How is Climate Changeimpacting British Columbia’s

Managed Forests?

Kristine WeeseResource Practices Branch

Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resource Operations

Considerations for stakeholders in the Okanaganthat are adapting forest managementto climate change

OverviewOverview

• Context: climate change adaptation in BCContext: climate change adaptation in BC• FLNR science and policy efforts to dateFLNR science and policy efforts to date• Projected impacts to forest ecosystemsProjected impacts to forest ecosystems• Management issues & best practicesManagement issues & best practices• Barriers to adaptationBarriers to adaptation• Key messages for Okanagan stakeholdersKey messages for Okanagan stakeholders

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Climate Change in BCClimate Change in BC

Climate Change Adaptation in BCClimate Change Adaptation in BC

Ministries – MFLRNO (lead), Min of EnvironmentKey initiatives – • Future Forest Ecosystems Initiative (2006-12) • Forest Stewardship Action Plan for CC Adaptation (2012→)Policy lever – primarily Forest and Range Practices Act

ADM, Resource StewardshipChief Forester

MFLNRO

ResearchCOP

Resource Practices

Branch

Tree Improvement

Branch

Forest Analysis& Inventory

Branch

Wildfire Mgmt Program

RangeBranch

MinistryofEnvironment

Climate Change Adaptation

Steering Committee

Competitiveness& Innovation

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Research InitiativesResearch Initiatives• High resolution spatial climate dataHigh resolution spatial climate data• Modelling climate effects on trees, grasslands, Modelling climate effects on trees, grasslands,

disturbance, hydrology, biodiversity & wildlifedisturbance, hydrology, biodiversity & wildlife• Risk assessment & decision-support toolsRisk assessment & decision-support tools• Regional vulnerability assessmentsRegional vulnerability assessments• Climate change monitoring strategyClimate change monitoring strategy

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PROVINCE-WIDE

01 Wiensczyk FRX

Disturbance decision-support

13 Redding FRX Watershed science synthesis

14 Spittlehouse Govt

High-resolution climate data

COASTAL

02 Brinkman-CTR

Northwest Skeena adaptation

06 deMontigny Govt

Red alder adaptation strategy

SOUTHERN INTERIOR

07 Fraser TRU Climate change & rangelands

08 Holt - Veridian

West Kootenay adaptation

09 Innes UBC Southern Selkirks resiliency

12 Nelson UBC Kamloops future forests

16 Winkler Govt Okanagan water supplies

CENTRAL INTERIOR

03 Chan-McLeod UBC

Quesnel TSA adaptation

04 Coxson UNBC Inland rainforests

05 DeLong Govt/UNBC

Forest ecosystem risk analysis

10 Krcmar UBC Uncertainty in adaptation

11 Morgan BVRC Multi-scale vulnerability

15 Summerville UNBC

Community planning

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6 12

3&10

0707

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4

4

168 9

(& 5)

5?

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1, 13 & 14province-wide

FFESC PROJECTS DISTRIB

Policy InitiativesPolicy Initiatives

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Topic Policy and Extension InitiativesPolicy guidance Climate-based seed transfer

Tree species selection and stocking[FRPA review]

Strategic planning Type 4 silviculture strategies[Review of NRS planning initiatives]

Monitoring Cumulative effects assessment frameworkIntegrated NRS monitoring framework

Building capacity Regional adaptation workshopsRegional extension notes

Climate change in BCClimate change in BC• Climate change Climate change is underwayis underway• Predicted to accelerate over this century:Predicted to accelerate over this century:

– Estimates: 1.8 to 4.0° temp increaseEstimates: 1.8 to 4.0° temp increase– Annual precipitation increase 6%Annual precipitation increase 6%– Decrease in snowpackDecrease in snowpack

• More More extreme weather extreme weather coming:coming:– Heat waves, heavy precipitation eventsHeat waves, heavy precipitation events– Southern BC: more droughtSouthern BC: more drought– Coast & mountains: more rain storms, windCoast & mountains: more rain storms, wind

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Thompson-OkanaganThompson-Okanagan

Climate Variable* Season Average ChangeMean temp Annual +1.8%Precipitation Annual

SummerWinter

+6%-9%+7%

Snowfall WinterSpring

-11%-55%

Growing degree days Annual +319 degree daysFrost free days Annual +24 days

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*By 2050s

Impacts: HydrologyImpacts: Hydrology

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Winter Summer Storm impacts Streamflow

Temp Temp Frequency & magnitude

Snowmelt hybrid rain/snow driven

Precipitation Precipitation Landslides Rain on snow events

Rainfall Evaporative demand Avalanche Earlier freshet

Snowfall Plant transpiration Erosion Peak flow

Snowpack Moisture deficits Sedimentation Summer low flow

Snowline & north Stream/lake temp Big log jams Low flow period

Extreme weather Risk to salmon Channel stability Perennial stream intermittent*

Log supply (long term)

