how technological innovation happens
DESCRIPTION
"How Does Technological Innovation Happen?" W. Brian ArthurTRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
The Nature of TechnologyThe Nature of Technology
Feb 10, 2011
W. Brian Arthur
External Professor, Santa Fe Institute and
Intelligent Systems Lab, PARC
![Page 2: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
How does technology evolve? How does technology evolve?
• Novel technologies arise by putting together existing technologies (by combination)
© 2010 W. Brian Arthur 2
![Page 3: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
© 2011 W. Brian Arthur 3
![Page 4: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
© 2010 W. Brian Arthur 4
Ogburn’s Claim (1922)Ogburn’s Claim (1922)
William Fielding OgburnSocial Change, 1922
“It would seem that the larger theequipment of material culture, thegreater the number of inventions.The more there is to invent with,the greater will be th e number of
inventions. When the existingmaterial culture is small,embracing a stone technique and aknowledge of skins and somewoodwork, the number ofinventions is more limited thanwhen the culture consists of aknowledge of a variety of m etalsand chemicals and the use ofsteam, electricity, and variousmechanical principles such as thescrew, the wheel, the lever, thepiston, belts, pulleys, etc. Thestreet car could not h ave beeninvented from the material cultureexisting at the last glacial period.The discovery of the power ofsteam and the mechanicaltechnology existing at the timemade possible a l arge number ofinventions.”
![Page 5: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
© 2011 W. Brian Arthur 5
The Evolution of Technology The Evolution of Technology (Steps)(Steps)
1. Novel element forms as combination from existing elements. Accepted if provides a needed functionality, and is technically and economically viable
2. Novel element replaces techs and components with similar functionality across the collective
3. Adds to the substrate of elements to construct from
![Page 6: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
© 2011 W. Brian Arthur 6
Evolution of Technology Evolution of Technology (Steps cont’d)(Steps cont’d)
4. Novel element generates new needs- for supporting methods and arrangements - for methods to overcome limitations - for techs to broaden functionalities
5. New element destroys replaced technologies’ niches for their dependent technologies
6. The economy adjusts to these steps
![Page 7: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
© 2010 W. Brian Arthur 7
Biological vs. Technological EvolutionBiological vs. Technological Evolution
• Biological: – Darwinian variation and selection, – accumulation of incremental changes– But … occasional combinations
• Technological: – Combinatorial, abrupt, – self-augmenting – With much Darwinian evolution once a technology exists
![Page 8: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
© 2010 W. Brian Arthur 8
An Experiment at FXPALAn Experiment at FXPAL
W. Brian Arthur and Wolfgang PolakW. Brian Arthur and Wolfgang Polak
Idea
Create an artificial world in which technologies evolve indefinitely from previous ones.
I.e. Allow the system to create technologies by combining previous technologies
![Page 9: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
© 2010 W. Brian Arthur 9
An artificial world within the machineAn artificial world within the machine
• The “technologies” will be logic circuits
• Little agents in green eye shades
• They have a wish list of “needs” for logic circuits to be potentially fulfilled– ( 2-bit Exor, 4-bit Equals, 2-bit adder, etc)
![Page 10: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
© 2010 W. Brian Arthur 10
How the experiment worksHow the experiment works
1. Start from one primitive element (a NAND gate)
2. Make circuits by random combination of existing elements
3. Check to see if any needs (target logic purposes) are fulfilled
4. If so, these novel circuits become new building blocks
![Page 11: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
© 2010 W. Brian Arthur 11
NAND:NAND: the primitive elementthe primitive element
![Page 12: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
© 2010 W. Brian Arthur 12
NOT circuitNOT circuit
![Page 13: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
© 2010 W. Brian Arthur 13
IMPLY circuitIMPLY circuit
![Page 14: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
© 2010 W. Brian Arthur 14
3-bit AND3-bit AND
![Page 15: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
© 2010 W. Brian Arthur 15
1-bit adder1-bit adder
![Page 16: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
© 2010 W. Brian Arthur 16
2-bit adder2-bit adder
![Page 17: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
© 2010 W. Brian Arthur 17
Tech 33: And-3Tech 33: And-3
![Page 18: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
© 2010 W. Brian Arthur 18
3-bit adder3-bit adder
![Page 19: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
© 2010 W. Brian Arthur 19
4-bit adder4-bit adder
![Page 20: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
© 2010 W. Brian Arthur 20
After 250,000 steps After 250,000 steps
1. Quite complicated circuits have evolved
– 8-way exor, 8-way and, 4-bit equal, etc.
