How ScholarsExplain Collapse

Joseph A. Tainter

Utah State University

Recent Book

Understanding Collapse: Ancient History and Modern Myths, by Guy Middleton. Cambridge University Press, 2017.

Framework

n The book does not attempt to understand or explain collapse. He concludes that there is no general explanation.

n Instead, Middleton surveys 16 cases that have been labeled collapses, and describes the explanations that have offered for them.

n The book’s scholarship is impeccable.

Cases Covered

n Old Kingdom Egyptn Akkadn The Third Dynasty of Urn The Harappansn Minoan Creten Mycenaean Greecen The Hittitesn The Western Roman

Empire

n Monte Albánn Teotihuacann The Classic Mayan The Moche (not a collapse)

n Tiwanakun Warin Angkor (not a collapse)

n Rapa Nui (Easter Island) (not a prehistoric collapse)

43 Proposed Explanationsin 8 Themes

n (1) Climate change (Egyptian First Intermediate Period, Akkad, the Indus, the Mycenaeans, the Hittites, the Roman Empire, Teotihuacan, Moche, Tiwanaku, Angkor, the Maya).

n (2) Invaders/external conflict (Akkad, the Indus, Minoan Crete, the Mycenaeans, the Hittites, the Roman Empire, Teotihuacan, Moche, Angkor, Easter Island [caused by Europeans], Akkad).

n (3) Revolt/rebellion (Egypt, Monte Albán, the Mycenaeans, Moche, Teotihuacan, the Maya).

n (4) Intra-societal conflict (Egypt, Minoan Crete, Teotihuacan, Rome, the Mycenaeans).

43 Proposed Explanationsin 8 Themes

n (1) Climate change (Egyptian First Intermediate Period, Akkad, the Indus, the Mycenaeans, the Hittites, the Roman Empire, Teotihuacan, Moche, Tiwanaku, Angkor, the Maya).

n (2) Invaders/external conflict (Akkad, the Indus, Minoan Crete, the Mycenaeans, the Hittites, the Roman Empire, Teotihuacan, Moche, Angkor, Easter Island [caused by Europeans], Akkad).

n (3) Revolt/rebellion (Egypt, Monte Albán, the Mycenaeans, Moche, Teotihuacan, the Maya).

n (4) Intra-societal conflict (Egypt, Minoan Crete, Teotihuacan, Rome, the Mycenaeans).

43 Proposed Explanationsin 8 Themes

n (1) Climate change (Egyptian First Intermediate Period, Akkad, the Indus, the Mycenaeans, the Hittites, the Roman Empire, Teotihuacan, Moche, Tiwanaku, Angkor, the Maya).

n (2) Invaders/external conflict (Akkad, the Indus, Minoan Crete, the Mycenaeans, the Hittites, the Roman Empire, Teotihuacan, Moche, Angkor, Easter Island [caused by Europeans], Akkad).

n (3) Revolt/rebellion (Egypt, Monte Albán, the Mycenaeans, Moche, Teotihuacan, the Maya).

n (4) Intra-societal conflict (Egypt, Minoan Crete, Teotihuacan, Rome, the Mycenaeans).

43 Proposed Explanationsin 8 Themes

n (1) Climate change (Egyptian First Intermediate Period, Akkad, the Indus, the Mycenaeans, the Hittites, the Roman Empire, Teotihuacan, Moche, Tiwanaku, Angkor, the Maya).

n (2) Invaders/external conflict (Akkad, the Indus, Minoan Crete, the Mycenaeans, the Hittites, the Roman Empire, Teotihuacan, Moche, Angkor, Easter Island [caused by Europeans], Akkad).

n (3) Revolt/rebellion (Egypt, Monte Albán, the Mycenaeans, Moche, Teotihuacan, the Maya).

n (4) Intra-societal conflict (Egypt, Minoan Crete, Teotihuacan, Rome, the Mycenaeans).

43 Proposed Explanationsin 8 Themes (continued)

n (5) Environmental deterioration (the Indus, Moche, Easter island, the Third Dynasty of Ur).

n (6) Catastrophes (e.g., epidemics, plagues, earthquakes, volcanoes) (Minoans, Mycenaeans).

n (7) Change in trade patterns (Mycenaeans, Hittites).n (8) Mystical (e.g., religious/ideological change) (Teotihuacan,

Wari).

43 Proposed Explanationsin 8 Themes (continued)

n (5) Environmental deterioration (the Indus, Moche, Easter island, the Third Dynasty of Ur).

n (6) Catastrophes (e.g., epidemics, plagues, earthquakes, volcanoes) (Minoans, Mycenaeans).

n (7) Change in trade patterns (Mycenaeans, Hittites).n (8) Mystical (e.g., religious/ideological change) (Teotihuacan,

Wari).

43 Proposed Explanationsin 8 Themes (continued)

n (5) Environmental deterioration (the Indus, Moche, Easter island, the Third Dynasty of Ur).

n (6) Catastrophes (e.g., epidemics, plagues, earthquakes, volcanoes) (Minoans, Mycenaeans).

n (7) Change in trade patterns (Mycenaeans, Hittites).n (8) Mystical (e.g., religious/ideological change) (Teotihuacan,

Wari).

43 Proposed Explanationsin 8 Themes (continued)

n (5) Environmental deterioration (the Indus, Moche, Easter island, the Third Dynasty of Ur).

n (6) Catastrophes (e.g., epidemics, plagues, earthquakes, volcanoes) (Minoans, Mycenaeans).

n (7) Change in trade patterns (Mycenaeans, Hittites).n (8) Mystical (e.g., religious/ideological change) (Teotihuacan,

Wari).

Favorite Explanations

n Barbarian invasions (11 cases).n Climate change (11 cases).

Favorite Themes

n 25 of 48 explanations (58%) are deus ex machinaexplanations:n Climate changen Invadersn Catastrophes.

n Collapse results suddenly and surprisingly from outside a society.

n Collapse comes as “a bolt from the blue.”

In Other Words…

Collapse is just bad luck.

Appeal to My Colleagues:

Surely we can do better.