humankind 2.0: the technologies of the future 3. virtual ... · the virtual reality bubble? • vc...
TRANSCRIPT
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Humankind 2.0: The
Technologies of the Future
3. Virtual and Augmented Reality
Piero Scaruffi, 2016
See http://www.scaruffi.com/singular/human20.html
for the full text of this discussion
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Virtual Reality in 2016
• Zuckerberg
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The Virtual Reality bubble?
• VC investment in VR 2015: $692 million
• April 2015-March 2016: VCs invest $1.7 billion
in the 12 months leading to March 2016
• Q1 of 2016: VC invest $1.2 billion in VR, but
mostly Magic Leap
• May 2016: There are four AR/VR unicorns
already (Magic Leap, Oculus, Blippar,
MindMaze)
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The Virtual Reality bubble?
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The Virtual Reality bubble?
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A Brief History
• Ivan Sutherland, Univ. of Utah (1969,
funded by the CIA)
• Michael McGreevy (1984, NASA)
• Thomas Furness (1986, funded by the
airforce)
• Jaron Lanier (VPL, 1985)
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A Brief History
• Lucasfilm’s "Habitat“ (1986)
• Nintendo’s Power Glove (1989)
• CAVE at the University of Illinois
(1992)
• MMORPGs
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A Brief History
• The 1990s
– Sega VR (1993)
– Nintendo's Virtual Boy (1995)
– Future Vision Technologies’head-mounted
display Stuntmaster (1995)
– “The Matrix” (1999)
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A Brief History • The 2000s
– Online virtual worlds and avatars
– Habbo Hotel (Finland, 2000)
– Gaia Online (Silicon Valley, 2003)
– Second Life (Silicon Valley, 2003)
– There.com (Silicon Valley, 2003)
– IMVU (Silicon Valley, 2004)
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A Brief History • The 2000s
– Second Life: some famous avatars
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A Brief History
• The 2000s
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A Brief History
• The 2000s
– The cost of LCD screens declines thanks
mainly to Hitachi's In Plane Switching
design and Samsung's Multi-domain design
– The cost of 3D motion capture declines
(Microsoft Kinect, 2010)
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Virtual Reality
• Big picture
13
Digi-Capital: $30
billion market by 2020
(50% from VR games)
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Virtual Reality
• Mostly for games, partially for marketing and simulation
• Main target: the consumer
• Viewers (2014-15): Oculus Rift, Samsung Gear VR, Google Cardboard
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Virtual Reality
• Tethered to computer, small range of
movement: Facebook Oculus
• Tethered to computer, large range of
movement: HTC Vive
• Smartphone required: Samsung Gear VR,
Google Cardboard
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Virtual Reality
• Stand-alone headset (no PC/smartphone required)
– Intel's Project Alloy
• Intel to open-source the Alloy hardware
• Microsoft Windows Holographic to add support for virtual- and augmented-reality headsets to all Windows 10 PCs
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Virtual Reality
• 2016 sales
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Virtual Reality
• Content
– Cameras: Jaunt VR, Matterport, Lucid VR, Google's Jump, Intel's RealSense camera
– Stories: NextVR, NY Times (2015)
– 3D Video: 8i
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Virtual Reality
• Content
– End-to-end virtual reality:
• GoPro
– Six-camera Omni VR
– Partnerships with 100+ developers
– LiveVR wireless streaming tool
– GoPro VR video channel
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Virtual Reality
• Content
– DoubleMe: convert 2D into 3D
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Virtual Reality
• Competitive landscape
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Virtual Reality
• Problem: motion sickness
• Solutions:
– Faster processors: Qualcomm Snapdragon 820 (2016)
– Google/Intel/Qualcomm's Project Tango
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Virtual Reality
• The near future
– Near-eye light field technology:
Magic Leap ($4.5 billion valuation
in Jan 2016)
– Spatial tracking (where your head
is): HTC Vive and Lighthouse
– Smartphone VR: enabled by
Google’s Project Tango
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Virtual Reality
• The near future
– Magic Leap
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Virtual Reality
• Magic Leap’s first product in
August 2018
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Virtual Reality
• Applications
– Gaming: Facebook Oculus Rift
– Pain Relief: DeepStream
– Training
– Immersive Journalism
26 Nonny_de_la_Pena’s “Project Syria” (2014)
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Experiencing Reality
• The future of "distance learning“
– Stanford/ zSpace (Sunnyvale)
– Unimersiv (San Mateo)
– Alchemy VR (London)
– Immersive VR (Ireland)
– Google’s Pioneer Expeditions
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Experiencing Reality
• The future of "distance learning“
– Metaverse Channel
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Experiencing Reality
• The future of news
– Nonny de la Pena’s "Project Syria“
(2014)
– The "reader" becomes an "observer",
and therefore is much more likely to
"feel" the story instead of simply
"hearing" it.