– An 8-bit adder (16 inputs, 9 outputs). This
is one of 10177,554 possible circuits
![Page 21: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
© 2010 W. Brian Arthur 21
But these complicated technologies But these complicated technologies require intermediate steps require intermediate steps
• They require intermediate (simpler) technologies
… which only appear if there are intermediate needs
- (Cf. R. Lenski et al. Evol. Origin of Complex Features)
![Page 22: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
© 2010 W. Brian Arthur 22
A Cambrian explosion? A Cambrian explosion?
After about 30,000 steps, sudden appearance of key circuits (enabling technologies) then quick use of these
– Full adder appears after 32,000 steps; 2,3,4-bit adders
quickly after that
![Page 23: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
© 2010 W. Brian Arthur 23
The evolution is history dependent The evolution is history dependent
New technologies build out of ones “discovered” earlier
So the order in which techs are invented matters
![Page 24: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
© 2010 W. Brian Arthur 24
Schumpeter’s Gales of DestructionSchumpeter’s Gales of Destruction
When a technology disappears (is replaced) a technology it used may have no further use. That tech then disappears … etc.
Q. Are these gales “sand-pile avalanches”? –I.e. is the system at self-organized criticality?
![Page 25: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
© 2010 W. Brian Arthur 25
Avalanches of destruction follow a power lawAvalanches of destruction follow a power law
![Page 26: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
© 2010 W. Brian Arthur 26
![Page 27: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
© 2010 W. Brian Arthur 27
Joseph Schumpeter Joseph Schumpeter
“Add as many mail-coaches as you please, you will never get a railroad by so doing.”
![Page 28: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
© 2010 W. Brian Arthur 28
François JacobFrançois Jacob
“In our universe, matter is arranged in a hierarchy of structures by successive integrations. Whether inanimate or living, the objects found on earth are always organizations or systems. Each system at a given level uses as its ingredients some systems from the simpler level. … The great diversity of vertebrates results from differences in the arrangement, in the number and distribution, of these few [building blocks].”
![Page 29: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
© 2010 W. Brian Arthur 29
Laser printerLaser printer
![Page 30: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
© 2010 W. Brian Arthur 30
![Page 31: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
Part 2. Bodies of technology …Part 2. Bodies of technology …
and how innovation works in the and how innovation works in the economyeconomy
![Page 32: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
© 2010 W. Brian Arthur 32
Innovation: works differently for bodies of technologyInnovation: works differently for bodies of technology
Domains offer a toolbox of technologies:
they emerge, aren’t invented
… build slowly … and profoundly change the economy
![Page 33: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
© 2010 W. Brian Arthur 33
Since 1600sSince 1600s
• Optical phenomena
• Chemical phenomena, heat phenomena
• Electrical, electronic, digital
• Genomic, photonic, nanotech
![Page 34: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
© 2010 W. Brian Arthur 34
A domain offers a world where things can be done differentlyA domain offers a world where things can be done differently
Real Real WorldWorld
Digital RealmDigital Realm
Real world object
Digital Version
Manipulated Version
New, processedobject
![Page 35: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
© 2010 W. Brian Arthur 35
Domains go through stagesDomains go through stages
1. Early phase: many companies, turbulence, missing pieces, sometimes a crash
2. Sustained buildout, steady growth
3. Mature technology
![Page 36: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
© 2010 W. Brian Arthur 36
How does innovation work with a domain?How does innovation work with a domain?
• The economy doesn’t adopt a domain, it encounters it
• All parts of the economy encounter the domain– many change as a result (if the change is significant, we call that a revolution)
![Page 37: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
© 2010 W. Brian Arthur 37
A domain and industries that use itA domain and industries that use it
• Put together combinations drawn from each – E.g. Banking and financial derivatives, Movie industry and CGI
![Page 38: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
© 2010 W. Brian Arthur 38
Why is technology becoming more “biological”?Why is technology becoming more “biological”?
• A chemistry of functionalities, programmable, remotely
connectable-- Everything in conversation with everything
• Can sense environment, and thus reconfigure appropriately
• Thence self-configuring, self-optimizing, self-healing
![Page 39: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
© 2010 W. Brian Arthur 39
Three overall observationsThree overall observations
• Technology is a vast “chemistry” of functionalities, that in combination give rise to further functionalities
• Bodies of technology are worlds in which things can be done differently. They are not adopted, but encountered
• Technology is becoming biological
![Page 40: How Technological Innovation Happens](https://reader035.vdocuments.us/reader035/viewer/2022062411/568bd8a31a28ab2034a41ad8/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
© 2010 W. Brian Arthur 40
We feel an unease with this huge thing We feel an unease with this huge thing building out …building out …
We place our hopes in technology, but we place our trust in nature
Modern mythology