htau security incident & casualties report nov2015 finalb

A Study of Attacks by Armed Groups in Syria

and Syrian Civilians Casualties in 2015

NGO Forum - Humanitarian Trends Analysis Unit

Antakya, Turkey,

November 2015

NGO Forum Humanitarian Trends Analysis Unit page 2

For more information on this report contact:

NGO Forum HTAU Coordinator

Email: [email protected]

Table of Contents Table of Contents ............................................................................................................................ 2

Executive Summary ........................................................................................................................ 3

Methodology ................................................................................................................................... 4

Security Incidents or Attacks by Armed Groups in Syria............................................................... 5

Table 1: Security incidents by armed group by month: Jan-Oct 2015 ....................................... 6

Chart 1: Security incidents by armed group: Jan-Oct 2015 ........................................................ 6

Chart 2: Security incidents by month: Jan-Oct 2015 .................................................................. 7

Chart 3: Security incidents by armed group: Jan-Oct 2015 ........................................................ 7

Chart 4: Security incidents by governorate: Jan-Oct. 2015 ........................................................ 8

Chart 5: Security incidents by month: Jan-Oct. 2015 ................................................................. 9

Chart 6: Security incidents by month by most active governorate: Jan-Oct. 2015..................... 9

Civilians Casualties ....................................................................................................................... 10

Table 2: Civilian death toll by armed group: Jan. – Oct. 2015 ................................................. 10

Chart 7: Civilian deaths by armed group: Jan. – Oct. 2015 ...................................................... 11

Chart 8: Civilian deaths by armed group by month: Jan. – Oct. 2015 ...................................... 11

Chart 9: Civilian deaths by month: Jan. – Oct. 2015 ............................................................... 12

Women and children killed ........................................................................................................... 13

Chart 10: Women and children killed by armed group: Jan– Oct. 2015 .................................. 13

Chart 11: Women and children killed by month: Jan. – Oct. 2015 .......................................... 14

Death by Torture ........................................................................................................................... 14

Chart 12: Syrians tortured to death by armed group: Jan. – Oct. 2015 .................................... 14

Summary: ...................................................................................................................................... 15

Appendix A: Raw Data on Security Incidents and Civilians Killed ............................................. 17

Table 3: Number of Security Incidents by Governorate, Jan. to Oct. 2015 .............................. 17

Table 4: Civilians, Women & Children Killed & Syrians Killed Torture, Dec.2014-Oct.2015

................................................................................................................................................... 18

mailto:[email protected]


Executive Summary The Syrian armed conflict continues to have a devastating impact in civilians in Syria after

almost five years of intense fighting. However, the violence has not affected all parts of Syria

equally – some areas have had more incessant, high-pitched fighting than others, with a

concomitant impact on civilians trying to survive in those areas. Furthermore, narratives by the

armed groups about their targets, combined with massive efforts to limit access to certain regions

by some access groups, create a confusing picture of who is being attacked and who is being

killed. Of special concern is the killing of civilians. Reliable data on who is responsible for

attacks is hard to find and often criticized as not being methodological sound.

Ensuring the protection of civilians requires understanding which armed groups are causing the

most harm to civilians and which civilians are most at risk. Such information can support

prevention and advocacy efforts, to try to change the actions by armed groups to reduce the

harmful impact on civilians, among other actions.

In response to the lack of information on which armed groups are causing the most harm to

civilians, this study seeks to answer two key questions using reliable evidence:

Which groups of people are more likely to be at risk of death and injury from direct

violence by armed groups in the Syrian conflict?

Which armed groups are causing the most harm to civilians?

For the purposes of this study we define harm to civilians1 as the risk of death or injury from

direct violence by armed groups. This study uses secondary data from a reliable security source

and the Syrian Network on Human Rights. The data is analyzed to identify trends over time, by

governorate and by armed group. Findings from the two data sets parallel each other closely,

increasing the reliability of findings.

