how to model viral growth

7/28/2019 How to Model Viral Growth

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How to Model Viral Growth

Author Rahul Vohra

Walkthrough http://www.linkedin.com/today/post/article/20121002124206-188

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6785-how-to-model-viral-growth-the-hybrid-model



The Simplest Possible Model

Variables

Intial users 5,000 Viral factor 0.2

Output

Month Users (month start) Growth

1 5,000 1,000

2 6,000 200

3 6,200 40 4 6,240 8

5 6,248 2

6 6,250 0

7 6,250 0

8 6,250 0

9 6,250 0

10 6,250 0

11 6,250 0

12 6,250 0

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

1



2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Month

Users (month start)



The Hybrid Model

Variables

Launch press 70,000

App store search growth

App store downloads / month 40,000

% who activate 60%

App store search growth / month 24,000

Direct traffic growth

Direct traffic downloads / month 10,000

% who activate 60%

Direct traffic growth / month 6,000

Viral factor 0.2

Output

Month Users (month start) Launch press App store

1 - 70,000 24,000

2 104,000 - 24,000 3 158,800 - 24,000

4 203,760 - 24,000

5 246,752 - 24,000

6 289,350 - 24,000

7 331,870 - 24,000

8 374,374 - 24,000

9 416,875 - 24,000

10 459,375 - 24,000

11 501,875 - 24,000

12 544,375 - 24,000

13 586,875 - 24,000

14 629,375 - 24,000

15 671,875 - 24,000

16 714,375 - 24,000

17 756,875 - 24,000

18 799,375 - 24,000



19 841,875 - 24,000

20 884,375 - 24,000

21 926,875 - 24,000

22 969,375 - 24,000

23 1,011,875 - 24,000

24 1,054,375 - 24,000



Direct traffic Viral growth Total growth

10,000 104,000

10,000 20,800 54,800 10,000 10,960 44,960

10,000 8,992 42,992

10,000 8,598 42,598

10,000 8,520 42,520

10,000 8,504 42,504

10,000 8,501 42,501

10,000 8,500 42,500

10,000 8,500 42,500

10,000 8,500 42,500

10,000 8,500 42,500

10,000 8,500 42,500

10,000 8,500 42,500

10,000 8,500 42,500

10,000 8,500 42,500

10,000 8,500 42,500

10,000 8,500 42,500

-

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1 2 3 4

U



10,000 8,500 42,500

10,000 8,500 42,500

10,000 8,500 42,500

10,000 8,500 42,500

10,000 8,500 42,500

10,000 8,500 42,500



5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Month

ers (month start)



Virality as the Amplification Factor

Viral factor, v Amplification factor, a

- 1.00

0.10 1.11 0.20 1.25

0.30 1.43

0.40 1.67

0.50 2.00

0.60 2.50

0.70 3.33

0.80 5.00

0.90 10.00

0.95 20.00

0.98 40.00 0.99 100.00

-

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

- 0.10

A m p l i f i c a t i o n F a c t o r



a = 1.25

a = 1.67

a = 3.33

0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00

Viral Factor

mplification Factor vs. Viral Factor



The Hybrid Model, with Simple Loss

Variables

Launch press 70,000



% who activate 60%

App store search growth / month 24,000


Direct traffic downloads / month 10,000

% who activate 60%

Direct traffic growth / month 6,000

Viral factor 0.2

% of users lost / month 15%

Output

Month Users (month start) Launch press App store

1 - 70,000 24,000

2 104,000 - 24,000

3 143,200 - 24,000

4 166,680 - 24,000

5 184,670 - 24,000

6 199,568 - 24,000

7 212,152 - 24,000

8 222,833 - 24,000

9 231,909 - 24,000

10 239,623 - 24,000

11 246,180 - 24,000

12 251,753 - 24,000

13 256,490 - 24,000

14 260,516 - 24,000

15 263,939 - 24,000

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

1



16 266,848 - 24,000

17 269,321 - 24,000

18 271,423 - 24,000

19 273,209 - 24,000

20 274,728 - 24,000

21 276,019 - 24,000

22 277,116 - 24,000

23 278,049 - 24,000

24 278,841 - 24,000



Direct traffic Viral growth Gross growth Loss Net growth

10,000 104,000 - 104,000

10,000 20,800 54,800 (15,600) 39,200

10,000 10,960 44,960 (21,480) 23,480

10,000 8,992 42,992 (25,002) 17,990

10,000 8,598 42,598 (27,701) 14,898

10,000 8,520 42,520 (29,935) 12,584

10,000 8,504 42,504 (31,823) 10,681

10,000 8,501 42,501 (33,425) 9,076

10,000 8,500 42,500 (34,786) 7,714

10,000 8,500 42,500 (35,943) 6,557

10,000 8,500 42,500 (36,927) 5,573

10,000 8,500 42,500 (37,763) 4,737

10,000 8,500 42,500 (38,473) 4,027

10,000 8,500 42,500 (39,077) 3,423

10,000 8,500 42,500 (39,591) 2,909

2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Month

Users (month start)



