIGION
POLITICS SECURITY GEOPOLITICSECONOMICS
NATION-BUILDING
Understanding Water in Central Asia
Resource sovereignty Crumbling infrastructure Planned Projects
Access to water Environmental security Drought & floods Rivalry
Water for Afghanistan Climate change Declaratory regionalismEnergy security
Aral Sea (N/A)
Natural losses
(6.5 km3=5%)
Total withdrawals
(120 km3=93%)
Irrigation, 90%
Industry, 5.4%
Drinking, 3.2%
Env. flow, 1.4%
Amu-Darya and Syr-Darya Rivers
(116 km3)Groundwater
(13 km3)
Total(129 km3=100%)
Return water33 km3=29%
Discharged into depressions
(10 km3=30%)
Back to rivers(18 km3=55%)Reused water
(5 km3=15%)
Aral Sea Basin Water Balance
Central Asian Water Related Agreements
BWO Syr-Darya
UDC Energy
Irrigation-energy trade-offs
Agreement on Use of Water and Energy Resources of Syr-Darya Basin
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan
04/17/1998
Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
TM Ministry of Water, UZ Ministry of Ag and Water
50/50 division of Amu-Darya flow at Kerki river post
Agreement on Cooperation in Water Management Issues
Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan
01/16/1996
Charjev, Turkmenistan
ICAS/IFASSustainable development; obligation to cooperate
Agreement on Joint Activities to Address the Aral Sea Issues
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan
03/26/1993
Kyzylorda,
Kazakhstan
ICWC; BWO Amu-Darya; BWO Syr-Darya
Institutions
Soviet time water allocation rules prevail; joint decision making; not to cause harm
Governing Rules
Agreement on Cooperation in Management of Use and Protection of Water Resources of Interstate Sources
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan
02/18/1992
Almaty, Kazakhstan
TitlePartiesDate/place
Central Asian Regional Institutions
HEADS OF STATE COUNCIL
International Fund to Save the Aral Sea (IFAS) President
EC IFAS Branchin Nukus,
Uzbekistan
EC IFAS Branchin Kyzylorda, Kazakhstan
EC IFAS Branchin Dashauz,
Turkmenistan
Interstate Commission
for Water Coordination
Scientific-Information Center
(Tashkent)
BWO Syr-Darya(Tashkent)
BWO Amu-Darya(Urgench)
Interstate Commission for
Sustainable Development
Secretariat Scientific Information
Center(Ashgabat)
IFAS Board of Directors
IFAS Executive Committee
(Almaty)
TAJIKISTAN
AFGHANISTAN
UZBEKISTANNUREK Status: Under construction
Purpose: Hydropower, irrigationVolume: 13 km3Capacity: 3600 MWCost: 2.2-5 Billion USDStatus: Under construction
Purpose: HydropowerDuration: 2005-2010Capacity: 670+220 MWCost: 650 and 182 Million USD
SANGTUDA 1 & 2
Status: ProposedPurpose: Hydropower, irrigationVolume: 17.6 km3Capacity: 4000 MWCost: 3.2 Billion USD
DASHTIJUM
ROGHUN
1
5
4
3
2
6
7
8
910
Baipaza
Sangtuda-1
Sangtuda-2
Golovnaya
Perepadnaya
Tsentralnaya
Shurob
ROGHUN
DASHTIJUM
TURKMENISTAN
Kambarata I&II Projects in KG
Purpose: HydropowerVolume: 4.7 km3
Duration: 2005-2010Capacity: 190+360 MWCost: 2.2 Billion USD
Status: Under construction
Unilateral developmentsSyr-Darya Basin: Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan,
Kazakhstan
Fergana Reservoirs in UZ
Purpose: Re-regulation of upstream winter releasesVolume: 2.5 km3
Duration: 2004-20--Cost: N/A
Status: Under construction
Koksaray Reservoir in KZ
Purpose: Re-regulation of upstream winter releasesVolume: 3 km3
Duration: 2007-2010Cost: 200 Million USD
Status: Completed
Unilateral developmentsGolden Century Lake of Turkmenistan
Karakum Canal
Golden Century Canal
Uzbekistan
Afghanistan
Iran
Turkmenistan
Amudarya River
Karashor Depression:Golden Century Lake site
Purpose: Agricultural developmentDuration: 2002-2022Volume: 132 km3
Cost: 9 Billion USD
Status: Under construction
STATUS-QUO According to the 1946 agreement between the
Soviet Union and Afghanistan, Afghanistan is entitled to use up to 9 km3/yr from the River Pyanj, a tributary of the Amu-Darya. Afghanistan currently uses about 2 km3/yr.