A summary of findings shows that:

It is clear that the main armed group responsible for initiating security incidents and

causing civilian casualties is the Government of Syria, with 72% of all security incidents,

77% of civilians killed and 81% of women and children killed.

The many opposition armed groups are responsible for the next largest number of

security incidents (14%), but only 7% of civilian casualties.

ISIS initiated relatively fewer security incidents (7%), but was responsible for 10% of all

civilian deaths.

Coalition forces accounted for 3% of security incidents and 1% of civilian casualties.

1 There may be many other sources or types of harm to civilians in the Syrian conflict, such as destruction of

infrastructure, besiegement, or limitations on movement. One of the most significant and visible is the indirect

sources of harm that exist in besieged areas, which leads to the lack of food, water, and health care to civilians, often

over long periods of time. This can also lead to death, disease and other physical forms of harm. Unfortunately, in

the Syrian conflict, there is no reliable data on the impact of indirect forms of harm to civilians, and which groups

are committing those forms of harm the most. Future studies such examine the varying degrees of harm to civilians:

direct harm from attacks, indirect from lack of access to survival needs (food, water, healthcare), or destruction of

water, sewage, electricity, health or other infrastructure, or imposition of strict social controls, such as movement or

employment by certain groups of people, etc.


Regarding torture, the GOS is responsible for the vast majority (97.0%) of the deaths by

torture during this period, with an average of 79 people killed per month.

The peak time for security incidents was July, August, September and October 2015.

The peak months for civilian casualties was April, May, June and October 2015, while

the peak month for women and children killed was August.

Geographically, the highest number of attacks occurred in Rural Damascus governorate

(19%), followed by Aleppo (17%), Dara (10%), and Idleb (10%). Very few security

incidents occurred in Tartous, As Sweida, Damascus, Ar Raqqa and Der E Zor

governorates, reflecting GOS targeting priorities and areas of support for the GOS.

GOS has not targeted ISIS very much over the past year (and does not generally fight

Kurdish forces), instead prioritizing its fight against OAGs.

There are clear differences between the number of security incidents by specific armed

groups and the impact on civilians. Some armed groups cause much more harm to

civilians (killed), than other armed groups.

Most of the security incidents caused by GOS are in specific governorates, such as Rural

Damascus, Idleb and Aleppo, where opposition armed groups operate.

Civilian populations most at risk are those living in areas controlled by opposition groups

and targeted by GOS.

These findings show both the military capabilities of the various groups and their ability

to initiate armed attacks, as well as their respect for the protection of civilian life and

international humanitarian law.

All of these findings may support arguments for responsibility of specific armed groups,

like the GOS, GOR and ISIS, to violations of international human rights and

humanitarian law, and provide insight for identifying and protecting civilian groups that

are at risk for attacks by armed groups.

Methodology This study uses secondary data from a reliable security source and the Syrian Network on

Human Rights. The data is analyzed to identify trends over time, by governorate and by armed

group. Findings from the two data sets parallel each other closely, increasing the reliability of

findings. The data on security incidents comes from the reliable security source and consists of

46,601 records of actions that occurred in Syria from January 1 to October 31, 2015. Each

security incident is defined as any act of violence, whether verbal, physical, military or criminal,

per hour. For example, if five air attacks occur on a village over 5 hours, then there are 5

separate security incidents. However, it does not count individual bombs: during that one hour

period multiple bombs could be dropped. A security incident usually is an attack by an armed

group, usually against another armed group or at a specific location. Security incidents include

any form of violence, such as small arms fire, sniping, mortars, artillery, missiles, and air attacks,

as well as armed group actions which impact civilians, such as conscription drives or search and

arrest operations. Many security incidents involve multiple acts, such as several barrel bombs or

artillery or mortar shells, or an offensive by an armed group in specific location. Each security

incident record includes data on date, time, place, incident narrative, and initiating actor. Data is

collected directly from sources in Syria.


