© 2012 Fluor. All Rights Reserved.

HOW FUTURE CITIES WILL SUCCEED: CREATING SMART AND SUSTAINABLE CITIES

Bob Prieto

3 Propositions

Our cities are multi-dimensional and current frameworks are inadequate for the future Future cities require a Resilience

Code Community resilience requires

partnership between public, NGO and private sectors

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What Do We Know About the Future of Our Cities?

A lot……very little

– Its uncertain Likely that they have a future

– 5000 years of urban growth – Good economic model

Complex. Changing. Dynamic. Challenging. Current frameworks must evolve…..or break

A Challenging Future

Simple → Complex Static → Dynamic Certain → Uncertain Capital Efficiency → Life Cycle Effectiveness Build for decades → Build for generations The Bottom Line → Triple Bottom Line Safety Focus → Hazard Avoided Business Case → Scenario Based Resiliency

Proposition #1

Our cities are multi-dimensional and current frameworks are inadequate for the future

– Economic – Social – Political – Religious/cultural – Intellectual – Technological

3D – Location based information 4D – Time 5D – Attributes associated with initial instance 6D – Attributes associated with life cycle 7D – “System” level properties

All must grow in scope and reach in the future

7DSM Future for Our Cities

Examples of How Dimensions Change ♦ 3D – absolute and relative

positions (rise of assemblies); tolerances important; position awareness

♦ 4D – cradle to grave (or longer) • Dynamic, changeable futures • Designing, building, operating for

renewal and replacement • Scenario based futures

♦ 5D - essentially a set of attributes associated with first delivery of an asset; must now include TBL; uncertainty; assembly properties; benefits and impacts

♦ 6D – asset life cycle attributes; O&M and End-of-Life benefits and impacts; TBL considerations; scenario based and time series values

6th Dimension as Enabler

True measure is not lowest LCC but the highest life cycle returns – Serve an evolving society

Developing and implementing cost-effective strategies recognizing the long-term purpose and nature of assets

Monitoring, maintaining, enhancing asset performance. Anticipating, mitigating, managing risks associated with asset degradation Sharpens Asset Management focus Enables robust life cycle planning

– Up front scenario planning – Dynamic asset and enterprise reconfiguration - Improved Refurbishment and

Replacement (R&R) planning improves the quality of capital funding strategies Transition to Predictive Asset management

– Assess real time conditions and implications – Asset O&M optimization strategies - Systems level view

• Deploying limited financial, physical and human resources in efficient, effective and sustainable manner; making informed tradeoffs as part of our decision making process

7th Dimension – System Level Properties

7th Dimension reflects the inherent capability of our 6D system to adopt and respond in ways it was not explicitly intended to do when first conceived

We use words like these to describe these system level properties – Flexibility – Adaptability – Responsiveness

… or F-A-R ness We also refer to these system level properties with words like

RESILIENCE

LCA NPV(Confidence)= PΣ t=1 [(All Σ n=1 C(n(σ, PDF), t, q, ScenarioN, Configx, D#(t, ScenarioN), Limit#(t, D, ScenarioN)) *q ) - (All Σ n=1 R(n(σ, PDF), t, q, ScenarioN, Configx, D#(t, ScenarioN), Limit#(t, D, ScenarioN)) *q )]

7th Dimension is Dynamic

7DSM “states” are function of: – How designed and built – Equipment and materials choices we made – How we operated and maintained – Events we have experienced – Knowledge gained and captured – Externalities and how they have changed and are changing – Insights we have embedded into our asset decisions

7th Dimension will allow stress testing for Resilience Broadens perspective of traditional life cycle methodologies: Framework for reconfirmation of strategies or reconfiguration guidance Dynamic life cycle based management tool essential in managing urban

portfolios.

Proposition #2

Future cities require a Resilience Code

Resilience - The ability to resist, absorb, recover from, or successfully adapt to adversity or change of conditions such as a terrorist attack, hurricane, earthquake, technological failure (dam collapse or nuclear power plant accident. (DHS 2009)

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Recognize Resilience Challenge

♦ Impacts from events of scale can be very devastating – Attacks of 9/11 – Florida hurricanes of 2004 – Huricane Katrina 2005 – Japan 2011 earthquake and tsunami – Super Storm Sandy 2012 – Oklahoma City 2013 tornado – Drought, wildfire, flooding, severe storms, etc

Risks are known Risk models have been developed to predict these risks Plans can be made to counter the negative effects Events affect public and private sectors