[possible] Unilateral Development
Amu-Darya River Basin: Afghanistan
POTENTIAL IMPACT Full use of Afghanistan’s quota for water use from
the Pyanj (9 km3/yr), fixed by the 1946 agreement, could radically change the water flow along the Pyanj and would have a significant impact on the downstream flow regime of the Amu-Darya.
PROPOSED PROJECTS Proposed 15% expansion of irrigated lands in the
northern Afghanistan region, which contribute to the Amudarya flow, may require an increase of withdrawals by 6 km3/yr.
Riparian positions: TAJIKISTAN “…Tajikistan has the right to develop hydropower potential along
its domestic waterways. These include the Vakhsh River…”
President of Tajikistan Mr. Emomali Rakhmon, UN MDG Summit, 09/20/2010, New York
“…The construction of Roghun Hydropower Plant on the Vakhsh River will not harm downstream interests…the Vakhsh River is responsible for only a small part of Amu-Darya flow, upstream from the existing Nurek dam, so it cannot hold back water…”
“…Tajikistan worried about inefficiencies in water use in downstream countries. Total surface area of reservoirs in downstream countries is more than the Aral Sea, and more are being constructed…”
“…Largest share of Central Asian water originates in Tajikistan…Tajikistan has a vested interest in maintaining adequate water. Tajikistan is concerned about global warming and glacial melt, which affects water supply…”
Address by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Tajikistan Hamrokhon Zarifi at the 17th OSCE Ministerial Council Meeting, Athens, 12/01/2009
Address by the President Emomali Rakhmon at the Roghun HPP site, 10/29/2009
Remarks of President Emomali Rakhmon at the IFAS Heads of State Summit, Almaty, 04/28/2009
Address by the President Emomali Rakhmon at the Roghun HPP site, 10/29/2009
Riparian positions: KYRGYZSTAN
“…Kyrgyzstan is interested in rational utilization of water resources, in raising its investment potential [for hydropower projects], environmental safety and development of alternative energy sources, implementation of regional hydropower projects under the CASAREM, and primarily in the construction of transmission lines Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan…”
“…in such a difficult time for Kyrgyzstan, a launching of the first hydro-generator of Kambarata HPP-1 is a historic event for the country. Construction and launch of this HPP demonstrates the power of our country, and we do not intend to abandon the constructions of Kambarata-2 and Kambarata-1…We will be able to live well in both winter and summer, and are increasing our [electricity] export potential…Of course, we will cooperate on this plan with Uzbekistan…”
Remarks of Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kyrgyz Republic Mr. Ruslan Kazakbaev, UN MDG Summit, 09/27/2010, New York
Remarks of President Ms. Roza Otunbayeva at the launching ceremony of the first aggregate of the Kambarata-2 HPP, 08/30/2010
Kyrgyzstan's acting President Roza Otunbayeva presses a symbolic red button to start the first unit
of hydroelectric power station Kambarata-2, 08/30/2010
Riparian positions: UZBEKISTAN “…New hydropower projects in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan violate
existing agreements and are against to international law. Both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan must receive prior-consent of downstream countries…”
“…In accordance with international customary law, upstream countries are under obligation not to cause significant harm and to prevent, control and reduce transboundary impacts…”
“… …The resolution of [water/energy] problems is the exclusive prerogative of the countries in the region… the interferences of the third parties/countries in water/energy problems of Central Asia is unacceptable…”
“…Upstream countries can save energy through electricity loss reduction programs...[or] consider building smaller hydropower plants…”
“…Uzbekistan stands firm on the need for binding international examination of all hydropower projects on transboundary rivers…such examinations must be carried out under the aegis of UN and include independent authoritative experts…”
President of Uzbekistan Mr. Islam Karimov, UN MDG Summit, 09/20/2010, New York
Press Release of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, 02/23/2008
Press Release of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, 04/14/2009
Address by President Islam Karimov to the participants of the
International Aral Sea Conference, Tashkent, 04/11/2008
Press Release of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, 04/14/2009
