HURRICANE DORIANBRIEFING

www.weather.gov/akq

Monday, September 2, 2019

NWSWakefieldVA

6:00 PM EDT

Prepared by: WFO Wakefield, VA

What has changed: The Storm Surge threat level has increased from Low to Moderate.

The information contained within is time-sensitive. Do not use after 6:00 AM EDT Tuesday.

By 6:00 AM EDT Tuesday.Next Briefing:

Disclaimer:

9/2/2019 5:41 PM www.weather.gov/akq

Wakefield, VAWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

Situation OverviewHurricane Dorian

Hazard Impacts Location Timing

Flooding Rain

There is the potential for significant rain,

but remains dependent on exact storm

track

Eastern VA and Northeast NC Thursday and Friday

Wind

There is the potential for tropical storm

force winds, especially along and near the

coast.

Eastern VA, Northeast NC, and

Southeast MD

Thursday and Friday

Storm Surge/

Inundation

While it is too early for any specific storm

surge values, some locations have the

potential to see moderate to major tidal

flooding.

Anywhere along the coast, but highest

lower Chesapeake Bay, southeast

Virginia, and northeast North

Carolina.

Thursday into Saturday

Tornado

Limited to no potential for Tornadoes

Marine

There is the potential for very dangerous

marine conditions

All coastal waters/ nearshore waters,

Chesapeake Bay, Sounds and lower

tidal rivers

High rip current risk lasting

through the week. Other

marine threats developing

Thursday into Saturday

9/2/2019 5:41 PM www.weather.gov/akq

Wakefield, VAWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

NOTE: Do not focus on the exact track. Impacts can occur well outside the area enclosed by the cone.

Immediate Concerns for the Local Area A risk for high rip currents will continue through the

week into next weekend.

Long Term Concerns for the Local Area Increasing confidence that we will see direct impacts

as early as Thursday morning with impacts most likely later Thursday through Friday.

Confidence is increasing with Dorian’s forecast track but significant changes are still possible.

Key Takeaways Do not focus on the track alone. Impacts will occur

well away from the center.

Review plans and begin preparations as there is still time over the next several days.

Monitor forecasts and seek information from trusted, official sources.

Situation OverviewHurricane Dorian

9/2/2019 5:41 PM www.weather.gov/akq

Wakefield, VAWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

Threat LevelsHurricane Dorian

Winds SurgeRainfall/

FloodingTornadoes

Incre

asi

ng T

hre

at

For information on specific hazards in this area,

please go to https://www.weather.gov/akq/tropical

Moderate Moderate

None

Moderate

9/2/2019 5:41 PM www.weather.gov/akq

Wakefield, VAWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

The threat for tropical storm force winds

has remained nearly steady across Eastern

VA, Northeast NC, and Southeast MD.

The most likely time of arrival of tropical

storm force winds is late Thursday or

Thursday night based on the current

NHC track.

Monitor forecasts and trends with future

updates.

TS Wind Speed ProbabilitiesHurricane Dorian

9/2/2019 5:41 PM www.weather.gov/akq

Wakefield, VAWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

50 Knot Wind Speed Probabilities

The threat for 50 knot winds has

remained nearly steady and is highest

along the immediate coasts of Southeast

VA and Northeast NC.

Probability of 50 knot winds is likely to

increase as arrival time gets closer.

Monitor forecasts and trends with future

updates.

Hurricane Dorian

9/2/2019 5:41 PM www.weather.gov/akq

Wakefield, VAWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

The earliest reasonable time of

arrival of Tropical Storm Force Winds

for Northeast NC and Eastern VA is

early Thursday morning.

However, the most likely time this

area could see Tropical Storm Force

Winds will be late Thursday or

Thursday night.

Earliest Reasonable Time of Arrival Hurricane Dorian

9/2/2019 5:41 PM www.weather.gov/akq

Wakefield, VAWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

Confidence is increasing that portions

of Eastern VA and Northeast NC will

see locally heavy rainfall.

Exact amounts will be dependent on

the track and speed of Dorian.

Timing for potential heavy rain is

from Thursday into Friday.

Potential Storm Total RainfallHurricane Dorian

Note: Confidence is increasing that portions of the area will see locally heavy rainfall.

9/2/2019 5:41 PM www.weather.gov/akq

Wakefield, VAWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

There will be a High Rip

Current Risk at area beaches on

Tuesday as large swells from

Dorian arrive.

A High Rip Current Risk is

expected through the coming

week.

Increased Rip Current RiskHurricane Dorian

The latest surf zone forecast can be found at:http://www.weather.gov/beach/akq

9/2/2019 5:41 PM www.weather.gov/akq

Wakefield, VAWEATHER FORECAST OFFICE

Key Take-AwaysHurricane Dorian

Confidence is MODERATE that the event will occur

Confidence is LOW regarding exact impacts

Marine conditions will likely become hazardous to dangerous due to increasing waves and the

potential for tropical storm force winds Thursday and Friday.

Confidence is increasing that portions of Eastern VA and Northeast NC will see locally heavy rainfall, but

exact amounts will be dependent on the track and speed of Dorian.

Tornado potential is low to none based on the current storm track.

There is the potential for surge and tidal flooding, potentially moderate to major in places, late

Thursday through Friday in the Bay and along the coast.

There is increasing confidence for tropical storm force winds across Eastern VA, Northeast NC, and

Southeast MD. The most likely time of arrival is late Thursday or Thursday night based on the current

NHC track.

www.weather.gov/akqNWSWakefieldVA

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