how do we prevent a food crisis in the midst of climate ...€¦ · 2 how do we prevent a food...

Kunmin Kim, Task Manager, ADBIHyunwoo Tak, Associate Research Fellow, Korea Institute of Public Administration

How Do We Prevent a Food Crisis in the Midst of Climate Change?

briefpolicy

Key Points • Theimpactsofextreme

eventsduetoclimatechange,suchasdroughts,floods,andtyphoons,alongwiththetemperatureriseduetoglobalwarming,areespeciallyimportantforfoodsecurity.

• Increasingsocioeconomicfactors,suchaspopulationandincome,aswellasthedeclineoftheagriculturesector,relatetoclimatechangeandacceleratethefoodcrisis.

• Thechallengesandimpactsofclimatechangeonagriculturecanbecategorizedinto(i) theinundationofagriculturallandandsalineintrusionduetosealevelrise,(ii) desertificationduetodrought,(ii)flooddamageandsoilerosion,(iv) typhoondamagetofoodcrops,cattle,andagriculturalfacilities,(v) reducedplantandlivestockgrowthduetocold,and(vi)reducedyieldsduetopestsanddiseases.

• DuringpastAsianfoodcrises,thegovernment’srolehasbeentoexpandthecultivatedarea,developanddisseminatehigh-yieldingseeds,andsubsidizeagriculture-relatedcosts,suchasthoseforfertilizer.Themostimportantsolutionisusingintergovernmentalfoodaidorganizationstoestablishinternationalgovernance.

No. 2018-2 (November)

© 2018 Asian Development Bank InstituteISSN 2411-6734

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.

Policy Workshop for Agricultural Innovation and Infrastructure Investment3–5 April 2018 Ha Noi, Viet Nam

Organized by the Asian Development Bank Institute and the United Nations Institute for Training and Research.

Thecurrentglobalwarmingtrendsareextremelylikelytobetheresultofhumansocialandeconomicactivitysincethemiddleofthe20thcentury(NASA2018).Evidenceof rapidclimatechangevariesand includesglobalaverage temperature increases,seawater temperature increases, ice sheet loss,glacier retreats, snowfall reduction,risingsea levels, the retreatofArcticsea ice,andextremeevents. Inparticular, theimpacts of extreme events due to climate change, such as droughts, floods, andtyphoons, along with the average temperature rise due to global warming, areespecially important for considerations surrounding food security. Indeed, climatechangewillhavefar-reachinginfluencesoncrop,livestock,andfisheriesproductionandwillchangetheprevalenceofcroppests(Campbelletal.2016).Asaconsequenceof thevast impactof increasingclimatechangeon foodproductionsystems, foodsecuritymightbethreatened(IslamandWong2017).TheWorldBank(2017)reportedthatfoodshortagesduetodroughtaresevereenoughtoaffect80 millionpeopleperday.Currently,400 extremeweathereventsoccuronaverageeachyear,andglobalclimatechangecontinuouslyincreasesclimatehazards.Theseeffectsaremoresevereinpoorcountriesandresultinproblemsincludinghousingshortages,poverty,andfamine (Oxfam 2018). Climate change, in particular, could give rise to food crises,whichwouldintensifypoverty(Figure1).

Climate Change and Food Crises in Asia

These changes in climate are associated with a surge in demand for resources.InAsia, resource consumption is expected to increase in the future as a result ofrising populations, economic development, increased food consumption, andchanges in consumption patterns due to rising incomes. Indeed, income levelsinmajor Asian countries have increased sharply, and the rate of income growthin Southeast Asia as well as that of the People’s Republic of China (PRC) hasbeen steep (Figure 2). Meanwhile, the population of Asia has been steadilyexpanding since 1950 (Figure 3). This increase in population and incomemeansa need formore resources. This enlarged resource consumption leads to various

ADBI Policy Brief No. 2018-2 (November) 2

Figure 1. Cascading Effects of Climate Change Impact on Food Security

Source: Singh (2017: 3).

Aquaticspecies

Cultivatedplants

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Price Quantity Quality

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Incomes Food prices

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Climate change

Precipitation

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Wateravailability

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Diseases

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Atmosphericcomposition

O3 CO2 CH4 N2O

Agricultural Livelihoods Other

LivelihoodsFarmers, �sherfolks,pastoralists, forest dwellers, etc.