Press Release of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, 04/24/2009
Riparian positions: KAZAKHSTAN
“…Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, being countries downstream of the Syr Darya and Amu Darya rivers, need guarantees [offered by international feasibility studies]…It is a question of water supply to millions of people…Until the results of [international] expert testing are available, no dam should be built…”
“…"Over time, this [water] problem may turn out very large (and) it is necessary to secure drinking water for the entire Central Asian region…Why not recall a project to divert the flow of Siberian rivers into Central Asia?…”
“…it is important for Kazakhstan to address the issues of joint management and rational use of transboundary water resources of the [Central Asian] region through co-financing of regional projects of water management…”
Remarks of President Nazarbayev, Press Briefing with President Karimov, Tashkent, Uzbekistan, 03/18/2010
Remarks of President Nazarbayev, Press Briefing with President Medvedev, Ust-Kamenogorsk, Kazakhstan, 09/08/2010
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstanwww.mfa.kz
President of Kazakhstan Mr. Nursultan Nazarbayev,
United Nations
Riparian positions: TURKMENISTAN “…we must resolve these issues exclusively based on
the universally accepted norms and principles of international law taking into account the interests of all States in the region and with participation of international organizations…”
“…the need for mandatory and transparent independent international technical, economic and environmental impact assessment of hydropower projects on rivers at their early design stages…”
“… Turkmenistan stands ready to supply neighbors with natural gas, LNG, and electricity. Once we solve the problem of energy, we can easterly solve the problem of water…”
“…Turkmenistan urges the countries in the region - Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan to make a joint compensation to help [Tajikistan] resolve its energy problems, in exchange for a commitment to maintain the current level of water [Tajikistan] draws from cross-border rivers...”
President of Turkmenistan Mr. Gurbanguly Berdymuhamedov,
UN MDG Summit, 09/20/2010, New York
Remarks of President Berdymuhamedov, IFAS Heads of State Summit, 04/28/2009
Remarks of President Berdymuhamedov, IFAS Heads of State Summit, 04/28/2009
Remarks of President Berdymuhamedov, IFAS Heads of State Summit, 04/28/2009
Remarks of President Berdymuhamedov at the meeting with President Rakhmon, 10/01/2009
Roghun designed in Tashkent by Soviet experts. Built – like Nurek – to withstand 9+ earthquake;
Vakhsh cascade designed as a 2-reservoir system: upstream (Roghun) dam operates in energy mode, the downstream (Nurek) in irrigation mode;
Roghun would open up hundreds of thousands of hectares of land for cultivation in Uzbekistan;
Tajikistan would never harm downstream neighbors – anyway, Roghun upstream from Nurek, so cannot hold back water;
Bigger problem in Central Asia is unchecked construction of new downstream reservoirs. This is killing the Aral Sea;
Tajikistan forced to provide for its own energy needs because it is excluded from regional exchanges.
Planned Roghun HPP & Reservoir on the Vakhsh River (Embassy Dushanbe)
Roghun site 2008
Roghun site 2010
Nurek reservoirNurek Dam
Government of Uzbekistan Expert Opinion on Roghun (November 2008)
Engineering design of Roghun HPS violates international rules; Amu-Darya’s natural runoff plainly matches irrigation requirements (80% of the
runoff occurs from Apr thru Oct); Roghun operation in energy mode would create water shortages downstream
(22% less water on average); The dam site is located within seismically active zone; construction of the dam
can provoke stronger earthquakes; destruction of the dam caused by earthquake would flood large populated areas in TJ, AF, UZ and TU;
Large winter releases would cause land deterioration in lowlands; Reduced summer releases would cause salt accumulation in large irrigated
fields downstream; $4.1 billion/year direct economic damages from loss of grain and cotton yields,
processing and fishing industry; $146.5 million environmental damages (reduction of riparian woodlands,
pastures, extinction of animal and bird species); Economic damages would affect 12 million people in Uzbekistan and 6 million
people in Turkmenistan; Energy regime of Roghun would worsen potable water supply to 18 million
people in downstream; Alternative to the Roghun would be to construct small hydropower dams with
daily regulation of storages.