The data on civilian casualties is from the Syrian Network for Human Rights (SNHR), which

publishes monthly reports on deaths in Syria.2 SNHR is a non-partisan human rights

organization based in London that documents human rights violations in Syria. SNHR has a

network of activists who collect and verify data throughout Syria. Reports of persons killed in

Syria are confirmed through local sources, including Syrian hospitals, and checked for

duplication. Each record include name, place of birth, place of death, cause of death, whether

the person was a civilian or fighter, and armed group that caused the death.3 SNHR monthly

reports included data on total people killed, fighters killed, civilians killed, women killed,

children killed, and people killed by torture.

In its analysis, the HTAU found several problems with the SNHR data on total people killed,

fighters killed and civilians killed – ideally the number of fighters and civilians killed should

equal the total number of people killed, but often they don’t match in the SNHR reports. For that

reason, in this report, the HTAU only analyzes data on civilians killed, women killed, children

killed, and people killed by torture. Also, it is unclear how many men are killed, and which are

civilians versus fighters. The overall numbers of fighters killed is low, but SNHR acknowledges

the difficulty of reporting on fighters killed. While there are reliability problems with some of

the SNHR data, it is the best there is on casualties in Syria. The NGO Forum and HTAU would

like to thank the security organization and SNHR for use of this data.

Security Incidents or Attacks by Armed Groups in Syria Analysis of security incidents – basically attacks by armed groups – in Syria helps to identify

which armed groups are committing the majority of the attacks, where the attacks are taking

place, and whether changes in the attacks occur over time. The data on security incidents comes

from the reliable security source and consists of 46,601 records of actions that occurred in Syria

from January 1 to October 31, 2015. Each security incident is an attack by an armed group

against using any form of violence, but typically air attacks, artillery, mortars, missiles, IEDs, or

small arms fire. Many security incidents involve multiple acts, such as several barrel bombs or

an offensive by an armed group in specific location. Each security incident record includes data

on date, time, place, incident narrative, and initiating actor.

One of the key questions for this study is which armed group is committing most of the security

incidents or attacks. The data below addresses that question. In this table, several armed groups

have been grouped together due to their coordination on the battle field: Hezbollah and National

Defense Forces4 were combined under the title of GOS allies; GOS, GOR, and GOS allies are

combined under GOS + allies. All OAGs, including Ahrar al Sham, Hazm Movement, Free

Syria Army, Jayesh al Fateh, Jabhat al Nusra, and others, are combined under opposition armed

groups (OAGs); and all Kurdish groups are combined under YPG, Kurdish People’s Protection

Units.

In this analysis we can see the following patterns for armed group attacks in Syria. The total

number of security incidents or attacks was 46,601 from January 1 to October 31, 2015. It

should be noted that the Government of Russia (GOR) started its attacks in Syria on Sept. 30.

2 Source: http://sn4hr.org/blog/category/report/monthly-reports/victims-death-toll/ 3 The SNHR methodology can be found at http://sn4hr.org/public_html/wp-

content/pdf/english/SNHR%20Methodology.pdf 4 There were only 18 incidents attributed to these two groups over 10 months.

http://sn4hr.org/blog/category/report/monthly-reports/victims-death-toll/

http://sn4hr.org/public_html/wp-content/pdf/english/SNHR%20Methodology.pdf

http://sn4hr.org/public_html/wp-content/pdf/english/SNHR%20Methodology.pdf


Attacks by GOR and GOS allies, including Hezbollah, NDF and Iranian militias, increased

significantly in October 2015.

The GOS with its allies initiated 33,796 (72.5%) out of the total of 46,601 events

All the OAGs combined initiated 6.505 attacks, for 14.0% of all attacks.

ISIS started 3,271 attacks, or 7.0%

Coalition forces initiated 1,270 attacks, or 2.7%,

All other armed groups combined started 1,759 attacks, for 3.8% of the total. This

includes local ethnic militias, YPG, unknown groups, other groups, and criminal groups.