Urbanization Increases Resilience Challenge

Population & Industry Densities in Hurricane & Earthquake Hazard Zones

Impacts Are Growing

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…but stronger codes are saving lives

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1900 1950 2010

Natural disaster summary 1900-2011 (linear-interpolated smoothed lines)

Future Cities Require Resilience Codes

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• Prevent Storm Damage to Homes • Relocate & Protect Building Systems • Remove Barriers to Elevating Buildings & Building Systems • Add Backup Fire Safety Communication • Safeguard Toxic Materials Stored in Flood Zones • Prevent Sewage Backflow • Plant Wind & Flood Resistant Trees • Clarify Construction Requirements in Flood Zones • Prevent Wind Damage to Existing Buildings • Analyze Wind Risks • Capture Stormwater to Prevent Flooding • Use Cool Surfaces to Reduce Summer Heat

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Resilience Code: Stronger Buildings

U.S. Green Building Council New York Chapter, Building Resilience Task Force Summary 2013

Resilience Code: Back-up Power

Choose Reliable Backup Power & Prioritize Needs Use Cogeneration & Solar During Blackouts Remove Barriers to Backup & Natural Gas Generators Remove Barriers to Cogeneration Remove Barriers to Solar Energy Add Hookups for Temporary Generators & Boilers Keep Residential Stairwells & Hallways Lit During Blackouts Keep Gas Stations Open During Blackouts

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U.S. Green Building Council New York Chapter, Building Resilience Task Force Summary 2013

Resilience Code: Essential Safety

Supply Drinking Water Without Power Ensure Toilets & Sinks Work Without Power Enhance Building Water Reserves Ensure Operable Windows in Residential Buildings Maintain Habitable Temperatures Without Power

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U.S. Green Building Council New York Chapter, Building Resilience Task Force Summary 2013

Resilience Code: Better Community Planning

Create Emergency Plans Adopt an Existing Building Code Don’t Discourage Buildings from Operating During Emergencies Support Good Samaritan Legislation Pre-approve Emergency Inspectors Pre-negotiate Emergency Recovery Agreements

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U.S. Green Building Council New York Chapter, Building Resilience Task Force Summary 2013

Proposition #3

Community resilience requires partnership between public, NGO and private sectors

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Public Sector

Private Sector

Citizens NGO Sector

Community Resilience includes: • Family housing & school • Local businesses – Small and Large • Local & regional governments • Critical utilities and infrastructure, etc

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Community Resilience - Issues

• Resilience has just entered into the National discussion • Critical Infrastructure resides between Government and

Private Industry, making it difficult to mitigate risk • Stafford Act focuses on Individual and Public Assistance

– Hurricane Katrina – Nearly 7,900 businesses were shut down in southeast Louisiana after Hurricane Katrina

– Similar stories from Super Storm Sandy • Private Industry is not addressed in current Response or

Recovery planning efforts other than SBA loans

Note: Private industry is primary income for Public (Taxation), Citizens (Income)

Community Resilience - Challenges

• Risk transfer is used as primary method to address risk • Risk mitigation not effectively used to build resilience • Few truly understand the cost / benefit to mitigating risk • Insurance industry has yet to acknowledge the benefits of

Pre-Event Planning – Cost Benefit = Premium Reduction • Public, Private, NGO and Citizens are not engaged

methods to build Community Resilience o Insurance industry has a special role to play

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Community Resilience – Path Forward

Common language – Resilience and Resilience Scoring Move from a Life Safety to a Resilience Code Public, Private, NGO, Citizens and the Insurance

Industry must collaborate to build Community Resilience – Collective Recovery Time Objectives – All Hazard Assessments – Vulnerability Assessments, Risk Management & Mitigation – Collective Response and Recovery Planning

Community needs to better understand of cost benefits of mitigation Insurance Industry needs to reward policy holders for

taking proactive measures towards Resilience

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Dimensions of Resilience to consider Economic

– Financial – Facilities – Logistics – Infrastructure – Critical Utilities

Social – Security – Employees – Housing Stock – Supply Chain Management

Political – Governance

Cultural – Communications

Technological – Equipment – Information Technology

work with local companies to prioritize mitigation and retrofit measures determine center of mass for both commerce and government

prioritize infrastructure mitigation around these centers

Summary – 3 Propositions

Our cities are multi-dimensional and current frameworks are inadequate for the future

Future cities require a Resilience Code Community resilience requires partnership between public, NGO and

private sectors

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