how brazilian immigrants vote - 2010 elections

How Brazilian Immigrants Vote (Presidential Elections 2010)

Alvaro Lima, February 2013

Brazilian Immigrant Electorate Characteris@cs…

 According to the elec.on commission (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral), the number of Brazilian voters abroad increased significantly, going from 69,937 in 2002 to 86,360 in 2006, surpassing 200,000 voters in 2010; •

  The Brazilian electorate abroad comprises 1.85% of the Brazilian electorate, totaling 135,804,433 voters;

 Brazilian voters abroad are mainly females (60.4%) with a higher degree of educa.on than Brazilian men abroad. While only 29% of the laQer have finished college, 33% of Brazilian women voters have college degrees. The mean college-‐level educa.on of the total electorate abroad is 31.16%. Sixty four per cent of voters in the total electorate with a college degree or higher are women;••

  The majority of voters abroad are between the ages of 25 and 59 (83.7%). Younger voters between the ages of 16 and 24, represent only 9.53% of total voters abroad. Voters over 60 years of age total 6.61%;

 Brazilian immigrant voters are concentrated in Europe (51%), followed by North America (26%); La.n America & the Caribbean (12%); Asia (7%); the Middle East (2%); Oceania (1%); and Africa (1%):

•  July 2010 data. Available at hQp://www.tse.jus.br/internet/eleicoes/regi_uf_blank.htm. •• The educa.onal profile of the electorate has not changed much from elec.on to elec.on, with a small varia.on in the voters with complete and incomplete college; 34,43% and 15.78 in 2002; 34,31% and 15,09% in 2006; 31,16% and 13,88% in 2010 respec.vely. Note 1: The sta.s.cs that reference the Brazilian electorate abroad include Brazilian immigrants and non-‐immigrants such as the members of the diploma.c corps, students, etc.. Note 2: According to Ministério das Relações Exteriores do Brasil, the Brazilian immigrant popula.on in 2010 is 3,040,993.

AFRICA 1%

NORTH AMERICA

26%

LATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN

12% ASIA 7%

EUROPE 51%

OCEANIA 1%

MIDDLE EAST 2%

Figure 1: DISTRIBUTION OF THE ELECTORATE ABROAD

First and Second Round Results of the 2010 Elec@ons

 Brazilian voters abroad cast 84,303 valid votes in the first turn of the 2010 elec.on. Absentee levels were high (42%) when compared to voters in the na.onal territory (18%). In the second turn, rates of absenteeism among voters abroad decreased (from 42% to 40%) while absenteeism among voters in the na.onal territory increased (from 18% to 21.5%);

  This low vo.ng rate among Brazilians abroad together with the fact that only 7 in every 100 Brazilians abroad register to vote (compared to 70 in every 100 Brazilians in the na.onal territory) shows the low engagement in the electoral process by Brazilians abroad. Figures 2 and 3 illustrate the vo.ng distribu.on on both turns of the 2010 elec.on by con.nent:

AFRICA 1%

NORTH AMERICA 36%


15%

ASIA 8%

EUROPE 37%

OCEANIA 1%

MIDDLE EAST 2%

Figure 2: DISTRIBUTION OF VOTES BY CONTINENT – 1st TURN

AFRICA 1%

NORTH AMERICA 36%


15%

ASIA 8%

EUROPE 37%

OCEANIA 1%

MIDDLE EAST 2%

Figure 3: DISTRIBUTION OF VOTES BY CONTINENT – 2nd TURN

  The Brazilian electorate abroad voted in 154 locali.es and 624 polling sta.ons distributed in five con.nents. The largest electorate is in the United States (66,940); followed by Portugal (23,182 voters); Italy (14,903 voters); Japan (11,827 voters); and Germany (8,533 voters).

