how to model the future scenario for china with a dynamic

1

How to model the future scenario for China with a Dynamic Economy

Kejun [email protected]

Energy Research Institute, China

Workshop on GHG Stabilization ScenariosTsukuba, Japan on January 22-23, 2004

ERI, ChinaERI, China

2

Energy Production and Consumption in China

0200400600800

1000120014001600

1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Year

Mill

ion

tce

Production

Consumption

3

CO2 emission in China

4

CO2 Emission in China

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090

Year

Bill

ion

t-C

S1

S2

S3

S4

S5

S6

5

Premary Energy Elasticity

0. 000. 100. 200. 300. 400. 500. 600. 70

S1 S3 S5CS

:基准线

CS:低替代方案

EDM-M

edium

ERI:C

ESS-

Low

ERI:C

ESS-

HighCC

E200

0:ED

CCE1

997:

BAI

M/SRE

S-C

AIM/S

RES-

STI

MER-A

1TI

MER-B

1

6

Energy Production and Consumption in China

0200400600800

1,0001,2001,4001,600

1952

1965

1978

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

years

mill

ion

TCE

ProductionConsumptionc

7

CO2 Emission Trends in China

-1000

-500

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Year

Emis

sion

s (T

g-C

O2) Coal Combustion

Oil CombustionGas CombustionBiofuel CombustionCement ProductionBiomass BurningCarbon Uptake

8

IPAC-Emission

Population: China

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.0

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Year

Bill

ion

S1

S2

S3

S4

S5

S6

CS:基准线

CS:替代方案

CS:低替代方案

ERI-CEED

LES

ERI:CESS-Low

ERI:CESS-Medium

ERI:CESS-High

CCE1997:BaU

EDM

CCE2000:ED

Tsinghua-MARKAL

Tsinghua

AIM/China

SGM-China

AIM/SRES-C

AIM/SRES-D

AIM/SRES-S

AIM/SRES-E

TIMER A1

GDP of Chi na

0

50

100

150

200

250

1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Year

Tri.Y

uan(

1990

Pric

e)

S1

S2

S3

S4

S5

S6

CS:基准线

CS:替代方案

CS:低替代方案

ERI -CEED

LES

ERI :CESS-Low

ERI :CESS-Medi um

ERI :CESS-Hi gh

CCE2000:BaU

CCE2000:ED

CCE1997:A

CCE1997:B

Tsi nghua-MARKAL

AIM/SRES-C

AIM/SRES-D

AIM/SRES-S

AIM/SRES-E

TIMER-A1

TIMER-A2

TIMER-B1

TIMER-B2

EDM-Hi gh

EDM-Medi um

EDM Low

Primary Energy in China

020406080

100120

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Year

100M

tce

S1

S2

S3

S4

S5

S6

CS:基准线

CS:替代方案

CS:低替代方案

ERI-CEED

LES

ERI:CESS-Low

ERI:CESS-Medium

ERI:CESS-High

CCE1997:A

CCE1997:B

CCE2000:BaU

CCE2000:ED

Tsinghua-MARKAL

AIM/SRES-C

AIM/SRES-D

AIM/SRES-S

AIM/SRES-E

TIMER-A1

TIMER-A2

TIMER-B1

TIMER-B2

Final energy in China

0

1020

30

4050

60

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Year

100M

tce

S1

S2

S3

S4

S5

S6

国家研究Baseline

国家研究替代方案

国家研究的增方案替代方案经济长

中国能源略研究战：低方案

中国能源略研究战：中方案

中国能源略研究战：高方案

Tsinghua-MARKAL

AIM/China

SGM-China

AIM/SRES-C

AIM/SRES-D

AIM/SRES-S

AIM/SRES-E

9

GDP Per Capita

42318

31707 30845 2895926071

12068

5462

769

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

35000

40000

45000

Japan Germany America France Singapore Korea The average China

10

The urbanization course in China

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

The urbanization level of othercountries in 1995

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Korea Ameri ca Japan France Germany

中国的城市化程进 1995年其它国家的城市化水平

The urbanization course in China

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

The urbanization level of othercountries in 1995

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Korea Ameri ca Japan France Germany

中国的城市化程进 1995年其它国家的城市化水平

11

Average living area per capita, m2

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

rural area in China

urban area in China

Japan(1993)

America(1995)

North Europe

England(1992)

Canada

12

01020304050607080

car s

tock

for1

00pe

rson

s

Japa

nGerm

any

America

France

Singap

oreAus

tralia

China EU

Car Ownership

13

GDP Growth Rate in China

0. 02. 0

4. 06. 0

8. 010. 0

12. 014. 0

16. 0

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

1998

2000

2002

Year

%

14

Steel output in China

0

50100

150

200

250300

350

1978

1980

1985

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2010

2030

2010

2030

2010 other

Year

Mill

ion t

on

IPAC-

AIM2000

IPAC-

AIM2003

15

Motor Vehicles Output in China

012345678

1978

1980

1985

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2010

2020

2030

Year

Milli

on

16

Per Capita Residence Floor Space

05

1015202530

1989 1997 2001 2002Year

m2 Citry

Rural

17

Space Floor Completed

0200400600800

10001200

1985

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

Year

Milli

on m

2

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Economy Target of China in 2020

Government Target: Overall wealthy societyOn the basis of economy structure optimal and increasing profit, GDP will be four time in 2020 comparing with that in 2000，realize fundamental industrialization”；Take a new way for industry development；“continually increase ability for sustainable development”；

