how to get started with conversion attribution
TRANSCRIPT
March 4th, 2015
Attributing the Search Assist –
How to Get Started
Nick LindauerForthea Interactive
VP, Operations & Client Service
@forthea | @nlindauer
searchmarketingexpo.com@forthea | @nlindauer
#SMX #24C
searchmarketingexpo.com@forthea | @nlindauer
#SMX #24C
searchmarketingexpo.com@forthea | @nlindauer
#SMX #24C
“Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted; the trouble is I don't know which half.”
~ John Wanamaker
searchmarketingexpo.com@forthea | @nlindauer
#SMX #24C
Last click is dead
Should PPCers be scared?
NO.
searchmarketingexpo.com@forthea | @nlindauer
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Source: A commissioned study conducted by Forrester Consulting on behalf of Google, September 2013
66% of advertisers who use attribution have increased spend in digital
21% of those advertisers increased spend across all digital channels
Digital Spend Increases!
searchmarketingexpo.com@forthea | @nlindauer
#SMX #24C
Source: A commissioned study conducted by Forrester Consulting on behalf of Google, September 2013
searchmarketingexpo.com@forthea | @nlindauer
#SMX #24C
“attribution ultimately affects bonuses and the pockets of people involved. You have to deal with the politics first or you won’t get buy-in, you’ll get resistance.”
Analytics Manager, Online Retailer
Prepare for War
searchmarketingexpo.com@forthea | @nlindauer
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Attribution is not optimization
Attribution modeling will not solve optimization decisions
Attribution is really explaining what has happened in the past to help you make decisions for the future
Remember
searchmarketingexpo.com@forthea | @nlindauer
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Determine if you need attribution (hint, 95% yes!)
No Attribution Problems• 90% conversions come from 1-2 visits• Short Sales cycle – minutes
Attribution Problems• Long Sales cycle - days, weeks, months• Multi-channel retailer• Non-ecommerce• More then 10% of conversions come from 2+ visits
Step 1: Do you have a problem?
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• Online-Offline• Multi-Device • Multi-Channel• Intra-Channel• Other
How I can improve ROI across all marketing channels?If I spend in outdoor, how will it impact my paid search campaigns?How can I make my search campaigns more effective?Should I continue to buy display ads?
Step 2: What’s the problem?
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• Math & Data Interpretation• Tools (GA, Visual IQ…)• $ and Time• Buy In• Power to Move• Identify Issues
Step 3: Assemble the Team
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1. Attribution is not the be all end all answer2. All Attribution models have got “missing touch points”3. Data integration is the key to fixing attribution issues4. Attribution is much more than Google Analytics5. There is no attribution without understanding ZMOT (0 moment of truth)6. Not all touch points are equally valuable – but all touch points may have
value7. Not all conversion paths/channels mix are equally important for attribution8. Focusing on a single channel is not attribution9. Attribution modelling is not a onetime activity10. Complex attribution model = no adoption11. Attribution models are subject to personal biases
Step 4: Set the expectations
Source: OptimizeSmart
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Define the target• Age-group• Gender• Education• Income• Likings• Ethnicity• Lifestyle• Geo location
Understand the Journey• Desires & Expectations• Level of Use• Common Objections• Decision Process• Buying Triggers
Step 5: Identify the Customer
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80/20 Rule
Aka the Pareto Principle: roughly 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes
Focus on that 20% and only that 20%
Step 6: Prioritize the Problems
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Hypothesis: We should stop PPC because we rank #1 in organic search (on select non-branded terms)
• Determine previous 6-12 month value of assisted conversions & last click conversion for organic
• Create a custom segment to remove PPC from data & apply• Again, note the assisted conversions & last click conversion
for organic• Determine percentage change between the two• Determine profitability & projected loss (if any)
Step 7: Theorize & Test
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Is 16% of your sales worth the 5% spend on PPC?
Step 7: Sample
Assisted Conversion Value Direct Conversion Value Total Value
With PPC $350,450.00 $230,832.00 $581,282.00
Without PPC $285,956.00 $200,154.00 $486,110.00
% Change -18% -13% -16%
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Make recommendations for changesThis is where egos come inTread lightly
Step 8: Recommendations
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Begin again but with different problems
Step 9: Repeat
searchmarketingexpo.com@forthea | @nlindauer
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Challenge: • Client was using last click attribution• Paid search non-brand keywords had low
ROI• They considered cutting spend by more
then 75%
Case Study #1
Results:• Attribution modeling showed that the
keywords assisted many conversions and had good ROI
• Non-brand PPC spend increased 15%, increased revenue and hit ROI goals
searchmarketingexpo.com@forthea | @nlindauer
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Challenge• A multi-brand home services company
was unsure of display ad ROI• Last-click said assisted 2% of sales• View-through said 25% of sales
Case Study #2
Results• Attribution modeling showed that display
ads contributed 9% of sales• Further digging results in a new display
plan, increasing spend on select placements
searchmarketingexpo.com@forthea | @nlindauer
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Challenge• Client wanted to “go nuclear” on paid
search• Could not justify spending on paid
search since all sales happened offline• Felt “billboards” drove more interactions
Case Study #3
Results: • “Nuclear” test was avoided through
modeling• Client increased spend by 115% in
PPC• Billboards have now been discontinued
searchmarketingexpo.com@forthea | @nlindauer
#SMX #24C
“We’ve been working on client attribution long enough to realize that a lot of our general assumptions are dead wrong. Every client is different, every product is different. Just because display carried a lot of weight in the last project doesn’t meant that it will in the next one.”
- Google Agency Analytics Manager, focused on CPG
Not one size fits all
searchmarketingexpo.com@forthea | @nlindauer
#SMX #24C