human behavior and sustainability
DESCRIPTION
This study investigates how individual shopping travel behavior reshapes the format of our cisites using Agent Based Modeling and SimulationTRANSCRIPT
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A Story about “Sustainability”
How do we change the world
Jing (Eric) Du
2/17/2012
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What is “Sustainability”?
Source: www.un-documents.net/wced-ocf.htm
“(Sustainability) is development that meets the needs of the
present without compromising the ability of future generations
to meet their own needs.”
-- United Nations, March 20, 1987
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“Mixed land use is critical to sustainability”
Sustainable Urban Forms– Neotraditional Dev. :mixed land use; diversity
– Compact City :mixed land use; density; diveristy; compact; tranportation
– Urban Containment :mixed land use; diversity; compact; transportation
Mixed Land Use– Diverse functional land uses in a given area
– Reduce auto-travel
– Economic, Environmental and Social benifits
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But the reality...
Left to right: New York, East Lansing, Victoria
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Why are most real world cities “unmixed”?
“Traditional rigid zoning”
Breheny 1993; Masnavi 2000; Beatley 2000; Wheeler 2002; and ...
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But...are they right?
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Human Behavior
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A simple story: go shopping!
Attractiveness: size, price...
Income
Gravity model
Distance
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A simple story: go shopping!
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An Artificial World: parameters
Parameter Value Explanation
Grid 50*50 2,500 cells
Simulation time 200 200 ticks or steps
Initial number of households 200 ea
Initial number of stores 20 ea
α [0.0, 6.0] Parameter of gravity model
β [0.0, 6.0] Parameter of gravity model
Store operation expense N (0.2, 0.05) Follow a normal distribution
Store size Pareto (500000, 2) Follow a Pareto distribution
Household purchase N(500, 100) Follow a normal distribution
Initial store’s cash reserve size Set the initial cash reserve same as store size
Expand threshold 2*size If cash_reserve >2*size, then expand
Baseline 0.3*size If cash_reserve<0.3*size, then quit the market
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Snapshot: when α=1.0, β=[0.25, 6.0]
Monte Carlo process
50 artificial cities
625 different parameter combinations
31,250 simulations
114 hours in two computers
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Does mixed land use really lead to less transportation?
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Less transport due to the increase of walkability?
0.25 0.
5
0.75
0000
0000
0000
4 11.
25 1.5
1.75 2
2.25 2.
52.
75 33.
25 3.5
3.75 4 6
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
Transportation
Walk distance Total distance Car distance
- The freqency of auto-travel doesn’t decrease;
- The frequency of nonauto-travel doesn’t increase;
- But the distance of each auto-travel is significantly reduced.
- Proved by many emperical studies (Kitamura et al. 1997; Boarnet and Sarmiento 1998; Boarnet and Crane 2001)
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Impacts of human behaviors on urban form?
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Impacts of human behaviors on auto-travel needs?
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Impacts of human behaviors on walkability?
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Why do most cities today have concentric areas?
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Why do most cities today have concentric areas?
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Lessons learned?
Mixed land use can lead to less transportBut it’s attributed to the reduction of each auto-travel distance, instead of the increase of walkability
Human behavior shapes our city: The improvement of transportation technology and efficiency makes people willing to drive, and in turn today’s cities are more “concentrated”
Sustainability is a complex issue
The application of computer simulation
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Discussion
Behavior
Environment
Society
Economy