Hudson Bay and Approaches Hudson Bay and Approaches 50% d h i d 197150% d h i d 1971 2006200650% decrease over the period 197150% decrease over the period 1971--20062006Historical Total Accumulated Ice Coverage 0625 Historical Total Accumulated Ice Coverage 0625 –– 10151015

0.25Hudson Bay / Baie d`Hudson

0.20

mal

isée

0.15

ture

des

gla

ces

norm

short name / nom en bref: HUDBAY

source region / région source: HB / BH

0.10

e co

vera

ge /

couv

ert

ice season (mmdd) / saison des glaces (mmdd): 0625-1015

averages based upon / les moyennes basées sur: 1971-2000

by / par:

0.05

norm

alis

ed ic

by / par: CIS / SCG

0.00

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

season / saison

Murmansk to Churchill – The Arctic Bridge

Omnitrax

Implications for CanadaImplications for CanadaImplications for CanadaImplications for Canada•• Increased access to Hudson Bay and Port of Increased access to Hudson Bay and Port of

ChurchillChurchill•• Similar to Gulf of St Lawrence by midSimilar to Gulf of St Lawrence by mid--centurycentury

Increase from 13 to 20 weeks in 35 years

Sea Ice InterSea Ice Inter--Annual Variability is SignificantAnnual Variability is Significant

B f t SBeaufort SeaLancaster Sound

P l S dPeel Sound

We have experienced years in the past where a given year can have 3 times more or lesscan have 3 times more or less ice than the previous year

GCM Projections for Northern HemisphereGCM Projections for Northern Hemisphere

MAR SEPTSeptemberMarch

• Canadian model has ice-free summers by 2050

• Main ensemble of models delays this until next century