FUTURE DEVELOPMENT:Tracking Houston’s Economic and

Demogra-phic Changes through 31 Years of Surveys

STEPHEN L. KLINEBERGThe Houston Association of Realtors: H-TOWN DAY

20124 October 2012

KINDER HOUSTON AREA SURVEY (1982-2012)

Supported by local foundations, corporations, and individuals, and now with a permanent home in the Kinder Institute for Urban Research, the annual surveys have interviewed 31 successive representative samples of Harris County residents.

In May 1982, just two months after the first Houston-area survey was completed, the 80-year oil boom suddenly collapsed.

The region recovered from the deep and prolonged recession of the mid 1980s to find itself squarely in the midst of …

a restructured economy and

a demographic revolution.

These are the same transformations that are refashioning all of American society. The Houston surveys have tracked area residents’ changing perspectives on these remarkable trends.

THE RESTRUCTURED ECONOMY

The “resource economy” of the industrial era, for which this city was so favorably positioned, has been replaced by a new high-technology, knowledge-based, fully worldwide marketplace.

The traditional “blue collar path” to financial security has now largely disappeared. Almost all the well-paid jobs today require high levels of technical skills and educational credentials.

In the 2012 survey, 65% of the survey respondents agreed that “There are very few good jobs in today’s economy for people without a college education.” In 2011, 78% disagreed that “A high school education is enough to get a good job.”

In this increasingly unequal, hourglass economy, “What you earn,” as the saying goes, “depends on what you’ve learned.”

POSITIVE PERCEPTIONS OF JOB OPPORTUNITIES IN HOUSTON (1982–2012)

82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

71

36

43

11

42

25

66 6468

41

58 57

45

35 35

48

YEAR OF SURVEY

PE

RC

EN

T G

IVIN

G P

OS

ITIV

E R

AT

ING

S

NEGATIVE PERCEPTIONS OF JOB OPPORTUNITIESAND ACTUAL UNEMPLOYMENT RATES (1982-2012)

82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

28

61

54

86

55

72

3234

57

40 41

53

61

61

51

4.7

9.8

6.7

10.1

5.1

7.8

4.4

4.0

6.8

4.5

4.3

6.6

8.68.4

7.3

Negative ratings of job opportunities

Official unemployment rates in Harris County

YEAR OF SURVEY

PE

RC

EN

T G

IVIN

G N

EG

AT

IVE

RA

TIN

GS

OF

FIC

IAL

UN

EM

PL

OY

ME

NT

RA

TE

S

SOURCE: US DEPARTMENT OF LABOR, BUREAU OF LABOR STATISTICS. UNEMPLOYMENT RATES ARE NOT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED.

PERCENT DOING BETTER IN LAST FEW YEARS AND EXPECTING TO DO BETTER IN NEXT FEW YEARS

82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 120

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

47

31

41

49

31

42

23

44

42

33

20

28 27

59 58

65 66

62

57 57 5654

YEAR OF SURVEY

PE

RC

EN

T S

AY

ING

'BE

TT

ER

'

Personal financial situation has been 'get-ting better' during the last few years

Will be 'better off' financially three or four years down the road.

PERCENT WITH PROBLEMS BUYING THE GROCERIES TO FEED THEIR FAMILIES (2002-2012)

2002 2009 2010 2011 20120

10

20

30

40

50

20

2830

20

32

PER

CEN

T H

AV

ING

‘SO

ME P

RO

BLE

M'

If R has a child living at home: “How serious a problem has it been for you personally during the past year to buy the groceries you need to feed your family? Has that been a very serious problem, somewhat serious, or not much of a problem for you during the past year?”

Percent saying: “somewhat” or “very serious” problem. (r=+.070, p=.000)

THE NEW IMPORTANCE OF QUALITY OF PLACE CONSIDERATIONS

Houston's prospects will now increasingly depend on the ability of the region to attract and retain the nation’s most skilled and creative “knowledge workers” and high-tech companies.

This will require continued significant improvements in …

the healthfulness of the region’s air and water quality

the excellence of its venues for sports, arts, and culture

its overall physical attractiveness and aesthetic appeal

the enhancement of its green spaces, trees, and bayous

the revitalization and preservation of its urban centers

the region’s mobility through its transportation systems

the richness of its hiking, boating, and birding areas

The public’s support for new initiatives along these lines has remained firm or grown stronger across the years of surveys.

