Analysis of data from a unique survey experiment

Adam B. Schaeff er, Ph .D.Center for Educat ional Freedom

Cato Inst i tute

How to Think and Talk About Education Tax Credits &

Vouchers

What Messages Work & Why

How Do Diff erent Arguments Impact the Expected Eff ects of Private Choice?

Are There Diff erences Between Eff ective Voucher & Credit Messages?

How to Talk About Private Choice Policies

What Policies Were Tested?

Vouchers: Government funds paid to families for use in obtaining a private education.

Personal Use Tax Credits: Tax credits given to individual taxpayers for education expenditures made on behalf of their own children.

Individual Donation Tax Credit: Tax credits given to individual taxpayers for donations to scholarship organizations that support private choice for lower income families.

Business Donation Tax Credit: Tax credits given to businesses for donations to scholarship organizations that support private choice for lower income families.

Benefit was pegged at $2,700 for all policies (in 2010 dollars).

What’s a Message “Frame?”

Message Frame: A frame “is a central organizing idea for

making sense of relevant events and suggesting what is at issue.”

Frames answer the question, “Why?” Why should the public care about the issue in the first

place? Why should a citizen do anything about it? Why should a politician do something about it? Why should one solution be adopted rather than

another?

How Were the Frames Tested?

Three messages (Frames, or emphases) were tested in separate combination with vouchers and tax credits.

The test was performed like a clinical drug trial; respondents were randomly assigned to one of 6 treatment conditions or one of 2 control groups.

Each frame, or emphasis, modified a basic overview of choice policy which noted that; parents will have more control achievement will increase due to competition/choice.

What Frames Were Tested?

Equity Frame: School choice is presented as a way to make educational opportunities and outcomes for lower-income children more equitable.

Financial Frame: School choice is presented as a way to help keep taxes low because private and other schools of choice cost less and parents spend education dollars more wisely than bureaucrats.

Moral Values Frame: School choice is presented as a way to help make sure schools teach good values, because parents know best what values their children should learn in school and would be able to choose good schools that teach them.

Support for Choice Policies, By Frame

(Scale from 1-Strongly Oppose, to 7-Strongly Favor; 4-Neither )

4.65

4.70

4.75

4.80

4.85

4.90

4.95

5.00

5.05

5.10

4.714.68

4.89

4.81

4.92 4.91

5.04

Control Moral Values Equity Financial

Note: Underlined Numbers in-dicate a statistically significant Frame impact.

So . . .

Why Does the Financial Frame Have the Most Consistent Positive Impact?

What’s Driving This Response?

NOTE: These results are from before the financial crisis.

It’s likely financial/cost concerns are even greater today.

What Performance Advantages are Most Important?

Perceptions of Public vs. Private School Performance

Increase in Rating for Local Private Schools Compared to Rating for Local Public School

Moral Values Efficiency Respect for Families

Academics0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%41%

35%

29%

16%

What Do the Regression Models Tell Us?

The perception that Private Schools use money more efficiently than Public Schools has the biggest and most consistent positive impact on support for private choice.

Perceived differences in academic achievement is second to efficiency and not always significant.

What’s Expected and Which Expectations Are Most Important?

Anticipated Effects of Private Choice

Expected Effect on Property Values Doesn’t Seem to Matter . . .

Expected Effect of Private Choice Policies on Property Values in Respondent’s Area

(Percent Choosing Decrease, Neither, or Increase)

Decrease Values Neither Increase Values0

10

20

30

40

50

60

12

51

38

Margin of Respondents Who Expect Policy to Increase Cost, Achievement & Equity

(Percent Choosing Increase minus Percent Decrease)

30

56 54

19

48 48

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Cost Academic Achievement

Educational Equity

Voucher Tax Credits

What Do the Regression Models Tell Us?

The expected effects on academic achievement has the biggest impact on support for private choice policies, followed by;

The impact on cost, and

The impact on educational equity.

Why Do People Think Vouchers Will Cost More?

Focus Group Results

Negative Associations

Tax Credits (16 percent of associations

were negative)

Vouchers (44 percent of associations

were negative)

“Higher taxes.” “Not as beneficial as tax credits.”

“When we talk about tax credits, I think of people who make a lot of money.”

“Sounds like a lot of people will receive something they don’t deserve.”

“Private schools getting rich off of this.” “Welfare/food stamps = vouchers.”

“If you don’t have children, you don’t get credit.” “. . . brings to mind food stamps.”

Source: Wirthlin Worldwide, 1998, “School Choice VISTA,” positioning strategy focus-group report.

How Do Different Frames Change What the Public Expects?

Impact of Frame on Expected Effect Policies Will Have on Educational Costs

(Scale from 1-Reduce A Lot, to 7-Increase A Lot; 4-Neither )

Vouchers Credits4.10

4.25

4.40

4.55

4.70

4.85

5.005.02

4.41

4.564.65

4.34

4.21

Control Moral Values Equity FinancialNote: Underlined Numbers in-dicate a statistically significant Frame impact.

Impact of Frame on Expected Effect Policies Will Have on Educational Achievement

(Scale from 1-Reduce A Lot, to 7-Increase A Lot; 4-Neither )

Vouchers Credits4.65

4.75

4.85

4.95

5.05

5.15

5.25

4.96

4.72

5.20

4.89

4.93

Control Moral Values Equity FinancialNote: Underlined Numbers in-dicate a statistically significant Frame impact.

Impact of Frame on Expected Effect Policies Will Have on Educational Equality

(Scale from 1-Reduce A Lot, to 7-Increase A Lot; 4-Neither )

Vouchers Credits4.70

4.80

4.90

5.00

5.10

5.20

4.93

4.75

5.15

Control Moral Values Equity FinancialNote: Underlined Numbers in-dicate a statistically significant Frame impact.

PARTY ID

POLICY KNOWLEDGE

PARENT/NON-PARENT

Demographics and Support for Private

Choice Policy

Democratic Margin of Support for Policies (By Knowledge of Policy)

5753

4652

4439

2225

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Individual Donation Credit

Business Donation Credit

Personal Use Credit

Voucher

Not Heard of Policy Heard of Policy

Democratic Margin of Support for Vouchers

(By Frame & Knowledge of Vouchers)

44

63

4954

36

19

41

5

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Control Equity Financial Moral Values

Not Heard of Vouchers Heard of Vouchers

Are Vouchers or Education Tax Credits More Popular?

Targeted or Broad-Based?

Margin of Support for School Choice Policies(Percent Favor minus Oppose)

Tax Credits Charters Vouchers

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

28

22

-12

Source: Howell, Peterson & West, 2010 Education Next-PEPG Survey

Margin of Support for Choice Policies (Percent Favor minus Opposition)

Individual Dona-tion Credit

Business Dona-tion Credit

Personal Use Credit

Voucher38

40

42

44

46

48

50 49

46

42 42

Margin of Support for Coverage Levels (Percent Support minus Opposition)

Tax Credits Vouchers-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2

-2

19

13

31

24

Low Income Middle Class All Families

Emphasize $$ Savings & Academic Improvements

Educational Equity Argument Can Help, But Also Cause Blowback!

Credits Are More Popular Than Vouchers

Broad-Based Coverage Is More Popular Than Targeted

Conclusions