how democratic energy fits the rural electric philosophy
TRANSCRIPT
T H E C O M I N G D E M O C R AT I C E N E R G Y F U T U R E
E L E C T R O N S O N T H E R U N
John Farrell Director of Democratic Energy
March 12, 2014
Two Themes
S E L F - R E L I A N C E
E C O N O M I C D E V E L O P M E N T
D E M O C R AT I C E N E R G Y I N T H E 2 0 T H C E N T U R Y
S E L F - R E L I A N C E
E C O N O M I C D E V E L O P M E N T
P E R C E N T O F FA R M S W I T H E L E C T R I C S E R V I C E
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980
!
Volunteers for REA went door-to-door signing up farmers for $5 a share.
Runestone Electric Association
S E L F - R E L I A N C E
What REA service means to our farm home
Lights Radio
Refrigerator Washing machine
By Rose Dudley Scearce Member, Shelby (Ky.) Rural Electric Cooperative
E C O N O M I C D E V E L O P M E N T
Clothes iron Electric range
Electric water pump Vacuum cleaner
Source: New Deal Network
E C O N O M I C D E V E L O P M E N T
“The REA loans contributed significantly to increases in crop output and crop productivity”
Source: Flip the Switch: The Spatial Impact of the Rural Electrification Administration 1935-1940 (December 2013)
D E M O C R AT I C E N E R G Y I N T H E 2 1 S T C E N T U R Y
S E L F - R E L I A N C E
E C O N O M I C D E V E L O P M E N T
VA L U A B L E
$0.00
$0.03
$0.06
$0.08
$0.11
$0.14
Brown energy replacement
Avoided transmission losses
Environmental (RPS compliance)
Avoided transmission access
Local capacity value
(per kWh)
Minnesota Value of SolarUtilities value DG
14.5¢*
$??? billion in energy exports
$20 billion in energy exports
$20 billion in potential
By turning energy imports into local energy production
Total Economic Impact
Locally Owned Renewable Energy
L O C A L P O W E R VA L U E
Not local
0 25 50 75 100
very negative negative neutral positive very positive
L O C A L P O W E R VA L U E
Attitude towards increased use of local wind energy
Not local
0 25 50 75 100
very negative negative neutral positive very positive
-44%
+33%
+77% net approvalLocal
Ownership
C O S T- E F F E C T I V E
0¢
5¢
10¢
15¢
20¢
Past Now Future
Subsidized Solar Parity
Unsubsidized Solar Parity
S O L A R PA R I T Y
¢ per kilowatt-hour
How fast are electricity prices rising?
0¢
3¢
6¢
9¢
12¢
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
R A P I D LY R I S I N G AV E R A G E R E TA I L E L E C T R I C I T Y P R I C E S ( R U N E S T O N E )
???% per year
0¢
3¢
6¢
9¢
12¢
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
R A P I D LY R I S I N G AV E R A G E R E TA I L E L E C T R I C I T Y P R I C E S ( R U N E S T O N E )
¢ per kilowatt-hourSource: EIA
4.7% per year
0¢
10¢
20¢
30¢
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Average Retail PriceSolar No SubsidySolar w/ ITCSolar w/ ITC+MACRS
S O L A R “ PA R I T Y ” H E R E ?
¢ per kilowatt-hour
P O T E N T I A L
POTENTIAL PERCENT OF POWER FROM LOCAL
RENEWABLES
100% or more 50 to 100% 25 to 50% 10 to 25% 10% or less
L O C A L R E N E W A B L E P O T E N T I A L
32 states - 100%+
O P P O R T U N I T Y
Distributed Solar Potential at Parity (unsubsidized) by 2022 (residential and commercial MW)
8500
590
750
30,000
16,000
7200
11,000
1800
990
360012,000
780
7000
8200
510011,000
190026,0002400
7300
5100
360
26001100
1200
800
14004800
1800
32,000
5000
580
970
2300
4100
4400
2900
7200
6800
2800
7100
11,000
11,000
550010,000
12,000
20
1140700
4000
Percent of Sales1-5%5-10%10% or more
C O M M U N I T Y S O L A R
Wright-Hennepin Cooperative Electric Association Lake Region Electric Cooperative
L O C A L G E N E R AT I O NSaving $100 million in new power infrastructure
Long Island Power Authority
L O C A L P O W E R
S A N TA F EB O U L D E R
2x Coal
Local studies suggest the cities could double
renewable energy on the local grid at a comparable
cost of electricity
T H A N K Y O U !
http://www.ilsr.org/initiatives/energy/
S E L F - R E L I A N C E
E C O N O M I C D E V E L O P M E N T