hurd personality presentation 2.1.pdf · personality traits and economic preparation for retirement...
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Personality Traits and Economic Preparation for Retirement
Michael Hurd RAND, NBER, NETSPAR, MEA
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Personality Traits and Economic Preparation for Retirement
Michael Hurd
Angela Duckworth
Susann Rohwedder
David Weir
Financial support from the Social Security Administration via a grant to MRRC is greatly appreciated. Additional support from the National Institute on Aging for data and model development is greatly appreciated
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What is personality?
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Big 5 personality structure Extraversion (or extroversion),
Agreeableness
Conscientiousness (or Dependability)
Emotional Stability (or Neuroticism in reverse)
Culture (or Intellect, or Openness to Experience)
Related to economic outcomes, especially conscientiousness
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Measurement in the Health and Retirement Study List of 26 words
Respondent can agree or disagree that word describes him/her
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(Please indicate how well each of the following describes you.)
Q33a Outgoing (Extroversion)
Q33b Helpful (Agreeableness)
Q33c Moody (Neuroticism)
Q33d Organized (Conscientiousness)
Q33e Friendly (Extroversion)
Q33f Warm (Agreeableness)
Q33l Creative (Openness)
1=A lot, 2=Some, 3=A little, 4=Not at all
Reverse coded: 4 = a lot
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Half of sample, 2006 leave-behind; other half in 2008
Following HRS Psychosocial Working Group, in each domain average the scores of the words.
Conscientiousness
Q33d Organized
Q33h Responsible
Q33m Hardworking
Q33t Careless (not reverse coded)
Q33z Thorough
Added and averaged; 1-4 with larger values applicable
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Distributions of scores
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Neuroticism scores among singles
One unit about 20th to 80th percentile
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.0 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.3 2.3 2.5 2.7 2.8 3.0 3.3 3.5 3.8 4.0
1.Male
2.Female
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Extraversion, singles
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.201.40
1.60
1.80
2.00
2.20
2.25
2.40
2.50
2.60
2.67
2.80
3.00
3.20
3.25
3.40
3.50
3.60
3.67
3.75
3.80
4.00
1.Male
2.Female
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Agreeableness, singles
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.20
1.20
1.80
2.00
2.20
2.40
2.50
2.60
2.75
2.80
3.00
3.20
3.25
3.33
3.40
3.50
3.60
3.67
3.75
3.80
4.00
1.Male
2.Female
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Singles: conscientiousness
0.00
0.20
0.40
0.60
0.80
1.00
1.201.80
2.00
2.20
2.33
2.40
2.60
2.67
2.75
2.80
3.00
3.20
3.25
3.33
3.40
3.50
3.60
3.75
3.80
4.00
1.Male
2.Female
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Singles: openness
0.00
0.10
0.20
0.30
0.40
0.50
0.60
0.70
0.80
0.90
1.00
1.3 1.6 1.9 2.1 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.5 2.6 2.8 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.8
1.Male
2.Female
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Women have higher scores than men.
Married persons show same patterns as single persons.
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Our question:
What is relationship between economic preparation for retirement and personality (Big 5)?
Conscientiousness likely related to greater economic resources…higher lifetime earnings.
But what about saving behavior? Someone with low earnings could be well prepared…good balance between resources and consumption. Related to ??
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Why do we care about personality traits and economic preparation?
Explaining unexplained heterogeneity: better model fit, smaller standard errors
Targeted interventions: policy may work better for some individuals…would like to know in advance
Where does conscientiousness come from? Perhaps could modify it.
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Economic preparation for retirement
Hurd and Rohwedder
MRRC Working Papers
Single persons and married persons 66-69
Initial consumption at 66-69
Estimated life -cycle paths of consumption from panel data (CAMS)
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Economic resources
Initial bequeathable wealth (age 66-69)
Pension income and Social Security income
Account for differential mortality, taxes, stochastic out-of-pocket spending for health care.
Can resources support simulated lifetime consumption path with high probability?
Are singles and couples consuming/saving at a sustainable level?
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Married persons: percent prepared by education
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%
< HS HS Some col. Col.
MaleFemale
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Single persons: percent prepared by education
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
< HS HS Some col. Col.