 New York is the city with the largest electorate with 21,076 voters represen.ng 10.5% of the Brazilian immigrant electorate; followed by Lisbon with 12,360 voters (6.2%); Boston (12,330 or 6.1%); Milan (11,415 or 5.7%); Porto (10,822 or 5.4%); and Miami (10,273 or 5.1%);

  Figures 4 and 5 illustrate the vo.ng distribu.on in the United States. In the first turn, New York accounted for 31% of the valid votes, followed by Boston (20%), and Miami (16%). In the second turn, this distribu.on did not change much, with New York, Boston, and Miami occupying the same posi.ons:

ATLANTA 3% BOSTON

20%

CHICAGO 2%

HARTFORD 1%

HOUSTON 6%

LOS ANGELES 5% MIAMI

16%

NEW YORK 31%

SAN FRANCISCO 6%

WASHINGTON 10%

Figure 4: 2010 ELECTION UNITED STATES – 1st TURN

ATLANTA 3%

BOSTON 21%

CHICAGO 2%

HARTFORD 1%

HOUSTON 5%

LOS ANGELES 5%

MIAMI 16%

NEW YORK 32%

SAN FRANCISCO 6%

WASHINGTON 9%

Figure 5: 2010 ELECTION UNITED STATES – 2nd TURN

  Aker the results of the first turn of the 2010 elec.ons were compiled, the three candidates with the most votes had a total of 81,891 votes with the candidate from the Par.do da Social Democracia Brasileira (PSDB), José Serra, receiving 33,933 of the valid votes, followed by the candidate from the Par.do dos Trabalhadores (PT), Dilma Roussef, with 30,736 followed by the candidate from the Par.do Verde (PV), Marina da Silva, with 17,222 votes;

  This vo.ng paQern is very different from that of the resident Brazilian popula.on. Among the resident popula.on, the PT candidate obtained 46.91% of the votes, while, abroad, she obtained only 36.5% of the valid votes. The PSDB candidate, on the other hand, obtained 40.2% of the immigrant vote while receiving only 32.61% of the vote in Brazil. Finally, Marina da Silva showed a greater balance between the votes she received outside (20.4%) and within the country (19.33%):

1st Turn: 33,933 votes or 40.2% of the votes abroad (32.61% in Brazil)



  In the second turn, this trend did not change. In Brazil the PT candidate received 56.05% of the votes, while abroad she received only 40.87%. As in the first turn, the PSDB candidate had the majority of the immigrant vote (59.13%) while in the na.onal territory he received only 43.95% of the valid votes. The difference between the first and second turns was 13,980 more votes for the PSDB candidate:

2nd Turn: 47,913 votes or 59.13% of the votes abroad (43.95% in Brazil)

2nd Turn: 33,112 votes or 40.87% of the votes abroad (56.05% in Brazil)

First and Second Turn Results of the 2010 Elec@ons by Con@nent…

  In the first turn of the 2010 elec.ons, the PSDB candidate won the majority of the votes in North America, Asia, and Oceania. The PT candidate had the majority of the votes of Europe, La.n America and the Caribbean, Middle East, and Africa. The candidate of the green party (PV) placed second in North America and Oceania – see Figures 6 – 12:

DILMA 24%

SERRA 49%

MARINA 25%

OTHERS 2%

Figure 6: 1st TURN 2010 – NORTH AMERICA

DILMA 23%

SERRA 43%

MARINA 31%

OTHERS 3%

Figure 8: 1st TURN 2010 -‐ OCEANIA

DILMA 28%

SERRA 55%

MARINA 13%

OTHERS 4%

Figure 7: 1st TURN 2010 -‐ ASIA

DILMA 46%

SERRA 31%

MARINA 21%

OTHERS 2%

Figure 9: 1st TURN 2010 -‐ EUROPE

DILMA 47%

SERRA 39%

MARINA 12%

OTHERS 2%

Figure 11: 1st TURN 2010 – LATIN AMERICA & CARIBBEAN

DILMA 60% SERRA

25%

MARINA 9%

OTHERS 6%

Figure 10: 1st TURN 2010 – MIDDLE EAST

DILMA 44%

SERRA 29%

MARINA 25%

OTHERS 2%

Figure 12: 1st TURN 2010 -‐ AFRICA

  In the second turn, the PSDB candidate once again won the majority of the votes in North America, Asia, and Oceania, increasing his margins significantly in North America (from 49% in the first turn to 72% in the second), Asia (from 55% in the first turn to 74% in the second), and Oceania (from 43% in the first turn to 67% in the second). The PSDB candidate also won in La.n America. – see Figures 13 – 19:

