hwrf model sensitivity to non-hydrostatic effects hurricane diagnostics and verification workshop...
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HWRF Model Sensitivity HWRF Model Sensitivity to Non-hydrostatic to Non-hydrostatic
EffectsEffects
Hurricane Diagnostics and Verification Hurricane Diagnostics and Verification WorkshopWorkshop
May 4, 2009May 4, 2009
Katherine S. MaclayKatherine S. MaclayColorado State UniversityColorado State University
Department of Atmospheric ScienceDepartment of Atmospheric Science
OutlineOutline
MotivationsMotivations Model and data availableModel and data available Governing equationsGoverning equations Energy principlesEnergy principles Vertical velocity valuesVertical velocity values Horizontal velocity valuesHorizontal velocity values Epsilon valuesEpsilon values ConclusionsConclusions Future WorkFuture Work
Looking for answers…Looking for answers…
……via energy budget and PV field via energy budget and PV field analysis of HWRF modeled Tropical analysis of HWRF modeled Tropical CycloneCyclone
Internal and external influences on TC Internal and external influences on TC structure changestructure change– Better understanding of heating and wind Better understanding of heating and wind
structure relationships structure relationships – Extratropical transition Extratropical transition
Do the findings support/dispute Do the findings support/dispute observations and theories?observations and theories?
Tropical Cyclone Energy Tropical Cyclone Energy CycleCycle
P
K’
P’
K
Generation due to QDissipation via surface/internal friction
Azimuthal mean Variations from azimuthal mean
?
Kinetic Energy vs. Intensity
0
2E+16
4E+16
6E+16
8E+16
1E+17
1.2E+17
1.4E+17
1.6E+17
1.8E+17
0 20 40 60 80 100
Intensity (m/s)
KE (J
) HWRF
Recon
Hurricane Wilma Hurricane Wilma October 18, 2005 October 18, 2005
00Z HWRF run00Z HWRF run
[Maclay (2008)]
HWRF 2007 ModelHWRF 2007 Model
Moveable, 2-way nested gridMoveable, 2-way nested grid– 9 km inner grid spacing9 km inner grid spacing– 27 km outer grid spacing27 km outer grid spacing
Advanced physics schemes from GFS and Advanced physics schemes from GFS and GFDLGFDL
Advanced vortex initialization (prototype Advanced vortex initialization (prototype GSI)GSI)
Ocean coupling using POM with the loop Ocean coupling using POM with the loop current (GFDL initialization)current (GFDL initialization)
Retrospective runs from the 2005 seasonRetrospective runs from the 2005 season[Surgi (2008)]
Governing EquationsGoverning Equations
HFpvxkfdt
vd
)1(ˆ
VFgdt
dw
vtdt
d
Horizontal Momentum
Vertical Momentum
Material Derivative
Governing Equations Governing Equations (cont.)(cont.)
0)(
)(
vt
Qc
TTv
t
T
p
Hydrostatic Balance
Continuity Equation
Thermodynamic Equation
A few definitionsA few definitions
1p̂
p
dt
dw
g
1
p
pvt
p ˆ)1(
v
tgw
1
Energy PrinciplesEnergy Principles
22
2
1wvK
dt
dww
dt
vdv
dt
dK
2
1
Kinetic Energy Definition
Kinetic Energy Principle
QcT
cTvct
Tc pppp
Potential Energy Principle
KE Principle DerivationKE Principle Derivation
dt
dww
dt
vdv
VwFt
22
HFvpvt
v
)(
)(
PROBLEM: Data provided in constant pressure vertical coordinate
∆t : 6 hours
How significant are the contributions from w and ε?
