how much biomass can europe use without harming the environment? results of eea studies uwe r....
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How much biomass can Europe use without harming the
environment?Results of EEA Studies
Uwe R. FritscheCoordinator, Energy & Climate Division
Öko-Institut (Institut for applied ecology), Darmstadt Office
Work sponsored by
presented at the Expert Meeting on Biodiversity Standards and Strategies for sustainable cultivation of Biomass for non-food
Purposes, Isle of Vilm, March 13-15, 2008
Partners & Objectives
• Öko-Institut (Institute for Applied Ecology, DE)
• Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (NL)
• European Forest Institute (EFI, FI)
• AEA-Technology (AEAT, UK)
• Wageningen University & Research, Alterra (NL)
+ subcontracts for CEE countries (forest potentials)
+ workshop partners Mediterranean (JRC, ES, GR, IT)
Determine EU domestic bioenergy potential that causes- no additional pressure on farmland, forest biodiversity and
soil/water resources- respects other environmental objectives (organic farming, waste
minimization, climate targets)
EU Biomass in Perspective
Biomass
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
4001
990
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
201
0
202
0
203
0
Mill
ion
TO
E
Biomass use today approx. 60 MtOE
EU renewables target 12% in 2010:
130 MtOE biomass
EU renewable target 20% in 2020:
210–250 MtOE biomass
incl. biofuels target 10% in 2020
Sustainable EU Biomass
• agricultural area: 30% for ‘environmentally orientated’ farming in 2030
• set-aside 3 % of intensively used farmland for nature conservation (“ecological stepping stones”)
• no grassland conversion to intensive agriculture (cross-compliance, soil carbon, biodiversity)
• no conversion of other land to UAA
• no forest residues from critical sites
• straw use only if soil is protected
Use sub-regional differentiation (NUTS-2 level)
Food and fodder production
UAAYield increase
CAP reform
Environmen-tal frame
Bioenergy Crop production
Grassland
Competition effectbetween energy and food market
Increase of commodity prices relative to 2000Crop 2010 2020 2030rapeseed oil 110% 121% 200%Sugar 115% 127% 200%round wood 115% 132% 152%Wheat, maize 113% 125% 138%
Land Potential: Principles
0
5
10
15
20
25
2010 2020 2030
Ava
ilab
e la
nd
are
a, M
io h
a.
Permanent grassand olive groves
EU-15 CO2 permitprice effect DE, Fr
EU-15 due toliberalisation
EU-10
Agricultural Land Potential
Allocation of Crops to Land
Available technologies
gentle shift in crop mix
environmental ranking
Yield(PJ)
by zone& crop
BIOENERGY POTENTIAL
(lower heating value of
biomass)
Sust.CropMix
by MS
Land
Available technologies
gentle shift in crop mix
environmental ranking
Yield(PJ)
by zone& crop
BIOENERGY POTENTIAL
(lower heating value of
biomass)
Sust.CropMix
by MS
Land
• Differentiate between environmental zones
• Determine environmental impact of bioenergy crops
• Introduce mix of bioenergy crops (maintain crop/ landscape diversity)
– erosion– soil compaction– nutrient inputs
groundwater– nutrient inputs in
surface water– pesticide pollution
of soils and water– water abstraction– "increased fire risk"– diversity of crop types
Which crops are best to grow where?
Agricultural biomass
EEA Sustainable Crop Mix
sustainable cropmix for each environmental zone
Risk matrix for each crop
Information about environmental zone crop information
Descriptionof zones
GermanStudy
Environmentalproblems by
zone
IRENA EEAbiofuels
Environmentaleffects caused
by crop
reports
Expertknowledge
Crop suitibilityby zone
Statistics:FAO, IENICA, …
reports
EEA biofuels
Germanstudy
sustainable cropmix for each environmental zone
Risk matrix for each crop
Information about environmental zone crop information
Descriptionof zones
GermanStudy
Environmentalproblems by
zone
IRENA EEAbiofuelsGerman
Study
Environmentalproblems by
zone
IRENA EEAbiofuels
Environmentalproblems by
zone
IRENA EEAbiofuels
Environmentaleffects caused
by crop
reports
Expertknowledge
Environmentaleffects caused
by crop
reports
Expertknowledge
Crop suitibilityby zone
Statistics:FAO, IENICA, …
reports
EEA biofuels
Germanstudy
Crop suitibilityby zone
Statistics:FAO, IENICA, …
reports
EEA biofuels
Germanstudy
EU Bio-Potential: Crops
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2010 2020 2030
Pri
ma
ry b
ioe
ne
rgy
po
ten
tia
l, M
toe
SRC+per. gras
plants for biogas
plants forethanol+
cereals forethanol
oil plants
• roots and foliage remain in the forest
• sustainable nutrient balance • soil type• base saturation
• soil erosion • steepness• elevation
• soil compaction• peat land• soil water regime
• No intensification on protected areas (intrinsic)
Sustainable Forest Residues
Total Bio-Potential EU-25
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2010 2020 2030
Pri
mar
y b
iom
ass
po
ten
tial
, Mto
e
Additionalagriculturalpotential(DE, FR)
Additionalforestpotential
Agriculture
Forestry
Waste
Effect of increasing
energy & carbon
prices
Sustainable Bioenergy
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
2010 2020 2030
Prim
ary
po
ten
tial,
Mto
e
sweet sorghum
switch-grass
giant reed
reed canary grass
miscan-thus
SRC willow
SRC poplar
2-culture red.
2-culture opt.
wheat whole plant
triticale whole plant
maize whole plant
barley/ triticale corn
wheat corn
maize corn
sunflower seeds
rape seeds
Potential from agriculture by cropPotential from agriculture by crop
BioenergyEnviron-mental
resources
Costs &Employment
Greenhousegas
reduction
Supplysecurity
How to use potential?
Replace as much imported fuel as possible
t CO2 avoided
per hectare?
t CO2 avoided
per Dollar?
synergieswith natureprotection
crop mix respects
soil, water
land use
change
Maximize CO2 savings
“least cost” mix: 13.3% bio-electricity 16.5% bio-heat 5.6% bio-fuels
Approx. 15 % of EU prim. energy in 2030 could be from biomass
6.9%
11.0%13.3%
3.6%
8.6%
16.5%
0.6%3.5%
5.6%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
Bio
ener
gy
- as
sh
are
of
gro
ss s
ecto
ral
dem
and
s (e
le v
s. h
eat.
vs.
tra
nsp
ort
)[%
]
electricity
heat
transport
Sustainable Bioenergy
Further Policy and Research
• Development and implementation of sustainability standards
• Energy policy to develop framework conditions for environmentally-friendly bioenergy systems
• Climate changes complicates the picture - affects ability to make assumptions about the future
• Scale of production:– smaller scale easier to come up with solutions
tailored to local agri-environmental conditions
• Crop rotation and diversification important factors• Need more research on Life Cycle Assessment of
bioenergy crops + bioenergy pathways