Table 1: Security incidents by armed group by month: Jan-Oct 2015 Armed group Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Total %

GOS 2098 2815 3060 3272 2741 3275 4021 4003 3440 4038 33083 71.0%

GOR\GOS 15 582 695 1.5%

GOS allies 3 1 2 5 7 18 0.0%

GOS + allies 2101 2815 3061 3274 2746 3282 4021 4003 3455 4620 33796 72.5%

OAGs

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ISIS 151 138 249 339 359 340 367 518 387 389 3271 7.0%

YPG Kurdish 137 197 107 113 167 205 141 139 86 58 1362 2.9%

Coalition forces 158 138 85 88 111 116 200 155 123 87 1270 2.7%

Unknown groups 2 12 9 2 6 13 41 43 29 61 222 0.5%

Other groups 39 5 9 11 5 3 2 4 6 6 90 0.2%

Criminal groups 2 11 1 6 4 8 7 13 54 0.1%

Local ethnic militias 2 5 5 17 2 31 0.1%

Total = 2923 3656 3926 4467 4021 4621 5547 5807 4903 6174 46601

Chart 1: Security incidents by armed group: Jan-Oct 2015

This data on security incidents also shows trends over time and by armed group. The group that

initiated the highest number of attacks or security incidents during this period is the GOS, with

71% of all attacks. Overall, the months with the highest number of security incidents were July,

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August and October 2015, principally caused by the increase in attacks by GOS forces, with a

small increase by OAGs in that period. In the general other groups have not increased their

attacks much over the past 10 months. The line chart of incidents by armed groups clearly shows

the role of GOS forces in effecting the intensity of fighting in Syria. Many observers note that

the winter months have fewer attacks due the inability for GOS air forces to operate in poor

weather.

Chart 2: Security incidents by month: Jan-Oct 2015

Chart 3: Security incidents by armed group: Jan-Oct 2015

As seen in the chart below, clear patterns exist for attacks by governorate over time.

The highest number of attacks, 8,863, occurred in Rural Damascus governorate, for

19.2% of the total attacks.

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Aleppo governorate had 7,961 (17.3%) attacks.

Dar’a governorate had 4,386 (9.5%) attacks.

Idleb governorate had 4,099 (8.9%) attacks.

Fewer attacks occurred in other governorates. Analyzing across variables, we can see that the

majority of security incidents are conducted by GOS forces in governorates with active

opposition armed groups. Governorates with low security incident rates include those areas with

primarily GOS supporters, such as Tartous, with its large Alawite population that is supportive of

the GOS; As-Sweida with the large Druze population that has been relatively neutral in the

armed conflict to date; and Damascus, with various ethnic groups and socio-economic classes,

that support the GOS.

Strikingly, very few GOS attacks occurred in Ar-Raqqa (614 or 1.3%) or Deir Ez Zor (2,130 or

4.6%) against ISIS targets. It should be noted that the vast majority of GOS targets are OAGs in

Rural Damascus, Aleppo, Idleb, Hama and Lattakia governorates. There are few changes in the

frequency of security incidents started by OAGs, with a slow increase from 335 incidents in

January to a peak of 938 in October. Finally, Kurdish areas, like Al Hasakeh Governorate, have

had a relatively low level of security incidents over the past ten months; those attacks are mainly

initiated by ISIS or YPG.

Chart 4: Security incidents by governorate: Jan-Oct. 2015

Looking at the data on security incidents by governorate by month for the seven most active

Syrian governorates, we can see trends for attacks over time. Increased attacks occurred in Rural

Damascus, Aleppo, Dara, Hama, Lattakia and Homs in recent months. In October, the only

governorate to have fewer attacaks was Idleb. There was relatively little change in the frequency

of security incidents in other governorates, such as Tartous, Ar Raqqa, As-Sweida, Damascus

and Deir Ez Zor. Changes in the frequency of attacks by governorate most closely parallel

changing military priorities of the armed groups, especially the GOS and its allies.

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Chart 5: Security incidents by month: Jan-Oct. 2015

Chart 6: Security incidents by month by most active governorate: Jan-Oct. 2015

In summary, we can see that the armed group that has initiated the vast majority of security

incidents is the GOS. Furthermore, the GOS has initiated the majority of these incidents in Rural

Damascus, Aleppo, Idleb and Dara governorates. OAGs have initiated some security incidents

as well, such as those that led to the capture of areas in southern Idleb in July and August 2015.

