hsbc china manufacturing pmi - nov 2014
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8/10/2019 Hsbc China Manufacturing Pmi - Nov 2014
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HSBC Purchasing Managers’ Index™ Press Release Embargoed until: 09:45 (Beijing) 1 December 2014
HSBC China Manufacturing PMI™ Manufacturing production declines for the first time since May
Summary
November data signalled a further loss of momentum inChina’s manufacturing economy, with output decliningfor the first time since May, albeit marginally. Meanwhile,total new orders increased for the sixth month in a row,though the rate of growth was only modest. Datasuggested that softer client demand from abroad hadpartly dampened overall growth of new work, with newexport orders expanding at the slowest rate in fivemonths. Meanwhile, average input costs declinedsharply, which contributed to a solid reduction of outputcharges.
After adjusting for seasonal factors, the HSBCPurchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) – a compositeindicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot ofoperating conditions in the manufacturing economy – posted the no-change mark of 50.0 in November,unchanged from the earlier flash reading, and signalledthat operating conditions were unchanged from theprevious month. Furthermore, it was the lowest indexreading since May, and contrasted with improvementsin each of the prior five months.
The decline in the headline index was partly driven by a
renewed fall in manufacturing production in November.This was the first time that output had declined in sixmonths, though the rate of contraction was only slight.
Anecdotal evidence suggested that subdued marketconditions and relatively muted client demand led firmsto cut production in November. Meanwhile, total newbusiness increased at a modest pace that was little-changed from October. However, November dataindicated that foreign demand continued to soften, withthe latest expansion of new export business the slowestsince June.
Manufacturing employment in China continued todecline in November. The rate of job shedding wassimilar to that recorded in October and moderate overall.Lower output and reduced staffing levels contributed toan increased amount of backlogged work in November.That said, the rate of accumulation eased since October.
Purchasing activity was unchanged in November,thereby ending a six-month sequence of growth.Manufacturers in China meanwhile decreased theirinventories of both pre- and post-production goods inNovember, with a number of companies attributinglower stocks to reduced production.
Average input costs fell for the fourth month in a row inNovember and at a sharp rate. Average prices chargedmeanwhile declined solidly over the month.
Comment
Commenting on the China Manufacturing PMI™ survey,Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head of
Asian Economic Research at HSBC said:
“ The HSBC China Manufacturing PMI fell to a six-monthlow of 50.0 in the final reading for November, down from50.4 in October and unchanged from the flash reading.Domestic demand expanded at a sluggish pace whilenew export order growth eased to a five-month low.
Disinflationary pressures remain strong while the labourmarket weakened further. Today's data suggest that themanufacturing sector lost momentum and point toweaker economic activity in November. The PBoC'srate cuts, delivered on the 21st November, will help tostabilise property and manufacturing investment in thecoming months. We continue to expect further monetaryand fiscal easing measures to offset downside risks togrowth .”
Key points Moderate increase in total new business...
...while new export order growth slows for secondmonth running
Input costs and output charges both fall at markedrates
Historical Overview
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Increasing rate of contraction
Increasing rate of growth50 = no change on previous month, S.Adj.
HSBC China Manufacturing PMI
Sources: Markit, HSBC.
The December HSBC Flash China ManufacturingPMI is due for release 16 th December 2014.For all forthcoming PMI release dates please see
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For further information, please contact:
HSBC
Hongbin Qu, Chief Economist, China & Co-Head Diana Mao, Head of Communications, (China)of Asian Economic Research Telephone +86-21-3888-1251Telephone +852-2822-2025 Email [email protected] [email protected]
Markit
Annabel Fiddes, Economist Joanna Vickers, Corporate CommunicationsTelephone +44-1491-461-010 Telephone +44-207-260-2234Email [email protected] Email [email protected]
Notes to Editors:
The HSBC China Report on Manufacturing is based on data compiled from monthly replies to questionnaires sent topurchasing executives in over 420 manufacturing companies. The panel is stratified geographically and by StandardIndustrial Classification (SIC) group, based on industry contribution to Chinese GDP. Survey responses reflect thechange, if any, in the current month compared to the previous month based on data collected mid-month. For each ofthe indicators the ‘Report’ shows the percentage reporting each response, the net difference between the number ofhigher/better responses and lower/worse responses, and the ‘diffusion’ index. This index is the sum of the positiveresponses plus a half of those responding ‘the same’. The Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™ ) is a composite index based on five of the individual indexes with thefollowing weights: New Orders - 0.3, Output - 0.25, Employment - 0.2, Suppliers’ Delivery Times - 0.15, Stock of ItemsPurchased - 0.1, with the Delivery Times index inverted so that it moves in a comparable direction.Diffusion indexes have the properties of leading indicators and are convenient summary measures showing theprevailing direction of change. An index reading above 50 indicates an overall increase in that variable, below 50 anoverall decrease.
Markit do not revise underlying survey data after first publication, but seasonal adjustment factors may be revised fromtime to time as appropriate which will affect the seasonally adjusted data series. Historical data relating to theunderlying (unadjusted) numbers, first published seasonally adjusted series and subsequently revised data areavailable to subscribers from Markit. Please contact [email protected] .
HSBC:
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About Markit:
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About PMI:
Purchasing Managers’ Index™ (PMI™) surveys are now available for 32 countries and also for key regions includingthe Eurozone. They are the most closely-watched business surveys in the world, favoured by central banks, financialmarkets and business decision makers for their ability to provide up-to-date, accurate and often unique monthlyindicators of economic trends. To learn more go to www.markit.com/economics
The intellectual property rights to the HSBC China Manufacturing PM I ™ provided herein are owned b y orlicensed to Markit Economics Limited. Any unauthorised use, including but not limited to copying, distributing,transmitting or otherwise of any data appearing is not permitted without Markit’s prior consent. Markit shallnot have any liability, duty or obligation for or relating to the content or information (“data”) contained herein,any errors, inaccuracies, omissions or delays in the data, or for any actions taken in reliance thereon. In noevent shall Markit be liable for any special, incidental, or consequential damages, arising out of the use of thedata. Purchas ing Managers ' Index ™ and PM I ™ are either registered trade marks of Markit Economics Limitedor licensed to Markit Economics Limited. HSBC use the above marks under license. Markit is a registered trademark of Markit Group Limited.