Utilization StabilityAvailability Access

How Do We Prevent a Food Crisis in the Midst of Climate Change?2 3

Figure 2: GDP per Capita Trends of Asian Countries (log scale)

GDP = gross domestic product, Lao PDR = Lao People’s Democratic Republic, PPP = purchasing power parity, PRC = People’s Republic of China.

Source: Graph drawn by Gapminder. https://www.gapminder.org

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1 Modified from Kim and Ryu (2018). They present threemore challenges that affect agricultural production: qualification of farmers, lack ofinvestmentcapitaltobuildinfrastructureandsupportthetrainingoffarmers,andlackofpolicymechanisms(legal,politics,budgeting,etc.).

forms of environmental degradation, such as throughthe extraction of more resources, the depletion ofresources,increasingresourceprices,decreasingspeciesdiversity, greenhousegas emissions, landdegradation,water pollution, air pollution, and so on.These factorscontributetoandexacerbateclimate change.

In most Asian countries (excluding the DemocraticPeople’sRepublicofKoreaandSingapore),annualcarbondioxideemissionshaveincreased.TheemissionsgrowthrateappearssteepforBangladesh,Cambodia,Indonesia,thePRC,Thailand,andVietNam(Figure4).

While these trends in Asia can accelerate food crisesbroughtaboutbyclimatechange,theshareofagricultureingrossdomesticproductinAsiancountriesisshrinking(Figure 5). The Food and Agriculture Organization ofthe United Nations (2016) states that the effects ofclimate change on our ecosystems are already severeandwidespread and that ensuring food security in thefaceofclimatechangeisverychallenging.KimandRyu(2018) present the impacts and challenges of climatechangeonagricultureinsixcategories:1

1. Inundation of agricultural land and salineintrusionduetosealevelrise

2. Desertificationduetodrought3. Damageandsoilerosionofcropsandlivestock

causedbyfloods4. Damage to food crops and cattle caused by

typhoonsanddamagetoagriculturalfacilities5. Reduced growth of plants and livestock due

to cold6. Reduced yields of crops and livestock due to

pestsanddiseases

As a result, food shortages due to climate change andreducedinvestmentinacountry’sagriculturesectorcanacceleratea foodcrisis,emphasizingthe importanceofnationalandinternationalresponses.

ThenumberofundernourishedpeopleinthesubregionsofAsia tended todecline from2011 to 2016, except inWest Asia.Forinstance,EastAsiahadthestrongestdecreaseby more than 15 million people from 2011–2013 to2014–2016,followedbySouthAsia(5.4million),SoutheastAsia(600,000),andCentralAsia(300,000).Incontrast,the


Figure 3: Population Trends of Asian Countries (log scale)

Lao PDR = Lao People’s Democratic Republic, PRC = People’s Republic of China.


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Figure 4: Annual CO2 Emissions of Asian Countries (log scale)

CO2 = carbon dioxide, Lao PDR = Lao People’s Democratic Republic, PRC = People’s Republic of China.


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Figure 5: Proportion of Agriculture in GDP of Asian Countries (%)

GDP = gross domestic product, Lao PDR = Lao People’s Democratic Republic, PRC = People’s Republic of China.


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numberofundernourishedpeopleinWestAsiaincreasedbymorethan3 millioninthesameperiod(Figure6).

Similar to the undernutrition trend, the food deficit inthe subregions of Asia tended to decrease from 2011

to 2016, except inWest Asia. Specifically, the averagefood deficit of East Asia had the strongest declineby 10 kilocalories per capita per day (kcal/capita/day),followedbyCentralAsia (7 kcal/capita/day),SouthAsia(6 kcal/capita/day), and Southeast Asia (4 kcal/capita/

Figure 6: Number of People Undernourished in Asia (3-year average)

Source: FAO (2018).

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day).However,thefooddeficitofWestAsiaincreasedby6 kcal/capita/dayinthesameperiod(Figure7).