*Where snowmelt not stored in ground water

Impacts: DisturbanceImpacts: Disturbance

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Agent CDF CWH MH ICH BG PP IDF SBPS MS SBS ESSF BWBS SWB AT

AbioticWind XX X X X X XX X XSnow/ice X X XFrost XAvalanche XX XMass movement XXFlooding XX XLow severity fire X X XMixed/high severity fire

XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX XX

Drought X XBioticVertebrates X XBark beetles X X XX XX XX XX X XInsect defoliators X X XX X X X X XStem and needle disease

X X X X X

Root rot X X X X X X XStem rot X X XMistletoe X X X

Impacts: Forests, soils, Impacts: Forests, soils, wildlifewildlife

• Climate envelopes of tree species are shifting Climate envelopes of tree species are shifting upslope and north:upslope and north:– Shrinking: higher-elevation BEC zonesShrinking: higher-elevation BEC zones– Expanding: grasslands, dry forest ecosystems, ICHExpanding: grasslands, dry forest ecosystems, ICH

• Ecosystem shifts to warmer, drier extremes:Ecosystem shifts to warmer, drier extremes:– Reduced soil moisture, drought-induced mortalityReduced soil moisture, drought-induced mortality

• Extreme weather and disturbance = loss of Extreme weather and disturbance = loss of habitat and increased mortality for wildlifehabitat and increased mortality for wildlife

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Adaptation StrategiesAdaptation Strategies1.1. Reduce risks to Reduce risks to forest ecosystemsforest ecosystems::

– Limit cumulative effectsLimit cumulative effects– Promote resilience (Promote resilience (diversitydiversity))– Assist migration (Assist migration (connectivity; climate-suitable tree speciesconnectivity; climate-suitable tree species))– Combat detrimental change (Combat detrimental change (manage disturbancemanage disturbance))

2.2. Reduce risks to Reduce risks to communitiescommunities::1.1.Monitor and detect undesirable changesMonitor and detect undesirable changes2.2.Help build community adaptive capacityHelp build community adaptive capacity3.3.Help build infrastructure capacityHelp build infrastructure capacity

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Best PracticesBest Practices

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Management issues Example best practices

Loss or degradation of old forest ecosystems, habitat

Maintain a connected network of reserves, corridors, focal species habitats, WTPs

Variable, potentially reduced timber supply

Control insects, disease & fire where possiblePreferentially harvest susceptible stands

Increased plantation failures Regenerate with diverse stands of climatically-suited species/stock

Reduced water quality Limit ECA to 30 to 50% of THLB

Potential infrastructure damage

Design roads & drainage structures to accommodate increased peak flowAvoid locating roads & cutblocks on unstable terrain

More Best PracticesMore Best Practices

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Category Example best practicesHarvesting With warmer winters, adjust the timing of harvesting and

road works to minimize soil erosion and sedimentation

Regeneration Underplant with other tree species/genotypes where current regeneration or forest is at riskPlant drought-resistant species where drier soil moisture conditions are anticipated

Forest health Monitor forest health and free-to-grow surveys to track unusual occurrences so that prompt management action may be taken

Fire Use prescribed burning to reduce wildfire risks and forest vulnerability to insects & disease

Key Message Key Message from Scientistsfrom Scientists

““With the exception of assisted migration, With the exception of assisted migration, adaptation strategies are elements of adaptation strategies are elements of

ecosystem-based management that require ecosystem-based management that require broader applicationbroader application””

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Barriers to AdaptationBarriers to Adaptation

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Barrier Category Sub-category Importance rating

1. Lack of concern regional scale provincial scale

—XX

2. Lack of knowledge and expertise

basic biophysical knowledge inventory and monitoring operational trials

—X

XX3. Lack of planning

capacity

existing plans existing planning approach

XXXX

4. Lack of institutional support for change

economic disincentives restrictive legislation weak governance and limited

resources weak professional guidance

XXX

XXX

X

Key MessagesKey Messages

• Consider new and emerging science & policyConsider new and emerging science & policy• Utilize best (ecosystem-based) practicesUtilize best (ecosystem-based) practices• Experiment, monitor, adapt: operational trialsExperiment, monitor, adapt: operational trials• Share ideas/learning thru ‘COPs’ Share ideas/learning thru ‘COPs’ • Advocate government action:Advocate government action:

– Risk-sharing / enabling innovation / incentivesRisk-sharing / enabling innovation / incentives– Land use planning / monitoringLand use planning / monitoring– Supporting community adaptationSupporting community adaptation

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ContactsContacts

• Kristine Weese, Resource Practices Branch, FLNR– kristine.weese@gov.bc.ca

• FFESC web site: http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/hfp/future_forests/council/

• FLNR Climate Change Adaptation web site: http://www.for.gov.bc.ca/het/climate/actionplan/index.htm

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