Spatial Prediction Using Modified Bivariate Frequency Ratio

UsingExcel and ArcMap only !

Omar F. Althuwaynee, PhDGIS and Geomatics Engineering

Spatial Prediction Using Modified Bivariate Frequency Ratio

Omar F. Althuwaynee, PhDGIS and Geomatics Engineering

In this session i will talk about

1. pairwise comparison of prediction rates.

2. producing Susceptibility index maps.

3. prediction accuracy assessment (validation) using AUC.

Let us begin..!

1. Calculate the spatial correlation between; prediction factors, and the dependent factor.

2. Calculate autocorrelations between; the prediction factors, by considering their prediction importance or contribution.

3. Produce susceptibility map using; Microsoft Excel and ESRI ArcMap only.

4. Validate the prediction accuracy using; most common statistical method of Area under the curve (AUC).

LET US BEGIN..!

End of this session, you will be able to

Susceptibility mapping methods with GIS

Bivariate-statistics-based Multivariate statistical

Easy to apply and update • More realistic, accurate and sensitive to the independents

• optimistic by showing evidences iffurther investigations needed to enhance the precision

Not considering the mutual interrelationships among the independents

Considering the mutual interrelationships among the independents

ex. Probability statistics, like, FR (Frequency ratio)

ex. Machine learning , like, ANN (artificial neural network) Common regression methods, like, LR (Logistic regression)

Model application requirements ..!

Dependent factor: prediction target locations inventory (Landslides, wells, minerals test porholes).

Independent factors: predisposing factors (predictors) As conditioning factors, the parameters slope angle, soil types, and land use.

1. Identification and mapping of a set of dependent (target) and independents factors that are directly or indirectly correlated.

2. Estimating the relative contribution of these independents factors in predicting of dependent factor.

What is FR..!

A bivariate statistical analysis method, based on the spatial distribution (Probability) of dependent factor (landslides, pollutants), and such of the considered conditioning factors (slope, aspect, temperature, rainfall..etc..).

Probabilistic analysis considers the statistical relationships between historical target locations and its conditioning factors

Relative Frequency (RF) = relative density index (RDI) = Frequency Ratio (FR)

2001 El Salvador Landslide Located Near San Salvador

Newark and Sherwood District Council

Natural hazards

Permit Times for Mining Exploration http://bit.ly/2keyuNP Gold mining: NYU Graduates Seeking $11 Billion of Gold in Ransacked Minehttp://bit.ly/2k2ZL6C

Minings and Groundwater exploration

Groundwater: Agriculture Water Pumphttp://bit.ly/2keDeHl

Calculating FR, RF, and PR coefficients for each factor

Calculating Pairwise comparison

Spatial validation using AUC

Producing Susceptibility index map

Processing Steps..!

Calculations..!!

Where FR : Frequency ratioRF : Index of the spatial association (Relative frequency ) of spatial factors and

targets.PR : Predictor rate.

𝑅𝐹=𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 𝑐𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑠 𝐹𝑅

∑ 𝑓𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟𝑐𝑙𝑎𝑠𝑠𝑒𝑠 𝐹𝑅

Min𝑆𝐼= ∑ (𝑅𝐹× 𝑃𝑅 )

𝑀𝑎𝑥 (𝑅𝐹×𝑃𝑅 )×100

To consider the mutual interrelationships among the independents.

Software's:Microsoft Excel- MicrosoftArcMap - ESRIQGIS 2.18.0 - OpenSource

Data and Tools..!!

Data type Data structure SourceLandcover Raster European Environment Agency

[http://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/data/clc-2000-raster-1

Topographic and NDVI Raster USGS [https://earthexplorer.usgs.gov/]

Study area Vector DivaGIS [diva-gis.org/gdata]

Training and testing points

Vector Experimental data

• Althuwaynee, Omar F., et al. "A novel ensemble bivariate statistical evidential belief function with knowledge-based analytical hierarchy process and multivariate statistical logistic regression for landslide susceptibility mapping." Catena 114 (2014): 21-36.

• Sabatakakis, N., et al. "Landslide susceptibility zonation in Greece." Natural hazards 65.1 (2013): 523-543.

More literature..!!