how to use sigmet advisory - wmo commission for ... on aeronautical meteorology services in asia...

Seminar onAeronautical Meteorology Services in Asia

Beijing, China11 – 15 April 2011

How to use SIGMET advisory

Sheng LiGuangzhou Regional Meteorological Center, Central & Southern Air Traffic Management

Bureau, Guangzhou, China

Contents

1、Outline of SIGMET advisory

2、How to use SIGMET advisory

演示者

演示文稿备注

the presentation has 2 topics

Outline of SIGMET advisory

What is SIGMET advisoryWeather PhenomenaVertical CoverageFormat Issue Frequency Validity PeriodDissemination

演示者

演示文稿备注

In the outline of SIGMET advisory topic we will talk about the weather phenoamena ,vertical coverage, format issue frequency validity period and dissemination for the SIGMET advisory

What is SIGMET advisory?

The SIGMET advisory is supposed to “trigger” a reaction from the MWO (if needed) and in any case to help the MWO with the issuance of the best possible SIGMET

The SIGMET advisory can be regarded as a guidance.

演示者

演示文稿备注

the presentation has 2 topics

Weather Phenomenaa) thunderstorms:

1) obscured (OBSC TS), with hail (OBSC TSGR);2) embedded (EMBD TS), with hail (EMBD TSGR);3) frequent (FRQ TS), with hail (FRQ TSGR);4) squall line (SQL TS), with hail (SQL TSGR);

b) severe turbulence: (SEV TURB)

c) severe icing :(SEV ICE), due to freezing rain (SEV ICE (FZRA))

d) severe mountain wave:(SEV MTW)

演示者

演示文稿备注

weather phenoamena: For the purpose of the feasibility study,The weather phenomena will be ristricted to the following 4 types-,thunderstorms--,severe turbulence--severe icing and severe mountain wave,-the discriptions of these phenomena are Just the same as the SIGMET we are using now.such as obscured thunderstorms,embedded thunderstorms,frequent thunderstorms and squall line thunderstorms

Vertical CoverageSIGMET advisory were to be issued for

these 4 types of phenomena which are occurring above 10,000 feet (> FL100). For those phenomena that occurred through this level, a lower limit of the phenomena should still be estimated.

FL080

FL040

FL130

FL040

演示者

演示文稿备注

for example, 开始点 here is an area of severe ICING , the higer limit is just FL80, lower than FL100,it will not be concerned ,but in this case the higher limit is FL130 that is higer than FL100,although the lower limit is below FL100,this area of SEV ICE will be concerned and it’s lower limit will be estimated.

Format(1)

The format for the SIGMET advisory during the trial will be both textual and graphical.the textual version of SIGMET advisory is abbreviated to SMA,the Graphical version is abbreviated to SMG

FORMAT(2)SMA :during the trial ,SMA will be issued for

each phenomenon, as required, (It’s format is similar to current practice with tropical cyclone advisories (TC) and volcanic ash advisories

(VA)

SMG :during the trial,SMG will consist of advisory areas for all concerned phenomena in a single chart.

演示者

演示文稿备注

Here,” was to be issued for each phenomenon”, means that,if there are more than 1 kind of PHEN or 1 kind of PHEN in different areas expected to occur ,there will be a group of SMAs at each issue time, we will talk about the issue frequency later.

SMA Format details(1)Element Detailed

contentTemplate Examples

1 WMO header

FRnnnn nnnn nnnnnn FRAS?? ZBBB 090400

2 Identificati-on of the type of message

Type of message and sequence number

SMA nnn SMA 001SMA 002SMA 003

3 Time of origin

Year,mon-th,day,time in UTC of issue

ISSUED:nnnnnnnn/nnnnZ

ISSUED :20110509/0400Z

SMA Format details(2)

element Detailed content

template examples

4 Name of SAC

Name of SIGMET Aviosory Center

SAC:nn [n…] n SAC:ASIA

5 Validity period

Day-time groups indicating the period of validity in UTC

DTG:nnnnnn/nnnnnn DTG:090400/091000DTG:090600/091000

If there is no phenomenon that meet the critera expected to occur during the validity period,the SMA from here will jump to item 13(see item 13)