DILMA 28%

SERRA 72%

Figure 13: 2nd TURN 2010 – NORTH AMERICA

DILMA 26%

SERRA 74%

Figure 14: 2nd TURN 2010 -‐ ASIA

DILMA 33%

SERRA 67%

Figure 15: 2nd TURN 2010 -‐ OCEANIA

DILMA 49%

SERRA 51%

Figure 16: 2nd TURN 2010 – LATIN AMERICA

DILMA 52%

SERRA 48%

Figure 17: 2nd TURN 2010 -‐ EUROPE

DILMA 67%

SERRA 33%

Figure 18: 2nd TURN 2010 – MIDDLE EAST

DILMA 58%

SERRA 42%

Figure 19: 2nd TURN 2010 -‐ AFRICA

  The results of the first turn of the 2010 elec.on in Brazil were similar in some ways to the results in 2006. In 2010, the candidate of the PSDB, José Serra, won the majority of the votes in eight states, the candidate of the PT, Dilma Rouseff, won in 18 states and Marina da Silva won the Distrito Federal. Dilma won the same 16 states that President Lula won in 2006 and, the states of Rio Grande do Sul and Goiás. That is, only three states did not elect the same party in 2010 as they had in 2006.

AFRICA LATIN AMERICA & THE

CARIBBEAN**

NORTH AMERICA*

EUROPE ASIA MIDDLE EAST OCEANIA

2002 LULA LULA LULA CIRO SERRA LULA LULA

2006 LULA LULA ALCKMIN ALCKMIN ALCKMIN LULA ALCKMIN

2010 DILMA DILMA SERRA DILMA SERRA DILMA SERRA

 Abroad, there were also similari.es between the first turn of the two elec.ons. Only La.n America & the Caribbean did not elect the same winning party as 2006. The PT con.nued its domina.on in Europe, Africa and the Middle East, while the PSDB con.nued to maintain majori.es in Asia and seemed to consolidate its gains in North America and Oceania:

* Does not include Mexico, ** Includes Mexico.

2002 ELECTIONS 1st TURN

2006 ELECTION 1st TURN

2010 ELECTION 1st TURN

Source: Revista Época, 2010

  In the second turn, differences between 2010 and 2006 results were more significant. In this turn, four states did not elect the same party as 2006. Changes were also registered between the first and the second turns of the 2010 elec.ons. Dilma Rouseff won in Mato Grosso do Sul which was won by the candidate of the PSDB in the first turn and she also won the Distrito Federal won by the candidate of the PV. The candidate of the PSDB, on the other hand, won in Espírito Santo and Rio Grande do Sul, states that were won in the first turn by the candidate of the PT.

AFRICA LATIN AMERICA & THE

CARIBBEAN**

NORTH AMERICA*

EUROPE ASIA MIDDLE EAST OCEANIA

2002 LULA LULA LULA CIRO SERRA LULA LULA

2006 LULA LULA ALCKMIN ALCKMIN ALCKMIN LULA ALCKMIN

2010 DILMA DILMA SERRA SERRA SERRA DILMA SERRA

  The results of the second turn seemed to show a consolida.on of the PSDB in North America, Asia, Oceania, and La.n America & Caribbean; and that of the PT in Europe, Africa, and the Middle East.

* Does not include Mexico, ** Includes Mexico.

ELEIÇÃO 2010 2nd TURNO

2006 ELECTION 2nd TURN

Source: Revista Época, 2010

2002 ELECTION 2nd TURN

Legend

SERRA 39%

LULA 61%

Figure 20: VOTING DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN THE TWO FINALISTS -‐ BRAZIL

ALCKMIN 39%

LULA 61%


SERRA 44%

DILMA 56%


SERRA 40%

LULA 60%

Figure 23: VOTING DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN THE TWO FINALISTS -‐ EXTERIOR

ALCKMIN 54%

LULA 46%

FIGURE 24: VOTING DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN THE TWO FINALISTS – EXTERIOR

2002, 2006, AND 2010 ELECTION RESULTS IN BRAZIL AND ABROAD:

2002 2006 2010

2002 2006

+ 22% + 22% + 12%

+ 20% + 8%

  The PT won the 2002 and 2006 elec.ons in Brazil by the same margin (22%). In the last elec.on in Brazil (2010), the candidate of the PT, Dilma Rouseff, won by a smaller margin (12%). Abroad, only the elec.on of 2002 showed similar results to that of the na.onal territory. The PSDB was victorious in the elec.ons of 2006 and 2010 abroad.

