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Human Population Statistics, 2012 World Population = 7.05 billion China = 1.36 billion India = 1.26 billion USA = 315 million Indonesia = 245 million Brazil = 199 million Click on this to see up to the minute US and World Population Clocks 2

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World Vital Events Per Time Unit: 2010 (numbers represent people) 3 Time UnitBirthsDeathsNatural Increase Year131,940,51656,545,13875,395,378 Month10,995,0434,712,0956,282,948 Day361,481154,918206,563 Hour15,0626,4558,607 Minute251108143 Second4.21.82.4

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Population Terms and Definitions P = B D + (I O) Population = Births Deaths + (In-migration Out-migration) The migration part of the equation only applies to population in countries or regionsobviously not to total global populationat least not yet! English is a funny language: In-migration is known as Immigration Out-migration is known as Emigration But both are pronounced the same..? Another type of migration is Transmigration (Internal Migration) Migrating from one place to another within the same country Ex: moving to urban areas, agricultural workers moving from region to region to follow crop harvests, the westward expansion of America in 18 th and 19 th centuries, migration of Indonesian farmers from Java to outer islands in 20 th century, 4

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Population Terms and Definitions (continued) Fertility Rate = total number of children the average woman has during her entire reproductive lifespan Fertility Replacement Value (FRV) = the fertility rate at which a stable population is ensured. FRV = 2.1 That is, the average woman should have a total of just over 2 children in order to ensure a stable human population Zero Population Growth (ZPG) = A population that is stable (neither increasing or decreasing) Demography, demographic = the science of studying population characteristics 5

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Total Fertility Rates 6 1.Which regions of the world have the lowest fertility rates? 2.Which have the highest? 3.Think about what this means

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Animated Video of Human Population Growth 7 Video Link (7 minutes long) Video Link Watch it Think about the implications

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World Human Population Growth Rate 8 This graph shows total human population for the past 12,000 years. As you can see, we didnt reach 100 million until about 500 BCE (BC) [a]. Then we experienced slow population growth until about 1000 CE (AD) [b]. Population began rising at a dramatic rate in the past 500 years or so. We hit our first billion by1815 CE [c] and added another six billion in less than 200 years! [d] a b c d

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World Population Projections Now weve zoomed in on the past two centuries and added population growth projections for the next century Skyrocketing human population growth is probably beginning to slow Most experts think the medium projection is the most likely 9

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Comparison of Population Pyramids Very high fertility rateVery low fertility rate 10 Go to next slides for explanation

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Explanation of High Fertility Rate Population Pyramid 11 Large step between 0- 5 and 5-10 year olds indicates a high birth rate and/or a high under five mortality rate. Concave, pyramidal shape indicates a low life expectancy. (Fewer people alive in each age category and very few elderly.) Also a high birthrate (more people were born in each younger age category. Age (categories for every 5 years from birth to 100) Total number of people (male or female) of that age category This is a rapidly growing population!

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Explanation of Low Fertility Rate Population Pyramid 12 Fewer children born in each newer age category. (Very low birthrate). Baby boom. High number of middle-aged indicative of a much higher birthrate about 40 years ago. Convex shape indicates a rapidly decreasing birthrate and a fairly high life expectancy. This is a population that will decrease in the future.

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What can you tell about this population pyramid? What can you determine about the following demographic indicators by analyzing this graph? (Answers on next pageTry to answer without looking first) 1.What is the fertility rate? 2.What is life expectancy? 3.What are infant and child mortality rates? 4.How is the population changing? (grow, shrink, stable) 5. What country do you think it is? And why?

