how britain voted in the 2017 election...how the voters voted in the 2015 general election –ipsos...

How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC

© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be

disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

1

Ipsos MORI estimates

How the voters voted

in the 2017 election

2How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC

Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor

How Britain voted by gender – overall men and women had similar

voting patterns

44% 43%

40%42%

7% 8%

2% 1%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

Male Female

Base: 7,505 GB adults aged 18+ (5,255 classified as voters), interviewed telephone and online 21 April – 7 June 2017. Data has been weighted to the actual results by region and to the

population profile of Great Britain.

CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEM UKIP

% e

stim

ate

d v

ote

sh

are



The change since 2015 was also similar by gender

6% 6%

11%

9%

-1%

0%

-12%-11%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Male FemaleBase: 7,505 GB adults aged 18+ (5,255 classified as voters), interviewed telephone and online 21 April – 7 June 2017. Data has been weighted to the actual results by region and

to the population profile of Great Britain.


+/-

chan

ge in

% e

stim

ate

d v

ote

sh

are

sin

ce 2

015



How Britain voted by age – the biggest age gap we’ve seen since our

estimates started in 1979

27% 27%33%

43%

51%

61%62%

56%

49%

40%

34%

25%

5%9% 10%

7% 7% 7%2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Base: 7,505 GB adults aged 18+ (5,255 classified as voters), interviewed telephone and online 21 April – 7 June 2017. Data has been weighted to the actual results by region and



% e

stim

ate

d v

ote

sh

are



Change since 2015 by age: there was a swing to Labour among

under 44s, and a swing to the Conservatives among over 55s

-1%

-6%

-2%

7%

14% 14%

20% 20%

14%

8%

3% 3%1%

2%0%

-1%-2%

-1%

7%

-9%-8%

-12% -12%-13%-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+




+/-

chan

ge in

% e

stim

ate

d v

ote

sh

are

sin

ce 2

015



Young women were even more likely to vote Labour than young men

36%

30%

40%

56%

18%

24%

37%

58%

52% 54%

42%

30%

73%

58%

46%

27%

5%8% 8%

6% 5%10% 8% 8%

1% 1% 2% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

18-24 25-34 35-54 55+ 18-24 25-34 35-54 55+



Men Women


% e

stim

ate

d v

ote

sh

are



How Britain voted by social class – best score for Labour among ABC1s

since our data series began in 1979, best score for the Conservatives

among C2DEs

47%44% 45%

38%37%40% 41%

47%

10%7% 6% 5%

1% 2% 2% 3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

AB C1 C2 DE




% e

stim

ate

d v

ote

sh

are



Since 2015, swing to Labour among ABC1s. Among C2DEs, Conservative

vote share up even more than Labour, UKIP down substantially

2% 2%

13% 12%11%

12%

9%

6%

-2%-1%

0% 0%

-6%

-9%

-17%

-14%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

AB C1 C2 DEBase: 7,505 GB adults aged 18+ (5,255 classified as voters), interviewed telephone and online 21 April – 7 June 2017. Data has been weighted to the actual results by region and



+/-

chan

ge in

% e

stim

ate

d v

ote

sh

are

sin

ce 2

015



Broadly similar voting patterns by gender within class

50%

43% 45%

36%

43% 44% 45%

38%34%

40% 41%

48%

40% 40%42%

47%

10%8% 5%

4%

11%7% 7% 6%

1% 2% 3%5%

1% 2% 1% 2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

AB C1 C2 DE AB C1 C2 DE



Men Women


% e

stim

ate

d v

ote

sh

are



Since 2015, both men and women ABC1s have swung to Labour

4%

1%

14%11%

-1%

3%

11% 11%10%

14%

9% 8%

12%10% 9%

5%

-1%

0% 0% 0%

-1% -1%

0% 1%

-8%-10%

-19%

-13%

-4%

-8%

-16% -15%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

AB C1 C2 DE AB C1 C2 DE



Men Women


+/- change in % estimated vote share since 2015



How Britain voted: class patterns seen within age, age patterns seen

within class

31%27% 27%

18%

45%

38% 40%

27%

61% 60% 59%

49%52%

58%62%

70%

38%

43% 44%

55%

24% 25%28%

37%

10%7% 6% 4%

11% 8%5% 6%

10%7% 6% 5%

1% 1% *4%

1% 1% 3% 3% 1% 3% 2% 3%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

AB C1 C2 DE AB C1 C2 DE AB C1 C2 DE



18-34 35-54 55+


% estimated vote share



How Britain voted by housing tenure: renters strongly Labour, home-

owners Conservative, mortgage holders split

55%

43%

26%

31%30%

40%

57%54%

7%9%

4%7%

2% 2%4%

1%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Owned Mortgage Social renter Private renter




% e

stim

ate

d v

ote

sh

are



Since 2015, both Conservatives and Labour increased share among all

groups, private renters and mortgage holders swung more to Labour.