The peak period of security incidents or attacks in 2015 so far has been July, August, September

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RURAL DAMASCUS ALEPPO DAR'A IDLEB HAMA LATTAKIA HOMS


and October. In October 2015, a spike in attacks occurred, with offensives by GOS and its allies

in Rural Damascus, Aleppo, Dara, Hama, Lattakia and Homs areas, and corresponding

retaliatory attacks by OAGs in those same areas, while ISIS has launched attacks in Aleppo and

Der Ez Zor governorates, taking advantage of the preoccupation of the GOS and OAGs in

fighting each other. Civilians are safer from direct violence from the armed conflict in Kurdish,

ISIS and GOS areas, than in OAG-controlled areas

Civilians Casualties Building on the security incident analysis, we can see trends in the impact of the Syrian armed

conflict on civilian populations using human rights data. For example the Syrian Network on

Human Rights (SNHR) publishes a monthly report on the number of people killed in Syria, with

a breakdown by total people killed, fighters killed, civilians killed, women killed, children killed,

and people killed using torture, by armed group.5 While there are some problems with the data

reliability (see Methodology), it shows critical trends that are informative for humanitarian

programming and advocacy. We summarize this data in this section.

One issue that must be considered when looking at any human rights data from Syria is the

problem of access to information in some parts of Syria: various sources have noted the extreme

difficulties in getting reliable information about human rights violations in GOS and ISIS areas.

For example, it is well known that there is limited access for conflict and human rights reporting

in GOS and ISIS areas. Therefore, it is likely that casualties in GOS and ISIS areas are actually

higher than reported here. There may also be bias towards some of the opposition groups, such

as OAGs and JAN, by SNHR staff, but even if there is some bias, the overall numbers show a

clear pattern that the main actor responsible for civilian deaths is the GOS.

Table 2: Civilian death toll by armed group: Jan. – Oct. 2015

Armed Group Jan. Feb. March April May June July Aug. Sept Oct. total percent

GOS 883 1044 1029 1519 1381 1072 966 1213 795 1069 10971 77.3%

ISIS 59 34 241 68 197 451 86 117 116 53 1422 10.0%

OAGs 116 91 84 82 102 112 71 104 131 45 938 6.6%

Unknown group 82 80 37 42 21 24 71 25 86 50 518 3.6%

Coalition forces 4 6 3 0 68 21 23 14 4 1 144 1.0%

JAN 5 5 16 10 4 39 6 6 4 1 96 0.7%

YPG Kurdish 13 16 1 3 14 20 13 14 7 10 111 0.8%

totals = 1162 1276 1411 1724 1787 1739 1236 1493 1143 1229 14200 100%

Analyzing this data from SNHR, we can identify trends in civilian deaths by armed group and by

month.

5 Source for data: http://sn4hr.org/blog/category/report/monthly-reports/victims-death-toll/. There is some

imprecision in the definitions in the SNHR data for the various types of people killed: all people, fighters, civilians,

women and children. For example, it appears that SNHR assumes that all women and children are civilians, while

some could be fighters.



Most notably, the highest number of civilian deaths were caused by GOS actions: of the

14,200 total deaths, 10,971 (77.3%) were GOS initiated. The number of Syrian civilians

killed by the GOS is three times higher than all other groups combined (10,971 to 3,229).

ISIS was responsible for 1,422 (10%) of all civilian deaths during that period,

OAGs were responsible for 938 (6.6%) of all civilian deaths.

Coalition forces, YPG and JAN caused very few civilian deaths: 144 (1%); 111 (0.8%);

and 96 (0.7%) respectively.

Looking at trends over time, the highest civilian death rates have been for April, May and June

2015, with an average of 1,750 deaths for each of those months, much higher than average of

1,420 per month for the ten month period. See Appendix E for the raw data for this analysis.

