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BERLINCONVENTIONTHE LEADING TRAVEL INDUSTRY THINK TANK

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ITB World Travel Trends Report 2008/2009

Message from the Pisa Forum 2008=

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The decline in the month of April, which distorts the general trend through the

first five months of 2008, was related to the timing of Easter, which fell in April

in 2007 and in March this year. Since the Easter period generates a significant

amount of travel from the leading traditional source markets, the timing clearly

has a big impact on growth in the individual months.=

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Easter 2007 8 April

Easter 2008 23 March

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10.5

4.9

0

2

4

6

8

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12

14

16

18

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0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2005 2006 2007 2008

International tourist arriv als

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íÜáë=èìÉëíáçå= áå= íÜÉ=bìêçéÉ~å=qê~îÉä=jçåáíçê=èìÉëíáçåå~áêÉ= áë=~= Ñçìê=éÉêÅÉåí~ÖÉ=

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pçìêÅÉ= B=ëÜ~êÉ~=

fåíÉêåÉí= QT=qê~îÉä=~ÖÉåÅó= OP=cêáÉåÇëLêÉä~íáîÉë= NV=qê~îÉä=ÖìáÇÉ= U=qê~îÉä=ÄêçÅÜìêÉ= T=kÉïëé~éÉê= O=qçìêáëí=çÑÑáÅÉ= N=qs= N=líÜÉêë= P=kç=áåÑçêã~íáçå= NT=

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qÜÉ= ÖêçïáåÖ= É~ëÉ= çÑ= ÇáêÉÅí= ÄççâáåÖë= íÜêçìÖÜ= íÜÉ= áåíÉêåÉí= áë= ïçêâáåÖ= íç=

ìåÇÉêãáåÉ= íÜÉ= êçäÉ= çÑ= íÜÉ= êÉí~áä= íê~îÉä= íê~ÇÉI= Äìí= ~í= íÜÉ= ë~ãÉ= íáãÉ= íÜÉ= êáëÉ= áå=

Çóå~ãáÅ=é~Åâ~ÖáåÖ=çÑÑÉêÉÇ=ÇáêÉÅíäó=Äó=íçìê=çéÉê~íçêë=íç=ÅäáÉåíë=ÄççâáåÖ=çåäáåÉ=áë=

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D~ÅÅçããçÇ~íáçå=çåäóD= ÄççâáåÖë= ~åÇ=~= PB=ÇÉÅäáåÉ= áå= Díê~åëéçêí= çåäóD= ÄççâáåÖëK=

qÜÉëÉ= Ñìää= é~Åâ~ÖÉë= áåÅäìÇÉ= é~Åâ~ÖÉë= ëÉäÑJí~áäçêÉÇ= çåäáåÉI= éêáã~êáäó= ~ë= Çóå~ãáÅ=

é~Åâ~ÖÉëK= fåíÉêÉëíáåÖäóI= ~äíÜçìÖÜ= ~ÅÅçããçÇ~íáçåJçåäó= éêÉJÄççâáåÖë= êçëÉ= çåäó=

ãçÇÉê~íÉäóI= éêÉJÄççâáåÖë= ÇáêÉÅí= ïáíÜ= ÜçíÉäë= êçëÉ= ëÜ~êéäóI= áãéäóáåÖ= íÜ~í= íê~îÉä=

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Other

1%

Accommodation

only

16%

Transport only

22%

Packages

61%

========


^ãçåÖ=íÜÉ=Ñìää=é~Åâ~ÖÉëI=íÜÉêÉ=ï~ë=~=RB=áåÅêÉ~ëÉ=áå=~ÅÅçããçÇ~íáçå=éäìë=ÑäáÖÜí=

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NSB=áåÅêÉ~ëÉ=áå=~ÅÅçããçÇ~íáçå=éäìë=çíÜÉê=ÄççâáåÖëK=qÜÉ=DçíÜÉêëD=ãáÖÜí=áåÅäìÇÉ=

íê~îÉä=áåëìê~åÅÉI=Å~ê=êÉåí~äëI=ÑÉêêáÉëI=ÅêìáëÉë=~åÇ=ÉñÅìêëáçåëK==

^ãçåÖ= íê~åëéçêíJçåäó= éêÉJÄççâáåÖëI= Åç~ÅÜ= ÄççâáåÖë= êçëÉ= Äó= SB= ~åÇ= íê~áå=

ÄççâáåÖë= Äó= PBI= Äìí= ÑäáÖÜí= ~åÇ= DçíÜÉêD= EéêÉëìã~Ääó= ã~áåäó= ÑÉêêó= ~åÇ= ÅêìáëÉF=

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% annual growth YTD (Jan-Aug)

8

4

-3

-5

0

5

10

Packages Transport Accommodation

fq_=tçêäÇ=qê~îÉä=qêÉåÇë=oÉéçêí NR=


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Çê~ã~íáÅ~ääó= Ñêçã=j~êÅÜI= ãçîáåÖ= áåíç= åÉÖ~íáîÉ= ÑáÖìêÉë= Ñêçã= gìåÉK= ^ë= ~= êÉëìäíI=