MaleFemale
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Relationship to personality
Number of simulations out of 100 where person dies with positive wealth
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Singles. Agreeableness
020
4060
8010
0su
m_n
odow
n10_
c
1 2 3 4agree
bandwidth = .8
Lowess smoother
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Singles: conscientiousness
020
4060
8010
0su
m_n
odow
n10_
c
2 2.5 3 3.5 4consci
bandwidth = .8
Lowess smoother
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Singles: extraversion
020
4060
8010
0su
m_n
odow
n10_
c
1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4extro
bandwidth = .8
Lowess smoother
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Singles: Neuroticism
020
4060
8010
0su
m_n
odow
n10_
c
1 2 3 4neurotic
bandwidth = .8
Lowess smoother
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Singles: openness
020
4060
8010
0su
m_n
odow
n10_
c
1 2 3 4open
bandwidth = .8
Lowess smoother
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Probits to explain whether prepared (1 = yes)
By marital status and sex
With and without education
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Couples. Marginal change in probability of being prepared
All p-value Males p-value Females p-valuewithout education neuroticism -0.05 0.03 0.02 0.62 -0.10 0.00extraversion -0.03 0.42 -0.10 0.10 0.02 0.65agreeable -0.02 0.63 -0.06 0.35 0.00 0.97conscient 0.08 0.02 0.17 0.00 0.01 0.79openness 0.00 0.91 -0.01 0.83 0.00 0.93
with education neuroticism -0.05 0.04 0.01 0.71 -0.09 0.00extraversion -0.02 0.51 -0.09 0.10 0.02 0.57agreeable -0.01 0.84 -0.04 0.48 0.01 0.90conscient 0.06 0.08 0.14 0.03 0.01 0.88openness -0.02 0.49 -0.03 0.60 -0.02 0.53N 949 357 592
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Singles. Marginal change in probability of being prepared
All p-value Males p-value Females p-valuewithout education neuroticism -0.08 0.03 -0.09 0.21 -0.06 0.15extraversion -0.11 0.04 -0.20 0.04 -0.08 0.18agreeable -0.08 0.15 0.00 0.99 -0.05 0.51conscient 0.03 0.62 0.08 0.42 0.03 0.57openness 0.07 0.13 0.07 0.51 0.06 0.27
with education neuroticism -0.08 0.05 -0.09 0.22 -0.06 0.21extraversion -0.07 0.19 -0.20 0.04 -0.02 0.77agreeable -0.07 0.20 0.01 0.93 -0.05 0.49conscient 0.01 0.84 0.08 0.43 0.01 0.86openness 0.02 0.73 0.05 0.62 -0.02 0.73N 542 124 418
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Is it economic resources or saving behavior?
Regression of total resources on personality with and without education
Resources
Bequeathable wealth and expected present value of pension income and Social Security benefits.
Life tables by sex, marital status and education
Regression of initial spending on personality with and without education.
Show coefficients on personality variables
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Couples. Regression of log total economic resources
All p‐value Males p‐value Females p‐valueWithout education neuroticism ‐0.10 0.04 0.11 0.22 ‐0.24 0.00extraversion 0.00 0.97 ‐0.12 0.35 0.09 0.31agreeable ‐0.12 0.15 ‐0.13 0.34 ‐0.15 0.19conscient 0.41 0.00 0.62 0.00 0.25 0.01openness 0.17 0.01 0.17 0.16 0.16 0.04With education neuroticism ‐0.07 0.13 0.07 0.39 ‐0.16 0.00extraversion 0.02 0.70 ‐0.10 0.37 0.11 0.16agreeable ‐0.01 0.85 0.01 0.94 ‐0.09 0.41conscient 0.27 0.00 0.34 0.01 0.20 0.01openness ‐0.01 0.93 0.02 0.88 ‐0.02 0.78
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Singles. Regression of log total economic resources
All p‐value Males p‐value Females p‐valueWithout education neuroticism ‐0.17 0.08 ‐0.15 0.47 ‐0.15 0.16extraversion ‐0.22 0.10 ‐0.28 0.34 ‐0.22 0.15agreeable ‐0.13 0.35 ‐0.05 0.87 ‐0.06 0.75conscient 0.31 0.02 0.32 0.23 0.33 0.03openness 0.38 0.00 0.20 0.50 0.41 0.00With education neuroticism ‐0.11 0.18 ‐0.12 0.56 ‐0.08 0.41extraversion ‐0.02 0.85 ‐0.32 0.25 0.06 0.66agreeable ‐0.06 0.66 0.11 0.70 ‐0.01 0.93conscient 0.23 0.04 0.38 0.14 0.21 0.11openness ‐0.02 0.90 ‐0.10 0.72 ‐0.03 0.83