– Chris Milk, founder of VR storytelling
company Vrse (2014): "Clouds Over
Sidra“ (2015)
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Experiencing Reality
• Virtual reality: immersive content
• E.g.,: Guardians’ “solitary confinement”
The Guardian (2016) 30
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Experiencing Reality
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The old way to make you
feel that you are there
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Experiencing Reality
• Documentary
– Biennale
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Experiencing Reality
• Tribeca 2015
• Venice Biennial 2017
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Experiencing Reality
• Documentary
– Chernobyl 360 on Kickstarter (2016)
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Marketing
• Framestore’s Volvo app
• YouVisit’s guided tours of hotels
• Outlyer’s interactive advertisements
• Matterport for real estate
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Art Museum
• HTC Vive Arts (2017)
– Partnerships with London's Royal Academy
of Arts, Taipei's National Palace Museum,
Paris' National Museum of Natural History,
Washington's Newseum, St Petersburg's
Hermitage, London's Tate Modern, etc
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Teleporting to Shows
• Multiplication of tickets
– Attend the show as if it was happening now
and here
– The "live" experience is different from being
at home.
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Virtual Reality
Holographic Meetings, e.g. Mimesys
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Virtual Reality
• Nvidia (2013) and Magic Leap (2016? - $600M in
funding in 2015!): the near-eye light field display
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Nvidia 2013
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Virtual Reality
• Smartphone VR
– Google’s Project Tango (2014), a
phone + developer kit with
advanced 3D sensors that help the
phone track motion and build a
visual map of rooms using 3D
scanning
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Virtual Reality
• Apple
– 2013: acquired PrimeSense -
motion-detection technology
– 2015: acquired Metaio -
augmented reality
– 2015: acquired FaceShift -
animated avatars
– 2016: acquired FlyBy - ?
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Virtual Reality
• A world of avatars
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Dmitry Itskov
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Virtual Reality
• 3D scanning + VR/AR
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Augmented Reality
• 1990: Tom Caudell (Boeing) coins the
term “augmented reality"
• 1999:ARToolKit (Hirokazu Kato &
Mark Billinghurst)
• 2008: augmented reality on CNN
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Augmented Reality
• 2009: Eyepet
• 2014: Daqri’s Smart Helmet
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Augmented Reality
• Main target: the office
• Meta: see-through display (2014)
• Microsoft Hololens (2015)
• Intel RealSense ZR300 (2016)
• Lumus (Israel): see-through display
• Blippar (Britain): visual discovery app
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Augmented Reality
• Meta’s workspace (2017)
• Mira’s headset (2017)
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Augmented Reality
• Blippar (Britain): visual discovery app
• MindMaze (Switzerland): stroke-rehabilitation therapy
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Augmented Reality
• Augmented reality: immersive fun
• E.g.,: Evening Standard's blippable Queen selfie (2015)
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Augmented Reality
• Augmented reality superimposes
virtual objects on the physical world
• Has Pokémon Go Paved the Way
for Adoption of Augmented Reality?