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aÉã~åÇ= Ñçê= çîÉêëÉ~ë= íêáéë= EáKÉK= íç= äçåÖJÜ~ìä= ÇÉëíáå~íáçåëF= ï~ë= ~äêÉ~Çó= Ççïå= áå=

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6.06.6

2.8

0.00.6

-0.8

-4.0

7.0 7.4

2.1

-0.8 -0.9

-5.0

0.4

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul

All destinations

Ov erseas

=~=mêÉäáãáå~êó=ÑáÖìêÉë=

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1.0

50.8

42.8

-6.4

2.9

4.3

0.5

5.2

-4.1

0.8

-4.6

5.9

-10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

All destinations

Africa

Middle East

Oceania

Central America

South America

Asia

Caribbean

Europe

Ov erseasª

Canada

Mex ico

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Outbound

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

same-day trips to USA

longer trips to USA

trips to other countries

Inbound

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

same-day trips from USA

longer trips from USA

trips from other countries

=~=a~í~=Ñçê=OMMU=éêçàÉÅíÉÇ=~í=ÖêçïíÜ=ê~íÉ=Ñçê=g~åì~êóJ^ìÖìëíK==

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íÜÉêÉ=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=çíÜÉêëI=ëìÅÜ=~ë=íÜÉ=áãéäÉãÉåí~íáçå=Äó=íÜÉ=rp^=çÑ=ëíêáÅíÉê=ÄçêÇÉê=

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Éñéä~áåë=íÜÉ=NPB=ÖêçïíÜ=áå=çìíÄçìåÇ=íêáé=îçäìãÉ=áå=íÜÉ=Ñáêëí=ÉáÖÜí=ãçåíÜë=çÑ=íÜáë=

óÉ~êK= qêáé= îçäìãÉ= íç= íÜÉ= rp^= áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ= Äó= NQBI= ïÜáäÉ= íêáéë= íç= çîÉêëÉ~ë=

ÇÉëíáå~íáçåë=êçëÉ=Äó=NNBK=fí=ëÜçìäÇ=ÄÉ=åçíÉÇ=íÜ~íI=~ë=~=êÉëìäí=çÑ=íÜÉ=ëíêçåÖ=Éìêç=

~åÇ=éçìåÇ=ëíÉêäáåÖ=áå=OMMT=~åÇ=Ñçê=ãìÅÜ=çÑ=OMMUI=bìêçéÉ=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=äçëáåÖ=ëÜ~êÉ=

áå=íÜÉ=`~å~Çá~å=ã~êâÉíK=

dáîÉå=íÜ~íI=çîÉê=~=ÑÉï=ÜÉÅíáÅ=Ç~óë=áå=lÅíçÄÉêI=íÜÉ=`~å~Çá~å=Ççää~ê=äçëí=ìé=íç=ORB=

çÑ=áíë=î~äìÉ=~Ö~áåëí=íÜÉ=rp=ÅìêêÉåÅóI=íÜÉ=çìíäççâ=Ñçê=íÜÉ=êÉã~áåÇÉê=çÑ=íÜÉ=óÉ~ê=áë=

åçí=ëç=ÄìääáëÜK=Efí=äçëí=ÉîÉå=ãçêÉ=~Ö~áåëí=íÜÉ=g~é~åÉëÉ=óÉå=~åÇ=ê~íÜÉê=äÉëë=~Ö~áåëí=

íÜÉ= ÉìêçI= Äìí= ÜÉäÇ= áíë= î~äìÉ= ~Ö~áåëíI= Ñçê= áåëí~åÅÉI= íÜÉ= éçìåÇ= ëíÉêäáåÖ= ~åÇ= íÜÉ=

jÉñáÅ~å=éÉëçKFK=_ìí= áí=áë=ëíáää=~åóçåÉÛë=ÖìÉëë=~í=íç=Üçï=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåÅó=ã~êâÉíë=ïáää=

éÉêÑçêã=çîÉê=íÜÉ=åÉñí=ÑÉï=ãçåíÜëK==

jçåíÜäó=íêÉåÇë=áå=`~å~Çá~å=çìíÄçìåÇ=íê~îÉä~I=g~åì~êó=íÜêçìÖÜ=^ìÖìëí=OMMU=EB=ÅÜ~åÖÉ=çå=ë~ãÉ=éÉêáçÇ=áå=OMMTF=