6 FIR ICAO location indicator of the FIR/s in which the phenomenon occurred

FIR:nnnn [/nnnn] [/nnnn]/

FIR:VNSM/ZPKM

7 Phenom-enon

Description of the phenomenon

PHENOMENON:OBSC TS[GR] orFRQ TS[GR]orSEV TURB orSEV ICE orSEV MTW

PHENOMENON:OBSC TSPHENOMENON:OBSC TSGRPHENOMENON:FRQ TSPHENOMENON:OBSC TSGRPHENOMENON:SEV ICEPHENOMENON:SEV TURBPHENOMENON:SEV MTW

演示者

演示文稿备注

SMA Format details(4)Element

Detailed content Template Examples

8 Forecast Indication whetherthe information isobserved andexpected to continue,or forecast

FCSTOBS

OBSOBS AT 1210ZFCST

9 Locati-on

Location(referring to latitude/longitudeIn degrees and minutes)

LOCATION:WI Nnnnn Ennnnn-Nnnnn Ennnnn-Nnnnn Ennnnn-Nnnnn Ennnnn-Nnnnn Ennnnn

LOCATION:WI N2330 E11324-N2054 E10948-N2130 E11036

SMA Format details(5)Element Detailed content Template Examples

10 Level Flight level and extent

LEVEL:FLnnn orFLnnn/nnn orTOP FLnnn orTOP ABV FLnnn

LEVEL:FL180LEVEL:FL180/300LEVEL:TOP FL400LEVEL:TOP ABV FL390LEVEL:FL060/180

11 Movement Movement or expected movement(direction and speed) with reference to one of the sixteen points of the compass,or staionary

MOVEMENT:N [nnKMH]orSSE[nnKMH] or

STNR

MOVEMENT:N 30KMHMOVEMENT:SSE 25KMHMOVEMENT:STNR



12 Changes in intensity

Expected changes in intensity

INTENSITY:INTSF or WKN or NC

INTENSITY:INTSFINTENSITY:WKNINTENSITY:NC

13 Remarks Remarks as necessary

RMK:nn[n…]n RMK: NO PHENOMENA EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE REGION

14 Next SMA issue time

When the next gourp of SMA will be issued

NXT ADVISORY: nnnnnnnn/nnnnZ

NEXT ADVISORY:20110509/0800Z

演示者

演示文稿备注

FRAS?? ZBBB 090400SMA 005ISSUED :20110509/0400ZSAC:BEIJINGVALID:090400/091000PHENOMENON:EMBD TSFCSTFIR:VVTS/VLVT/VDPPLOCATION:WI N1826 E10547-N1155 E10923-

N1355 E10345 LEVEL:TOP ABV FL390MOVEMENT:N 30KMHINTENSITY:NCRMK:NILNEXT ADVISORY:20110509/0800Z

SMA EXAMPLE ①

演示者

演示文稿备注

OK,here is and example of SMA example,at 04UTC,this is a fixed issued time,we expected that there are an area of FRQ TS The issued time, the validity period the PHEN, in which FIR the TS is expected to occur ,here is the location in details , This is the vertical extent ,movement and the changes in intensity the next advisory will be issued at 08UTC

SMA EXAMPLE ②:FRAS?? ZBBB 090800SMA 009ISSUED :20110509/0800ZSAC:BEIJINGVALID:090800/091400RMK: NO PHENOMENON EXPECTED

TO OCCUR IN THE REGION NEXT ADVISORY:20110509/1200Z

Regional Seminar on Aeronautical Meteorological Services in Asia

演示者

演示文稿备注

In this example ,there will be NO PHENOMENON EXPECTED TO OCCUR IN THE REGION

In the SMG,we use different colours to describe different phenomena.