+ 18%

SERRA 59%

DILMA 41%

Figure 25: VOTING DISTRIBUTION BETWEEN THE TWO FINALISTS -‐ EXTERIOR

2010

3753

2510 1938

1312 1168

1152

1144 1009 961 929

2198

622

1795

536 590

1106

2094 2099 1976

251

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

NOVA

YORK

MIAMI

BOSTON

WASH

INGTO

N

NAGOYA

LONDRE

S

LISB

OA

PORT

O

MILAO

HOUSTON

Figure 29: DILMA VOTES IN THE CITIES THAT SERRA HAD HIS LARGEST VOTING

SERRA

DILMA

2198 2099 2094 1976 1795

1187 1177 1106 992 964

3753

1009 1144

961

1938

546 897

1152

496 618

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

NOVA

YORK

PORT

O

LISB

OA

MILÃO

BOSTON

BUEN

OS AIRES

ZURIQUE

LONDRE

S

CAIENA

PARIS

Figure 28: SERRA VOTES IN THE CITIES THAT DILMA HAD HER LARGEST VOTING

DILMA

SERRA

  Figure 26 and 27 illustrate the ci.es in which the candidates of the PSDB and PT each had the majority of the votes. Figure 28 and 29 illustrate the votes of the two candidates in the ci.es in which the other had the majority of the votes. A comparison of these Figure shows that the candidate of the PSDB obtained more votes in the ci.es where Dilma Rouseff had her largest concentra.on of voters – New York, Boston, and London; while the candidate of the PT had the majority of the votes in the ci.es where the candidate of the PSDB had its largest concentra.on of voters – Lisbon, Porto, and Milan.

2198 2099 2094 1976 1795

1187 1177 1106 992 964

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

NOVA

YORK

PORT

O

LISB

OA

MILÃO

BOSTON

BUEN

OS AIRES

ZURIQUE

LONDRE

S

CAIENA

PARIS

# of Votes

Ci@es

Figure 26: 10 CITIES WHERE DILMA HAD HER LARGEST VOTING 3753

2510 1938

1312 1168 1152 1144 1009 961 929

0 500

1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

NOVA

YORK

MIAMI

BOSTON

WASH

INGTO

N

NAGOYA

LONDRE

S

LISB

OA

PORT

O

MILAO

HOUSTON

# of Votes

Cidades

Figure 27: 10 CITIES WHERE SERRA HAD HIS LARGEST VOTING

5715

3340 3298

1784 1783 1667 1608 1516 1457

1429

2340

692

2040

640 1299

2289

557

2093

1359

1899

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

NOVA

YORK

MIAMI

BOSTON

WASH

INGTO

N

LONDRE

S

LISB

OA

NAGOYA

PORT

O

ZURIQUE

MILAO

Figure 33: DILMA’S VOTES IN THE 10 CITIES WHERE SERRA OBTAINED HIS LARGEST VOTING

SERRA

DILMA

  In the second turn, as Figure 30 and 31 illustrate, some ci.es changed posi.on, but the ten ci.es in which the Pt candidate had the majority of her votes remained the same. The same occurred with the candidate of PSDB, with the excep.on of Houston which ceded its place to Zurique.

  Figure 32 and 33 show the ci.es in which the candidate of PT had the highest number of votes (New York, Boston and London) while in the ci.es where the PSDB candidate had his highest number of votes, the candidate of PT had the majority of votes in Lisbon, Porto, and Milan. Therefore, there was no change between the first and second terms. The PSDB candidate increased his vo.ng margin in the second turn, however.

