how to trade more consistently with clear, simple and...

How to Trade More Consistently with Clear, Simple and Objective Entries & Exits

December 29, 2016

WWW.ACTIVETRENDTRADING.COM

DENNIS W. WILBORN, SR.

[email protected]

HTTPS://TWITTER.COM/TREND_DWW

DisclaimerU.S. GOVERNMENT REQUIRED DISCLAIMER – COMMODITY FUTURES TRADING COMMISSION FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING HAS LARGE POTENTIAL REWARDS, BUT ALSO LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. YOU MUST BE AWARE OF THE RISKS AND BE WILLING TO ACCEPT THEM IN ORDER TO INVEST IN THE FUTURES AND OPTIONS MARKETS.

DON’T TRADE WITH MONEY YOU CAN’T AFFORD TO LOSE. THIS IS NEITHER A SOLICITATION NOR AN OFFER TO BUY/SELL FUTURES OR OPTIONS. NO REPRESENTATION I S BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE DISCUSSED IN THIS TRAINING. THE PAST PERFORMANCE OF ANY TRADING SYSTEM OR METHODOLOGY IS NOT NECESSARILY INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

CFTC RULE 4.41 – HYPOTHETICAL OR SIMULATED PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAINLIMITATIONS. UNLIKE AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SIMULATED RESULTS DO NOTREPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, SINCE THE TRADES HAVE NOT BEEN E XECUTED, THERESULTS MAY HAVE UNDER-OR-OVER COMPENSATED FOR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAINMARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED TRADING PROGRAMS INGENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OFHINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELYTO ACHIEVE PROFIT OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN.

ALL MATERIALS PRESENTED ARE FOR TRAINING PURPOSES ONLY . TRADERS SHOULD PAPER TRADE ANY NEW METHOD PRIOR TO RISK OF PERSONAL CAPITAL.

Clarify, Simplify & Multiply

This has been the Motto of Active Trend Trading from the beginning!

We continuously work to Clarify & Simplify through refinements to the system to make it objective and easy to both learn and use.

The purpose of all presentations is to provide our fellow Active Trend Trader Members a jump start to accelerate progress up the Learning Curve.

We welcome suggestions on how to improve the learning process!

Trade Wisely & Profitably,

Dennis W. Wilborn

Founder & Lead Technical Analyst

- Founder & Lead Technical Analyst for Active Trend Trading - Certified Candlestick Technician- Affiliate of Market Technician Associations- Guest Speaker on IBD How to Make Money in Stocks Radio Show- Highlighted in the book “How to Make Money in Stocks-Success Stories”- Publish “Art & Science of Active Trend Trading—Trader’s Report” Weekly- Host “How to Make Money Trading Stocks Show” Weekly- Systems Researcher- Former Forbes Contributor

- Retired US Navy, Commander- Civil Engineer- Adjunct Professor MBA Program Chaminade University, Oahu, Hawaii- Started Trading in 1989- Started Trading For a Living in 2006

- Research Colleague Mike Trager, Dallas, Texas

• Our Motto: Clarify, Simplify & Multiply

Dennis W. Wilborn, Sr. [email protected]

http://www.activetrendtrading.com/

mailto:[email protected]

• Trading Consistency is achieved by repeating a successful pattern of behavior over time based on using the rules of a proven successful simple system!

Copyright 2007-2016 Active Trend Trading

• Trading Consistency is achieved by repeating a successful pattern of behavior over time based on using rules of a proven, successful, simple system.

• Objective Entries: Optimize How Much You are Willing to pay to enter. Enter when there’s an edge and the probabilities are in your favor. Don’t loose money on the entry.

• Objective Profit/Loss Exits: Insurance policy that keeps us from becoming….


Entering off the 8 Period EMA

• Our research has found that learning to trade off of

a specific moving average can lead to higher entry

consistency because of objective entry criteria.

• It is crucial to find moving average sets that are

applicable across variable timeframes such as

intraday, daily, weekly and monthly charts

• For the Active Trend Trading System the 8 period

EMA has performed well in over 10 years of back

testing and live trading!

