HVCB Market InsightsBig Island Visitors Bureau Membership Meeting

December 4, 2015

Market Insights

Current Landscape: Growth from North America and beyond fuels 2015 increases

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

YTD Growth

+4.2%

Sources: Hawai‘i Tourism Authority

Year-Over-Year Growth in Total Hawai‘i Island Visitor Arrivals

Hawai‘i Tourism Authority (HTA)/Tor Johnson

Market Insights

Historical Hawai‘i Island Arrivals YTD through October

0

250,000

500,000

750,000

1,000,000

1,250,000

1,500,000

1,750,000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015P

1,360,9001,253,100

Hawai‘i Tourism Authority (HTA)/Tor Johnson

Continued economic growth on the road ahead…

Real GDP 2014 2015F 2016F

U.S. +2.4% +2.5% +2.4%

Canada +2.4% +1.2% +2.3%

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, December 2015

Hawai‘i Tourism Authority (HTA)/ Tor Johnson

National Travel Outlook

Travelers 2014 2015F 2016F

U.S. +2.7% +2.5% +2.1%

Canada -0.8% -4.8% +2.3%

Sources: US Travel Association, Conference Board of Canada, Smith Travel Research

Hawai‘i Tourism Authority (HTA)/ Dana Edmunds

U.S. Hotels 2015F 2016F

Supply +1.2% +1.4%

Demand +2.9% +2.2%

Occupancy +1.7% +0.8%

ADR +5.1% +5.2%

RevPAR +6.8% +6.0%

-25.0%

-20.0%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

115

120

125

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

Sentiment YoY Growth

2007 2008 2009 2010

112

March 2007 = 100

116

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

U.S. Air Leisure Traveler Sentiment Index & YoY Arrivals GrowthTravel Sentiment Index YoY Growth in Hawai‘i Visitor Arrivals from US

Source: MMGY Global, travelhorizons

Hawai‘i travel intentions

How likely are you to visit Hawai‘i in the next two years?

Source: MMGY Global, travelhorizons

19% 18%

17% 19%

2014 Q4 2015 Q4

ExtremelyLikely

Very Likely

37%36%

I would like to come to Hawai‘i, but …

2014 Q4 2015 Q4

Price of airfare 48% 47%

Price of hotel 23% 35%

Price of vacation package 35% 35%

Flight to Hawai‘i too long 29% 27%

Better value @ another dest. 19% 23%

Source: MMGY Global, travelhorizons

Hawaii vacation

Market Insights

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

3,500,000

4,000,000

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015FInterisland Overseas

Scheduled overseas seats to Hawai‘i Island to reach new high in 2015

Total Scheduled seats, 2004 – 2015F

Source: Airline schedules from Diio Mi

3.3 million(19% Overseas)

2.7 million(31% Overseas)

Source: Diio airline schedules

Year-over-Year Growth (%Change) in Scheduled Seats to Hawai‘i Island

Seattle, Oakland, San Diego and Los Angeles lead first quarter gains from North America 10.8%

4.3%

16.5%

11.6%

8.3%

0.8%

CY 2015F 2016 Q1F CY 2015F 2016 Q1F CY 2015F 2016 Q1F

Total(2.7 million seats)

North America(853,600)

Interisland(1.9 million)

Source: Diio airline schedules

Year-over-Year Growth (%Change) in Scheduled Seats to Kona

Seattle, Oakland, San Diego and Los Angeles lead first quarter gains from North America

12.5%

5.3%

17.8%

11.6%

8.8%

0.2%

CY 2015F 2016 Q1F CY 2015F 2016 Q1F CY 2015F 2016 Q1F

Total(1.9 million seats)

North America(809,000)

Interisland(1.1 million)

Source: Diio airline schedules

Year-over-Year Growth (%Change) in Scheduled Seats to Hilo

Interisland capacity leads growth in Hilo market

6.9%

2.0%

-3.3%

11.5%

7.6%

1.6%

CY 2015F 2016 Q1F CY 2015F 2016 Q1F CY 2015F 2016 Q1F

Total(824,900)

North America(44,500)

Interisland(780,400)

The Hawai‘i Island Air Service Cycle: Seats vs. Airfares

Market Insights

Sources: Air seats data from Diio airline schedules. O&D airfare data from U.S. Dept. of Transportation

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1 Q 2 Q 3 Q 4 Q 1

Airfares Growth

Air Seats Growth

2012 20152013 2014

Year-Over-Year Growth in U.S. Mainland – Maui Air Seats and Airfares

Oil Change: Lower prices forecasted to continue

$53$60

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015F 2016F 2017F 2018F 2019F

Oil (US$/barrel; Brent)

Source: Economist Intelligence Unit, Global Forecasting Service as of December 2015

Hawai‘i Tourism Authority (HTA)/ Kirk Lee AederSource: Hawai‘i Tourism Authority

YTD Thru October(YoY %Chge)

Forecast(YoY %Chge)

% of Hawai‘i

Hawai‘i State State Hawai‘i

Total +4.2% +4.2% +1.6% 100%

North America +5.8% +5.0% +1.3% 75%

US West +10.4% +7.2% +1.2% 41%

US East +0.4% +2.3% +1.3% 27%

Canada +1.9% +0.3% +1.1% 7%

Continued but slower growth forecast heading into 2016

Hawai‘i Tourism Authority (HTA)/ Kirk Lee AederSource: Hawai‘i Tourism Authority

Continued but slower growth forecast heading into 2016

YTD Thru October(YoY %Chge)

Forecast(YoY %Chge)

% ofHawai‘i

Hawai‘i State State Hawai‘i

Outside North Am. -0.3% +2.5% +2.2% 25%

Japan -17.3% -0.9% +1.1% 10%

Europe +5.3% -0.9% +2.0% 3%

Australia +13.4% +10.3% +1.5% (Oceania) 3%

China +32.1% +6.2% +7.0% 3%

Korea -12.6% -7.5% +6.0% 1%

New Zealand +2.5% +3.8% +1.5% (Oceania) < 1%

Heading into the “marketplace” in 2016…

North America: Following notable increases in 2015, continued but slower growth likely ahead.

Developing Int’l Potential: Mixed performance seen from Hawai‘i Island’s international markets in 2015, though these markets are small and interisland air access could challenge future growth.

Hawai‘i Tourism Authority (HTA)/ Dana Edmunds