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Augmented Reality
• Augmented reality
1. Location tracking (Pokemon Go)
2. 2d AR on smartphones (e.g. the back
of a cereal box): passive experience
3. 3d AR on headsets (holograms that
can be manipulated and can be
explored): fully immersive/interactive
room-scale experience
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Augmented Reality
• Augmented reality
3d AR on headsets
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Augmented Reality
• City guide
53 https://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/eye-tracking-and-its-economic-feasibility
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Augmented Reality
• A visual Wikipedia for every single place and
object in the world, a geographically distributed
web of webs
• Wherever you look, you will open a universe of
information
• Augmented reality glasses will turn our flat
world of information into a multidimensional
universe of universes.
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Augmented Reality
• a
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Augmented Reality
• Like a universe of universes
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Augmented Reality
• Medical applications
– conference
57
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Augmented Reality
• Medical applications
– Augmented Surgery
58
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Augmented Reality
• Medical applications
– Augmented Surgery
59
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Augmented Reality
• Medical applications
– Augmented Surgery
• Ramesh Raskar (MIT Media Lab)
60
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Augmented Reality
• Medical applications
– Augmented imaging
61
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Augmented Reality
• Medical applications
– Physical therapy
62
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Augmented Reality
• Medical applications: vision improvement
63
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Augmented Reality
• Medical applications: anti-stress
64
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Augmented Reality
• Medical applications: stroke rehabilitation
65
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Augmented Reality
• The windshield!
66
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Augmented Reality
• The landscape becomes
a blank canvas
• AR becomes a new way
to send messages that
can even be 3D objects
• A new dimension of
chatting
67
Digital sculpture visible only with Hololens
(Seattle, 2016)
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AR/VR Contact Lenses
• Innovega/ eMacula
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AR/VR Contact Lenses
Sony
Patent
Samsung
Patent
Google Patent
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Reader’s Attention
• Technology for tracking readers interest
– Eye tracking data for qualitative website testing
70
Here is what
your eyes
see
https://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/eye-tracking-and-its-economic-feasibility
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Reader’s Attention
• Technology for tracking readers interest
– Eye tracking data
71
Here is what
you don’t
see
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Reader’s Attention
• Technology for tracking readers interest
– Eye tracking data
72
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Reader’s Attention
• Technology for tracking readers interest
– Eye tracking + Augmented Reality
73
https://www.slideshare.net/Funk98/eye-tracking-and-its-economic-feasibility
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Reader’s Attention
• Technology for tracking readers interest
– The future? EEG + Eye tracking
74
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Eye Tracking Tech
• 5G democratized AR
75
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Eye Tracking Tech
• 5G enables eye tracking AR smartphones
76
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Motion Capture
• Technology for tracking readers interest
– Installing the motion-capture suit
77
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Motion Capture
• Technology for tracking readers interest
– Synchronized avatars
78
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Motion Capture
• Technology for tracking readers interest
– Delayed avatars
79
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Motion Capture
• Technology for tracking readers interest
– Iconized avatars
80
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Artificial Friendliness
• Brainwave sensors:
– SOSO (South Korea)
– ElMindA (Israel)
81
ElMindA
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Virtual and Augmented Reality
for Connecting People
Gregorij Kurillo
Teleimmersion Lab @ UC
Berkeley
San Francisco LASER of 9/12/2017
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http://tele-immersion.citris-uc.org
Exoskeletons
HART Lab
http://hart.berkeley.edu/
Human-Assistive Robotic Technologies Lab
Human-Robot Collaboration
Smart Vehicles Human Kinematic & Dynamic Modeling
VR & AR for Telemedicine
Soft Robotics
Gregorij Kurillo, UC Berkeley
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Teleimmersion
• First application: Distributed
Dance
– Collaboration with University
of Illinois at Urbana-
Champaign (2001-08)
– Real-time interaction of dancers
across the network
Gregorij Kurillo, UC Berkeley
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Teleimmersion
Gregorij Kurillo, UC Berkeley
• First application: Remote collaborative dancing
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Current application: Augmented
Telemedicine Platform
Gregorij Kurillo, UC Berkeley
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Tele-rehabilitation
• Collaboration with UC Davis
Medical Center (2014)
• Use of Microsoft Kinect
camera to connect patient and
caregiver for assessment and
physical rehabilitation.