Back Testing SPY 2004 - 2013


• While using the 8 period EMA to trigger trades we

have found there are 3 stages which traders need

to be aware of

• Each of these stages carries a different reward/risk

profile and a different set of expectations

• The following charts highlight these stages on an

up trending chart

• Similar observations are applicable to down

trending conditions

Entering off the 8 Period EMA

Objectives

The initial 8 Period EMA Trigger (Daily)

1. Price Action Close above the 8 day EMA—triggers alert

2. Estimate a value of 8 period EMA & where it will be the following

day

3. Place Conditional Order at defined level (usually 0.10-0.50 above

8 day EMA), Stop Limit order to open position bouncing above

the defined level

4. Stop Loss 4% on Daily Triggers

5. Simple Profit Targets: T1 = Daily 5%-15%

T2 = Daily 15% - 25%

6. Other Profit Criteria can be used to stay with a trade longer

EXAMPLES—DAILY

Early Stage - Consolidation

Late Stage

1 2

1

2

3

Other Considerations

1. Market Conditions often tops a stocks trigger

2. Are prices pulling back to a lower moving

average? 20 day or 50 day

3. Whipsaw? More prevalent in Early and Late

Stages

4. Take the trades because—we never know exactly

which trade will be a worker and which will be a

slacker!

5 Objective Profit Exits

Entries tend to be easy. Anyone can get into a trade. But, properly exiting a trade requires understanding and planning

1. Objectively plan the stop loss because this establishes the size of the position based on a set level of pain your willing to endure. My threshold is 4-5%

2. Profit targets are often unplanned. Beginning traders will sometimes let big winners turn into losers because they have no plan for letting the market pay them.

“Vision is the art of Seeing Things Invisible!”

~~ Jonathan Swift

“People Only See What They are Prepared to See”

~~ Ralph Waldo Emerson

“Observe things how they are;

See things how they can be!”

~~ DWW

Copyright ATTS 2007-2016



1. Set Percentage, Fib Extensions, Symmetry

Extensions, Keltner or Moving Average

Extensions

Set Percentage: 5%, 10%, 15%, 20% from

Entry


10 %





Extensions


Entry

Fib Extension






Extensions


Entry

Fib Extension

Symmetry Extension


1

2

Symmetry where 1 ≈ 2





Extensions


Entry

Fib Extension

Symmetry Extension

Keltner or Moving Average Extensions






Extensions

2. Pivot High/Low


Uptrend: at each Pullback place a trailing stop slightly below a new swing low





Extensions

2. Pivot High/Low

3. 8 Period Moving Average


Close below the 8 period EMA—or a violationof the low of a close below the 8 period EMA

Entry





Extensions

2. Pivot High/Low


4. TSI – Up Tick or Down Tick


Cross Down – Take partial profit

Cross Up - Take price low of that day as new trailing stop





Extensions

2. Pivot High/Low


4. TSI

5. Engulfing Candlesticks


Engulfing Candlesticks: Close

at end of period or next period

on a violation of the low of the

engulfing pattern


- Set Percentage, Fib Extensions, Symmetry Extensions, Keltner or

Moving Average Extensions

- Pivot High/Low

- 8 Period Moving Average

- TSI -- Also works with Slow Stochastics

- Engulfing Candlesticks

5 Objective Profit Exits - Summary


What to Trade (Top Quality IBD Growth Stocks & Top Notch ETF’s)

The Active Trend Trading System

For ANY Market Condition ATTS Shows & Teaches members:

When to Enter: Entry Action Point

Pillar 5

Pillar 1

Pillar 2

Pillar 3

Pillar 4

When to Exit: Exit Action Points

What Strategy to Use

What to Expect

Our Motto: Clarify, Simplify & Multiply

The Active Trend Trading SystemOur Motto: Clarify, Simplify & Multiply

Three Point Strategies based on ATTS

Active Trend Trading System

Strategy II Basic

OptionsStrategy III

WealthBuilding &

Income Generation

Strategy I Stocks &

Index ETFs

ATTS Objectives: Provide a clear & simple trading systems for busy people! So they can become Wise, Profitable and Winning Traders!

1. Active Trend Trading Membership: $54.99 per month but you save 40% limit time:

$32.99

2. Early Warning Alerts for Index ETFs: Yearly membership $999 limited time:

$399.00/YearSave more than 60%

For “How To Make Money Trading Stocks” attendees go here for a special

membership offer:

http://activetrendtrading.com/monthly-membership-introduction/

http://activetrendtrading.com/monthly-membership-introduction/

Questions?

Thank you all

Finish 2016 Strong

Be Ready for Explosive Growth in 2017

Questions


Dennis W. Wilborn, Sr. [email protected]

http://www.activetrendtrading.com/

mailto:[email protected]

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