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1. Fertility rate Around FRV (2.1) 2. Life expectancy Long life expectancy around 79 years 3. Infant and child mortality Very low rates 4. Population growth Slowly growing but nearing ZPG 5. What country is it? Its highly developed and large. If you add up the population it is around 300 million. So.Its USA

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The different population pyramids on the previous slides represent societies in different stages of demographic transition We theorize that all societies go through 4 (maybe 5) stages of demographic transition For most of human history, societies were at Stage 1 Very high birth rate Very high death rate These rates oscillate based on availability of food, disease, conflict, severe weather, Since P = B - D, this yields a stable population Demographic Transition Model 15

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Stage 2 shows the changes wrought by the Scientific and Industrial Revolutions Advances in medicine, sanitation, food preparation, food storage, refrigeration, transportation, immunizations, dramatically reduced death rates in a relatively brief time Birth rates remain high because, unlike death rates, birth rates are primarily culturally determined. It takes generational changes in values, norms, traditions to change the number of babies people tend to have (Chinas One Child Policy is an exception) So, fewer people die, but many are still born. These people mature and have many babies themselves. Population rises rapidly Many LDCs are currently at Stage 2 16

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Stage 3 shows a decline in birth rates brought about by cultural changes After a society industrializes, people move off of farms and into cities. The average level of education increases. Women leave the home and enter the workforce. All these factors work to lower the birth rate Women gain greater control over reproduction Many children are needed to work a farm, but having too many children becomes detrimental to urban workers (think of medical and educational expenses) Research shows that education is the most effective form of society-wide birth control. In nearly every case, when average education levels increase, birth rates decrease So, births decrease and the rate of population growth begins to slow Some LDCs & many MDCs are in Stage 3 17

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Stage 4 represents highly developed countries Birth and death rates have stabilized at low levels Total population also stabilizes Many MDCs are in Stage 4 Stage 5 is a new addition to the model that tries to understand recent trends in some of the most highly- developed countries in the world The death rate of an aging, industrial population increases (natural causes, cancers, heart disease,) Birth rates in Western Europe and wealthy East Asian countries have declined rapidly in recent decades Fertility rates in these countries have dropped below FRV 18

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Three Perspectives on Population Growth 1.Neo-Malthusian Based on ideas of Thomas Malthus in 18 th c. Closely related to modern environmentalism Resources are essentially finite, so expanding population will eventually surpass the ability of the earth to sustain it and lead to starvation, environmental destruction, disease, and human misery 2.Cornucopian (Technological) Technological advances and the effect of market forces will mitigate the negative impact of increasing population More people mean more scientists, engineers, and workers. As resources become scarce, their price will go up. This leads people to use less and to develop new resources. Technological advances in deep sea offshore oil drilling are good examples of Cornucopian thinking in action. Of course, there are some downsides as well. 3.Structural (Marxist) Population growth is not a cause of social and economic problems, but a result of unjust, global economic structures that lock LDCs in a cycle of poverty 19

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Migration There are about 214 million international migrants in 2010 There are about 42 million forcibly displaced people 15 million refugees + 1 million asylum-seekers + 26 million Internally displaced persons (IDP) The two main types of international migration, in order: 1.Economic Migrant Seeking employment, better economic conditions 2.Refugee Fleeing conflict, religious or political persecution, disease, famine, drought, Asylum-seeker is someone who says they are a refugee but whose claim has not yet been verified IDPs are refugees within their own countries 20

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Transmigration and Urbanization As of 2008, more than the human population lived in cities For the first time in human history, we are an urban species! A mega-city is generally defined as an urban area with more than 10 million inhabitants Depending how you measure them, there are currently at least 22 megacities in the world Some of these are merging with nearby cities to form vast mega- regions Heres an interesting article on the phenomenon: Mega-Regions This could be the future 21 Source: UNPD20102050 World51% urban69% urban MDCs75% urban86% urban LDCs29% urban55% urban

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DONT PANIC The Facts About Population Video Link (One Hour Long) Video Link The world might not be as bad as you might believe! Dont Panic is a one-hour long documentary produced by Wingspan Productions and broadcasted on BBC on the 7th of November 2013.Wingspan Productions Watch it Think about it Write a 4-5 paragraph summary/critique Submit under Assignments on Isidore 22

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Acronyms to Know Find them in the chapter, power point, or the list of acronyms on p.329 in the text. There is no assignment due yet for these acronyms. The acronyms of Modules 7 & 8 will be combined for the Acronym 5 Assignment FRV IDP UNHCR ZPG 23

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Assignmentsdue 7/23 News Summary and Analysis on Population and/or Migration Dont Panic summary/analysis Module 7 Discussion in Forum 24