!!!

Oliver!Kaplan,!Ph.D.!The!Korbel!School!of!Interna9onal!Studies!

!!!

Oliver.Kaplan@du.edu!

!h>p://mysite.du.edu/~okaplan2!!

!1!

How$Communi*es$Use$Nonviolent$Strategies$$to$Avoid$Civil$War$Violence$

Interna9onal!Center!for!Nonviolent!Conflict!!

Webinar!January!30,!2013!

The!Puzzle!!

•  Do#non%violent#strategies#provide#protec2on#against#heavily#armed#violent#actors?#

•  “Culture!of!Peace”:!What!is!it?!How!does!it!work?!

•  The!goal!of!nonUviolent!strategies!during!conflicts!– Autonomy:!local!decisionUmaking!and!selfUrule!

–  Stay!out!of!conflicts!–  Isolate!“extremists”!

•  Civilian!strategies!are!difficult!to!document!and!analyze—they!are!the!“dogs!that!don’t!bark”!

The!Challenge!of!Civilian!Strategies!

•  Humanitarian!interven9ons!are!rare!and!weak!

•  Individuals!face!danger!confron9ng!belligerents!•  Civilians!face!a!free!rider!problem:!

– All!want!protec9on,!but!taking!ac9on!is!dangerous!•  The!public!good!of!community!protec9on!is!

underUprovided!

•  Even!if!all!residents!have!pacifist!preferences!they!may!be!afraid!to!act!and!need!reassurance!

Outline!

I.  Introduc9on!to!nonUviolence!during!conflict!

II.  Theories!of!violence!III.  Inventory!of!community!protec9on!strategies!

IV.  Comparing!strategies!

V.  Logics!of!armed!actor!responses!

VI.  Conclusion!

I.!Introduc9on!to!NonUviolence!!

During!Conflict!

!•  The!breadth!of!nonUviolent!movements!

•  The!role!of!community!coopera9on!and!

organiza9on!

Compara9ve!Examples!of!!

Civilian!Autonomy!in!Civil!War!!

6!

Source:!!Author’s!coding!

Cases!of!collec9ve!ac9ons!for!protec9on!in!civil!conflicts!

Colombia!

Philippines!

Afghanistan!

Russia!

Mexico!

Vietnam!

Congo!

Mozambique!

!

The!Power!of!Organiza9on!

•  Lone!individuals!are!vulnerable!•  Community!organiza9on!helps!civilians!cooperate:!

– Formal!peace!organiza9ons!

•  “Peace!Zones”,!“Peace!Communi9es”,!“Humanitarian!

Spaces”,!etc.!

–  Informal!organiza9ons!leveraged!for!protec9on!

•  Village!councils,!economic!coopera9ves,!religious!

ins9tu9ons,!etc.!

Organiza*on$!$Strategies$!$$Violence$!

PreUexis9ng!Organiza9ons!

How!Coopera9on!and!Organiza9on!!

Helps!Civilians!

1.  DecisionUmaking!capacity!

2.  Informa9on!management!

3.  Collec9ve!memory!and!learning!

4.  Implement!collec9ve!strategies!and!advocacy!

5.  Resilience!to!threats!!

9!

Which!Organiza9ons!Ma>er?!

•  Some!organiza9ons!provide!civilians!with!be>er!prospects!to!deal!with!violence!than!others!

•  Certain!organiza9onal!characteris9cs!enhance!capacity,!limit!spoilers,!and!help!avoid!retalia9on!

!Helpful!organiza9onal!characteris9cs:!!

!DecisionUmaking!

!Legi9mate!

!Broad!in!coverage!

!Apoli9cal!(?)!

10!

II.!Why!Are!Civilians!Killed?!

•  Genocide!and!“draining!the!sea”!(Valen9no)!•  Rebel!indiscipline!and!abuse!(Weinstein)!

•  Collateral!damage!

•  Selec9ve!targe9ng!(Kalyvas)!– Coerce!support!through!fear,!by!zones!of!control!– Mechanism!of!denuncia9ons!of!enemy!collaborators!

to!armed!groups!

11!

!!!Civilian!organiza9onal!mechanisms!primarily!!

!!!solve!problems!of!selec9ve!violence!

!

III.!Inventory!of!NonUviolent!Strategies!

1.  Dispute!resolu9on!(local!harmony)!

2.  Propagate!norms!of!nonUpar9cipa9on!

3.  Informa9on!and!policing!of!collaborators!

4.  Protest!and!reputa9on!effects!5.  Early!warning!systems!

12!

“Weapons!of!the!Weak”!for!conflict!semngs!

Types!of!Protec9on!Strategies!

•  Subtle!“weapons!of!the!weak”!– Managing!communi9es!

–  Indirect!influence/!armed!actors!unaware!

•  Overt!protest!– Direct!interac9ons!with!armed!actors!(dialogue)!

– Direct!ac9ons!against!armed!actors!(protest)!

•  Alterna9ves!to!nonUviolent!autonomy!strategies!

– Do!nothing/!displace!– Arming!

1.!Dispute!resolu9on!(local!harmony)!

•  Armed!groups!prey!on!disputes!and!divisions!to!

exert!their!authority!

•  Harmonious!rela9ons!among!residents!mean!

fewer!disputes!breakUout!

•  Civilians!can!ac9vely!resolve!disputes!among!

residents!and!block!armed!group!inroads!

•  Example:!Local!Coordina9ng!Commi>ees!in!Syria!

