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    How to Model Viral Growth

    Author Rahul Vohra

    Walkthrough http://www.linkedin.com/today/post/article/20121002124206-188

    Contact rahul@vohra.org.uk

    www.linkedin.com/in/rahulvohra

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    6785-how-to-model-viral-growth-the-hybrid-model

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    The Simplest Possible Model

    Variables

    Intial users 5,000Viral factor 0.2

    Output

    Month Users (month start) Growth

    1 5,000 1,000

    2 6,000 200

    3 6,200 404 6,240 8

    5 6,248 2

    6 6,250 0

    7 6,250 0

    8 6,250 0

    9 6,250 0

    10 6,250 0

    11 6,250 0

    12 6,250 0

    -

    1,000

    2,000

    3,000

    4,000

    5,000

    6,000

    7,000

    1

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    2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

    Month

    Users (month start)

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    The Hybrid Model

    Variables

    Launch press 70,000

    App store search growth

    App store downloads / month 40,000

    % who activate 60%

    App store search growth / month 24,000

    Direct traffic growth

    Direct traffic downloads / month 10,000

    % who activate 60%

    Direct traffic growth / month 6,000

    Viral factor 0.2

    Output

    Month Users (month start) Launch press App store

    1 - 70,000 24,000

    2 104,000 - 24,0003 158,800 - 24,000

    4 203,760 - 24,000

    5 246,752 - 24,000

    6 289,350 - 24,000

    7 331,870 - 24,000

    8 374,374 - 24,000

    9 416,875 - 24,000

    10 459,375 - 24,000

    11 501,875 - 24,000

    12 544,375 - 24,000

    13 586,875 - 24,000

    14 629,375 - 24,000

    15 671,875 - 24,000

    16 714,375 - 24,000

    17 756,875 - 24,000

    18 799,375 - 24,000

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    19 841,875 - 24,000

    20 884,375 - 24,000

    21 926,875 - 24,000

    22 969,375 - 24,000

    23 1,011,875 - 24,000

    24 1,054,375 - 24,000

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    Direct traffic Viral growth Total growth

    10,000 104,000

    10,000 20,800 54,80010,000 10,960 44,960

    10,000 8,992 42,992

    10,000 8,598 42,598

    10,000 8,520 42,520

    10,000 8,504 42,504

    10,000 8,501 42,501

    10,000 8,500 42,500

    10,000 8,500 42,500

    10,000 8,500 42,500

    10,000 8,500 42,500

    10,000 8,500 42,500

    10,000 8,500 42,500

    10,000 8,500 42,500

    10,000 8,500 42,500

    10,000 8,500 42,500

    10,000 8,500 42,500

    -

    100,000

    200,000

    300,000

    400,000

    500,000

    600,000

    1 2 3 4

    U

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    10,000 8,500 42,500

    10,000 8,500 42,500

    10,000 8,500 42,500

    10,000 8,500 42,500

    10,000 8,500 42,500

    10,000 8,500 42,500

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    5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

    Month

    ers (month start)

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    Virality as the Amplification Factor

    Viral factor, v Amplification factor, a

    - 1.00

    0.10 1.110.20 1.25

    0.30 1.43

    0.40 1.67

    0.50 2.00

    0.60 2.50

    0.70 3.33

    0.80 5.00

    0.90 10.00

    0.95 20.00

    0.98 40.000.99 100.00

    -

    1.00

    2.00

    3.00

    4.00

    5.00

    6.00

    7.00

    8.00

    9.00

    10.00

    - 0.10

    AmplificationFactor

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    a = 1.25

    a = 1.67

    a = 3.33

    0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00

    Viral Factor

    mplification Factor vs. Viral Factor

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    The Hybrid Model, with Simple Loss

    Variables

    Launch press 70,000

    App store search growth

    App store downloads / month 40,000

    % who activate 60%

    App store search growth / month 24,000

    Direct traffic growth

    Direct traffic downloads / month 10,000

    % who activate 60%

    Direct traffic growth / month 6,000

    Viral factor 0.2

    % of users lost / month 15%

    Output

    Month Users (month start) Launch press App store

    1 - 70,000 24,000

    2 104,000 - 24,000

    3 143,200 - 24,000

    4 166,680 - 24,000

    5 184,670 - 24,000

    6 199,568 - 24,000

    7 212,152 - 24,000

    8 222,833 - 24,000

    9 231,909 - 24,000

    10 239,623 - 24,000

    11 246,180 - 24,000

    12 251,753 - 24,000

    13 256,490 - 24,000

    14 260,516 - 24,000

    15 263,939 - 24,000

    -

    50,000

    100,000

    150,000

    200,000

    250,000

    300,000

    1

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    16 266,848 - 24,000

    17 269,321 - 24,000

    18 271,423 - 24,000

    19 273,209 - 24,000

    20 274,728 - 24,000

    21 276,019 - 24,000

    22 277,116 - 24,000

    23 278,049 - 24,000

    24 278,841 - 24,000

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    Direct traffic Viral growth Gross growth Loss Net growth