Experiences of Countries’ Food Crisis ResponsesThe value added of agriculture, forestry, and fishery(VAAFF) increased among regions during 1997–2016,especially in East Asia and the Pacific. For example,by 2016, the VAAFF of East Asia and the Pacific rosesignificantly by nearly $983 billion relative to that in1997. In the same period, the VAAFF of South Asiaincreaseddramaticallybynearly$349billionandthatoftheMiddleEastandNorthAfricabyabout$100billion(Figure8).

As shown in Figure 9, the food production indices ofregionstendedtogrowduring1997–2014.By2014,thefoodproduction indexof EastAsia and thePacifichadincreased by 1.8 times compared to 1997, followed bySouth Asia (1.7 times) and the Middle East and NorthAfrica (1.6 times). These increases imply that the foodproductionofregionsintheworld progressed.

WhatwillbeimportantforpolicyinAsiancountrieswhenfoodsecuritycrisesrelatedtoclimatechangeariseinthenear future is the valuable experience of respondingto the 2007–2008 food crisis in the region. The crisiswas brought about by the steep rise in food prices in2007–2008; each country tried to escape the crisis in

its own way. As a result, the Association of SoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN)establishedtheASEANPlusThreeEmergency Rice Reserve (APTERR), an internationalfood crisis response organization providing food aid.Managingfoodsecurityanditssustainabledevelopmentisatremendouschallengeglobally.About1.7billionpoorpeople live in countries inSouthAsiaand sub-SaharanAfrica (Chen and Ravallion 2007), ofwhich 860millionpeoplearecoveredbyfoodsecurity(Misra2014).Wewilllookatthefoodpolicyofindividualcountriesatthetimeofthefoodcrisisandtrytoderiveimplicationsforfuturefoodcrisesrelatedtoclimatechange.

Each ASEAN member state has its own strategy inresponding to a food crisis.Thailand andVietNamaremajorriceexporters,whileIndonesiaandthePhilippinesarericeimporters.Myanmarisworkingtoobtainalevelof agricultural competitiveness that will enable thecountry toexport rice,which ithadpreviouslydone inthe1950s.BruneiDarussalamandSingaporeonlyimportthe best-quality rice. Although the approaches amongthe countries differ, all expect to achieve their targetsin terms of food security (Astriana, Arif, and Fadhilla2015). Malaysia has developed short- and long-termpolicymeasuresundertheNationalFoodSecurityPolicyfor enhancingpaddyand riceproduction, especially inSabahandSarawak.However,therehasbeenwidespreaddiscontentanddisequilibriuminthelocalplowlandandrice market due to irrational extensive interventionsin the Miller Subsidy and Beras Nasional programs(Tey 2010).

kcal = kilocalorie.

Source: FAO (2018).

Figure 7: Average Food Deficit in Asia (3-year average)

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In2007,theriseinfoodpricesinVietNamwasthemostimportantcauseofhighinflation.Itsimilarlyhadasevereimpact on the poor and low-income population. As aresult, the government made efforts to promote foodproduction, investing in irrigation facilities, setting upthe National Seed Program, stabilizing oil prices, andreducing or exempting irrigation fees. There are alsoplans to increase the yield of the third crop (autumn–winter), apply restrictions on agricultural land, andincreaseinvestmentinagriculturaltechnology.

RiskanduncertaintyareincreasinginSouthAsiabecauseof the greater frequency of extreme events due toclimate change as well as the increased possibility oftemperature-influenceddiseasesandpestsduetoglobalwarming(ShahandLele2011).Foodandwatersecurityin the regionhavegivenrise to thehighestprevalenceof both child and adult undernutrition.Therefore, landandwaterresourcemanagement inthis region ismoreurgentlyrequiredthananywhereintheworld(ShahandLele 2011).

Source: World Bank (2018a).

Figure 8: Value Added of Agriculture, Forestry, and Fishery of Regions in the World

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Source: World Bank (2018b).