10.8

20.621.5

7.4

14.213.2

3.6

12.9

0

5

10

15

20

25

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug

=~=qêáéë=çÑ=çåÉ=åáÖÜí=çê=ãçêÉ=~äíÜçìÖÜI=ëíêáÅíäó=ëéÉ~âáåÖI=çìíÄçìåÇ=ÑáÖìêÉë=êÉéêÉëÉåí=êÉëáÇÉåíë=êÉíìêåáåÖ=íç=`~å~Ç~=~ÑíÉê=íÜÉáê=íêáéë==

pçìêÅÉW=`q`=

bñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉë=ä~êÖÉäó=

=íç=Ää~ãÉ=

^=ÄççãáåÖ=çìíÄçìåÇ=

ã~êâÉí=Ó=ëç=Ñ~ê=íÜáë=óÉ~ê=

~í=äÉ~ëí=

fq_=tçêäÇ=qê~îÉä=qêÉåÇë=oÉéçêí NV=


pçìíÜ=^ãÉêáÅ~=

pçìíÜ=^ãÉêáÅ~=~ééÉ~êë= íç=Ü~îÉ=ÄÉÉå=çåÉ=çÑ= íÜÉ=Ñ~ëíÉëí=ÖêçïáåÖ=ã~êâÉíë= áå=íÜÉ=

ïçêäÇ= Ñçê=çìíÄçìåÇ= íçìêáëã= áå= íÜÉ= Ñáêëí= ëáñ= íç=ÉáÖÜí=ãçåíÜë=çÑ=OMMUK= qÜÉ= íÜêÉÉ=

éêáåÅáé~ä=çìíÄçìåÇ=ã~êâÉíë=~êÉI=áå=çêÇÉê=çÑ=íêáéëI=^êÖÉåíáå~I=_ê~òáä=~åÇ=`ÜáäÉI=~åÇ=

áå= çêÇÉê= çÑ= ëéÉåÇáåÖI= _ê~òáäI= ^êÖÉåíáå~= ~åÇ= `ÜáäÉK= mÉêì= Ó= ÅìêêÉåíäó= íÜÉ= Ñ~ëíÉëí=

ÖêçïáåÖ= ÉÅçåçãó= áå= íÜÉ= êÉÖáçå= Ó= áë= åçï= íÜÉ= ÑçìêíÜ= ä~êÖÉëí=ã~êâÉí= áå= íÉêãë=çÑ=

íêáéëI= Äìí= áë= Ñ~ê= çìíÇáëí~åÅÉÇ= áå= íÉêãë= çÑ= ëéÉåÇáåÖ= Äó=`çäçãÄá~= ~åÇ= sÉåÉòìÉä~=

E~åÇ=åÉ~êäó=ã~íÅÜÉÇ=Äó=rêìÖì~óI=~=Åçìåíêó=ïáíÜ=Ä~êÉäó=çåÉ=íÉåíÜ=íÜÉ=éçéìä~íáçåFK==

qê~îÉä=áåíÉåëáíó=EçìíÄçìåÇ=íêáéë=éÉê=NMM=éÉêëçåëF=áë=ãìÅÜ=ÜáÖÜÉê=áå=^êÖÉåíáå~=ENN=

íêáéëF=~åÇ=`ÜáäÉ=EUF=íÜ~å=áå=pçìíÜ=^ãÉêáÅ~=~ë=~=ïÜçäÉ=EQF=~åÇ=áå=_ê~òáä=EOF=Ó=~=î~ëí=

Åçìåíêó=ïÜáÅÜ=EäáâÉ=íÜÉ=rp^F=äççâë=îÉêó=ãìÅÜ=íç=áíëÉäÑ=Ñçê=áíë=äÉáëìêÉ=~åÇ=ÄìëáåÉëë=

íê~îÉä=êÉèìáêÉãÉåíëK==

pçìêÅÉë=çÑ=çìíÄçìåÇ=íê~îÉä=Ñêçã=pçìíÜ=^ãÉêáÅ~I=OMMTJMU=

= OMMT= = qêáéë=éÉê= qêÉåÇ=áå=OMMU=pçìêÅÉ=ã~êâÉí= qêáéë=EãåF= pÜ~êÉ=EBF= NMM=éÉêëçåë= EB=áåÅêÉ~ëÉF=

^êÖÉåíáå~= QKP= PM= NN= SJNM=_ê~òáä= PKQ= OP= O= [NM=`ÜáäÉ= NKP= V= U= MJR=mÉêì= NKN= U= Q= MJR=líÜÉê= QKQ= PM= Q= MJR=qçí~ä= NQKR= NMM= Q= SJNM=

pçìêÅÉW=fmh=fåíÉêå~íáçå~äDë=pçìíÜ=^ãÉêáÅ~å=qê~îÉä=jçåáíçê=

fåÇáÅ~íáçåë= Ñêçã= fmh= fåíÉêå~íáçå~äDë=pçìíÜ=^ãÉêáÅ~å=qê~îÉä=jçåáíçê= ëìÖÖÉëí= íÜ~í=

íÜÉ=ÖêçïíÜ=áå=çìíÄçìåÇ=íêáéë=Ñêçã=_ê~òáä=ïáää=ÄÉ=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=NMB=áå=OMMUI=ïÜáäÉ=

íêáé=îçäìãÉ= Ñêçã=^êÖÉåíáå~=ïáää= áåÅêÉ~ëÉ=Äó=SJNMBI=ïáíÜ=çíÜÉê=pçìíÜ=^ãÉêáÅ~å=

ÅçìåíêáÉë=ìé=MJRBK=

lÑ= íÜÉ= íçí~ä=Éëíáã~íÉÇ=NQKR=ãáääáçå= íêáéë= í~âÉå=Äó= êÉëáÇÉåíë=çÑ=pçìíÜ=^ãÉêáÅ~= áå=