World Bank Roghun Project Assessment Studies- The Five-Point Program -
Consultant (Assessment) Studies
The Bank will oversee consultant studies financed under IDA grant and credit to GOT, including a selection of consultants, contract negotiations and review of all interim and draft reports. The Bank will also affect direct payment to the consultants. All short-listed consultants have been selected thru ICB and are experienced in similar projects.
Regional Studies The bank will undertake certain studies independently of GOT, funded thru Bank managed trust funds. These studies will focus on: (a) alternatives to Roghun to meet both domestic energy needs and export opportunities; (b) possible mechanisms to manage reservoir operations with transboundary impacts; and (c) verification of hydrological data and analysis.
Panels of Experts The Bank will select, manage and fund two International Panels of Experts that will participate in the studies and provide independent advice, guidance and quality assurance. Panel members will be well-know in their fields of expertise and will be drawn from outside former Soviet republics to ensure independence. The Engineering/Dam Safety Panel will focus on TEAS while the Environment/Social Panel will focus on the ESIA; however, the Panels shall coordinate and ensure necessary linkages between the two studies (Note: These Panels are usually convened by the Borrower)
Riparian Involvement The Bank will facilitate a structured process for riparian involvement in the Assessment Studies, to include information exchange and access to independent experts. The specific program will be determined with input from riparians.
Commitments GOT has committed to fully comply with all Bank operational policies and to align construction with study results; specifically as it concerns the construction of the coffer dam. The Bank’s involvement is contingent on ongoing GOT commitment to the operation policies and ensuring no river diversion prior to completion of studies.
Timeline of Water-related Institutional and Treaty Events
2010: Aral SeaBasin Program
Phase III
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 19981991 1992 1991 1992 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 20061999 2000 2007-11
2007: UZ accedes to 1992 UNECEand 1997 UN
Water Conventions
1998: UN SpecialProgram for Economies
of Central Asia
2001: ShanghaiCooperationOrganization
2001: EurasianEconomic
Community
1992: EconomicCooperationOrganization
1997: Central AsianEconomic Cooperation
Organization
1994: Central AsianEconomic
Cooperation
1993: Commonwealthof Independent
States
1992: Almaty Agreement: ICWC, BWOs
1993: Kyzylorda Agreement: ICAS / IFAS
Co
lla
ps
e o
f U
SS
R
1994: Aral SeaBasin Program
Phase I
1998: SyrdaryaFrameworkAgreement
2002: DushanbeDeclaration
of Heads of State
1996: AmudaryaAgreement between
UZ and TU
2000: Chu-TalasAgreement between
KG and KZ
2006: MoU between
AF and TJ
2000: KZ accedes to 1992 UNECE
Water Convention
1995: Nukus Declaration
of Heads of State
2002: Aral SeaBasin Program
Phase II
1999: Agreementson (1) Hydrometeorologyand (2) Parallel Operation
of Energy Systems
2001: TW Framework Agreement between
KZ and CN
2006: FrameworkAgreement on
EP and SD in CA
2009: Heads of State Joint Statement
Our Bottom Line: During the next 10 years, many countries important to the United States will experience water problems—shortages, poor water quality, or floods—that will risk instability and state failure, increase regional tensions, and distract them from working with the United States on important US policy objectives. Between now and 2040, fresh water availability will not keep up with demand absent more effective management of water resources. Water problems will hinder the ability of key countries to produce food and generate energy, posing a risk to global food markets and hobbling economic growth. As a result of demographic and economic development pressures, North Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia will face major challenges coping with water problems.
The Aral Sea2000 2001 2002 2003
2004 2005 2006 2007
2008 2009 2010 2011