Red:TS(all types)

Green:SEV TURB

YELLOW:SEV MTW

gSMGCENTER:BEIJING ISSUED:20110509/0400Z

NEXT SMG:20110509/0800Z

NR VALID PHENOMENON LEVEL MOVMENT INTENSITY

001 090500/090800 EMBD TS FCST TOP ABV FL450 SSE 30KMH NC

002 090400/091000 FRQ TS FCST FL030/400 E 25KMH INTSF

003 090400/091000 SEV TURB FCST FL260/400 S 40KMH NC

004 090400/091000 SEV TURB FCST FL200/390 E 30KMH WKN

005 090400/091000 SEV ICE FCST FL080/160 STNR NC

006 090400/091000 SEV MTW FL120/200 STNR NC

001006

004

005

GRAPHICAL SIGMET ADVISORY(SMG)

EXAMPLE

BLUE:SEV ICE

演示者

演示文稿备注

Red represent TS this area is too small to see,I use a simplfy case to introduce it

FRAS?? ZBBB 090400SMA 005ISSUED :20110509/0400ZSAC:BEIJINGVALID:090400/091000PHENOMENON:EMBD TSFCSTFIR:VVTS/VLVT/VDPPLOCATION:WI N1826 E10547-N1155 E10923-N1355 E10345 LEVEL:TOP ABV FL390MOVEMENT:N 30KMHINTENSITY:NCRMK:NILNEXT ADVISORY:20110509/0800Z

gSMGCENTER:BEIJING ISSUED:20110509/0400Z

NEXT SMG:20110509/0800Z

NR VALID PHENOMENON

LEVEL MOVMENT

INTENSITY

005 090400/091000

EMBD TS FCST

TOP ABV FL390

N 30 KMH

NC

GRAPHICAL SIGMET ADVISORY(SMG)

EXAMPLE

Regional Seminar on Aeronautical Meteorological Services in Asia

演示者

演示文稿备注

This chart shows the relation of the imformation between SMG amd SMA the polygon on the SMG is govern by the coordinate in SMA

Contrast between SMA and SMGSMA SMG

Phenomena Each SMA will describe only

onephenomenon

Each SMG can describe multiple

phenomena

Location coordinates Polygons on the chart

Issuance At least 1 SMA at each issued time

1 SMG at each issued time

Cancellation Replaced byUpdating the Current SMA

Replaced byUpdating the Current SMG

Issue Frequency(1)

During the trial,the update frequency will be no greater than 4 hours.The fixed issued time will be 00/04/08/12/16/20 UTCeach day.The SIGMET advisory we issued will be kept under continuous review,if there will be significant difference form what we have expected between two fixed issued time,We will issued a update SIGMET advisory for the current one.

演示者

演示文稿备注

That means we will update the current SIGMET adivosry if necessary �

Issue Frequency(2)

演示者

演示文稿备注

Here is an example AT 04UTC,this area of EMBD TS is expected to be weakening, the validity period is 04-10UTC, 2hrs later, at 06UTC,we find that our expectation of this thunderstorm is wrong, it is expected to be intensifying and the coverage area will be bigger, Then we will update the current SIGMET advisory

Issue Frequency(3)

What about other phenoamena with the same validity period that are expected to have no significant difference compared with the current SIGMET advisory?

Issue Frequency(4)ISSUED:04UTC ISSUED:06UTC

VALID:04/10UTC VALID:06/10UTC

演示者

演示文稿备注

For example ,in this chart,the area of thunderstrom is expected to changed from EMBD TO FRQ,and the coverage area is bigger,but the expectation of this area of severe turbulence ,we use the green polygon to indicate it,it remain the same,what we are going to do? We will issue a new SIGMET advisory for it,too--.the latest issued SIGMET advisory will take the place of the original one automatically.

Validity Period

The validity period for the SIGMET adivosry during the trial will be for a period up to 6 hours. This would allow MWOs responsible for the issuance of SIGMET (up to 4 hours validity) to have sufficient lead time to prepare and disseminate the relevant SIGMET.



