How will the United How will the United States calculate the States calculate the climate impact of climate impact of bioenergy?bioenergy?

Dennis BeckerDennis BeckerAssociate ProfessorAssociate ProfessorUniversity of University of MinnesotaMinnesota

Do Americans believe in climate change?

PEW RESEARCH CENTER, March 13-17, 2013

Is there solid evidence the earth is warming?

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Yes, solid evidencethe earth is warming

Warming mostly because of human activity

62% Norwegian forest owners

(May 2013)

Will Americans do anything about it?

What kind of priority do you think Obama and the Congress should give … (percent saying highest priority)

the economy

reducing federal spending

restructuring the federal tax system

enacting stricter gun-control laws

slowing rate of growth in spending on Medicare and Social Security

addressing gun violence

addressing immigration issues

addressing global warming/ climate change

Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted Jan 10-13, 2013 among random national sample of 1,001 adults

Will Americans do anything about it?

Should the federal government regulate the release of GHGs from power plants, cars and factories to reduce global warming?

The Washington Post - Kaiser Family Foundation poll, July 25 – August 5, 2012

All adults

Democrat

Republican

Independent

8% Somewhat 13% Strongly

Woodard, C. 2011. American Nations: A History of the Eleven Rival Regional Cultures of North America

YANKEEDOM

GREATER APPALACHIA

YANKEEDOM

DEEP SOUTH

NEW FRANCE

PART OF THE SPANISH CARIBBEAN

NEW NETHERLAND

EL NORTE

NEW FRANCETHE MIDLANDS

FIRST NATION

THE FAR WEST

THE LEFT COAST

THE MIDLANDS

TIDEWATER

Will Americans do anything about it?

Clean Air Act – requires EPA to regulate emissions of hazardous air pollutants from stationary and mobile sources;

– “best available control technology” (BACT) provisions;– does NOT accommodate temporal aspects of sequestration

US Supreme Court orders EPA to regulate GHGs (“endangerment”)

“Tailoring Rule” adopted – allows exemption of facilities by tonnage of C emitted, not source (e.g., biomass, fossil fuels)

3-year deferral – delayed permitting of biogenic C to conduct examination– establish Accounting Framework, and Science Advisory Board

Science Advisory Board – recommendations for biogenic C accounting

Deferral vacated by a federal court decisionNew Source Performance Standards – regulations for new coal and gas-fired

electricity; rules for existing facilities by 2014; biomass exempted

Revised Tailoring Rule – how will EPA accommodate temporal aspects without Congressional action (new Act vs. de-authorizing EPA)??

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2007

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2012

2013

2014

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Task … restricted to biogenic carbon from stationary facilities; did not assess attributional impacts

Carbon neutrality … cannot be assumed a priori

IPCC reporting convention … does not link stationary sources to their emissions; net carbon stock approach

EPA Biogenic Accounting Framework does not consider impacts over different time

scales net carbon stock approach (regional reference

points) would exempt facilities by location, not by emissions

holding facilities responsible for carbon leakage (e.g., LUC) does not reduce overall emissions

Science Advisory Board Observations

Default equations … by feedstock category, region, prior land use, current management practices Applied at facility-level Facilities can demonstrate lower emissions

Anticipated baseline … compare emissions from increased harvesting against baseline Include soil sequestration and natural decay rates Consider alternate fates of residues/diverted

wastes

Various time scales … incorporate tradeoffs of different time scales (C-plus)

Supplementary policies … to reduce carbon leakage based on assessment of directionality if not magnitude

Recommendations to EPA

Current Debate

Temporal issues difficult to rectify – radiative forcing, albedo, etc

Incorporating periodic loss events – fire, insects, and disease Transparency – clear and consistent reference conditions EPA struggling to connect biogenic emissions to a defensible

Clean Air Act regulation – although biomass qualifies as “BACT”

Facility-level LCA calculations would slow progress; lack consistent system boundaries and data

Other Important Developments:

“Surrogate” Climate Policy – FederalRenewable Fuels Standard – 16 billion gal cellulosic biofuels by 2022Production & Investment Tax Credits – open-looped: 1.1¢/kWh; closed-looped: 2.2¢/kWhFarm Bill (Energy Title) – community biomass heating; biomass procurement and sourcingVehicle fuel standards – new vehicle emissions down 19% since 2007BTU Act (proposed) – thermal tax parity; efficiencyClean Energy Standard (proposed)

Feedstock Feedstock sourcesource

Form of Form of energyenergy

Fossil fuel Fossil fuel displaceddisplaced

Forest Forest managemenmanagemen

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Other Important Developments:

“Surrogate” Climate Policy – States370+ state bioenergy policies and programs – mostly tax incentives targeting productionRenewable Portfolio Standards (RPS) – 36 statesNet metering – energy buy-back in 47 statesAB32 California – cap on GHGs; LULUC limitsMassachusetts RPS – links RECs to combustion efficiency; LULUC limitsBiomass harvest guidelines (site-level) – 15 statesForest certification – 50+ million hectares third-party certified (PEFC endorsed)

Feedstock Feedstock sourcesource

Form of Form of energyenergy

Fossil fuel Fossil fuel displaceddisplaced

Forest Forest managemenmanagemen

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For more information contact:

Dennis R. Becker Associate Professor Department of Forest Resources University of Minnesota drbecker@umn.edu 612.624.7286

Faculty Website: http://www.forestry.umn.edu/People/Becker/index.htm

Policy Related Research:http://enrpolicy.forestry.umn.edu/Research/BiomassBioenergyClimate/index.htm