9%

4%

8%

3%

7%8% 8%

15%

-2%

0%1% 1%

-13%

-8%

-15%

-10%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%





+/-

chan

ge in

% e

stim

ate

d v

ote

sh

are

sin

ce 2

015



How Britain voted by ethnicity – Labour keeps strong lead among

BME voters

45%

19%

39%

73%

8%6%

2%*

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

White All BME




% e

stim

ate

d v

ote

sh

are



Since 2015, Labour increased share among both white and BME voters,

but Conservatives lost ground among BME voters

6%

-4%

11%

8%

0%

2%

-12%

-2%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

White All BME




+/-

chan

ge in

% e

stim

ate

d v

ote

sh

are

sin

ce 2

015



How Britain voted: education level is another clear dividing line

52%

46%

33%35%

39%

48%

4%6%

12%

4%2%

*0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

No qualifications Other qualifications Degree or higher




% e

stim

ate

d v

ote

sh

are



How Britain voted: Conservative and Labour both held on to most of

their 2015 vote, but LibDems only kept half of theirs. Six in ten UKIP

voters switched Conservative, most 2015 non-voters went Labour

87%

7%

15%

60%

27%

8%

88%

30%

16%

60%

3% 3%

51%

1%5%

* * *

18%

1%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Conservatives Labour Liberal Democrats UKIP Did not vote (exc. too

young)Base: 7,505 GB adults aged 18+ (5,255 classified as voters), interviewed telephone and online 21 April – 7 June 2017. Data has been weighted to the actual results by region and



% e

stim

ate

d v

ote

sh

are



Conservatives won among 2016 Leave voters, Labour won among 2016

Remainers and those who did not vote

26%

65%

23%

54%

24%

66%

13%

2%4%

*4%

1%0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Remain Leave Did not vote (exc. too young)




% e

stim

ate

d v

ote

sh

are


Turnout estimates

As we have noted before, estimating turnout is one of the hardest challenges when relying solely on survey data.

Despite the changes we have introduced to our methodology since 2015, which we believe have made our samples

more representative, polls may still be more likely to interview politically engaged people than those who are

disengaged, people may over-estimate their likelihood of voting, and they may think they are registered when in fact

they are not. For post-election analysis we have the advantage of knowing how many people turned out in the end,

but we still have to identify them in our data on the basis of the answers they gave before the election. This means that

the turnout estimates given here should be treated with particular caution, including taking into account the voter

validation results from the British Election Study when these are published (in previous elections these have shown a

similar pattern to our estimates).

The turnout figures in these charts express turnout as a % of all resident adults, which is what our sample is based on.

This gives a figure lower than the “official turnout” figures usually used, which is a % of the number of names on the

electoral register (as not everyone in Britain is registered, and some people may be registered twice even though they

can only vote once). The two measures should not be confused. We have also provided a figure for all those registered

in the full analysis on our website, however for the reasons expressed here we believe the figures based on all adults are

both more reliable and more meaningful.

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2017-election

https://www.ipsos.com/ipsos-mori/en-uk/how-britain-voted-2016-eu-referendum



Older people are still more likely to vote than younger people

54% 55% 56%

66%71% 71%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+



% e

stim

ate

d t

urn

ou

t am

on

g a

ll a

du

lts



However the turnout gap has narrowed (which started in the 2016 EU

referendum) – young people were more likely to vote in GE2017 than 2015

38%

53% 54%47%

54% 55%58%

64%

56%

67% 69%66%

72%76%

71%74% 73% 71%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

GE 2015 EU 2016 GE 2017

18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+Base: 7,505 GB adults aged 18+ (5,255 classified as voters), interviewed telephone and online 21 April – 7 June 2017. Data has been weighted to the actual results by region and


% e

stim

ate

d t

urn

ou

t am

on

g a

ll a

du

lts



Social classes ABC1 remain more likely to vote than classes C2DE

69%68%

60%

53%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

AB C1 C2 DE



% e

stim

ate

d t

urn

ou

t am

on

g a

ll a

du

lts



Turnout among social classes C1C2 slightly higher than in GE2015

71%74%

69%64%

68% 68%

56%

62% 60%

51%

57%53%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

GE 2015 EU 2016 GE 2017

AB C1 C2 DE



% e

stim

ate

d t

urn

ou

t am

on

g a

ll a

du

lts



Owner-occupiers more likely to vote than renters

70% 68%

52% 53%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%




% e

stim

ate

d t

urn

ou

t am

on

g a

ll a

du

lts



Trends in turnout by tenure

72%75%

70%64%

70% 68%

51%54% 52%

45%

53% 53%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

GE 2015 EU 2016 GE 2017

Owner Mortgage Social renter Private renter



% e

stim

ate

d t

urn

ou

t am

on

g a

ll a

du

lts



Turnout was highest among graduates

60% 61%

69%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

No Qualifications Other Qualifications Degree or higher



% e

stim

ate

d t

urn

ou

t am

on

g a

ll a

du

lts



White voters were more likely to vote than BME voters

64%

53%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

White All BME



% e

stim

ate

d t

urn

ou

t am

on

g a

ll a

du

lts



However the turnout gap between white and BME voters narrowed this year

63%68%

64%

47% 47%

53%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

GE 2015 EU 2016 GE 2017

White All BME



% e

stim

ate

d t

urn

ou

t am

on

g a

ll a

du

lts

How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC

© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be

disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.

29

Ipsos MORI estimates

How the voters voted

in the 2017 election

how britain voted in the 2017 election...how the voters voted in the 2015 general election –ipsos...

Documents