How to think about the next

5-10 years of the Federal

presence in Hampton Roads

Craig Quigley

Rear Admiral, U.S. Navy (Ret.)

Executive Director

BACKGROUND

History of HRMFFA

Views/predictions are mine alone

Sequester/FY2016 budget/BRAC

Trend lines

Shift to the Pacific (slowly)

Smaller force (Army and Marine Corps)

Navy and Air Force dominant?

NAVY

2/3 of all regional Federal spending!

Aircraft carriers – recent change

Oceana/Fentress Now and F-35

Special Ops

Riverine

Ships Number & type

BRAC?

Long-term Less/older hardware, less people

AIR FORCE

BRAC?

LOTS of investment in Langley!

ACC staff drawdown

Encroachment being addressed

What can we attract? Cyber win!

ARMY

BRAC?

Minor uniformed effect from drawdown (94);

civil servants TBD

Various tenant commands

Tied to ultimate decision on Army end

strength

NASA LANGLEY

Work in all areas, but ½ in aeronautics

Budget surprisingly strong

Measurement Systems Lab ($94M)

Advanced composites

Unmanned Systems

COAST GUARD

Slight growth

Largest presence anywhere except DC

Turning the corner on modernization

Budget pressure (DHS)

OTHER

Fort Monroe redevelopment

Ship repair & modernization

Ship building

Unmanned Systems

Sea level rise – BRAC connection

SEQUESTER

Budget Hawks vs Defense Hawks

Politically painless (sort of)

Sequester put off for two years

OCO safety valve; temporary

By early 2016, elections in full swing

What will be the near-term effect?◦ Real property maintenance

◦ Readiness (ship repair, flight hours)

NOW WHAT?

Play to Hampton Roads attributes

Growth areas: Cyber

Unmanned Systems

Renewable energy

Play offense & defense if BRAC

Challenges Busier port

Wind energy?

Oil & gas drilling

BOTTOM LINE

Sector will shrink,

but we’ll still be standing!

QUESTIONS?