how typical were the meteorological conditions in the cops area during the summer 2007?

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How typical were the meteorological conditions in the COPS area during the summer 2007? Heini Wernli Stephan Pfahl Jörg Trentmann University of Mainz

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How typical were the meteorological conditions in the COPS area during the summer 2007? Heini Wernli Stephan Pfahl Jörg Trentmann University of Mainz. Approach and Outline Data: ECMWF analysis (2007 op. ana. vs. ERA40 1979-2001). Approach and Outline - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: How typical were the meteorological conditions in the COPS area during the summer 2007?

How typical were the meteorological conditions in the COPS area during the summer 2007?

Heini WernliStephan PfahlJörg Trentmann

University of Mainz

Page 2: How typical were the meteorological conditions in the COPS area during the summer 2007?

Approach and Outline

Data: ECMWF analysis (2007 op. ana. vs. ERA40 1979-2001)

Page 3: How typical were the meteorological conditions in the COPS area during the summer 2007?

Approach and Outline

Data: ECMWF analysis (2007 op. ana. vs. ERA40 1979-2001)

Consider domain-average for COPS area of:- T, , e, q, ... at 925, 850, 700 hPa- simple variant of KO-index (thermodynamic stability)- wind velocity and direction at 500 hPa- Eady growth rate (baroclinicity at 700 hPa)- cyclone frequency- frequency of upper-level PV cut-offs (small-scale troughs)

Page 4: How typical were the meteorological conditions in the COPS area during the summer 2007?

Approach and Outline

Data: ECMWF analysis (2007 op. ana. vs. ERA40 1979-2001)

Consider domain-average for COPS area of:- T, , e, q, ... at 925, 850, 700 hPa- simple variant of KO-index (thermodynamic stability)- wind velocity and direction at 500 hPa- Eady growth rate (baroclinicity at 700 hPa)- cyclone frequency- frequency of upper-level PV cut-offs (small-scale troughs)

Show:- maps of seasonal mean & deviation from climatology- probability density functions (2007 vs. climatology)- quantile-quantile plots (2007 vs. climatology)

Page 5: How typical were the meteorological conditions in the COPS area during the summer 2007?

Approach and Outline

Data: ECMWF analysis (2007 op. ana. vs. ERA40 1979-2001)

Consider domain-average for COPS area of:- T, , e, q, ... at 925, 850, 700 hPa- simple variant of KO-index (thermodynamic stability)- wind velocity and direction at 500 hPa- Eady growth rate (baroclinicity at 700 hPa)- cyclone frequency- frequency of upper-level PV cut-offs (small-scale troughs)

Show:- maps of seasonal mean & deviation from climatology- probability density functions (2007 vs. climatology)- quantile-quantile plots (2007 vs. climatology)

Caveat:2007 and climatology have different model resolution!

Page 6: How typical were the meteorological conditions in the COPS area during the summer 2007?

T at 925 hPa

- colder than clim over F- warmer than clim over E Europe- very close to clim in COPS area

climatology1979-2001

2007

deviation from climatology in

Page 7: How typical were the meteorological conditions in the COPS area during the summer 2007?

climatology1979-2001

2007

deviation from climatology in

e at 925 hPa

- slightly above clim in COPS area

Page 8: How typical were the meteorological conditions in the COPS area during the summer 2007?

climatology1979-2001

2007

deviation from climatology in

Cyclone frequency

- above clim over UK / Benelux- below clim in Central Europe

Page 9: How typical were the meteorological conditions in the COPS area during the summer 2007?

climatology1979-2001

2007

deviation from climatology in

Freq. of upper-level cutoffs(short wave disturbances)

- strongly above clim over UK- above clim in W Europe / COPS

Page 10: How typical were the meteorological conditions in the COPS area during the summer 2007?

PDFs of domain-average values at 12 UTC

Temperature on 925 hPa [°C] specific hum. on 925 hPa [g/kg]

Page 11: How typical were the meteorological conditions in the COPS area during the summer 2007?

PDFs of domain-average values at 12 UTC

KO-Index: e, 500 - e, 850 [K]

Page 12: How typical were the meteorological conditions in the COPS area during the summer 2007?

PDFs of domain-average values at 12 UTC

wind direction on 500 hPa

more SW winds

Page 13: How typical were the meteorological conditions in the COPS area during the summer 2007?

Quantile-quantile plots of domain-averages at 12 UTC

T at 925 K

Page 14: How typical were the meteorological conditions in the COPS area during the summer 2007?

Quantile-quantile plots of domain-averages at 12 UTC

Q at 925 K

Page 15: How typical were the meteorological conditions in the COPS area during the summer 2007?

Quantile-quantile plots of domain-averages at 12 UTC

KO Index

Page 16: How typical were the meteorological conditions in the COPS area during the summer 2007?

Conclusion

In summer 2007, the COPS area was characterised by ...

++ cyclones to the NW

+ passage of short wave troughs+ frequency of SW winds at 500 hPa+ BL specific humidity (mainly average not extremes)+ low tropospheric baroclinicity

0 BL temperature

- TD stability (mainly average not extremes)

Page 17: How typical were the meteorological conditions in the COPS area during the summer 2007?
Page 18: How typical were the meteorological conditions in the COPS area during the summer 2007?

climatology1979-2001

2007

deviation from climatology in

Eady growth rate(low tropospheric baroclinicty)

- slightly above clim near 45°N (i.e., over Alps / COPS)

Page 19: How typical were the meteorological conditions in the COPS area during the summer 2007?

PDFs of domain-average values at 12 UTC

KO-Index: e, 500 - e, 850 [K] Eady growth rate