www.bsc.es Barcelona, 10 June 2016

Francisco J. Doblas-Reyes

BSC Earth Sciences Department

HPC and data requirements for

weather, climate and air quality

research

1

BSC Earth Sciences Department

What

Environmental modelling and forecasting

How

Develop a capability to model air quality

processes from urban to global and the

impacts on weather, health and ecosystems

Implement climate prediction system for

subseasonal-to-decadal climate prediction

Develop user-oriented services that favour

both technology transfer and adaptation

Use cutting-edge HPC and Big Data

technologies for the efficiency and user-

friendliness of Earth system models

Why

Our strength …

… research …

… operations …

… services …

… high resolution …

Earth system

services

Atmospheric

composition

Computational

Earth sciences

Climate

prediction

2

Air quality operational forecasts

AQF CALIOPE system: daily forecast and evaluation

Daily forecast for meteorology, emissions and air quality: Europe (12km), Iberian Peninsula (4km), Andalusia, Catalonia and Madrid (1km), since 2007

Air quality database

Annual follow up Model RMSE MB r

PM10_KF annual average skill evolution (2011-2014)

Near Real Time evaluation Annual evaluation by air quality stations

Forecast products

N = 278

n MB

n B

n A

n M

n MM

N = 143

n MB

n B

n A

n M

n MM

N = 86

n MB

n B

n A

n M

n MM

N = 49

n MB

n B

n A

n M

n MM

N = 43

n MB

n B

n A

n M

n MM

N = 83

n MB

n B

n A

n M

n MM

N = 124

n MB

n B

n A

n M

n MM

Fon

do

MB r RMSE

Tod

asU

rban

asSu

bu

rban

asR

ura

les

Tráf

cio

Ind

ust

rial

100%

0%0% 0%

0%

44%

42%

10%3%1% 15%

62%

17%

5%1%

99%

1%0%

0% 0%

10%

66%

20%

3%

1%

100%

0%

0%

0%0%

13%

58%

20%

7%

2%

100%

0%0%

0%

31%

59%

6%

4%

0%

100%

0% 0%

0%0%16%

63%

21%0% 0%

100%

0%0%

0%0%15%

55%

23%

6%

1%

99%

1%0%

0%

0%

19%

59%

14%

6% 2%

53%37%

8%1% 1%

31%

52%

9%

6% 1%

41%

41%

16%

2% 0%

23%

58%

16%

2% 0%

40%

46%

12%0% 1%

45%40%

8%

6%1%

Rate of successfully completed simulations (%)

3 www.project-ukko.net

VODAFONE Ciudad conectada

Vodafone.es/ciudad-conectada

CALIOPE Provides air quality forecasts for Vodafone’s smart cities system

CALIOPE Has been awarded the MYGEOSS prize for creating an app with air quality forecasts for European cities

Air quality operational forecasts

4

Barcelona Dust Forecast Center

First specialized WMO Center for mineral dust prediction (since 2014)

Mineral dust operational forecasts

5

Seasonal hurricane predictions

6 www.project-ukko.net

Seasonal wind speed predictions

8 www.project-ukko.net

Vodafone.es/ciudad-conectada

To perform this user-driven research two things are needed

HPC resources - Access to computing (RES, PRACE) - Optimisation of the community codes we develop

User-driven research

Data management solutions - Data analysis tools with reduced data traffic - Streaming - Efficient storage - Visualisation

9

Rank of the 2015 annual mean temperature over the last 37 years from ERA Interim.

Climate change is taking place

10

Climate models are made of coupled binaries representing the atmosphere, ocean, sea ice, land surface, etc.

Arctic sea-ice simulation with the NEMO/LIM ocean/sea-ice model for three different spatial resolutions.

Climate modelling

F. Massonnet (BSC)

11

Climate prediction is a large problem that requires running hundred of parallel jobs independently.

Computational efficiency and a flexible workflow manager are key elements.

Performing climate predictions

High-resolution CMIP6 decadal prediction

5,500 simulated years

200 million CPU-hours, 1.4 PB Low Res

High Res

Med Res

12

June-to-August near-surface temperature correlation difference between ensemble experiments with a climatological and realistic land-surface initialisation. Results for EC-Earth2.3 started in May over 1979-2010.

Predicting extremes

• C3S Climate Projections Workshop: Near-term predictions and projections, 21 April 2015

Prodhomme et al. (2015, Clim. Dyn.)

13

Online diagnostics

Analytics as a Service • Diagnostics online during the run (either on compute node or elsewhere)

• Reduced data traffic and storage

• New diagnostics (data mining of extremes) possible

• The user gets the results faster crucial to develop climate services (both public and private)

Climate model

HPC Model output

Current approach: offline diagnostics

Model output Diagnostics as part of the

I/O

Our aim: online diagnostics

Diagnostics

End user

Serial node

End user

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• A new paradigm has come to stay: user-driven research

• Education: in the era of open data, take advantage of the open education opportunities.

• Heterogeneity: link to and merge our data with communities with larger impact (urban, arts, social).

• Technology: make the most of a rapidly evolving technology (heterogeneous nodes, data software, mobile data capture, storage/compression, computing and storage outsourcing).

• Industry engagement: how can we solve the problem of involving more efficiently the private sector?

Some open questions