HOW GOOD OR BAD ARE TODAY’S JOBS?

SOME RESEARCH HEADLINES

ALAN FELSTEAD Cardiff School of Social Sciences

Cardiff University alanfelstead@cf.ac.uk

Pay Regularly Reported Using Official Data

• 24% of workers in Wales are paid less than the Living Wage • This compares to 22% in UK as a whole

Relatively Low Pay a Feature of the Welsh Economy

… and Real Average Pay Has Fallen Since 2008

Unemployment Also Regularly Tracked & Reported … Again Using Official Data

• Before the recession unemployment rates in Wales were similar, if not better, to those in the UK as a whole • However, in the recession unemployment grew faster in Wales than in Britain • This gap remains – latest figures give an unemployment rate in Wales of 5.9% compared to 5.6% in Britain (June 2015)

Less Frequent Surveys on Job Quality

Date Survey Sample Size 1986 Social Change &

Economic Life Initiative 4047

1992 Employment in Britain Survey

3855

1997 Skills Survey 2467 2001 Skills Survey 4470 2006 Skills Survey 7787 2012 Skills and Employment

Survey 3200

Skills and Employment Survey 2012

• Interviews with workers adults aged 20 to 65 in Britain

• 3,200 interviewed in 2012, of which 587 were in Wales (407 in 2006)

• Sampling procedure: national random probability samples, with interviews at home, lasting one hour

• Data taken from responses given to over 360 questions on skills and the quality of work beyond pay

Two Short Welsh Reports (longer report also available)

1. Trends in Training

… but pay is just part of the story! What about the non-pay quality of work?

Fears of Training Cutbacks

‘In an economic downturn, there is always a temptation … to cut spending on staff training’

Calls for Restraint

‘But it’s a false economy’

‘We must not pay the price of failing to invest in the talent on which our future will be built’

Source: own calculations from LFS 1995-2012.

No Evidence of a Recession Effect on Incidence of Training

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

55

Perc

enta

ge o

f Tra

inin

g Ep

isode

s < O

ne W

eek

But Training Episodes Less Than One Week Rising

But the Quality of Training Has Not Suffered

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Certified Skills Way of working Enjoyment Satisfied

% o

f job

s

2006 2012

2. Trends in Skills Under-utilisation

Over-qualification Rates

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

1986 1992 1997 2001 2006 2012

% o

f Job

s Hel

d by

Wor

kers

/Gra

duat

es

Overqualified: all workers Overqualified: graduates

Over- qualification

above average in UK

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0 O

ver-

qual

ified

for t

he jo

b (%

) How Does the UK Compare? Not Very Well!

How Does Wales Compare? … Not Very Well Degree Mismatch, 2006-2012

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

London & South East Rest of Britain Wales

% o

f gra

du

ates

in w

ork

forc

e m

inu

s %

of

grad

uat

e jo

bs

2006 2012

But Focusing on Supply is Not Enough

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Skills shortage vacancies

Skills gaps Under-use of skills

% o

f est

ablis

hmen

ts

Source: UKCES Employer Skills Survey 2013

3. Trends in Work Intensification

Work Intensification, 1992-2012

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1992 1997 2001 2006 2012

% o

f job

s

High pressure Hard work High speed

1992 1997 2001 2006 2012 Men 30.5 38.8 36.6 39.2 41.5

Women 32.6 43.1 40.7 45.2 49.6

- full-time - part-time

37.7 24.2

48.0 36.1

47.0 31.4

50.1 37.5

57.1 38.6

Public 31.2 44.4 42.9 47.7 52.5

Private 31.8 39.2 36.7 39.3 42.2

Percentage of Hard Working Jobs, 1992-2012

0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0 45.0 50.0

Denmark Sweden Portugal Norway Croatia Estonia France

Switzerland Russia

Czech Republic Italy

Slovenia Belgium

Netherlands Cyprus Finland

Germany Poland Greece

Lithuania Bulgaria Hungary

Spain Slovakia Ireland Britain

Ukraine

Percentage strongly agreeing that job requires working very hard [meaning long hours or intensity]

Work intensity relatively high

in Britain

How Does Britain Compare on Work Intensity?

4. Fear at Work

Workers Fear More than Job Loss, Especially in the Public Sector

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Less say in job Less skill Less pay Less interesting work

%

All Employees Private Sector Public Sector

% v

ery

or fa

irly

anxi

ous

Five-point Summary 1. Growing wage inequality and real wage stagnation 2. Long-term decline in training incidence and intensity 3. Over-qualification still high but has improved 4. Work has become more intense 5. Job insecurity high, especially in the public sector

References Felstead, A, Davies, R, Jones, S (2013) Job Skills, Qualification Use and Training in Wales: Results from the Skills and Employment Survey 2012, Cardiff: Wales Institute for Social and Economic Research, Data and Methods. Felstead, A, Gallie, D, Green, F and Inanc, H (2013) Skills at Work in Britain: First Findings from the Skills and Employment Survey 2012, London: Centre for Learning and Life Chances in Knowledge Economies and Societies, Institute of Education. Felstead, A, Gallie, D, Green, F and Inanc, H (2013) Work Intensification in Britain: First Findings from the Skills and Employment Survey 2012, London: Centre for Learning and Life Chances in Knowledge Economies and Societies, Institute of Education. Felstead, A and Green, F (2013) ‘Underutilization, overqualification and skills mismatch: patterns and trends’, Skills in Focus, June, Glasgow: Skills Development Scotland,

www.skillsdevelopmentscotland.co.uk/media/811162/underutilization__overqualification_and_ skills_mismatch_patterns_and_trends.pdf

Felstead, A, Green, F and Jewson, N (2012) ‘An analysis of the impact of the 2008-09 recession on the provision of training in the UK’, Work, Employment and Society, 26(6): 968-986. Felstead, A, Green, F and Jewson, N (2013) ‘Training in recession: the impact of the 2008-2009 recession on training at work’, UKCES Evidence Report No 72, September, Wath-upon-Dearne: UK Commission for Employment and Skills,

http://www.ukces.org.uk/publications/er72-training-in-recession Green, F, Felstead, A, Gallie, D and Inanc, H (2013) Training in Britain: First Findings from the Skills and Employment Survey 2012, London: Centre for Learning and Life Chances in Knowledge Economies and Societies, Institute of Education. Green, F, Felstead, A, Gallie, D, Inanc, H and Jewson, N (2013) ‘What has been happening to the training of workers in Britain?’, LLAKES Research Paper 43, London: ESRC Centre for Learning and Life Chances in Knowledge Economies and Societies, Institute of Education, University of London.