How to value ecosystem goods and services

in agriculture at increasing land use pressure ?

Katarina Hedlund Lund university, Sweden

Proyeksi Guna-Lahan1. Production of goods is increasing

Food, biofuels, timber, water use

2. Natural habitats are declining

3. Mitigating climate changeIncreased pressure on land for production

of biomass

EU biofuel strategy 2006 1% (produced in EU)2010 6% 10% of total area2020 10% 43% of total area

Guna-lahan Pertanian

Nowicki 2006

Current land use in Europe

Land use in EU-27

arable landpermanent pasturespermanent cropsforestsother areas

Eurostat 2008

Biofuel production

Agriculture Natural grasslands

Land use demands

Extensive agriculture, Dehesas in Spain

How do we conserve ecosystem services and biodiversity ?

Agri-environmental schemes:

Extensification

Protected areas

Heterogeneity in landscapes

EU common agricultural policy CAP

• Implemented nationally as rural development plans with additional national funding

• CAP (12 000 million €/yr), 47% of EU budget• Farming is 5% of European economy• CAP subsidies

– Area based income support– Rural development actions– Agri-environmental schemes

Jasa-jasa ekosistem terancam oleh Pertanian Intensif

1. Musuh alami2. Pollination3. Resistance to

pests & invasive species

4. Siklus Hara5. Terensi Air6. Retensi Carbon

Intensification and above ground services

• Increased heterogeneity may give higher diversity

• Effect is scale dependent

• Not true for all species

Tscharnkte et al. 2007

Soil ecosystem services

• Nutrient cyclingN, P retention and availability to plants• Water retentionAggregate structure, organic matter• Carbon retentionFuels microbial activity, mitigates climate change

Soil ecosystem services-the ”workers”

Soil services

Reduced under intensive management

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

bacterial biomass AM-fungi fungi

grasslandfield

Hedlund 2002

SOILSERVICEConflicting demands of land use:

Soil biodiversity and the sustainable delivery of ecosystem goods and services in Europe

http://www.kem.ekol.lu.se/soilservice/index.html

• value soil ecosystem services.• predict sustainability of ecosystem

services, by field and modelling studies.

• Build scenarios to identify economical and social drivers of land use

Biofuel production

Agriculture Natural grasslands

Land use demands Soil carbonNutrientsNatural enemiesPollination

Valuasi Jasa-jasa Ekologis

Market values of ecological services:prevention of pests - natural enemiespollinationwater retentionnutrient retention

Non market values:recreationlandscapes

Markanday et al 2008

Valuasi Ekonomi merupakan pendekatan yang dinamis

Jasa-jasa Ekosistem dalam Pertanian:1. Dynamic network of interacting

organisms2. Responding to changes in land use3. Depending on spatial and temporal

scales

JASA-JASA TANAH

Economic modelsimulated landscapespredicts regional land

use (20 yrs)

Ecological modelfarmers scale

predicts output of ecosystem services

Values of servicesfor farmer and society

Predictions on sustainabilityFeed back to policymakers

AgriPoliS Agent-based model of regional structural change

over time and space

Actions

Interactions

Farms

Factor endowment

Agricultural Policy Simulator (Happe 2004, Brady et al 2007)

Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (IAMO), Halle, Germany

Driver untuk AgriPoliS

Eksogen:1. Prices of

inputs/outputs2. Wage and

interest rates3. Agricultural

policy4. Climate5. Technology

Endogen:1. Land market2. Regional markets3. Input & output

levels4. Land use5. Landscape impacts6. ES production

Output from AgriPoliS• Farm structure

– Average farm size– Number of farms– Distribution of farm type

• Land use– Composition of crops– Distribution of field size– Landscape mosaic

• Econ. Performance– Land rents by soil type– Farm income – Farm profit – Investment activity– Returns to labour

• Livestock– Numbers of livestock– Animal density

Landscape impacts – Land use & field size

(b) Change in mean Field Size, Västerbotten

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

IntensiveGrass

ExtensiveGrass

Arable Crops All Arable Semi-NatGrassland

AGENDA REFORM BOND

(b) Field type as proportion of landscape, Västerbotten

-100%

-50%

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

Intensive Grass Extensive Grass Arable Crops Semi-NatGrassland

AGENDA REFORM BOND

Land use data (GIS based)Southern Sweden

Cereal production Grasslands