RESIDENTIAL PREFERENCES (2008-2012)

2008 2010 20120

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

59 58

47

3639

51

53 2

A single-family home with big yard, where you would need to drive almost everywhere you want to go?

A smaller home in a more urbanized area, within walking distance of shops and workplaces?

Don't know/Can't say.

PER

CEN

T O

F R

ESPO

ND

EN

TS

"If you could choose where to live in the Houston area, which would you prefer? "

(correlation with year: r=+.109, p=.000)

THE INTEREST AMONG ANGLOS IN SOMEDAY MOVING FROM SUBURBS TO CITY AND FROM CITY TO SUBURBS (1999-2012)

1999 2000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20125

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

26 26

20

33

22

2729

22

31

28 29

33

52

44

48

3734

31

40

29

47

27

39

28

If lives in SUBURBS: 'very' or 'somewhat interested' in someday moving to the city.

If lives in CITY: 'very' or 'somewhat interested' in someday moving to the suburbs.

YEAR OF SURVEY

PE

RC

EN

T S

AY

ING

'VE

RY

' OR

'SO

ME

WH

AT

INT

ER

ES

TE

D’

[Anglo respondents only.]

r= +.038, p=.009

r= -.092, p=.000

THE DEMOGRAPHIC REVOLUTION

Along with the major immigration capitals of L.A. and N.Y.C., and closely following Miami, San Francisco, and Chicago, Houston is at the forefront of the new diversity that is rapidly refashioning the socio-political landscape of urban America.

Throughout all of its history …• this was essentially a bi-racial Southern

city,

• dominated and controlled, in an automatic, taken-for-granted way, by white men.

Today …• Houston is the most culturally diverse

metropolitan area in the country, and

• all of its ethnic communities are now minorities.

THE DEMOGRAPHIC TRANSFORMATIONS OF HARRIS COUNTY (U.S. CENSUS, 1960-2010)

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 (1,243,258)

(1,741,912)

(2,409,547)

(2,818,199)

(3,400,578)

(4,092,459)

0.0

500,000.0

1,000,000.0

1,500,000.0

2,000,000.0

2,500,000.0

3,000,000.0

3,500,000.0

4,000,000.0

4,500,000.0

Asians/Others

Hispanics

Blacks

Anglos

PO

PU

LAT

ION

, IN

MIL

LIO

NS

6.3%

32.9%

18.3%

42.5%

6.0%

19.8%

73.9%

0.3%

9.9%

20.1%

69.2%

0.8%

15.5%

19.7%

62.7%

2.1% 22.7%

19.1%

54.0%

4.1%

(1,243,258) (1,741,912) (2,409,547) (2,818,199) (3,400,578) (4,092,459)

SOURCE: US CENSUS. CLASSIFICATIONS BASED ON TEXAS STATE DATA CENTER CONVENTIONS.

7.7%

18.4%

40.8%

33.0%

THE DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES IN THE FOUR LARGEST SURROUNDING COUNTIES (2000-2010)

Fort Bend-2000 (354,452)

Fort Bend-2010 (585,375)

Montgomery-2000 (293,768)

Montgomery-2010 (455,746)

Galveston-2000 (250,158)

Galveston-2010 (291,309)

Brazoria-2000 (241,767)

Brazoria-2010 (313,166)

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

Asians/Others

Hispanics

Blacks

Anglos

PO

PU

LA

TIO

N

46.2%

19.6%

21.1%

13.1%

36.2%

21.1%

23.7%

19.0%

81.4%

3.4% 12.6%

2.5%

63.1%

15.3%

18.0%

3.7%

59.3%

13.5%

22.4%

4.8%

65.4%

8.3%

22.8%

3.5%

53.2%

11.8%

27.7%

7.3%

71.2%

4.1%

20.8%

4.0%

SOURCE: US CENSUS. CLASSIFICATIONS BASED ON TEXAS STATE DATA CENTER CONVENTIONS.

INTERACTIONS OF ETHNICITY AND AGE

The other demographic revolution: the remarkable “aging,”

or “graying,” of the American population.

