how to use technology to beat the markets...spies win wars or how to use technology to beat the...

SPIES WIN WARSOR

HOW TO USE TECHNOLOGY TO BEAT THE MARKETS

Adrian Economakis | Marine Money New York | June [email protected]: Information and opinions contained in this report have been compiled or arrived from sources believed by VV to be reliable. However, no warranty or representation is made as to the correctness, completeness and accuracy of the information or the assessments made on its basis.

WHAT WE DO

Value TradeMapSearch

OUR SERVICES

WHERE WE ARE

LAUNCHED2011

8 OFFICESWorldwide

PEOPLE160+

CLIENTS400 (2,000)

GOOD DATA = GOOD SPYING

SPYING TOOLS

SPY ON VESSELS (STOPPAGES)

SPY ON VESSELS (JOURNEYS)

SPY ON VESSELS (SPECIAL EVENTS)

SPY ON THE FLEET

VLCC 2013/14

VLCC 2018/19

SPY ON THE WORLD

SPY ON THE WORLD

26,000+ Berths6,000+ Ports6,000+ Anchorages2,000+ Shipyards

+ Terminal level details are being added

SPY ON A VESSELS DEMAND

SPY ON COMPANY FLEET DEMAND

SPY ON GLOBAL DEMAND & SUPPLY

SPY ON FLEET UTILISATION

SPY ON TRADES

SPY ON ROUTES

SPY ON IT ALL

VLCC TON MILE DEMAND

TRACK RECORD

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

DecTo

n M

iles

(Bn)

VLCC Ton Mile Demand

Five Year Range Y2017 Y2018 Average

WHAT WE SHOWED AT MM LONDON JANUARY 2019

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

DecTon Miles (Bn

)



DISTILL TRENDS TO ASSESS MARKET

500

550

600

650

700

750

800

Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

DecTo

n M

iles

(Bn)




560

580

600

620

640

660

680

700

720

740

760

-$10,000

-$5,000

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

2017 2018 2019

Ton

Mile

DW

T Bn

/ N

M

VLC

C T

CE

$/D

ay

Ton Mile Demand VLCC Rates2017 2018 2019


560

580

600

620

640

660

680

700

720

740

760

-$10,000

-$5,000

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000


2017 2018 2019

Ton

Mile

DW

T Bn

/ N

M

VLC

C T

CE

$/D

ay


• False peak in demand


560

580

600

620

640

660

680

700

720

740

760

-$10,000

-$5,000

$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000


2017 2018 2019

Ton

Mile

DW

T Bn

/ N

M

VLC

C T

CE

$/D

ay


• False peak in demand

• Rates falling

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Nu

mb

er o

f V

esse

ls

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

LARGE LNG FLEET GROWTH

5%9%

7%8%

5%

11%3%

LARGE LNG DEMAND VS EARNINGS

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

$140,000

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

Larg

e LN

G R

ates

USD

/Wee

k

Ton

Mile

s D

WT

Bn

/ N

M

Ton Miles Large LNG Rates

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

LARGE LNG DEMAND VS SUPPLY QUARTERLY

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

Per

cen

tag

e C

han

ge

Average Ton Mile % Growth Average Vessels % Growth

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

LARGE LNG IMPORTS TO CHINA

0

5

10

15

20

25

Ton

Mile

s D

WT

Bn

/ N

M

ROW Papua New Guinea Nigeria USA Australia2016 2017 2018 2019

MARKET REVIEW

GAS 3 MONTH DEMAND VS SUPPLY

-0.9%10.5%

12.3%

2.9% -0.7%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

Large LNG QMAX/QFLEX VLGC SP FR (Small) Fully Press

Yea

r on

Yea

r P

erce

nta

ge

Ch

ang

e

Ton Mile Growth vs Supply Growth

Ton Mile Growth Supply Growth

TANKER 3 MONTH DEMAND VS SUPPLY

-3.0%-9.0%

1.3% -4.6%1.7%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

VLCC Suezmax Aframax LR1 MR2

Yea

r on

Yea

r P

erce

nta

ge

Ch

ang

e



BULKER 3 MONTH DEMAND VS SUPPLY

-4.7%

-3.7%

-1.9%

0.4%

-4.0%

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

Capesize Panamax Supramax Handy

Yea

r on

Yea

r P

erce

nta

ge

Ch

ang

e



MOST PROMISING SHIPPING MARKETS

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

Dem

and

/S

up

ply

Rat

io

Bulkers Demand/Supply

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

Dem

and

/S

up

ply

Rat

io

Bulkers Demand/Supply Tankers Demand/Supply

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

Dem

and

/S

up

ply

Rat

io

Bulkers Demand/Supply Tankers Demand/Supply LNG Demand/Supply

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019


0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.6

Dem

and

/S

up

ply

Rat

io

Bulkers Demand/Supply Tankers Demand/Supply LNG Demand/Supply LPG Demand/Supply

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019

BEST / WORST DEMAND SUPPLY RATIOS (3 MONTHS)

12.3%

TOP 3

GasVLGC

10.5%

GasQMAX/QFLEX

2.9%

GasSP FR (Small)

-9.0%

TankerSuezmax

-4.7%

BulkerCapesize

-4.6%

TankerLR1

BOTTOM 3

A GOOD NAVIGATOR (SPY?) NEVER RELIES ON A SINGLE PIECE OF INFORMATION

SUMMARY

The ton mile demand and vessel trade tool for Bulkers, Tankers and Gas.

vesselsvalue.com

Disclaimer: Information and opinions contained in this report have been compiled or arrived from sources believed by VV to be reliable. However, no warranty or representation is made as to the correctness, completeness and accuracy of the information or the assessments made on its basis.

how to use technology to beat the markets...spies win wars or how to use technology to beat the...

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