OMMTI= ~äãçëí= íïç= íÜáêÇë= ESPBF=ïÉêÉ= Ñçê=çíÜÉê=ÇÉëíáå~íáçåë= áå= íÜÉ= êÉÖáçåK= fåíê~J

êÉÖáçå~ä= íêáéë= ~åÇ= íêáéë= íç= kçêíÜ= ^ãÉêáÅ~= ~êÉ= ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ= Äó= fmh= fåíÉêå~íáçå~ä= íç=

Öêçï= íÜÉ= Ñ~ëíÉëí= áå=OMMUI=Äó=çîÉê=NMBK=qêáé= îçäìãÉ= íç=bìêçéÉ=ïáää= êáëÉ=Äó=~åÇ=

Éëíáã~íÉÇ= RJNMB= Ó= ïáíÜ= ê~íÜÉê= Ñ~ëíÉê= ê~íÉë= Ñçê= _ê~òáä= ~åÇ= ^êÖÉåíáå~= íÜ~å= íÜÉ=

~îÉê~ÖÉ=Ñçê=íÜÉ=êÉëí=çÑ=pçìíÜ=^ãÉêáÅ~=Ó=ïÜáäÉ=íêáéë=íç=`Éåíê~ä=^ãÉêáÅ~=ïáää=ëÜçï=

íÜÉ=ëäçïÉëí=ÖêçïíÜI=çÑ=äÉëë=íÜ~å=RBK==

fí=ëÜçìäÇ=ÄÉ=åçíÉÇ=íÜ~íI=áå=íÉêãë=çÑ=éìêéçëÉ=çÑ=íêáé=Äó=pçìíÜ=^ãÉêáÅ~åëI=ÜçäáÇ~ó=

íê~îÉä= ~ÅÅçìåíë= Ñçê= ~ë= ãìÅÜ= ~ë= SRB= çÑ= íêáé= îçäìãÉI= ïÜáäÉ= ÄìëáåÉëëLÅçêéçê~íÉ=

íê~îÉä=ÖÉåÉê~íÉë=~êçìåÇ=ORB=~åÇ=ÚçíÜÉê=äÉáëìêÉÛ=NQBK==

^=Ñ~ëíJÖêçïáåÖ=

íê~îÉä=êÉÖáçå=

fåíê~JêÉÖáçå~ä=íê~îÉä=

éêÉÇçãáå~íÉë=

OM jÉëë~ÖÉ=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=máë~=cçêìã=OMMU=


aÉëíáå~íáçåë=çÑ=çìíÄçìåÇ=íê~îÉä=Ñêçã=pçìíÜ=^ãÉêáÅ~I=OMMT=

Breakdown of trips by region

Europe

18%

Central

America

4%

North America

12%

Other

4%

South America

62%

=

=

=

=

=

=

=

pçìêÅÉW=fmh=fåíÉêå~íáçå~äDë=pçìíÜ=^ãÉêáÅ~å=qê~îÉä=jçåáíçê==

mÉêÜ~éë= åçí= ëìêéêáëáåÖäóI= ÖáîÉå= íÜÉ= ÉíÜåáÅ= ~åÇ= äáåÖìáëíáÅ= äáåâëI= pé~áå=~ííê~Åíë= íÜÉ=

ÜáÖÜÉëí=ëÜ~êÉ=çÑ=pçìíÜ=^ãÉêáÅ~å=íêáéë= íç=bìêçéÉ= ENVBFI=~ÅÅçêÇáåÖ=íç=íÜÉ=pçìíÜ=

^ãÉêáÅ~å=qê~îÉä=jçåáíçê=Äó=fmh=fåíÉêå~íáçå~äK=_ìí=fí~äó=áë=Üçí=çå=áíë=ÜÉÉäë=EïáíÜ=~å=

NUB=ëÜ~êÉFI=ÑçääçïÉÇ=Äó=cê~åÅÉ=ENRBFI=mçêíìÖ~ä=ENOBF=~åÇ=dÉêã~åó=ENNBFK=qÜÉ=

rh=ÅçãÉë=ëáñíÜ=áå=íÜÉ=ê~åâáåÖ=ïáíÜ=VBK=

pé~áå=áë=íÜÉ=Ñ~îçìêáíÉ=

bìêçéÉ~å=ÇÉëíáå~íáçåI=

ÑçääçïÉÇ=ÅäçëÉäó=Äó=fí~äó=

Breakdown of trips to Europe

Other

16%

UK

9%

Spain

19%

Germany

11%

Italy

18%

France

15%

Portugal

12%

fq_=tçêäÇ=qê~îÉä=qêÉåÇë=oÉéçêí ON=


^ëá~=

lîÉêîáÉï=çÑ=êÉÖáçå~ä=íêÉåÇë=

^ë=êÉÑäÉÅíÉÇ=áå=íÜÉ=rktql=êÉëìäíë=Ñçê=íÜÉ=Ñáêëí=ÉáÖÜí=ãçåíÜë=çÑ=OMMUI=çåÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=