• Remote assessment of
function in clinical trials
(reduce costs, travel etc.)
Gregorij Kurillo, UC Berkeley
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Tele-consultation
• Use of tele-immersive
technology to connect remote
expert and worker in the field.
• Goals are to improve
communication, facilitate
more informed decisions, and
reduce errors due to
miscommunications between
remote teams.
• Technology to bridge virtual
and augmented reality.
Gregorij Kurillo, UC Berkeley
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Augmented Telemedicine Model (2016)
Instructions Augmented feedback
Digital information from hospital …
Body surface imaging Vital signs
Ultrasound data …
Digital Triage Intervention
Gregorij Kurillo, UC Berkeley
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3D Reconstruction and Visualization
Data Capture with 3D camera
Texture + Depth Encoding
Texture + Depth Decoding
3D Mesh Model Reconstruction
Texture Mapped Model
Internet 4G/Wifi
Exp
ert
Sid
e
Gregorij Kurillo, UC Berkeley
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VR Interaction - Annotations
Exp
ert
Sid
e
Gregorij Kurillo, UC Berkeley
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VR Interactions - Measurements
Exp
ert
Sid
e
Gregorij Kurillo, UC Berkeley
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AR Feedback
Digital annotations created by the expert are transmitted over the network and projected onto the body area in real time.
Pati
ent
Sid
e
Pati
ent
Sid
e
Exp
ert
Sid
e
Gregorij Kurillo, UC Berkeley
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Streaming of Ultrasound Video
Exp
ert
Sid
e
Gregorij Kurillo, UC Berkeley
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Technological Barriers
Gregorij Kurillo, UC Berkeley
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Artificial Friendliness
• Gesture-based control of devices
97 (Source: Hashem AL-Ghaili
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ceN3grs0fWw)
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Artificial Friendliness
• Gesture recognition
– Pebbles (Israel, 2011 - acquired by
Oculus)
– Google’s Project Soli (2015): based
on the principle of the radar
98
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Artificial Friendliness
• Simulation
99
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Artificial Friendliness
• Optical touch
– Any surface becomes a keyboard
(Lumio)
– Any surface becomes a touch-screen
(Touchjet)
100
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Experiencing Reality
• The experience of "watching" content can
be completely different.
• We live in a world in which the "attention
span" has been constantly reduced.
• Virtual reality can be the perfect antidote
to the trend towards “multi-tasking”
• Virtual reality is a medium that "forces"
absolute focus on the content
101
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Experiencing Reality
• A new dimension in human-machine
interaction, one in which the machine is not a
distraction but an aid to concentration
• Virtual reality enables interaction based on
everything that we do: gazes, gestures, body
movement, and some day maybe even
breathing and thinking.
• Not “watching” or “listening” but
"experiencing“
102
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Experiencing Reality
• The future of "distance learning“
– Stanford/ zSpace (Sunnyvale)
– Alchemy VR (London)
– Immersive VR (Ireland)
– Google’s Pioneer Expeditions
103
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Experiencing Reality
• What is missing from virtual reality:
the other senses
• Multi-sensory reality
104
Adrian Cheok, Mixed Reality Lab
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Experiencing Reality: Touch
SubPac
Delivers low
frequencies to body
UltraHaptics
Soundwaves create
touch sensation
Melissa Merencillo
Rez Infinite Synesthesia Suit (by students Yukari Konishi,
Nobuhisa Hanamitsu, Benjamin
Outram, and Kouta Minamizawa at
the Keio University Graduate School
of Media and Design in Japan)
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Experiencing Reality: Smell
• Vaqso
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Social or Anti-social?