Chart 7: Civilian deaths by armed group: Jan. – Oct. 2015

Chart 8: Civilian deaths by armed group by month: Jan. – Oct. 2015

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The data on civilian deaths by armed group by month is informative as well. Overall, the peak

months for civilian deaths were April (n=1,724), May (n=1,787) and June (n=1,739). Civilian

deaths caused by GOS increased in April, May and August, while ISIS had an increase in June.

However, it is unclear why increased civilian casualties took place those months: whether a more

intentional campaign to target civilians or collateral damage from other targeting. It should be

noted that the months with the highest numbers of security incidents by the GOS were June, July

and August – so there is some discrepancy between the number of GOS-initiated security

incidents and months with the most GOS-related civilian casualties. ISIS had an increase to 451

civilians killed in June, above the average of 144 per month for that group. It should be noted

that ISIS may be killing civilians separately from security incidents: civilian deaths by ISIS are

more likely through executions and other forms of social control, than security incidents related

to the armed conflict. All other armed groups tracked by the SNHR data show low and stable

rates of civilians being killed.

Chart 9: Civilian deaths by month: Jan. – Oct. 2015

The trend over time shows higher rates of civilian deaths in Syria during April to June, mainly

caused by higher rates of GOS and, to a lesser extent, ISIS killings during those months.

In summary, the high numbers of civilians killed by the GOS are significant and alarming. Most

other armed groups have relatively low and stable numbers of civilians killed over these ten

months.6 Overall, this data provides evidence that civilians are not being systematically

protected from armed attacks by armed groups, that large numbers of civilians are direct victims

of such armed attacks, and that one armed group (the GOS) causes many more civilian casualties

than other armed groups. Explaining the large number of civilian deaths by GOS attacks over

time as just being accidental, incidental or unintentional does not satisfactorily explain why so

6 While we strongly prefer that no civilians die in the Syrian armed conflict, we recognize that civilian deaths do

occur in wartime. So, small numbers can be accepted as part of war. However, when large numbers are

continuously killed by one armed group, it is necessary to identify those deaths as human rights violations and

advocate for change in the armed group’s behavior.

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many civilians being killed each month. While this analysis highlights the responsibility of GOS

actions, other armed groups are also responsible for civilian deaths.

Women and children killed The trends pertaining to women and children killed by armed groups is informative as well, and

parallel the data on total civilian deaths, in terms of which armed groups are causing the most

death and increases in deaths during certain periods. The peak period for deaths for Syrian

women and children was April to August 2015. Unfortunately, there is not reliable data on the

number of men killed, whether the men killed are fighters or civilians, the armed groups causing

those deaths, or the way they are killed.

The chart below shows that the GOS is main actor responsible for these deaths, causing 3,951

(80.7%) of the 4,896 deaths of women and children during this 10 month period. OAGs were

responsible for 389 of these deaths (7.9%) and ISIS 270 deaths (5.5%), with fewer deaths for

women and children attributed to other groups.

Chart 10: Women and children killed by armed group: Jan– Oct. 2015

The data also shows a trend towards more women and children being killed during the months of

April to August, with the peak in August 2015. Most of the variation in August is due to

changes in GOS targeting and killing of women and children, with 591 (86.9%) of the 680

women and children killed in August killed by GOS actions. In general, the rates of women and

children killed parallel the trends on all civilians killed: most are killed by GOS actions and are

killed during the summer months. It is clear that some armed groups are not systematically

protecting women and children from their armed attacks.

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Chart 11: Women and children killed by month: Jan. – Oct. 2015

Death by Torture Finally, the data on Syrians tortured to death by armed group also shows that the main group

responsible is the GOS. Of the 817 Syrians tortured to death during this ten month period, 790

(96.7%) were tortured to death by GOS, with an average of 79 people killed by torture by the

GOS per month. The peak months for people killed by the GOS by torture were March, April

and October, with 134, 104 and 99 people killed respectively. Again, the source for this data on

civilians, women, and children killed, and Syrian tortured to death is the Syrian Network on

Human Rights. It is likely that the number of people tortured to death by ISIS may be higher,

given anecdotal reporting, but reliable data is not available due to lack of access to ISIS areas.