SMA EXAMPLE ①: Fixed time

演示者

演示文稿备注

OK,here is an example at 04UTC,this is a fixed issued time, we expected that there FRQ TS and SEV TURB is expected to occur in the region, so we issued 2 SMA and the serial number is 005 and下一页

FRAS?? ZBBB 090400SMA 006ISSUED :20110509/0400ZSAC:BEIJINGVALID:090400/091000PHENOMENON:SEV TURBFCSTFIR:ZHWH/ZSHALOCATION:WIN3243 E10950-N3039 E12190-N2658 E11953-N2754 E10938LEVEL:FL270/FL340MOVEMENT:STNRINTENSITY:NCRMK:NILNEXT ADVISORY:20110509/0800Z

SMA EXAMPLE ①: Fixed time (continued)

演示者

演示文稿备注

006,005 is for thunderstorm,006 is for SEV TURB



0600

0600Z

FRQ TS0600

INTSF

007 SMA EXAMPLE ②:Update

演示者

演示文稿备注

AT 06UTC ,the embeded TS is expected to become frequent and intensifying,we descide to update the current SIGMET advisory First 开始点 the beginning of the validity period change from 04 to 06 Remember,the next issue time will still be the next fixed time.

FRAS?? ZBBB 090400SMA 006ISSUED :20110509/0400ZSAC:BEIJINGVALID:090400/091000PHENOMENON:SEV TURBFCSTFIR:ZHWH/ZSHALOCATION:WIN3243 E10950-N3039 E12190-N2658 E11953-N2754 E10938LEVEL:FL270/FL340MOVEMENT:STNRINTENSITY:NCRMK:NILNEXT ADVISORY:20110509/0800Z

0600

0600Z

0600

008 SMA EXAMPLE ②:Update

(continued)

演示者

演示文稿备注

Though the expectation of the SEV TURB dosen’t change ,but and update for the revalent SMA is still needed 开始点 and nothing else needs to change

Dessemination

Dissemination for the SIGMET advisory during the trial will be via AFTN and the internet.

SMA:via the internet/AFTNSMG:via the internet

演示者

演示文稿备注

there will be two kinds of format for the SIGMET advisory,one is textual,the other one is graphical,we will talk about it later.the textual format will via the internet and AFTN,the graphical format will be desseminated only via internet Receive SIGMET advisory via AFTN is just the same as you receive TAF/METAR from AFTN,if any of you need detail information about this,you can enquire our technical personnel .

The Internet accessVisit the Asian Aeronautical Meteorology

Service website:WWW.AAMETS.ORG

演示者

演示文稿备注

this is the internet access to SIGMET advisory. MWOs forecaster can visit the asian aeronautical meteorology service websit:www.aamets.org, The link is on the left side of the website this part of the website is still under construction,it will be finished before the beginning of the trial

How to use SIGMET advisory

SIGMET advisory is just a guidance for SIGMET issuance. It is not going to take the place of SIGMET.It provide a direct reference product for MWOs forecasters.

Use SMA as a guidancefor SIGMET issuance

FRAS?? ZBBB 120400 SMA 004 ISSUED :20110412/0400Z SAC:BEIJING VALID:120400/121000 PHENOMENON:EMBD TS FCST FIR:ZYSH/VLVT/VTBB/ LOCATION:WI N1603 E11130 -S1432 E11425-N0958 E10634 -N0847 E10152-N1341 E09931 -N1907 E10152-N1841 E10432 - N1649 E10559 LEVEL:TOP ABV FL390 MOVEMENT:STNR INTENSITY:NC RMK:NIL NEXT ADVISORY:20110412/0800Z

2011.4.12 03UTC

演示者

演示文稿备注

Assume that this is the satellite of 07UTC on JUNE THE SIXTH,2011,AND this is the area we are concerning 点击：This the SMA we ISSUE 逐项介绍

SMGCENTER:BEIJING ISSUED:20110412/0400Z

NEXT SMG:20110412/0800Z


004 120400/121000 EMBD TS FCST TOP ABV FL390

STNR WKN

004

演示者

演示文稿备注

This is the SMG ,will be issued at the same time.