• Email (1972): death of the handwritten letter, but it allows people to keep in touch much more frequently
• Videogames (1970s) turn computers into an antisocial medium
• Facebook and Wechat (2000s): shallow "social" life
• Facebook has a Like button but not a Dislike button
• Friendship became a commodity
• Worse: Facebook makes money out of your friendships
• Your social life is someone else's business model 107
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Social or Anti-social?
• "Second Life“ (2003): the future of
social media?
• Socializing in a virtual world (in a
world that doesn't exist)
108
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Social or Anti-social?
• "Second Life“ (2003): a place for
business meetings and brainstorming
109
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Social or Anti-social?
• "Second Life“ (2003): classes,
conferences and lectures
110
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Social or Anti-social?
• VR documentaries
– Nonny de la Pena’s "Project Syria“
(2014)
– The "reader" becomes an "observer",
and therefore is much more likely to
"feel" the story instead of simply
"hearing" it.
– Chris Milk, founder of VR storytelling
company Vrse (2014): "Clouds Over
Sidra“ (2015)
111
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Virtual Reality
• The Virtual World Creators
– Unreal Engine 4
– Razer OSVR or Open Source
Virtual Reality
– EON Reality
– Worldviz
– Unity 5
– Unity EditorVR (2016)
112
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Virtual Reality
• The Virtual World Creators
– Improbable (London, 2012)
– Autodesk's Stingray (2015)
113
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Virtual Reality
• The Virtual World Creators
– OpenSim (2007), an open-source,
multi-platform, multi-user 3D
application server (compatible
with Second Life)
114
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Virtual Reality
• The Virtual World Creators
– VR business today: mostly devices to "consume"
virtual reality, not the tools to create virtual world
– Penrose Studios’ virtual-reality film, "The Rose
And I“ (2016)
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Virtual Reality
• The Virtual World Creators
– The future of "writers“: create a world and
escort the viewer
– I will escort you into my world and we will
socialize in it.
– "Life" will not be about going to a place
that preexists but about going to the places
that we design.
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Virtual Reality
• The Virtual World Creators
– The future of urban planners: simulate the
city
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Virtual Reality
• The Virtual World Creators
– Vrtuoso (2018)
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Social Virtual Reality
• Hang out with real people in virtual reality
• Altspace (Redwood City, 2013)
• High Fidelity (San Francisco, 2013)
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Social Virtual Reality
• Facebook Spaces
• BigScreen
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When AI meets VR
• Artificial Intelligence creates "artificial
beings", and Virtual Reality creates an
"artificial world“
• The beings that inhabit a virtual world are
avatars of real people…
• …but could also be independent beings that
exist only in that world (self-creating avatars)
• You will not know who are avatars of real
people and who are artificial avatars
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When AI meets VR
• Artificial Intelligence can be used to "power"
your own avatar.
• My avatar in Second Life disappears when i
am not playing.
• A.I. could keep it awake and playing even
when i am not in Second Life.
• Eternalize yourself!
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Lifenaut
Botanic
Oben
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When AI meets VR
• The new generation of avatars could be
"autonomous" avatars that (who?) learn your
personality and then continue living in Second
Life even when you "switch off"
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When AI meets VR
• Magic Leap (2018)
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AR Communications
• Magic Leap (2018)
• Twilio (2018)
• Spatial (2018)
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Reality Check
• In 2007 Gartner Group predicted that 80% of Internet users would have an avatar in a virtual world by 2011
• In 2013 Kzero forecasted 2014 sales of virtual reality headsets "to exceed 200,000".
• Statista predicted that in 2016 Samsung would sell 5 million Gear VR.
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• In 2015 not even 1% of Internet users had an avatar in a virtual world.