    10,000 104,000 - 104,000

    10,000 20,800 54,800 (15,600) 39,200

    10,000 10,960 44,960 (21,480) 23,480

    10,000 8,992 42,992 (25,002) 17,990

    10,000 8,598 42,598 (27,701) 14,898

    10,000 8,520 42,520 (29,935) 12,584

    10,000 8,504 42,504 (31,823) 10,681

    10,000 8,501 42,501 (33,425) 9,076

    10,000 8,500 42,500 (34,786) 7,714

    10,000 8,500 42,500 (35,943) 6,557

    10,000 8,500 42,500 (36,927) 5,573

    10,000 8,500 42,500 (37,763) 4,737

    10,000 8,500 42,500 (38,473) 4,027

    10,000 8,500 42,500 (39,077) 3,423

    10,000 8,500 42,500 (39,591) 2,909

    2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

    Month

    Users (month start)

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    10,000 8,500 42,500 (40,027) 2,473

    10,000 8,500 42,500 (40,398) 2,102

    10,000 8,500 42,500 (40,713) 1,787

    10,000 8,500 42,500 (40,981) 1,519

    10,000 8,500 42,500 (41,209) 1,291

    10,000 8,500 42,500 (41,403) 1,097

    10,000 8,500 42,500 (41,567) 933

    10,000 8,500 42,500 (41,707) 793

    10,000 8,500 42,500 (41,826) 674

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    The Retention Curve

    Week Retention

    1 81%

    2 74%3 82%

    4 65%

    5 64%

    6 62%

    7 58%

    8 53%

    9 58%

    10 54%

    11 54%

    12 55%13 47%

    14 47%

    15 43%

    16 48%

    17 49%

    18 48%

    19 49%

    20 49%

    21 45%

    22 45%

    23 44%

    24 39%

    25 39%

    26 38%

    27 39%

    28 40%

    29 41%

    30 42%

    31 45%

    32 40%

    33 42%

    34 37%

    35 38%

    36 40%

    0%

    10%

    20%

    30%

    40%

    50%

    60%

    70%

    80%

    90%

    100%

    0 4 8 12 16

    Weeks since u

    Example Rete

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    20 24 28 32 36

    er was acquired

    ntion Curve

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    The Virality Curve

    Month Viral Factor

    1 0.2

    2 0.13 0.05

    4 0.025

    5 0.0125

    6 0.00625

    0

    0.05

    0.1

    0.15

    0.2

    0.25

    1 2 3

    ViralFactor

    Month since

    Example Vir

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    4 5 6

    user was acquired

    lity Curve

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    The Hybrid Model, with Retention and Virality Curves

    Variables

    Launch press 70,000

    App store search growth

    App store downloads / month 40,000

    % who activate 60%

    App store search growth / week 24,000

    Direct traffic growth

    Direct traffic downloads / week 10,000

    % who activate 60%

    Direct traffic growth / week 6,000

    Virality

    Viral factor decay 0.50

    Viral factor month 1 0.20

    Viral factor month 2 0.10

    Viral factor month 3 0.05

    Viral factor month 4 0.03

    Viral factor month 5 0.01

    Viral factor month 6 0.01

    Lifetime viral factor 0.39

    Retention

    Retention month 0 -> 1 65%

    Retention month 0 -> 2 55%

    Retention month 0 -> 3 51%

    Retention month 0 -> 4 48%

    Retention month 0 -> 5 44%

    Retention month 0 -> 6 40%

    Output

    Month Users (month start) Launch press App store Direct traffic

    -4

    -3

    -

    50,000

    100,000

    150,000

    200,000

    250,000

    300,000

    1 2 3

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    -2

    -1

    0

    1 - 70,000 24,000 10,000

    2 67,600 - 24,000 10,000

    3 88,088 - 24,000 10,000

    4 109,269 - 24,000 10,000

    5 128,407 - 24,000 10,000

    6 145,638 - 24,000 10,000

    7 161,061 - 24,000 10,000

    8 178,637 - 24,000 10,000

    9 196,206 - 24,000 10,000

    10 213,814 - 24,000 10,000

    11 231,445 - 24,000 10,000

    12 249,092 - 24,000 10,000

    13 266,750 - 24,000 10,000

    14 284,417 - 24,000 10,000

    15 302,087 - 24,000 10,000

    16 319,758 - 24,000 10,000

    17 337,430 - 24,000 10,000

    18 355,103 - 24,000 10,000

    19 372,775 - 24,000 1