Chart 12: Syrians tortured to death by armed group: Jan. – Oct. 2015

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Summary: The findings of this study show clear trends and patterns for security incidents or attacks by

armed groups and corresponding civilian casualties in Syria during the period of January to

October 2015. It is clear from the data presented in this study that the armed group responsible

for initiating the greatest number of security incidents and – as a result – for causing the greatest

number of civilian casualties is the Government of Syria, with 72.5% of all security incidents,

77.3% of civilians killed, and 80.7% of women and children killed.

The total attacks attributed collectively to the many opposition armed groups make them

responsible for the next largest number of security incidents (14%), but only 6.6% of civilian

casualties. ISIS initiated relatively few security incidents (7%), but was responsible for 10% of

all civilian deaths.

Coalition forces accounted for 2.7% of security incidents or 1% of civilian casualties. Regarding

torture, the GOS is responsible for the vast majority (97.0%) of the deaths by torture during this

period, with an average of 79 people killed per month.

The peak time for security incidents has been July, August, September and October of 2015.

The peak months for civilian casualties was April, May, June and October 2015, while the peak

month for women and children killed was August.

Geographically, the highest number of attacks occurred in Rural Damascus governorate (19.2%),

followed by Aleppo (17.3%), Dara (9.5%), and Idleb (8.9%). Very few security incidents

occurred in Tartous, As Sweida, Damascus, Ar Raqqa and Der E Zor governorates, reflecting

GOS targeting priorities and its areas of support. GOS has targeted ISIS very little over the past

year (and does not generally fight Kurdish forces), instead prioritizing its fight against OAGs.

An analysis of both security incidents and civilians killed provides more insight into the pattern

of attacks and civilian casualties. If we divide the number of civilians killed by the number of

security incidents we get a ratio of civilian deaths to attacks:

For the GOS, there is one civilian killed for every 3.02 security incidents, on average

(12,020 civilians killed, 33,080 security incidents).

For ISIS, the ratio of civilians killed is higher, at 2.30, but that may be due to civilians

being killed by ISIS in actions other than security incidents (i.e., by directly killing

civilians who break ISIS rules).

For OAGs, including JAN, there is a ratio of 1 civilian killed for each 6.93 attacks.

Coalition forces have a ratio of 8.82.

YPG Kurdish forces have a ratio of 12.27.

Looking at the data this way, we find that ISIS has the highest ratio of civilians killed per

security incident, followed closely by GOS, then OAGs, coalition forces, and Kurdish YPG. In

effect, the lower the ratio, the more harm done to civilians by armed groups in their daily

military actions (specifically civilian deaths per security incidents initiated by armed group).

In summary, the data from the security organization and SNHR support a number of findings.

1. There are clear differences between the number of security incidents by specific armed

groups and the impact on civilians. Some armed groups cause much more harm to

civilians (killed), than other armed groups.


2. The GOS has both the most security incidents and responsibility for deaths of civilians.

3. From the security incident reports, we can see that most of the security incidents caused

by GOS are in specific governorates, such as Rural Damascus, Idleb and Aleppo, where

opposition armed groups operate – not ISIS areas. When we combine this finding with

civilian death data, we can determine that the civilian populations most at risk are those

living in areas controlled by opposition groups and targeted by GOS.

4. While this analysis didn’t specifically look at what GOS-initiated security incidents cause

the most harm (deaths and injuries) to civilians, it appears from the security data that

GOS air attacks are the most frequent GOS tactic that causes civilian harm.

5. These findings show both the military capabilities of the various groups and their ability

to initiate armed attacks, as well as their relative respect for the protection of civilian life

and international humanitarian law.

These findings may support arguments for responsibility of specific armed groups, like the GOS,

for violations of international human rights and humanitarian law, and provide insight for

identifying and protecting civilian groups that are at risk for attacks by armed groups.