Use SMA as a guidance for SIGMET issuance

The SIGMET issued by Haikou MWO may be:ZJHK SIGMET 1 VALID 120500/120900 ZJSA-ZJSY SANYA FIREMBD TS S OF N16 TOP ABV FL390 STNR NC=

N16

演示者

演示文稿备注

After MWOs’ forecasters receive this SMA, they can use it as a guidance For example,the HAIKOU MWO issue a SIGMET like this

Keys to use SIGMET advisory FRAS?? ZBBB 060800 SMA 004 ISSUED :20110606/0800Z SAC:BEIJING VALID:060800/061300 PHENOMENON:EMBD TS FCST FIR:ZYSH/VLVT/VTBB/ LOCATION:WI N1603 E11130 -S1432 E11425-N0958 E10634 -N0847 E10152-N1341 E09931 -N1907 E10152-N1841 E10432 - N1649 E10559 LEVEL:TOP ABV FL390 MOVEMENT:STNR INTENSITY:WKN RMK:NIL NEXT

ADVISORY:20110606/1200Z

Always use the latest advisoryEven the validity period of the

Previous advisory is still avaible

Whether the phenomena is goingTo occur in your

FIR region

演示者

演示文稿备注

First ,MWOs’ forecasters should pay attention to the issued time, Always use the latest advisory,,,Even the validity period of the Previous advisory is still avaible Because the fixed issue frequency is 4hrs, I suggest MWOs’ forecaster check the SIGMET advisory aleast every 4hrs. For rapid developed phenomenon like thunderstorm in the afternoon It is suggest that MWOs’ forecaster pay attention to the update of current SIGMET advisory everyhour. There may be severl SMA at the same issued time,there may be too many imformation,there is a tips,pay attention to the FIR item, Whether the phenomena is goingTo occur in your FIR region, If not , MWOs’ forecaster can pass it, but if your FIR is small,it is suggest that you should be caution if your adjacent FIR is involved

22/0730UTCAnother example

演示者

演示文稿备注

This is another example ,, in details , before the fixed issued time 08UTC,we get the latest 0730UTC sattlite image indo-china peninsula

500hPa

700hPa Vertical Speed

K IndexCAPE

Simulated Radar Echo 6hr Precipitation(14UTC)

22/08UTC

演示者

演示文稿备注

These are own operational MESO-SCALE numerical model output products,---先别说the initial condition and boundary condition comes from the T639 global model The data time is 12UTC on March,21st,2011,for the convenience of presentation, I pick out the area I am interesting.in I will use6 kind of modle outputs,, First is the 500 hPa wind BAR ,geopotential height,Temperature,we can see that the indo-china peninsula and the bay of Thailand is on the south edge of the subtropical high,----there are short wave moving westward. The second one is CAPE,---the area with yellow color is higher than 1000J/kg,the image shows that the bay of Thailand and the SW part of indo-china peninsula had instable energy, The 3rd image is K INDEX,the area that was higer than 30 degrees Celsius cover the the middle and the south part of indo-china peninsula and the whole bay of thailand The 4th image is 700hpa vertical speed,only the area of upward movement is display on the image, middle and the south part of indo-china peninsula and south part of bay of thailand had upward movement The 5th image is the simulated radar echo,it showed that there were some convective activities in the area we are concerned The 6th image is the accumulate precepitation in the past 6hrs,pay attention that I use the 14UTC product here,because the 14UTC product describe the accumulate precipitation of 08UTC to 14UTC,that is the period we concerned about OK,now we keep on find out the trend in the future of these physical parameter or products

500hPa


K IndexCAPE


22/09UTC

演示者

演示文稿备注

500hPa


K IndexCAPE

Simulated Radar Echo

22/10UTC

6hr Precipitation(16UTC)

500hPa


K IndexCAPE


22/11UTC

500hPa


K IndexCAPE

Simulated Radar Echo

22/12UTC

6hr Precipitation(18UTC)