10,000 8,500 42,500 (40,027) 2,473

10,000 8,500 42,500 (40,398) 2,102

10,000 8,500 42,500 (40,713) 1,787

10,000 8,500 42,500 (40,981) 1,519

10,000 8,500 42,500 (41,209) 1,291

10,000 8,500 42,500 (41,403) 1,097

10,000 8,500 42,500 (41,567) 933

10,000 8,500 42,500 (41,707) 793

10,000 8,500 42,500 (41,826) 674



The Retention Curve

Week Retention

1 81%

2 74%3 82%

4 65%

5 64%

6 62%

7 58%

8 53%

9 58%

10 54%

11 54%

12 55%13 47%

14 47%

15 43%

16 48%

17 49%

18 48%

19 49%

20 49%

21 45%

22 45%

23 44%

24 39%

25 39%

26 38%

27 39%

28 40%

29 41%

30 42%

31 45%

32 40%

33 42%

34 37%

35 38%

36 40%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 4 8 12 16

Weeks since u

Example Rete



20 24 28 32 36

er was acquired

ntion Curve



The Virality Curve

Month Viral Factor

1 0.2

2 0.13 0.05

4 0.025

5 0.0125

6 0.00625

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

1 2 3

V i r a l F a c t o r

Month since

Example Vir



4 5 6

user was acquired

lity Curve



The Hybrid Model, with Retention and Virality Curves

Variables

Launch press 70,000



% who activate 60%

App store search growth / week 24,000


Direct traffic downloads / week 10,000

% who activate 60%

Direct traffic growth / week 6,000

Virality

Viral factor decay 0.50

Viral factor month 1 0.20






Lifetime viral factor 0.39

Retention

Retention month 0 -> 1 65%






Output

Month Users (month start) Launch press App store Direct traffic

-4

-3

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

1 2 3



-2

-1

0

1 - 70,000 24,000 10,000

2 67,600 - 24,000 10,000

3 88,088 - 24,000 10,000

4 109,269 - 24,000 10,000

5 128,407 - 24,000 10,000

6 145,638 - 24,000 10,000

7 161,061 - 24,000 10,000

8 178,637 - 24,000 10,000

9 196,206 - 24,000 10,000

10 213,814 - 24,000 10,000

11 231,445 - 24,000 10,000

12 249,092 - 24,000 10,000

13 266,750 - 24,000 10,000

14 284,417 - 24,000 10,000

15 302,087 - 24,000 10,000

16 319,758 - 24,000 10,000

17 337,430 - 24,000 10,000

18 355,103 - 24,000 10,000

19 372,775 - 24,000 10,000

20 390,448 - 24,000 10,000

21 408,121 - 24,000 10,000

22 425,794 - 24,000 10,000 23 443,467 - 24,000 10,000

24 461,141 - 24,000 10,000



Viral growth Gross growth Loss Net growth

4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Month

Users (month start)

(60,000)

(40,000)

(20,000)

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

1 2 3 4

Growth C

Launch press App sto



104,000 (36,400) 67,600

13,520 47,520 (27,032) 20,488

11,898 45,898 (24,716) 21,181

11,245 45,245 (26,108) 19,138

10,859 44,859 (27,628) 17,231

10,629 44,629 (29,206) 15,423

10,493 44,493 (26,918) 17,576

10,295 44,295 (26,726) 17,569

10,244 44,244 (26,636) 17,608

10,217 44,217 (26,586) 17,631

10,201 44,201 (26,554) 17,647

10,193 44,193 (26,534) 17,658

10,188 44,188 (26,521) 17,667

10,185 44,185 (26,516) 17,670

10,184 44,184 (26,513) 17,671

10,184 44,184 (26,511) 17,672

10,183 44,183 (26,511) 17,673

10,183 44,183 (26,510) 17,673

10,183 44,183 (26,510) 17,673

10,183 44,183 (26,510) 17,673

10,183 44,183 (26,510) 17,673

10,183 44,183 (26,510) 17,673 10,183 44,183 (26,510) 17,673

10,183 44,183 (26,510) 17,673



5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

Month

annels and User Loss

re Direct traffic Viral growth Loss

how to model viral growth

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