how much restoration & where?conference.ifas.ufl.edu/ncer2016/presentations/41... · wood...
TRANSCRIPT
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D. Todd [email protected]
Thomas W. [email protected]
NCER 21 April 2016
Replace this box with key image to introduce talk’s scope, importance, or background
How Much Restoration & Where?Using structured decision making to turn landscape priorities into efficient adaptation strategies in the Ozarks
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Steering Committee
State Wildlife Agencies– AL DCNR, AGFC, FFWCC,
KDFWR, LDWF, MDWFP, MDC, ODWC, TWRA, TPWD
Federal Agencies– NOAA, NPS, USACE, USFWS,
USFS, USGSNGOs
– DU, NBCI, TNC (ABC, TCF)Universities
– MS State, (Auburn)
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The GCPO aims to define, design & deliver landscapes capable of sustaining desired natural and cultural resources
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Science
Science
Delivery
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Elements of the Problem
Large Region– Restoration on private lands
Complexity– Cumulative impacts/responses– Conflicting objectives
Uncertainty– Present & Future changes
Ambiguity– Sustainable, landscapes, etc.
Discontinuity– Data doesn’t match objectives
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Solutions to the Problem
Clear Objectives– What & How much
Transparent Assumptions– Species-habitat relationships– Current conditions– Expected changes
Strategic Framework– Learn by doing
Structured Decision Making & Scenario Modeling
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What is Structured Decision Making?
“A formalization of common sense for decision problems which are too
complex for informal use of common sense.”
-Ralph Keeney, 1982
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PrOACT
Modeling Toolkit
Problem
Uncertainty:Climate Change?
Land use Change?Funding?
Trigger
Strategies & Scenarios
Objectives
Alternatives
Consequences
Tradeoffs & Optimization
Decide & Take Action
SDM Analysis Toolkit
Multiple Species
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Moving towards Proactive ConservationFor complex decisions with substantial uncertainty, scenario modeling provides a way to evaluate alternative sets of actions
Portfolio 1 Portfolio 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . Portfolio n
Species 1 7 9 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3
Species 2 1 5 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
: . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Species n 2 4 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1
Time 11 2 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8
Cost 3 6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2
ALTERNATIVES
OBJ
ECTI
VES
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Moving towards Proactive ConservationStrategy Framework for dynamic decision making (OZHI pilot project)• DFCs & CHJV Habitat Objectives for forest habitat systems
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Moving towards Proactive ConservationStrategy Framework for dynamic decision making (OZHI pilot project)• DFCs & CHJV Habitat Objectives for forest habitat systems• Landscape Prioritization
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Ozark Highlands CCS pilot project used a Rule Set
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Rule 6: Is the catchment a high priority?
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Repeat for 9 Forested Habitat Types & Inform with CHJV Habitat Objectives
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Moving towards Proactive ConservationStrategy Framework for dynamic decision making (OZHI pilot project)• DFCs & CHJV Habitat Objectives for forest habitat systems• Landscape Prioritization• Species Models & Future Projections
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Landscape-based Regional Population Models
1. Regional growth depends on processes occurring across all scales!• 900 m2 >100,000’s km2
2. Planner’s Paradox• Translating regional goals into
local actions requires understanding the effects of local actions on regional growth
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Productivity
Dispersal• Cell-level movements• Habitat Dependent• Distance Dependent
Carrying Capacity and Abundance
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0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
Abu
ndan
ce
-0.03 %
-0.5 %
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
Abun
danc
eBBS
BBS
BBS
1.5%
01234567
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Abu
ndan
ce (M
Illio
ns)
Year
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Conservation ScenariosHabitat Restoration
Random
Protected Areas
NPS/Todd Edgar
North Central Region Forest Management Guide
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100Year
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
PR
AW A
bund
ance
Year
Conservation Needs to be Strategic
Habitat Restoration AfforestationProtected
Random
Strategic
Random
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Moving towards Proactive ConservationStrategy Framework for dynamic decision making (OZHI pilot project)• DFCs & CHJV Habitat Objectives for forest habitat systems• Landscape Prioritization• Species Models & Future Projections
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Process-based Approaches
• We have projections of climate • We know how forests grow • Species habitat• Factors that affect reproduction and survival• Movements and dispersal
Climate Model Simulated Landscapes Population Growth
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Landscapes & Forest Processes
Ecosystem Model•Location•Tree vital rates•Climate•Soil characteristics
Landscape Model•Tree establishment, growth •Seed dispersal•Vegetative reproduction•Longevity•Shade tolerance•Fire tolerance•Disturbance regime•Management regime
Climate Model•Temperature•Precipitation•Solar radiation
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Landscapes & Forests under climate change
Sugar maple
White oak
ExtinctionColonizationPersistence
0102030405060708090
100
Short term Midterm Longterm
% V
ARIA
TIO
N
Succession HarvestClimate Climate*Harvest
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0200,000400,000600,000800,000
1,000,0001,200,0001,400,0001,600,0001,800,0002,000,000
2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 2110Year
Abu
ndan
ce (f
emal
es)
Distribution
Population Size
Juan Zamora
Climate change impacts on Wood Thrush
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CGCM.T47 (Moderate)
Current
GFDL.A1FI (Extreme)
Climate Scenario
Distribution
Population Size
Climate change impacts on Prairie Warblers
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Moving towards Proactive ConservationStrategy Framework for dynamic decision making (OZHI pilot project)• DFCs & CHJV Habitat Objectives for forest habitat systems• Landscape Prioritization• Species Models & Future Projections• Adaptation Strategies evaluated in terms of sustainable wildlife populations
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2010 2030 2050 2070 2090Year
Protected and Private Areas
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
2010 2030 2050 2070 2090
Acres
Year
Protected Areas Only
Comprehensive Conservation StrategyCHJV Acreage Targets (≈3 million ac)
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2020 2040 2060
2080 2100
Managed lands - Public
Developed lands
Likely Developed lands
Managed lands - Private
Comprehensive Conservation Strategy
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Protected Only Private and ProtectedManaged lands - Public
Developed lands
Likely Developed lands
Managed lands - Private
Managed lands in 2100
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Prairie Warbler without CCS
CGCM3.T47 (Moderate)
Current
GFDL.A1FI (Extreme)
Climate Scenario
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Prairie Warbler with CCSunder Extreme Climate Change
Private and Protected-Full
Base
Private and Protected-Half
Conservation Scenario
Protected - Full
Protected - Half
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Wood Thrush without CCS
CGCM3.T47 (Moderate)
Current
GFDL.A1FI (Extreme)
Climate Scenario
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Wood Thrush with CCSunder Extreme Climate Change
Private and Protected-Full
Base
Private and Protected-Half
Conservation Scenario
Protected - Full
Protected - Half
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Multiple species and Multiple Climates….
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Base Full Half Full Half
Private and Protected Protected
Risk
Risk of population declining by half through 2100
Wood ThrushPrairie Warbler
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Moving towards Proactive ConservationStrategy Framework for dynamic decision making (OZHI pilot project)• DFCs & CHJV Habitat Objectives for forest habitat systems• Landscape Prioritization• Species Models & Future Projections• Adaptation Strategies evaluated in terms of sustainable wildlife populations• Tradeoffs within & among habitat systems