ãçëí= ëìêéêáëáåÖ= íêÉåÇë= íç= ÅçãÉ= çìí= çÑ= íÜÉ= máë~= cçêìã= íÜáë= óÉ~ê=ï~ë= íÜÉ=ãìÅÜ=

ëÜ~êéÉê= íÜ~å= ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ= Ççïåíìêå= áå= áåíÉêå~íáçå~ä= íçìêáëí= ~êêáî~äë= áå= ^ëá~= m~ÅáÑáÅK=

qÜÉ=rktql=Ç~í~=ëÜçïÉÇ=~=VB=áåÅêÉ~ëÉ=áå=íÜÉ=Ñáêëí=èì~êíÉê=çÑ=íÜÉ=óÉ~êI=ïÜáÅÜ=ÑÉää=

íç=PB=áå=íÜÉ=ëÉÅçåÇK=^åÇI=Ä~ëÉÇ=çå=éêÉäáãáå~êó=êÉëìäíë=Ñçê=íÜÉ=ãçåíÜë=çÑ=^ìÖìëí=

~åÇ=pÉéíÉãÄÉêI=èì~êíÉê=íÜêÉÉ=ï~ë=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=íç=êÉÅçêÇ=~=ëäáÖÜí=ÇÉÅäáåÉK=

qÜÉ=íêÉåÇ=ï~ë=~ííêáÄìíÉÇ=íç=~=åìãÄÉê=çÑ=ÇáÑÑÉêÉåí=Ñ~ÅíçêëI=~ë=~äêÉ~Çó=Éñéä~áåÉÇ=Ó=

ëìÅÜ= ~ë= íáÖÜíÉåÉÇ= ëÉÅìêáíó= Ñçê= íÜÉ= _ÉáàáåÖ= läóãéáÅëI= áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ= îáë~= êÉëíêáÅíáçåëI=

~áêäáåÉ= ëìêÅÜ~êÖÉë= ÇìÉ= íç= áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ= çáä= ~åÇ= ÑìÉä= éêáÅÉëI= ~åÇ= ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åí= ~áêäáåÉ=

Å~é~Åáíó= ÅìíëK=_ìí= íÜÉ=ã~áå= êÉëìäíë=çÑ= ~ää= íÜÉëÉ= Ñ~Åíçêë=ïÉêÉ=ã~êâÉÇ= ëäçïÇçïåë=

~åÇ=ÉîÉå=ÇÉÅäáåÉë=áå=áåíê~JêÉÖáçå~ä=íê~îÉä=Ñêçã=äÉ~ÇáåÖ=ëçìêÅÉ=ã~êâÉíëK=

få= íÜÉ= Ñáêëí= ÉáÖÜí= íç= åáåÉ=ãçåíÜë= çÑ= OMMUI= çÑÑáÅá~ä= ÑáÖìêÉë= éçáåí= íç= ÇÉÅêÉ~ëÉë= áå=

çìíÄçìåÇ=íêáéë=Ñêçã=g~é~å=EJSB=íÜêçìÖÜ=íÜÉ=ãçåíÜ=çÑ=pÉéíÉãÄÉêFI=pçìíÜ=hçêÉ~=

EJQB= íç= pÉéíÉãÄÉêF= ~åÇ= q~áï~å= EJPKRB= íç= ^ìÖìëíFK= `Üáå~Ûë= çìíÄçìåÇ= íê~îÉä=

ÖêçïíÜ=ëäçïÉÇ= áå=íÜÉ=Ñáêëí=Ü~äÑ=çÑ= íÜÉ=óÉ~êI=~ë=~=êÉëìäí=åçí= àìëí=çÑ= íÜÉ=ìéÅçãáåÖ=

läóãéáÅ= d~ãÉë= Äìí= ~äëç= çÑ= íÜÉ= É~êíÜèì~âÉ= áå= pòÉÅÜì~å= mêçîáåÅÉ= ~åÇ= ÜÉ~îó=

ëåçïÑ~ääë=ÇìêáåÖ=íÜÉ=éÉ~â=cÉÄêì~êó=dçäÇÉå=tÉÉâ=ÜçäáÇ~ó=éÉêáçÇK=eçïÉîÉêI=áí=Ü~ë=

ëáåÅÉ=éáÅâÉÇ=ìé=~åÇ=áë=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=íç=ÉåÇ=íÜÉ=óÉ~ê=çå=~=éçëáíáîÉ=åçíÉK=

fmh= fåíÉêå~íáçå~äÛë=^ëá~å=qê~îÉä=jçåáíçêI=ïÜáÅÜ= áåÇáÅ~íÉë= Éëíáã~íÉÇ= íêÉåÇë= Ñçê= íÜÉ=

ïÜçäÉ=çÑ=OMMUI= ëÜçïë=ëáãáä~ê= íêÉåÇë= Ñçê= íÜÉ= Ñçìê= äÉ~ÇáåÖ=ëçìêÅÉ=ã~êâÉíë= áå= íÜÉ=