Figure 9: Food Production Indices of Regions in the World

East Asia and the Paci�c (excluding high income)Middle East and North Africa (excluding high income)South Asia

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Bangladesh has tried to address the shortage of rice,but the surge in food prices has been crucial (WorldBank 2010: 90). In 2007, three cyclones (respectivelyin July, September, and November) caused significantdamage to the aman (main monsoon season, June toOctober) andaus(shortseason,ApriltoMay) ricecrops.Duetothesecroplosses,thepriceofricebegantosoarandcausedpanic in the ricemarket in the lastquarterof 2007. Export restrictions in rice-exporting countriesled to soaring world market prices and aggravatedmarket instability. Tomakematters worse, India raiseditsminimumriceexportpricefrom$425permetricton(October 2007) to $1,000 permetric ton (March 2008).Tocounter this, thegovernmentandtheprivatesectorimported1.7millionmetrictonsofriceandimplementedapolicytostabilizericeprices.Effortsweremadetoraisefoodpricesbyadjustingricepurchaseprices,supplyingseeds, subsidizing chemical fertilizers, and increasingfood storage toprepare foremergencies.However, thedomestic price of rice had risen by more than 50%,leading togeneral price increases. Furthermore, effortstosupplyhigh-quality seeds to increasedomestic foodproduction were also hampered. As a result, incomegrowth stagnated due to deepening poverty in thecountry. In response to this foodcrisis, theBangladeshgovernment aimed to increase public food storage to1.5 millionmetrictons.

In Nepal, in view of the 2007–2008 food crisis, aswell as the country’s low average per capita incomelevel ($320 in2006)andhighpoverty rate (31%), theshare of food purchases in household consumptionis relatively high (World Bank 2010: 109). Furtherexacerbatingthesituationisthelackofasocialsafetynetforfood,thelimitedareaofagriculturalland,andlow agricultural productivity. When the food crisisbrokeout,people inthemountainousareasofNepalsuffered the most. As such, there is a difference inthe severity of the food crisis interregionally in thatithashadamoresevereimpactonpoorhouseholds.Consideringtherelatively longborderbetween IndiaandNepal,thereisactivericetradebetweenthetwocountries.Thus,thepriceofriceinthetwocountriesishighlycorrelated,andNepalassumestheroleofpricetaker. As a result, India’s export restrictions on ricesinceOctober2007putanupwardpressureonNepal(WorldBank2010:109).

Intermsofensuringfoodsecurity,Nepalhasprioritizedimproving its irrigation facilities to raise grainproductivity, increase trade in diverse seeds with highyields in terms of inputs to increase food production,and expand the share of agriculture in gross domestic

product. Taking into consideration the serious foodproblemsinmountainousareas,effortsarebeingmadetoincreaseaccessibilityinthenorthwesternregion.

India was the least affected by the food crisis in2007–2008.DomesticricepricesinIndiaarelessvolatilethaninternationalprices,andthegovernmentisdeeplyinvolvedinagriculturesothatdomesticfoodpricesarerelativelystable.By2007,foodpricesintheinternationalmarkethad increasedby160%,while Indianwholesaleprices rose by only 7.9%. This limited the impact ofinternational market price increases on domesticconsumersinIndia.However,India’sagriculturalgrowthrate is gradually decreasing, and countermeasures areneeded. Like other South Asian countries, the averageproductivityof agriculture in India isquite low (Kumar,Mittal, and Hossain 2008). Milesi et al. (2010) assertedthat the main reason for India’s poor productivity inagricultureis“perverseagriculturalpoliciesandsubsidyregimes”ratherthanclimatechange.

Investmentsinirrigationfacilitiesandwatermanagementare essential, and efforts are needed to strengtheninformation and knowledge on climate change andits effects. In addition, there should be emphasis onstrengtheningresearchanddevelopmentrelatedtoriceandwheat.

Suggestions for Ensuring Food SecurityBasedon theabovediscussion,weplan to findways torespond to a future food crisis. It is important to notethatsuchafoodcrisis inthefuture is likelytobeduetoclimate change. Increasing socioeconomic factors, suchaspopulation and income, aswell as thedeclineof theagriculture sector also relate to climate changeand canaccelerate the food crisis. Climate change can triggerthe occurrence of extreme meteorological events, suchas average temperature rises, rising sea levels, floods,typhoons, and droughts. The result is a decrease incultivated land, a decline in crop growth, and a shift inthe main crop growth environment and crop yields. Inparticular,thelowpredictabilityofextremeeventsmakesit difficult to prepare for a food crisis. In addition, pastexperience, particularly in 2007–2008, shows that foodcrisesoccurnotonlyatthenationallevelbutalsoattheinternational level and that, furthermore, the impact isgreaterthelowerthesocioeconomiclevel.

