How to asses and monitor the e-commerce in CITES species? Andrzej Kepel Borys Kala Budapest, June 2014 CITES SA of Poland Is it possible to monitor the whole Internet trade in CITES species? No! Is it possible to monitor the whole e-trade in CITES species in one country or a language? No! Is it possible to asses the real scale of the whole e-trade in CITES species in one country or a language? No! So, why we should make a monitoring of e-trade in CITES species? What information can be usefull? To observe trends Are these goals achivable? To compare (e.g. countries) To plan and check effectiveness of enforcement efforts To detect new phenomena 3 main kinds of surveys of e-trade in CITES species: Each one requires different methods Detailed survey of one taxon Looking for illegal offers General monitoring Survey of a taxon Search for illegal offers GENERAL MONITORING METHOD - developed by - invented by - used in 9 countries (in CEE Europe and S America) SCOPE OF MONITORING One country or one language Animals only, plants only or some smaller but variable group of species A monitoring consists of: analysis of collected data Internet surveys (e.g., once a year) detailed 1-day scan of selected pages (~20) full searching for selected species (~6) SELECTION OF PAGES FOR SCANING biggest services in the country (including international services) different kind of services (auction sites, advertising services, thematic forums, e-shops etc.) different groups of species and kinds of specimens - SELECTION OF SPECIES FOR SURVEYS (country or language specific) representatives of different taxa representatives of different categories of specimens common, but not too numerous in trade limited number of names name is not too popular in non-wildlife trade SELECTION OF SPECIES FOR SURVEYS Examples: blue coral (souvenirs, jewelry, live) emperor scorpion (live, whole dead) crocodilians (skin products, souvenirs, live) green iguana (live) grey parrot (live) bears (trophies, hides, parts, medicines, other derivatives, live) WAYS OF SURVEY Page scan detailed checking of a service for all CITES/UE WTR species (checking of categories + keywords) Searching for species everywhere in Internet, except pages selected for scaning) (keywords in Google + checking of pages) TIME RANGE OF A SURVEY Offeres no older than 2 months, present on one day (different services, part of services or species can be checked on different days) DATA COLLECTED Part of survey (page / species) Species (higher taxa, appendices, anexes) Kind of specimen (category) Quantity (with units) WWW service (category) Price per item (with currency) Other (e.g. region, legality) DATA ANALYSIS Cxy = (Sxy + Pxy) / Sxy x country/language y year Cxy minimum data correction coefficient for a country/language and a year Sxy number of offers found in searching for species Pxy number of offers of selected species found on scanned pages MINIMUM DATA CORRECTION COEFFICIENT DATA ANALYSIS For quantitive analysis and comparisions, data from page scanning are multiplied by coefficient Cxy MINIMUM DATA CORRECTION COEFFICIENT Coeffcients of minimum data correction in 2011 countryBGCZHUPLRORSSKUA Cx 11 1,61,43,11,52,21,21,31,1 If coefficient higher than 4 increase number of surveyed services DATA ANALYSIS Assumptions 1.One sale offer = offer of one or more specimens of the same species and the same type, on a single website DATA ANALYSIS 2.If information about number of offered specimens is missing: - several = 5 specimens - large/any number = 30 spec. [100 in case of arachnids] - unknown number = 1 specimen DATA ANALYSIS Assumptions 3.If the information about the price is missing: avarage price of similar specimens is used for analysis DATA ANALYSIS Estimated average numbers of CITES specimens offers available on one day on the Internet in Poland in the years 2004, 2006, 2007, 2009, 2011 POLAND EXAMPLES OF RESULTS TheaveragetotalvalueofsalesoffersofCITESanimalspeciesinsevencountries (6) in2009.DatafromEuropeaccordingtoCEEwe b The avarage total value of one day sales offers in CITES animal species in seven countries in 2009 EXAMPLES OF RESULTS Estimated average number of CITES specimens' offers available on one day on the websites of monitored countries in 2009 and 2011 EXAMPLES OF RESULTS Estimated average number of CITES specimens offered for sale available on the Internet in the monitored countries on one day per 100 thousand citizens in 2009 and 2011 EXAMPLES OF RESULTS Estimated average number of CITES specimens offered for sale, available on the Internet in the monitored countries on one day, per 100 thousand Internet users in 2009 and 2011 EXAMPLES OF RESULTS Percentage share of different systematic groups of species, which were offered for sale on the Internet in the monitored countries in 2011 EXAMPLES OF RESULTS Estimated share of nine leading services in the Internet trade on CITES animal species in Ecuador Division of the monitored sales offers in terms of legality EXAMPLES OF RESULTS HOW MUCH WORK IT REQUIRES? 1 survey: ~10-20 man-days + ~5 man-days for data analysis WORKSHOP (TRAINING) FOR INTERESTED ENFORCEMENT INSTITUTIONS FROM CEE COUNTRIES IN 2015