Appendix A: Raw Data on Security Incidents and Civilians Killed

Table 3: Number of Security Incidents by Governorate, Jan. to Oct. 2015

Governorate Jan Feb Mar April May June July Aug Sept Oct Total %

Rural Damascus 521 727 621 624 615 790 1232 1206 1210 1317 8863 19.2%

Aleppo 606 707 681 932 782 817 918 975 690 853 7961 17.3%

Dar'a 458 540 658 552 315 530 538 325 181 289 4386 9.5%

Idleb 179 207 393 555 543 434 459 659 402 268 4099 8.9%

Lattakia 184 236 322 355 291 348 359 420 396 723 3634 7.9%

Hama 208 269 357 408 307 317 334 555 340 520 3615 7.9%

Homs 191 285 210 230 266 306 447 411 436 717 3499 7.6%

Quneitra 127 177 195 179 125 187 311 368 446 574 2689 5.8%

Al-Hasakeh 155 225 251 303 335 228 375 208 134 184 2398 5.2%

Deir-Ez-Zor 191 179 178 193 245 217 215 247 244 221 2130 4.6%

Damascus 67 69 40 110 119 113 155 206 256 268 1403 3.0%

As-Sweida 6 3 10 6 26 113 125 168 107 156 720 1.6%

Ar-Raqqa 30 32 10 20 52 221 79 56 51 63 614 1.3%

Tartous 3 10 21 34 0.1%

Grand Total 2923 3656 3926 4467 4021 4621 5547 5807 4903 6174 46045

Table 4: Civilians, Women & Children Killed & Syrians Killed Torture, Dec.2014-Oct.2015 Armed group Dec. 2014 January February March

civilians women children tortured civilians women children tortured civilians women children tortured civilians women children tortured

GOS 1049 105 203 97 883 54 207 64 1044 123 139 74 1029 136 147 134

PYD Kurdish 7 1 2 1 13 0 1 1 16 0 8 1 1 0 0 0

ISIL 72 4 4 0 59 2 2 3 34 0 1 1 241 22 33 1

JAN 17 2 2 0 5 2 0 0 5 0 0 2 16 3 1 1

OAG 41 3 7 0 116 23 21 0 91 18 23 1 84 6 15 0

Coalition forces 0 0 0 0 4 0 0 0 6 3 0 0 3 1 2 0

Unknown group 44 1 11 0 82 8 9 0 80 9 14 0 37 3 7 0

Armed group April May June

civilians women children tortured civilians women children tortured civilians women children tortured

GOS 1519 192 269 104 1381 186 236 82 1072 124 218 56

PYD Kurdish 3 0 0 0 14 4 4 0 20 2 4 0

ISIL 68 2 2 1 197 8 9 0 451 85 28 1

JAN 10 1 2 3 4 0 1 1 39 na 3 0

OAG 82 14 21 0 102 15 31 1 112 28 25 0

Coalition forces 0 0 0 0 68 19 32 0 21 3 11 0

Unknown group 42 6 10 0 21 4 5 0 24 1 7 0

Armed group July August Sept October

civilians women children tortured civilians women children tortured civilians women children tortured civilians women children tortured

GOS 966 209 286 56 1213 289 302 77 795 189 204 44 1069 197 244 99

PYD Kurdish 86 17 14 0 117 8 15 1 116 10 9 0 53 0 3 1

ISIL 71 9 13 0 104 18 26 1 131 14 45 1 45 11 13 3

JAN 71 3 8 0 25 4 3 0 86 11 7 0 50 9 8 0

OAG 23 1 7 0 14 1 6 0 4 2 1 0 1 0 0 0

Coalition forces 6 1 4 0 6 2 0 1 4 1 2 0 1 1 0 0

Unknown group 13 0 1 0 14 3 3 0 7 0 2 1 10 2 3 0

Source: http://sn4hr.org/blog/category/report/monthly-reports/victims-death-toll/


htau security incident & casualties report nov2015 finalb

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