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Framework of IPAC

IPAC-SGM

IPAC-AIM/tech

IPAC-Emission

IPAC/Tech

IPAC-TIMER

IPAC/AIM-Local

Energy demand and supplyPrice/investmentEconomic impactMedium/long-term analysis

Region analysisMedium/short analysisEnergy demand and supplyTechnology policy

Medium/short term analysisTechnology assessmentDetailed technology flow

IPAC-MATERIAL

Energy demand and supplFull range emissionPrice, resource, technologMedium-long term analysisEconomic impact

Environment industryPollutant emissionMedium/long-term analys

Technology developmentEnvironment impactTechnology policy

AIM-air IPAC-health

Energy demand and supplyPrice/investmentMedium/long-term analysis


20

Co-benefit to Consistency: climate and development

Identify domestic development plan

Domestic energy/land use policies

Looking for consistency

Help developing countries for their own purpose based on the consistency


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Unit Energy Use in Steel Making Industry

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

Year

kgce

Large ConvertorContinuous Casting

Large Blast Furnace

Coke Dry Quenching

Coal Powder InjectionTRT

Fluit Gas Recovery DCF COREX

EF

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IPAC-AIM/Technology:

CO2 Emission Reduction Cost

020406080

100120140

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500

Accum ula ted Em ission Reduction, Million t-C

CO

st, U

S$

Agricult

Industry

Transport

Service

Urban

Rural

23

Marginal Abatement Cost: IPAC-Emission model

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

550

0 200 400 600 800 1000MtC

US$

/tC

USA OECD- P OECD- W EFSU Chi na

S. E. Asi a M. E Af r i ca L. A

24

AIM/Technology

CO2 emi ssi on

0. 00E+005. 00E+141. 00E+151. 50E+152. 00E+152. 50E+153. 00E+153. 50E+15

2000

2003

2006

2009

2012

2015

2018

2021

2024

2027

2030

Year

g-C

Pol i cyMarketFrozen

25

Impact mitigation on Chinese economy

2010 2020 2030 2050 2075 2100

650 -0.10% -0.10% 1.20% 1.10% 0.90% 0.90%

550 -0.20% -0.20% 1.90% 2.00% 2.00% 2.40%

450 1.40% 2.30% 2.90% 3.70% 3.90% 4.80%

Per Capita Emission -0.20% -0.20% -0.10% -0.10% 0.70% 1.50%

Carbon Intensity -0.20% -0.20% -0.10% -0.10% -0.20% -0.20%

650 -1.50% -1.70% 18.80% 22.60% 27.70% 30.50%

550 -2.60% -2.40% 29.10% 40.60% 51.60% 58.00%

450 14.70% 30.00% 41.60% 62.40% 69.00% 75.00%

Per Capita Emission -2.60% -2.40% -1.90% -1.80% 27.30% 48.50%

Carbon Intensity -2.60% -2.40% -1.90% -1.80% -4.00% -3.10%

GDP loss，％

CO2 reduction rate，%

Marginal Abatement Cost: IPAC-SGM model

Change of GDP by CDM implementation in China

0.00%0.02%0.04%0.06%0.08%0.10%

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Ye ar

%

Marginal Abatement Cost: IPAC-SGM model

Emission reduction by CDM implementation

0

5

10

15

20

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Ye ar

Mt-

C

28

An easy way

More flexible market-multilateral/bilateral/global

Technology R&D/international collaboration

Domestic policies

Criticism system: reporting


29

Next

Modeling focus on technology change and domestic policies: demand from energy planning

Driver analysis by using IPAC-AIM/Technology, join the forum for energy scenario

Study for city or province: Beijing, Chongqing, Taiyuan, Ningxia

After Kyoto

Multi-gas analysis


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UK: A Low Carbon Economy

60％ emission reduction by 2050, and hope other developed country join

By using various countermeasures

Not much impact on economy: 0.5%-2% in 2050


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UK:Countermeasures

Emission trading: volunteer trading system

Energy efficiency increasing:companies, household and public utilities

Natural gas import

Extension of competitive energy market

Technology innovation: hydrogen, renewable energy, CHP and new energy conservation technology

Work together with I8 and EU for technology R&D


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UK: technologies

Offshore power generation(Wave, tide and wind)

CHP(local biomass, waste, wind, tide)

Mini-power generation(polygeneration, feul cell, PV)

New building design(0 emission)

Fuel cell

Transport(Hybrid, bio-fuel, hydrogen)

Nuclear fusion


33

Others

Similar countermeasure package

Different target(only for Kyoto)

US, Japan, EU


34

Policies contribute to climate change

aEconomic policies to promote tertiary industry aClean energy supply policy: natural gasaRenewable energy development: national wind plan,

hydropoweraClean coal technology promotionaHigh efficiency technology: green lighting, energy

efficiency standardaClean production aClose low efficiency and small scale factoryaTechnology R&D: 863 high-tech project, 973 research

planaEmission standardaSO2 emission marketa…

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What’s for China

aTaking action in some senseaBut hard to make political commitmentaPolicy implementationaNot difficult to combine climate change and domestic

developmentaShould prepare 20 year national plan, and think about

2050 long-term strategyaChina follow well the experience on energy policies and

countermeasureaTechnology is difficult/importantaDiscussion about technology transfer/localization

36

2004 is important

a“Eleventh-Five Year Plan”a“National Climate change strategy”aEnergy forecasting/scenarioaIntegrating with local development/at early time

37

Modeling activities

aThink about near or medium term policy implementationaTechnology diffusion, R&DaWhat’s the impact of UK proposalaAfter Kyoto: meaning of Participation/ new framework

how to model the future scenario for china with a dynamic

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