êÉÖáçåK=_ìí= áí= ÑçêÉÅ~ëíë=ãìÅÜ= ëíêçåÖÉê=ÖêçïíÜ= Ñçê= fåÇá~= EHNRBF=Ó=çåÉ=çÑ=^ëá~Ûë=

Ñ~ëíÉëíJÖêçïáåÖ=ã~êâÉíë= çîÉê= íÜÉ= é~ëí= ÑÉï= óÉ~êë= Ó= ~åÇ=j~ä~óëá~= EHNOBFI= ïáíÜ=

éçëáíáîÉ= ÖêçïíÜ= ~äëç= Ñçê= páåÖ~éçêÉ= ~åÇ= qÜ~áä~åÇ= EHQB= ~åÇ= HPB= êÉëéÉÅíáîÉäóFK=

^åÇ= áíë= ÑçêÉÅ~ëí= Ñçê= íÜÉ=êÉÖáçå=~ë=~=ïÜçäÉI= áå= íÉêãë=çÑ=çìíÄçìåÇ=íêáé=îçäìãÉ= áå=

OMMUI=áë=PB=Ó=çåäó=Ü~äÑ=íÜÉ=äÉîÉä=çÑ=ÖêçïíÜ=áå=OMMTI=Äìí=åÉîÉêíÜÉäÉëë=éçëáíáîÉK=

aáë~ééçáåíáåÖ=êÉÖáçå~ä=

~êêáî~äë=Á=

Á=ÇìÉ=íç=Ñ~äíÉêáåÖ=ÖêçïíÜ=

áå=äÉ~ÇáåÖ=^ëá~å=ã~êâÉíë=

lìíÄçìåÇ=íêáé=ÖêçïíÜ=

ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=íç=ëäçï=íç=Ü~äÑ=

OMMTÛë=äÉîÉä=

OO jÉëë~ÖÉ=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=máë~=cçêìã=OMMU=


j~àçê=ëçìêÅÉë=çÑ=çìíÄçìåÇ=íê~îÉä=Ñêçã=^ëá~I=OMMTJOMMU=

Trips (mn)

17.8

15.0

12.1

9.0

6.75.9

4.6

3.0

0

5

10

15

20

Japan China S. Korea Taiw an India Singapore Malay sia Thailand

2007 2008

Growth (%)

35

14

1

76

5

16

-5

10

1

-3

15

4

12

3

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

Japan China S. Korea Taiw an India Singapore Malay sia Thailand

Av erages for the eight markets:

2007: 6% 2008: 3%

=

pçìêÅÉW=fmh=fåíÉêå~íáçå~äDë=^ëá~å=qê~îÉä=jçåáíçê=

pçãÉ=íÜêÉÉ=èì~êíÉêë=çÑ=~ää=^ëá~å=çìíÄçìåÇ=íêáéë=~êÉ=Ñçê=ÇÉëíáå~íáçåë=áå=íÜÉ=êÉÖáçå=

Ó=~=ëÜ~êÉ=íÜ~í=~ééÉ~êë=íç=ÄÉ=ÖêçïáåÖI=~ÅÅçêÇáåÖ=íç=fmh=fåíÉêå~íáçå~äÛë=^ëá~å=qê~îÉä=

jçåáíçêK=bìêçéÉ=~ííê~ÅíÉÇ=~=NRB=ëÜ~êÉ= áå=OMMT=~åÇI=Ä~ëÉÇ=çå= íêÉåÇë= ëç= Ñ~êI= áë=

ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=íç=Öêçï=Äó=íÜÉ=ë~ãÉ=éÉêÅÉåí~ÖÉ=~ë= áåíê~JêÉÖáçå~ä=íêáéë=EHPBFI=_ìí=íÜÉ=

rp^Ûë= NMB= ëÜ~êÉ=ïáää= ÇÉÅäáåÉ= ÇìÉ= íç= ~= éêÉÇáÅíÉÇ= NB= Çêçé= áå= ÇÉã~åÇ= Ñçê= íÜÉ=

ÇÉëíáå~íáçå=íÜáë=óÉ~ê=~ãçåÖ=^ëá~åëK=^ÑêáÅ~I=ãÉ~åïÜáäÉI=ïáää=äáâÉäó=êÉí~áå=áíë=ãçÇÉëí=

NB=ëÜ~êÉ=çÑ=íçí~ä=íêáé=îçäìãÉK=

fåíê~JêÉÖáçå~ä=íê~îÉä=

ëíêÉåÖíÜÉåë=~í=íÜÉ=

ÉñéÉåëÉ=çÑ=äçåÖJÜ~ìä==

fq_=tçêäÇ=qê~îÉä=qêÉåÇë=oÉéçêí OP=


_êÉ~âÇçïå=çÑ=çìíÄçìåÇ=íê~îÉä=Äó=ÇÉëíáå~íáçå=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=ã~àçê=^ëá~å=ã~êâÉíëI=OMMT=