2.!Norms!of!nonUpar9cipa9on!

and!nonUviolence!

•  Promote!ideologies!of!pacifism,!nonUviolence,!

nonUpar9cipa9on!in!the!conflict!

•  Peaceful!resolu9on!of!disputes!•  Manage!and!incen9vize!behavior!of!residents!

to!avoid!armed!groups!

•  Alterna9ve!ac9vi9es!to!joining!armed!groups!

•  Limit!recruitment!to!and!manpower!for!armed!

groups!

Banning!weapons!!

in!the!Philippines!

3.!Dialogue!and!the!“inves9ga9ons”!mechanism!!

1.  Violence!is!costly!to!both!armed!groups!and!communi9es!

2.  Civilian!organiza9ons!can!use!advantages!in!local!informa9on!to!iden9fy!enemy!collaborators!for!armed!groups!

3.  Armed!groups!value!this!informa9on!because!policing!defec9on!is!difficult!

4.  This!limits!violence!in!two!ways:!

!i.!!Keeps!armed!groups!from!mistakenly!killing!nonUdefectors!

!!!!!!!ii.!!Increases!costs!to!civilians!for!aiding!armed!groups!

18!

Example:!The!Peasant!Workers!Associa9on!of!the!Carare!!(ATCC!in!Colombia;!Kaplan,!Oliver.!Journal#of#Peace#Research,!May!2013)!!

Mul9Usport!courts:!Mee9ng!Places!in!Colombia!

4.!Protest!and!Reputa9on!Effects!

•  Impose!costs!on!armed!actors!and!draw!outside!a>en9on!to!deter!violence!– Declara9ons!of!neutrality!!– Dialogue,!moral!appeals,!rhetorical!traps!!

–  “Go!public”!to!denounce!aggression!and!abuses!and!shame!armed!actors!

–  Threat!of!protest!– Mass!nonUviolent!manpower!and!unarmed!guards!

•  Accompaniment!from!NGOs!and!external!actors!

!

!!Even!sta9ng!neutral!inten9ons!of!communi9es!can!be!viewed!as!hos9le!(e.g.,!peace!communi9es)!

Marching!Against!Violence!

Protest!and!Reputa9on!Effects!

Examples:!!

•  Nasa!indigenous!group!of!Colombia!

•  Villages!in!Afghanistan!

5.!Early!Warning!Systems!

•  Informa9on!networks!to!provide!early!warning!of!combat!to!avoid!violence!

– Convince!armed!actors!to!fight!outside!the!boundaries!of!civilian!se>lements!

– Temporary!displacement!or!shelter!residents!un9l!figh9ng!has!subsided!

•  May!be!set!up!within!the!community!or!through!dialogues!with!combatants!

•  Examples:!Congo,!Syria,!Colombia!

IV.!Comparing!Strategies!

•  Determinants!of!strategic!choice!

– Conten9ousness!of!strategies!•  Organiza9onal!requirements!

•  Costs!imposed!on!armed!actors!

•  Risks!of!armed!actor!retalia9on!

–  Ideas!and!cultural!predisposi9ons!for!par9cular!approaches!

Conten9ousness!of!NonUviolent!Strategies!

•!Organiza9on!requirements!!

increasing!in!conten9ousness!

!

•!Costs!on!armed!groups!!

increasing!in!conten9ousness!

!

•!Risk!of!retalia9on!!

increasing!in!conten9ousness!

!

! Does!greater!conten9ousness!!yield!greater!protec9on?!

Displace!

Ally!!

Dispute!resolu9on!(local!harmony)!

Early!warning!systems!

Norms!of!nonUpar9cipa9on!

Inves9ga9ons!mechanism!!Bar!arms!and!armed!groups!!Protest!and!reputa9on!effects!

Armed!resistance!

!

Conten*ousness$of$Civilian$Strategy$Low$$

High$

V.!Logics!of!Armed!Actor!Responses!

•  Fewer!inroads!to!communi9es!and!fewer!resources!

•  Moral!considera9ons!–  Ending!an!en9re!village!and!a>acking!organiza9ons!mean!greater!“moral”!costs!

•  Rhetorical!traps!and!inconsistencies!with!rebel!ideologies!•  Reputa9on!with!observers!(harder!to!achieve!objec9ves)!

–  Local!(broader!popula9on!and!other!villages)!–  Interna9onal!backers!– Military!may!be!drawn!to!region!

•  “Not!worth!the!marginal!gains”!to!a>ack!organized!villages!

•  Fissures!within!armed!groups!about!uses!of!violence!

Hybrid!Armed!Groups!

Opportunis9c!!

abusers!

Controlled!zone!

Contested!zone!

Contesta9on!

Hybrid!groups!are!both!mo9vated!to!use!violence!

and!may!be!suscep9ble!to!civilian!strategies!

Ideological!!

‘angels’!

Resource!bases!

VI.!Conclusion!

•  Civilians!exercise!agency!even!in!hos9le!semngs!

•  Community!organiza9on!and!coopera9on!facilitates!diverse!non%violent#protec9on!strategies!

•  Strategies!have!the!highest!odds!of!success!when!adapted!to!communi9es,!coopera9on!levels,!conflict!condi9ons,!and!types!of!threats!

–  Inves9ga9ons!(selec9ve!violence)!vs.!protest!(abuse)!•  NonUviolent!strategies!may!entail!risks!

•  Analyze!condi9ons!for!success,!armed!actor!mo9va9ons,!and!likely!responses!

Thank!You!