500hPa


K IndexCAPE


22/13UTC

500hPa


K IndexCAPE


22/14UTC

演示者

演示文稿备注

What we can find?first the 500hpa is the same,short wave keep moving westward and affect the central and south part of indo-china peninsula,and the bay of thailland,the cape increased a bid,k-index was almost the same, There is some thing interesting on the 700hPa vertical speed image ,a very strong vertical upward speed center developed,and the simulated radar echo image shows that the reflectivity was becoming stronger, a stong precipitation center occurred on the east coast of bay of thailand It means that the this area of TS was intensifying and developed westward. Driven by the 700hPa westward wind,the TS should move westward,----considering that the vertical change of wind direction of this area is a bit clockwise,the TS was tend to move to the right side ,that was WNW,the speed was about 30KMH,form the NWP and satellite image animation, we know that the speed of movement was not the same in the whole TS area ,the south part was faster than the nort part,---base on the rule of as simple as possible for the convenince of the users, we didn’t think it necessary to separate,,and we used an average speed of this TS AREA,as a guidance ,that was enough.

22/0730UTCAnother example

演示者

演示文稿备注

So we may made a conlusion that TS of this area would be intensifying and move WNW at the speed of about 30KMH

SMGCENTER:BEIJING ISSUED:2011032/0800Z

NEXT SMG:20110322/1200Z


004 220800/221400 EMBD TS FCST TOP ABV FL390 WNW 20KMH INTSF

005 220800/221400 SEV TURB FCST FL200/FL290 E 30KMH NC

005

004

演示者

演示文稿备注

This is the revalent SMG An area of SEV TURB is expected to occur or maintain during the validity period ,too, so there will be two phenomena in this SMG

FXAS?? ZBBB 220800SMA 004ISSUED :20110322/0800ZSAC:BEIJINGVALID:220800/221400PHENOMENON:EMBD TSFCSTFIR:VDPP/VLVT/VTBB/VVTSLOCATION:WI N1641 E10401-N1557 E10756-N1412 E10916-N1137 E10852-N0923 E10601-N0731 E09943-N1247E09939LEVEL:TOP ABV FL390MOVEMENT:MOV WNW 20KMHINTENSITY:INTSFRMK:NILNEXT ADVISORY:20110322/1200Z

FRAS?? ZBBB 220800SMA 005ISSUED :20110322/0800ZSAC:BEIJINGVALID:220800/221400PHENOMENON:SEV TURBFCSTFIR:ZPKM /ZHWH /ZSHA LOCATION:WI N3100 E10533-S2938 E10922-N3012 E11318-N3108 E11623-N3214 E11251-N3210 E10929LEVEL:FL200/290MOVEMENT:MOV E 30KMHINTENSITY:NCRMK:NILNEXT ADVISORY:20110322/1200Z

演示者

演示文稿备注

This is the revalent SMA Let see the development of the TS we had issued SIGMET advisory for

22/0830UTC

22/0930UTC

22/1030UTC

22/1130UTC

next SIGMET advisoryWould issue 30mins

Later.This area may beCutted in thenext advisory

22/1230UTC

22/1330UTC

22/1430UTC

演示者

演示文稿备注

NWP proform well in this case,and the SIGMET advisory would be very useful , But we all know that NWP will Not always proform well enough Especially in the tropical region and area aftected significantly ty topography,that is why we Need update for the current SIGMET advisory. we will verify The NWP product and review The current SIGMET and update It if necessary trust the SIGMET advisory or not ,it is up to MWOs’ forecaster ,you can use it directly or just pass it or you can use part of the advisory ,for example,you may think that the changes in intensity is OK, but the movement speed is too slow or too fast ,the area is too big or too small,it is ok ,it is all up to you. no matter how you think about the SIGMET advisory ,is good or is bad, let us know about,so feedback is very important my collegue Mr huanghaibo will talk about it in details later

THANK YOU!

how to use sigmet advisory - wmo commission for ... on aeronautical meteorology services in asia...

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