how many humans can our planet support?. earth’s population today = 6.56 billion how many people...
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How many humans can our planet support?
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Earth’s population today = 6.56 billion
How many people will Earth hold in our lifetimes?
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How does energy consumption compare to population growth?
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85% of world’s commercial energy today from coal, oil and gas
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What is the primarysource of CO2
today?
Is this going tochange?
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Historic world population and CO2 emissions
Which is increasing at a faster rate today?
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Who is burning these fossil fuels?
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3x
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85% of world’s energy today from fossil fuels, MORE in future
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In 1956, Hubbert correctly predicted the peak in US oil production
Early 1970s
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Is U.S. fossil fuel consumption decreasing?
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2007
World Oil Production
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What is the effect of “Peak Oil” going to be on our planet?
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Who controls the world’s oil?
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United States has 1:3production/consumption gap
5x
12x
3x
3 year supply
P/C gap growing 5% per year
P/C gap cost $192 billion in 2007
($240 billion per year spent in Iraq war so far)($100 billion to provide universal health care)
($6 billion spent on cancer research)
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Why isHawaii
particularlyat risk in
scenarioslike this?
IraqIraq
ChechnyaChechnya KuwaitKuwait
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Hawaii has one of the highest rates ofper capita oil consumption in the world
2x U.S. average4x Europe average28x China average
1. transportation and electricity-generating plants
2. airplanes that fuel our tourist-based economy
3. almost all of our food and consumer goods
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How are human actions affecting our environment?
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001
IS92a = “business as usual”
How is atmospheric CO2 projected to change in our lifetimes?
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Greenhouse gas concentrations in atmosphere
Dome Concordia Ice Core
CH4
CO2
N2O
T
Siegenthaler et al., 2005
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Without doubt human activities have changed atmospheric chemistry
CDIAC, 2006
1987 Montreal Protocol
280 ppmv in 185035% increase
275 ppbv in 185016% increase
730 ppbv in 1850143% increase
0 pptv in 1850550 pptv today
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What are human-induced changes in atmosphericchemistry going to do to our environment?
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What allows Earth to support life?
EARTH, 14 C
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EARTH, 14 C
Earth’s ownGreenhouse Effect
is
NATURALand
NECESSARY
“Greenhouse Effect”
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EARTH, 14 C
MATH PROBLEM:
Earth’sNatural
Greenhouse+
HumanAdditions
=Temperature
Increase
“Greenhouse Effect”
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Northern Hemisphere temperature record
The “Hockey Stick” of Global Mean Surface Temperature
Mann et al., 1999
How accurately have we measured temperature?
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Effects of natural forcing
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Natural Forcing + Human Forcing
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Natural Forcing + Human Forcing
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Natural Forcing + Human Forcing
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Observed Temperature(1900-2000)
GREENHOUSE MATH PROBLEM
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Observed Temperature
…minus…
Natural Warming
GREENHOUSE MATH PROBLEM
tectonicorbital
millenialsolar
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Observed Temperature
…minus…
Natural Warming
…equals…
Residual (Human Effects)
GREENHOUSE MATH PROBLEM
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Observed Temperature
…minus…
Natural Warming
…equals…
Residual (Human Effects)
…looks a lot like…
Carbon Dioxide Increase
GREENHOUSE MATH PROBLEM
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Northern Hemisphere temperature record
Most of this is caused by human activities
Mann et al., 1999
What’s going to happen next?
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001
IS92a = “business as usual”
How is temperature projected to change in our lifetimes?
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What are the impacts of human-induced temperature rise?
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How is sea level projected to change in our lifetimes?
IPCC projection includes only thermal expansion of seawaterWhat’s missing?
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Antarctica/Greenland = Antarctica/Greenland = 10% of Earth’s surface10% of Earth’s surface 95% of Earth’s ice95% of Earth’s ice
What happens when this melts?What happens when this melts?
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Honolulu?
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Bangladesh
Effect of sea level rise on Bangladesh
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Where is 1m of sea level rise?
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Where is most of Waikiki?
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How is sea level projected to change in our lifetimes?
IPCC projection includes only thermal expansion of seawaterWhat’s missing?
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Thermal expansion sea level rise
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Greenlandice is
melting
Ice volume
Total melt area
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How about Antarctica?
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Antarctica is melting too…
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Greenland or West Antarctica - 20 feet (6 meters)
When?
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HurricaneCycloneTyphoon
1) warm ocean temperatures
2) low vertical wind shear
(i.e., no strong change in wind speed or direction between two different altitudes)
3) high humidity
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Category Five Hurricane
• Winds greater than 155 mph (135 kt or 249 km/hr).
• Storm surge generally greater than 18 ft above normal.
• Complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings.
• Some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away.
• All shrubs, trees, and signs blown down.
• Severe and extensive window and door damage.
• Low-lying escape routes are cut by rising water 3-5 hours before arrival of the center of the hurricane.
• Major damage to lower floors of all structures located less than 15 ft above sea level and within 500 yards of the shoreline.
• Massive evacuation of residential areas on low ground within 5-10 miles (8-16 km) of the shoreline may be required.
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IPCC, 2001
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How many Inikis (C4)can our islands handle?
$2.6billion
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Category 4-5 projected storm surge heights 6m
FederalEmergencyManagementAgency(FEMA)
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Lanikai
Bellows
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Coral bleaching
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Depth to water table increasing
Depth to saltwater decreasing
What happens when you What happens when you decreasedecrease rainfall rainfalland and increaseincrease sea level? sea level?
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Invasive species encroachment
Pre-pigs
Post-pigs
Post-fencing
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Are human effects on the environment going to last?
Humans
Climate
Humans
Climate
AProblem
Less ofa Problem
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Is this realistic?
Lag time of climate components
IPCC, 2001
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Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001
IS92a = “business as usual”
What is the trend in atmospheric CO2?
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Are human effects on the environment going to last?
Humans
Climate
Humans
Climate
Humantimescale
(YES)
Geologictimescale
(NO)
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What happens whenyou put a frog in a
pot of boiling water?
What happens whenyou put a frog in cold
water then bring itto a boil?
Human/Climate Analogy
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Be the architects of your future, not its victims… Be the architects of your future, not its victims… Buckminster FullerBuckminster Fuller
1987 Montreal Protocol