How to evaluate China GDP growth with the impact of SARS by Meta-synthesis System Approach

NSFC Major project 79990580

September 11, 2003

IIASA CSM Special Session on Meta-Synthesis

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Contents

• Brief introduction to the Metasynthesis System Approach

• Introduction to a collaborative Tool: PathMaker

• Introduction to Experiment– Test Flow– PathMaker Template– Strength & Weakness

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Brief introduction to the Metasynthesis System Approach

• Metasynthesis approach aims to unite organically the data, information, model and experience to solve the open complex giant system problems.

• The design of Hall of Workshop for Meta-synthetic Engineering (HWMSE) contributes to collect and develop the knowledge and wisdom or creation directly from experts and decision makers who attend the discussion meeting in this Hall.

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Knowledge System

Reform World

Result Recognition of World

Machine System

PropositionExpert System

Social Recognition

Social Practice

Objective World

Generic Framework of HWMSE

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Qualitative Meta-Synthesis

Qualitative-Quantitative Meta-Synthesis

Meta-SynthesisFrom Qualitative Hypothesis to

Quantitative Validation

Contents of Meta-synthesis

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For realizing the MSA we design a flowchart: from synchronous meeting I to asynchronous analysis, then synchronous meeting II. If the problem is not solving ,we will iterate this process again and again until getting some solution, or consensus.

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Synchronous I

Asynchronous

Synchronous II

Meeting Process in HWMSE

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Synchronous IAsynchronous

Synchronous II

Data

Information

Knowledge

Case

Divergent

Convergent

ECB, GAE, etc.

PathMaker

Hypotheses,

Scenarios

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AsynchronousSynchronous I Synchronous II

Modeling by Mechanism

Modeling by Rules

Modeling by Data

Modeling by Learning

Modeling by Evolutionary

Scenario

Econometric Model

Time Series,

RA

Modeling by Case

Multi-Agent Simulation

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Synchronous IIAsynchronousSynchronous I

Possibly Satisfying Approach

Meta-Synthesis System

Reconstruction

AHP, Nominal Group,

ECB

PathMaker, ExpertChoice

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AsynchronousSynchronous I Synchronous II

Modeling Agent

Seminar Room(Xi’an)

Seminar Room(Beijing)

Main Hall(Beijing) (see Dai,

Cui & Li’s reports)

Decision Technologies

Agent

Introduction to a collaborative Tool: PathMaker

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• As a software tool for assisting teams or individuals to improve their projects or solving problems by discussion and analysis.

• We use it as a tool for applying MSA to solving the problems in the macroeconomic system.

• Some other tools or methods are also applied, such as Group Argumentation Environment, Data mining and some economic models as mentioned before.

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5 components

8 kinds of tools

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Starting a project with Pathway

• Pathway is an important concept of PathMaker, Each project follows a pathway. The pathway is the backbone of a project, providing access to tools, meetings, and just-in-time instruction. Users make project plan, use different tools, arrange meeting, create agenda and so on in the Project Pathway.

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The Pathway of MSA Test in IIASA by PathMaker /1

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The Pathway of MSA Test in IIASA by PathMaker /2

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Other four parts along with a Project Pathway: • Project Information: All the information about the pr

ojects can be included in Project Information.

• Team Member: The information of all the team member, including members’ names, passwords, limitation, and their responsibility are recorded and managed here.

• Action Items: Includes ID, description, person responsible, deadline and status.

• Discussion History: Every team member can design and trigger an on-line discussion, either in a intranet or in internet

Introduction to IIASA Experiment

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Preparation

• One preparation meeting for discussion Time, Place, Team Members, Meeting Tools and Action Items in the meeting.– Place:Conference room in IIASA

– Chairman: Jifa Gu and Makowski Marek

– Team Member:

– Meeting Tools: computers; projectors; printer; reticles and Software (PathMaker, Expert Choice, Internet)

– Meeting Action Item:

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Prepare Meeting M0

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M1-1 Free Discussion

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Free Discussion by Brainstorming / Affinity Tool

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Group Argumentation by GAE (See Tang’s report)

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Registration to GAE/Pathmaker

ID Name password

Beulens Adrie Beulens adrie

Makowski Marek Makowski marek

Naka Y. Nakamori naka

Pawlak Zdzislaw Pawlak pawl

Granat Janusz Granat granat

Michal W.Michalowsk michal

Lewan A. Lewandowski lewan

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M1-3 Further Discussion

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• Cause and effect diagram is a versatile tool for arranging ideas in a tree structure. Cause & Effect Tool can be used to discover the reasons for a certain result. It denotes the cause-effect relationship in a tree form. Uses include the traditional fault tree or root cause analysis, organization diagramming, parts hierarchies, project planning, tree diagrams, and the 5 Whys.

• Force Field Tool can be used to analyze and display the driving forces and restraining forces of a transformation. It is composed of four columns. From the left to right, the first column denotes the driving forces, the second denotes how strong the driving forces are, the third denotes how strong the restraining forces are and the fourth denotes the restraining forces.

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Cause and effect diagram about High development scenario

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Force Field Analysis

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Analysis

Use different models to making analysis of macroeconomic system

• Model I: Modeling by knowing mechanism of system,e.g. econometric model (See Zhou’s report)

• Model II: Modeling by Data, such as some Data Mining models (See Tian’s report)

• Model III: System Reconstructability Analysis (see Gu’s report)

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Consensus Building Tool

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Using Consensus Builder not only can evaluate and quantify opinions, but also can structurize the discussion. There are three methods users can use to build consensus with this tool, which are:

1. Rating Vote

2. Multivote

3. Group Multivote

Discussion of Strength and Weakness(all participants)

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