Of foremost importance is governance. There need tobe systems of governance to work on resolving food


Table 1: Dimensions of Food Crisis Countermeasures

Dimension Proactive Measures Post-response MeasuresDomestic Diversificationoffood,expansionofcultivationarea,

andincreaseininvestmentsinagricultureandirrigationbusiness

Agriculturalsubsidies,foodpurchases,andgratuitousdistribution

International Stockpilingofcerealsthroughinternationalorganizations

Grantaidamongcountriesandexportandimportofgrain

Technology Developmentofagriculturaltechnologytoimprovecropyield(cultivarimprovement,fertilizerandpestcontrol,etc.),watermanagement,smartfarming,andresearchandtechnologytopredictforclimatechange

Analysisoffoodcrisissituation(influence,regionaldeviation,etc.),andplatformforcooperationbetweengovernmentandprivatesector

Source: Compiled by the authors.

crises among Asian countries or between the publicandtheprivatesectorswithincountries.Thebasisofthegovernment’sroleinthepastfoodcrisiswastoexpandthe cultivated area, develop and disseminate highyielding seeds, and subsidize agriculture-related costs,suchasoilandfertilizer. Inaddition, intergovernmentalfood aid organizations, such as APTERR, have beenestablished to ensure international governance at alltimes. While the food price hike between 2007 and2008 led to a food crisis in Asian countries, it alsoestablished an interstate system of countermeasuresand compelled each country to establish policies andresponsemeasures. One resulting evaluation could bethat the roleof thecountries thathavesuffereda foodcrisis and the manner of cooperation between thecountriesarestructuredinaformalway.

The solution for future food crises must be differentfrom the existing solution. Instead of resolving theproblem after a food crisis occurs, solving a climatechange-related food crisis will require advancemeasures.Inthefollowing,thesolutionstoafoodcrisisarelargelyexaminedintermsofdomestic, foreign,andtechnologicalaspects(Table1).

Asapreliminarycountermeasureat thedomestic level,one suggestion may be to expand investments inagricultureandirrigationprojects.Thereisalsoaneedtodiversifytheimpactintheeventofashortageofspecificcrops through the diversification of food demand.Furthermore,various subsidiesexist toprevent farmersfrom falling into poverty when a food crisis occurs, inadditiontothefreedistributionofstatestockpiles.

Proactive countermeasures at the international levelincludetheinstitutionalizationofthestockpilingofgrainforfreegrantsamongcountries.InAsia,APTERRisbeingimplemented.Post-responsemeasurescouldbetogrant

aid between countries and mutual assistance in theexportandimportofgrainortrade.

From a technical point of view, the development ofagriculturaltechnology(breedingimprovement,fertilizerand pest-related technology, etc.), water management,and smart farming are suggested for improving cropyields. In addition, efforts to advance climate changeresearchandforecastingtechniquesshouldbeincluded.Following a food crisis, it is important to identify theproblem by analyzing the size and variation of theimpactofthefoodcrisis.Afurtherrequirementistoshareinformationandresourcesusingaplatformthoughwhichgovernmentsandtheprivatesectorcancooperate.

Finally, there needs to be general agreement in termsof foodsecurityas countrieswillbe required toproducemorefoodonadeclininglandfarmingarea,withreducedwaterandlaborresourcesandinthefaceofmorevariableweather and increased consumer demand for safe food.Hence, exploring new sources of food production andreducing the large amounts of food loss and waste arefeasiblesolutionsinordertoenhancefoodproduction.Inaddition,foodtradeiscrucialforensuringtheavailabilityoffoodinallregionsoftheworld(TengandOliveros2015).

Climatechangeisaglobalphenomenon,buttheimpactsofrelatedfoodcrisesareexpectedtobegreaterinAsia,particularly in the context of the region’s industrialstructure, population structure, and food culture. Inthe long term, it will be necessary to actively andproactivelyrespondtofuturefoodcrisesatthenationaland international levels. It isnecessary toaddress foodsecurity in its broadest sense and integrate it in thedevelopment of agriculture worldwide. “Climate-smartagriculture”canbebuiltupbyimprovingtechnologyandmanagement systems to achieve global food security(WheelerandBraun2013).


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