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Couples: Regression of log of initial spending
All p‐value Males p‐value Females p‐valuewithout education neuroticism ‐0.017 0.552 0.089 0.064 ‐0.082 0.026extroversion ‐0.018 0.659 ‐0.046 0.494 0.008 0.872agreeableness ‐0.029 0.543 ‐0.020 0.785 ‐0.016 0.817conscientiousness 0.170 0.000 0.289 0.000 0.090 0.100openness 0.130 0.001 0.152 0.023 0.103 0.024with education neuroticism 0.000 1.000 0.069 0.121 ‐0.040 0.241extroversion ‐0.005 0.905 ‐0.039 0.532 0.019 0.694agreeableness 0.029 0.512 0.048 0.492 0.026 0.691conscientiousness 0.096 0.017 0.147 0.032 0.065 0.205openness 0.034 0.346 0.075 0.234 0.004 0.923observations 949 357 592
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Singles: Regression of log of initial spending
All p‐value Males p‐value Females p‐valuewithout education neuroticism ‐0.065 0.125 ‐0.009 0.907 ‐0.086 0.088extroversion ‐0.071 0.226 ‐0.037 0.742 ‐0.085 0.226agreeableness ‐0.032 0.618 0.006 0.960 ‐0.054 0.518conscientiousness 0.104 0.071 0.091 0.382 0.109 0.120openness 0.211 0.000 0.192 0.095 0.214 0.001with education neuroticism ‐0.045 0.255 0.008 0.915 ‐0.060 0.200extroversion 0.006 0.908 ‐0.056 0.605 0.029 0.666agreeableness ‐0.010 0.865 0.063 0.564 ‐0.053 0.498conscientiousness 0.080 0.139 0.124 0.224 0.062 0.345openness 0.045 0.406 0.073 0.530 0.030 0.633observations 537 123 414
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Conscientiousness increases both resources and spending.
What is effect on saving?
Have estimated ln( )
cd c
dp and ln( )
wd w
dp
the effect of personality on initial consumption and total resources
Some manipulation will show
/1/c w
d c wc w dp
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Difference in coefficients shows percentage change in consumption out of total rest-of-lifetime resources
Example. Married persons
Coefficients on consumption wealth consumption
minus wealth conscientiousness 0.170 0.410 -0.240openness 0.130 0.170 -0.040
For example if initial consumption is 6% of rest-of-lifetime resources, an increase in conscientiousness of one unit would reduce that to 4.5%
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Effect of personality traits on ratio of consumption to rest-of-lifetime wealth (%). Couples
All Males femalesWithout education neuroticism 8.5 -1.7 15.7extroversion -1.6 6.9 -7.8agreeableness 8.7 10.7 13.0conscientiousness -23.7 -33.5 -15.6openness -4.3 -1.8 -5.3with education neuroticism 6.8 0.2 12.2extroversion -2.9 6.1 -8.9agreeableness 4.4 3.8 11.1conscientiousness -17.2 -19.1 -13.9openness 3.9 5.8 2.4
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Effect of personality traits on ratio of consumption to rest-of-lifetime wealth (%). Single persons
All Males females without education neuroticism 10.0 14.2 6.4extroversion 14.6 23.9 13.5agreeableness 10.1 5.1 0.4conscientiousness -20.1 -23.2 -22.2openness -16.5 -0.7 -19.1with education neuroticism 6.8 12.4 1.8extroversion 2.9 26.1 -3.1agreeableness 4.6 -4.2 -3.9conscientiousness -15.3 -25.2 -15.0openness 6.0 17.7 5.7
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Conclusions
Personality measures are associated with economic preparation at retirement: conscientiousness (+); neuroticism (-)
Operate via economic resources at retirement.
Also via spending out of economic resources.
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For conscientiousness effects rather large:
Change from 20th to 80th percentile in conscientiousness reduces consumption out of rest-of-lifetime wealth by about 25%: spending increases but wealth increases much faster.
Other personality traits have meaningful effects but not always significant.
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The End