• There was no virtual-reality headset available in 2014 for the mass market
• Samsung shipped 4.5 million units worldwide in 2016 (competitors Sony, HTC and Oculus shipped a combined 1.4m units)
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A Roadmap
• 2010s:
– 3D modeling and 3D display
– Motion sensors
– Devices to experience VR with smartphones
(mobile VR)
– Videogames
– Marketing applications
– Business presentations (Microsoft HoloLens)
– 3D CAD/CAM/Printing
– Avatars for health care
– Avatars for investment 127
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A Roadmap
• 2016-17: Driven by the headsets
• 1017-18: VR goes social
• 2018-19: Driven by the market
• Desktop VR
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A Roadmap
• 2020:
– From passive 3D 360-degree video to
“true” active VR
– Active VR, not just passive: you "control"
the real world, not just "experience" it.
– A new generation of motion sensors
– Total immersion media:
• Journalism
• Cinema
• Training/education/simulation 129
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A Roadmap
• 2025:
– Brainwave sensors
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Dangers • Mis-information
– A realistic movie can convince a lot of people that its
story is true
– You are even more likely to believe what is
"happening" in the virtual world
– The danger is that virtual reality will be used to spread
all sorts of false information in a very effective way.
131 “Capricorn 1”
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Hyper-Reality
• Live streaming
– 2015: Periscope in the top 10 most popular social-networking apps on both Google Play and the App Store
– YouNow
– Meerkat
– Facebook Live
• In virtual reality you hide yourself, you become someone else, while in live streaming you are "naked in front of everybody“
• Maybe they complement each other?
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Neuro-Reality
• Virtual reality is "vulnerable" to neuroscience.
• E.g., Matthew Phillips (HRL) trains people by
transferring the brain waves of an expert into the
brain of a novice
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Philosophy
• Zhuang Zhou/ Chuang-Tzu (4th c. BC): "I did
not know whether it was Zhou dreaming that he
was a butterfly, or it was now a butterfly
dreaming that it was Zhou"
• Nick Bostrom: Are we living in a simulation?
(2003)
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Art
• Myron Krueger
• Jeffrey Shaw
• Lynn Hershman
• Nicole Stenger: “Angels” (1992),
the first immersive movie
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Art
• Peter d'Agostino
• Michael Naimark
• Charlotte Davies
• Kazuhiko Hachiya
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Osmose (1995)
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Art
• Rachel Rossin
• Chris Milk
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Art
• Studio Drift:
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Art
• John Klima
139 “Glasbead (2000)
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Art
• Hayoun Kwon
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Art
• Manifest.AR
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Art
• Mel Chin
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Art
• Janani Balasubramanian: AR game “Heisenberg”
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Art
• Jennifer Steinkamp (1958, USA)
– “You” (2016)
– “Womb” (2019)
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Art
• Tribeca 2015
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Art
• Tribeca 2016
– Baobab Studios: Invasion!
– New York Times: Seeking Pluto’s
Frigid Heart
– Tyler Hurd: Old Friend
– Patrick Osborne: Pearl
– Anthony Ferrante: Killer Deal
– S.E.N.S. VR
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Pearl
Old Friend
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Art
• Tribeca 2017
– Steven Schardt: Auto
– The Protectors (Imraan Ismail &
Kathryn Bigelow)
– Jérôme Blanquet : Alteration
– Ethan Shaftel: Extravaganza
– Selly Raby Kane: The Other Dakar
– Arden’s Wake
– Apex
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Apex
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Art
• Tribeca 2018
– “Arden’s Wake, Tides Fall”
– “Battlescar”
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Apex
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Art
• HTC Vive Arts (2017)
– Partnerships with London's Royal Academy
of Arts, Taipei's National Palace Museum,
Paris' National Museum of Natural History,
Washington's Newseum, St Petersburg's
Hermitage, London's Tate Modern, etc
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Art
• Laurie Anderson
– Chalkroom (2017)
– To the Moon (2017)
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Art
• Alejandro Inarritu
– Carne y Arena (2017)
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Art
• Fable Studio
– Wolves in the Walls (2019)
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Bibliography
153
1990s
2010s
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Contact
• www.scaruffi.com
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See http://www.scaruffi.com/singular/human20.html
for the full text of this discussion