Breakdown (and expected trend in 2008) of trips by region

Other

1%

Americas

10%

Europe

15%

Asia Pacific

74%4%

1%

1%

=

=

=

=

=

=

pçìêÅÉW=fmh=fåíÉêå~íáçå~äDë=^ëá~å=qê~îÉä=jçåáíçê==

`Üáå~= áë= ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ= íç= êÉã~áå= íÜÉ= Ñ~îçìêáíÉ= ÇÉëíáå~íáçå= Ñçê= ^ëá~å= çìíÄçìåÇ=

íê~îÉääÉêë=áå=OMMUI=ÇÉëéáíÉ=~=éêÉÇáÅíÉÇ=QB=ÇÉÅäáåÉ=áå=íêáéëK=^ãçåÖ=íÜÉ=çíÜÉê=Ñçìê=

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Major destinations

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

China Thailand USA Japan Malay sia

7%7% 6%

4%

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Females

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 All trav ellers

1985-90 1990-95 1995-00 2000-05 2005-07

Males

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 All trav ellers

=

kçíÉW=D^ää=íê~îÉääÉêëD=áåÅäìÇÉë=çíÜÉê=~ÖÉ=Öêçìéë=

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ÉåîáêçåãÉåí=~åÇ=íÜÉ=ã~êâÉÇ=ëäçïÇçïå=áå=íÜÉ=ãçëí=êÉÅÉåí=ãçåíÜäó=áåÇáÅ~íçêë=çÑ=

íçìêáëã=~Åíáîáíó=åçï=éçáåí=íçï~êÇë=~=ãçêÉ=éêçåçìåÅÉÇ=ÅóÅäÉ=áå=Dqê~îÉä=C=qçìêáëã=

bÅçåçãó= damD= íÜ~å= Éåîáë~ÖÉÇ= áå= g~åì~êóI= íç= ìëÉ= lñÑçêÇ= bÅçåçãáÅëD= qçìêáëã=

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Forecast prepared in:

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Jan 2008 Aug 2008 Nov 2008

=

pçìêÅÉW=lñÑçêÇ=bÅçåçãáÅë=

qÜÉ= áãé~Åí= áå= ÑìíìêÉ= óÉ~êë= áë= ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ= íç= ÄÉ= ÖêÉ~íÉêK= qê~îÉä= C= qçìêáëã= bÅçåçãó=

dam=áë=åçï=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=íç=Åçåíê~Åí=Äó=NB=áå=OMMV=~åÇ=íç=Öêçï=Äó=àìëí=OB=áå=OMNMI=

çê= ~í= Ü~äÑ= áíë= íêÉåÇ= ÖêçïíÜ= ê~íÉK= qÜÉ=ÖççÇ=åÉïë= áë= íÜ~í= íÜáë= éçáåíë= íç= ~= ëíêçåÖÉê=

êÉÅçîÉêó=áå=íçìêáëã=ÇÉã~åÇ=áå=OMNMJNOK==

_ìí= áí= ÖçÉë= ïáíÜçìí= ë~óáåÖ= íÜ~í= íÜáë= ÑçêÉÅ~ëí= Ó= äáâÉ= ã~ÅêçÉÅçåçãáÅ= éêçëéÉÅíë=

ÖÉåÉê~ääó= Ó= Å~êêáÉë= ÇçïåëáÇÉ= êáëâë= áÑ= íÜÉ= ÅêÉÇáí= ÅêìåÅÜ= ÖÉåÉê~íÉë= ~= äçåÖÉêJíÉêãI=

ïçêäÇïáÇÉI=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=ëäçïÇçïå=ÉñíÉåÇáåÖ=íÜêçìÖÜ=íÜÉ=ïÜçäÉ=çÑ=åÉñí=óÉ~êK==

qÜÉ= ä~íÉëí= ÑçêÉÅ~ëíë= Ñêçã= lñÑçêÇ= ~åÇ= qçìêáëã= bÅçåçãáÅë= éêçÇìÅÉÇ= áåáíá~ääó= Ñçê=

tqq`=ëÜçï=íÜ~í=íÜÉ=NB=ÇÉÅäáåÉ=éêÉÇáÅíÉÇ=Ñçê=ÖäçÄ~ä=qê~îÉä=C=qçìêáëã=bÅçåçãó=

dam=áå=OMMV=Å~å=ÄÉ=~ííêáÄìíÉÇ=íç=ÇÉÅäáåÉë=Ñçê=bìêçéÉ=~åÇ=íÜÉ=^ãÉêáÅ~ëK=eçïÉîÉêI=

íÜÉ= ÖêçïíÜ= íêÉåÇ= Ñçê= íÜÉ=jáÇÇäÉ= b~ëíI=^ëá~= ~åÇ=^ÑêáÅ~=ïáää= êÉã~áå= éçëáíáîÉ= åÉñí=

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OMNM=Ó=~ëëìãáåÖ=íÜÉ=ÇçïåëáÇÉ=êáëâë=Çç=åçí=ã~íÉêá~äáëÉK==

cçêÉÅ~ëíë=çÑ=êÉÖáçå~ä=Dqê~îÉä=C=qçìêáëã=bÅçåçãó=damD=ÖêçïíÜI=OMMUJNM=EB=~ååì~ä=ÅÜ~åÖÉF=