Vertical VelocityVertical Velocity
Mean vertical velocity [m/s]
Standard Deviation Boundaries [m/s]
Horizontal VelocityHorizontal Velocity
Mean horizontal velocity [m/s]
Standard Deviation Boundaries [m/s]
Epsilon (non-hydrostatic Epsilon (non-hydrostatic correction term)correction term)
Mean Epsilon value
Standard Deviation Boundaries
ConclusionsConclusions
Non-hydrostatic effects make a Non-hydrostatic effects make a negligibly small contribution negligibly small contribution
The energy principles derived from the The energy principles derived from the hydrostatic approximated HWRF data hydrostatic approximated HWRF data are sufficient for our studiesare sufficient for our studies
What data is needed for a full What data is needed for a full
non-hydrostatic study…non-hydrostatic study…
Data in original sigma coordinatesData in original sigma coordinates Horizontal and vertical momentumHorizontal and vertical momentum Geopotential heightGeopotential height PressurePressure TemperatureTemperature Radiative heat fluxesRadiative heat fluxes Momentum fluxesMomentum fluxes Condensate heatingCondensate heating Relative humidityRelative humidity Specific humiditySpecific humidity Absolute vorticityAbsolute vorticity Cloud mixing ratioCloud mixing ratio Total column ice, water, snowTotal column ice, water, snow Sensible heat flux (sfc)Sensible heat flux (sfc) Latent heat flux (sfc)Latent heat flux (sfc) Surface Precipitation: total, convective, large-scaleSurface Precipitation: total, convective, large-scale
Data Needed for “full” Data Needed for “full” study study Data in original sigma coordinatesData in original sigma coordinates Horizontal and vertical momentumHorizontal and vertical momentum Geopotential heightGeopotential height PressurePressure TemperatureTemperature Radiative heat fluxesRadiative heat fluxes Momentum fluxesMomentum fluxes Condensate heatingCondensate heating Relative humidityRelative humidity Specific humiditySpecific humidity Absolute vorticityAbsolute vorticity Cloud mixing ratioCloud mixing ratio Total column ice, water, snowTotal column ice, water, snow Sensible heat flux (sfc)Sensible heat flux (sfc) Latent heat flux (sfc)Latent heat flux (sfc) Surface Precipitation: total, convective, large-scaleSurface Precipitation: total, convective, large-scale
Governing Equations: Governing Equations: Part IIPart II
HFpvxkfdt
vd
)1(ˆ
VFgdt
dw
vtdt
d
Horizontal Momentum
Vertical Momentum
Material Derivative
Governing Equations II Governing Equations II (cont.)(cont.)
0)(
)(
vt
Qc
TTv
t
T
p
Hydrostatic Balance
Continuity Equation
Thermodynamic Equation
v
tgw
1
A few definitionsA few definitions
p
pvt
p ˆ)1(
1p̂
p
dt
dw
g
1
Energy Principles IIEnergy Principles II
22
2
1wvK
dt
dww
dt
vdv
dt
dK
2
1
Kinetic Energy Definition
Kinetic Energy Principle
QcT
cTvct
Tc pppp
Potential Energy Principle
Hydrostatic Energy Hydrostatic Energy PrinciplesPrinciples
HFvtv
dt
vdv
)(
Kinetic Energy Principle
Potential Energy Principle
QcT
cTvct
Tc pppp
)(
)()(
The Next Steps…The Next Steps…
Energy budget analysis:Use the methods of Tuleya and Kurihara (1975) as a guide.
Energy and PV Energy and PV DiagnosticsDiagnostics
Stratosphere
Outflow Layer
Inflow Layer
Boundary Layer
Areas of interest indicated by the energy diagnostics will be further studied via analysis of the PV field.
ReferencesReferences
• Maclay, K.S., M. DeMaria, T. Vonder Haar, 2008: Tropical Maclay, K.S., M. DeMaria, T. Vonder Haar, 2008: Tropical cyclone size evolution. cyclone size evolution. Mon. Wea. Rev.Mon. Wea. Rev., , ??????..
• Surgi, N, 2008: Advancement of the HWRF for next generation Surgi, N, 2008: Advancement of the HWRF for next generation hurricane prediction at NCEP’s Environmental Modeling hurricane prediction at NCEP’s Environmental Modeling Center., Center., 28th Conf. on Hurricanes and Trop. Meteor28th Conf. on Hurricanes and Trop. Meteor. . http://ams.confex.com/ams/28Hurricanes/techprogram/paper_137876.htm. .
• Tuleya, R., and Y. Kurihara, 1975: The energy and angular Tuleya, R., and Y. Kurihara, 1975: The energy and angular momentum budgets of a three-dimensional tropical cyclone momentum budgets of a three-dimensional tropical cyclone model. model. J. Atmos. Sci.J. Atmos. Sci., , 3232, 287-301., 287-301.