Today’s seniors are primarily Anglos, and so are the 76 million

Baby Boomers, now aged 47 to 65. During the next 30 years, the numbers of Americans over the age of 65 will double.

The younger generations are disproportionately non-Anglo

and generally far less privileged, in terms of their levels of income, education, health status, and life chances.

Nowhere is this ongoing transformation more clearly seen

than in the age distributions of Harris County’s population.

AGES 65-90+ AGES 47-64 AGES 30-46 AGES 18-29 AGES 0-170

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

57

47

31

28

24

1719 18 19 1919

27

4346

51

7 7 8 76

Anglos Blacks Hispanics Asians/Others

PE

RC

EN

T O

F R

ES

PO

ND

EN

TS

ETHNICITY BY AGE IN HARRIS COUNTY (U.S. CENSUS, 2010)

SOURCE: US CENSUS. CLASSIFICATIONS BASED ON TEXAS STATE DATA CENTER CONVENTIONS.

ASSESSMENTS OF ETHNIC RELATIONS IN THE HOUSTON AREA, BY ETHNICITY (1992-2012)

1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

60

65

21

5451

48

53

14

40

27

33 33

38

27

49

39 35

41

48

Anglos

Blacks

Latinos

YEAR OF SURVEY

PE

RC

EN

T G

IVIN

G P

OS

ITIV

E R

AT

ING

S

Percent rating "the relations among ethnic groups in the Houston area" as either "excellent" or "good."

r= +.186, p=.000

r= +.133, p=.000

r= +.096, p=.000

Anglos

Latinos

Blacks

SUPPORT FOR “ILLEGAL” IMMIGRANTS (2008-2012)

2008 2010 2012 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2010 20120

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

43

51

6366

6466

7174

83 82

Chart TitleThe influx of undocumented immigrants is not a "very seri-ous" problem for the city.

Favor: "Granting illegal immigrants in the U.S. a path to legal citizenship, if they speak English and have no criminal record."

Favor: "Allowing the children of undocu-mented immigrants to become U.S. citizens, if graduated from college or served in military."(r=.045, p=.001) (r=.028, p=.008)

INTERETHNIC ROMANTIC RELATIONSHIPS BY AGE, ANGLOS ONLY (2007 AND 2011, COMBINED)

AGES 18-29 AGES 30-39 AGES 40-49 AGES 50-59 AGES 60-69 AGES 70-930

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

4042

49

60

72

87

57 58

50

39

28

13

No Yes

PE

RC

EN

T O

F R

ES

PO

ND

EN

TS

“Have you ever been in a romantic rela-tionship with someone who was not An-glo?” (Anglo respondents only.)

ETHNIC ATTITUDES BY AGE AMONG ANGLOS (2006-2011, COMBINED)

Houston's increasing diver-sity will eventually become a source of great strength for

the city.

The increasing immigration into this country today

mostly strengthens Ameri-can culture.

The influx of undocumented immigrants is NOT a 'very serious' problem for Hous-

ton.

Favor: Granting illegal immi-grants a path to legal citi-

zenship, if speak English and no criminal record.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

66

60

53

7370

47 45

6266

46

35

59

53

36 36

53

Ages 18-29 Ages 30-44 Ages 45-59 Ages 60-93

PE

RC

EN

T A

GR

EE

ING

IN E

AC

H A

GE

-GR

OU

P

THE NEW PRO-GROWTH AGENDA

To prosper in the high-technology, knowledge-based, worldwide economy, this city (and nation) will need to nurture a far more educated workforce and fashion policies to reduce the growing inequalities and prevent the rise of a new urban underclass.

To attract the most innovative companies and talented individuals, Houston will need to grow into a more environmentally and aes- thetically appealing urban destination, and develop the research centers that will fuel the engines of growth in the new economy.

If this region is to flourish in the years ahead, it will need to develop into a much more unified and inclusive multiethnic society, in which equality of opportunity is truly made available to all citizens and all of its communities are empowered to participate as full partners in shaping the Houston future.

CONTACT US FOR MOREINFORMATION:

THE KINDER INSTITUTE FOR URBAN RESEARCH AT RICE UNIVERSITYPROFESSORS STEPHEN KLINEBERG AND MICHAEL EMERSON,

CO-DIRECTORS

www.kinder.rice.edukinder@rice.edu713-348-4132