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Europe Americas Middle East Africa Asia India World

2008 2009 2010

=

pçìêÅÉW=qçìêáëã=bÅçåçãáÅëX=tqq`=

qÜÉ=îçä~íáäáíó=çÑ=çáä=éêáÅÉëI=~åÇ=ÜÉåÅÉ=~áêäáåÉ=ÑìÉä=éêáÅÉëI=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=~=ã~àçê=áåÑäìÉåÅÉ=

çå=ÇÉã~åÇ=Ñçê=~áê=íê~îÉä=çîÉê=íÜÉ=é~ëí=ÑÉï=ãçåíÜë=Ó=~åÇ=íÜáë= áë=åçí=íç=ãÉåíáçå=

íÜÉ= áãé~Åí= çÑ= íÜÉ= éêáÅÉë= çÑ= çíÜÉê= íóéÉë= çÑ= ÑìÉä= çå= íê~îÉä= ÖÉåÉê~ääó= ~åÇ= çå=

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ÑÉää=ëÜ~êéäó=íç=~êçìåÇ=rpASM=áå=çåäó=íÜêÉÉ=ïÉÉâëI=~åÇ=áí=Ü~ë=ëáåÅÉ=Ñ~ääÉå=íç=ìåÇÉê=

rpARMK=

däçÄ~ä= çáä= ÇÉã~åÇ= ~åÇ= ëìééäó= Ü~îÉ= ÄÉÉå= áå= åÉ~ê= Ä~ä~åÅÉ= áå= êÉÅÉåí= óÉ~êëI=ïáíÜ=

ÇÉîÉäçéÉÇ=å~íáçåë=~ÅÅçìåíáåÖ=Ñçê=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=Ü~äÑ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ïçêäÇDë=íçí~ä=çáä=ÇÉã~åÇK=

eçïÉîÉêI=íÜÉ=Ö~é=ÄÉíïÉÉå=çáä=Åçåëìãéíáçå=áå=lb`a=ÅçìåíêáÉë=~åÇ=áå=íÜÉ=êÉëí=çÑ=

íÜÉ=ïçêäÇ= áë= åçï= å~êêçïáåÖK= _ó= íÜÉ= ÉåÇ= çÑ= OMMVI= ~ÅÅçêÇáåÖ= íç= däçÄ~ä= fåëáÖÜíI=

åçåJlb`a= ÅçìåíêáÉë= ~êÉ= ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ= íç= ~ÅÅçìåí= Ñçê= çîÉê= QRB= çÑ= íÜÉ= ïçêäÇDë= çáä=

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áåíÉåëáÑó= íÜÉ=íêÉåÇI=ÉëéÉÅá~ääó= áÑ= áåîÉåíçêáÉë= êáëÉ=ÄÉÑçêÉ=lmb`=Åìíë=çìíéìíK=däçÄ~ä=

fåëáÖÜí=ë~óë=íÜ~í=~=NB=áåÅêÉ~ëÉ=áå=çáä=éêáÅÉë=ïáää=íÉåÇ=íç=ÇÉÅêÉ~ëÉ=~êêáî~äë=áå=É~ÅÜ=

êÉÖáçå=Äó=ÇáÑÑÉêáåÖ=~ãçìåíëI=~ë=ëÜçïå=áå=íÜÉ=ÑçääçïáåÖ=ÅÜ~êíK=

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A 1% increase in oil prices decreases arriv als in each region by :

0.04%

0.07%

0.18%

0.08%

0.59%

0.04%

Africa

Middle East

Latin America

North America

Eastern Europe

Western Europe

=pçìêÅÉW=däçÄ~ä=fåëáÖÜí=

lïáåÖ=íç=íÜÉ=éêÉî~äÉåÅÉ=çÑ=ëÜçêíJÜ~ìä=íê~îÉäI=çáä=éêáÅÉë=Ü~îÉ=äáííäÉ=ÉÑÑÉÅí=çå=~êêáî~äë=

áå=tÉëíÉêå= bìêçéÉI= Äìí= íÜÉó= Ü~îÉ= íÜÉ= ÖêÉ~íÉëí= áåÑäìÉåÅÉ= áå= b~ëíÉêå= bìêçéÉ= ~åÇ=

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0.60

0.65

0.70

0.75

0.80

0.85

0.90

Dec 07 Jan 08 Feb 08 Mar 08 Apr 08 May 08Jun 08 Jul 08 Aug 08 Sep 08 Oct 08 Nov 08

Euro

0.40

0.45

0.50

0.55

0.60

0.65

0.70

UK £

€/US$

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2

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Asia Pacific Americas Europe Middle East & Africa

Occupancy

ADR (av erage daily rate)

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0

5

10

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20

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35

Under 20 20-22 23-25 26-30 Ov er 30

2002 2007

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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Camperv an

Camping

Self catering

Bed & breakfast

Independent guest house

VFR

Hotel

Backpacker/Youth hostels

2007 2002

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