2340 2289 2093 2040

1899

1359 1299 1297 1037 986

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

NOVA

YORK

LISB

OA

PORT

O

BOSTON

MILAO

ZURIQUE

LONDRE

S

BUEN

OS AIRES

PARIS

CAIENA

# de

Votos

Ci@es

Figure 30: 10 CITIES WHERE DILMA OBTAINED HER LARGEST VOTING

5715

3340 3298

1784 1783 1667 1608 1516 1457 1429

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

NOVA

YORK

MIAMI

BOSTON

WASH

INGTO

N

LONDRE

S

LISB

OA

NAGOYA

PORT

O

ZURIQUE

MILAO

# de

Votos

Ci@es

Figure 31: 10 CITIES WHERE SERRA OBTAINED HIS LARGEST VOTING

2340 2289 2093 2040 1899 1359 1299 1297 1037 986

5715

1667 1516

3298

1429 1457 1783

748 772 665

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

NOVA

YORK

LISB

OA

PORT

O

BOSTON

MILAO

ZURIQUE

LONDRE

S

BUEN

OS AIRES

PARIS

CAIENA

Figure 32: SERRA’S VOTES IN THE 10 CITIES WHERE DILMA OBTAINED HER LARGEST VOTING

DILMA

SERRA

2010 Results of the First and Second Turns in North America…

  The candidate of the PSDB had the most votes in North America (49%) compared to 24% and 25% for the candidates of the PV and PT respec.vely. The candidate of the PSDB had most of the votes both in the United States and Canada. In the United States, he obtained 49% of the votes followed by the candidate of the PV (25%) and the PT (24%). In Canada, the majority of the votes went to the candidate of the PSDB (47%) followed by the candidate of the PV (26%) with the candidate of the PT totalling only 25%. It is worth highligh.ng that the candidate of the PV, Marina da Silva, finished second in these two countries (see Figures 34 -‐ 36);

DILMA 24%

SERRA 49%

MARINA 25%

OTHERS 2%

Figure 34: 1st TURN OF THE 2010 ELECTIONS – NORTH AMERICA

DILMA 24%

SERRA 49%

MARINA 25%

OTHERS 2%

Figure 35: 1st TURN OF THE 2010 ELECTIONS – UNITED STATES

DILMA 25%

SERRA 47%

MARINA 26%

OTHERS 2%

Figure 36: 1st TURN OF THE 2010 ELECTIONS – CANADA

  In the United States, the candidate of the PSDB had the most votes in all ci.es of the country: Atlanta (Serra 54%, Marina 23%, Dilma 21%); Chicago (Serra 61%, Marina 23%, Dilma 15%); Boston (Serra 36%, Dilma 34%, Marina 28%); Haruord (Serra 38%, Dilma 30%, Marina 28%); Houston (Serra 62%, Marina 19%, Dilma 17%); Los Angeles (Serra 54%, Marina 23%, Dilma 21%); Miami (Serra 59%, Marina 25%, Dilma 15%); New York (Serra 45%, Dilma 26%, Marina 25%); San Francisco (Serra 53%, Marina 25%, Dilma 20%); Washington (Serra 52%, Marina 25%, Dilma 21%) – see the following Figures:

21%

54%

23%

1, 2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

DILMA SERRA MARINA OUTROS

% of V

otes

Candidates

Figure 38: 1st TURN OF THE 2010 ELECTION – ATLANTA

ATLANTA 3% BOSTON

20%

CHICAGO 2%

HARTFORD 1%

HOUSTON 6%

LOS ANGELES 5% MIAMI

16%

NOVA YORK 31%

SAO FRANCISCO

6%

WASHINGTON 10%

Figure 37: 1st TURN OF THE 2010 ELECTION – UNITED STATES

34% 36%

28%

2%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%


% of Vo

tes

Candidates

Figure 40: 1st TURN OF THE 2010 ELECTION -‐ BOSTON

15%

61%

23%

1% 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%


% of Vo

tes

Candidates

Figure 39: 1st TURN OF THE 2010 ELECTION – CHICAGO

30%

38%

28%

4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%


% of Vo

tes

Candidates

Figure 41: 1st TURN OF THE 2010 ELECTION -‐ HARTFORD

17%

62%

19%

2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%


% of V

otes

Candidates

Figure 42: 1st TURN OF THE 2010 ELECTION -‐ HOUSTON

21%

54%

23%

2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


% of V

otes

Candidates

Figure 43: 1st TURN OF THE 2010 ELECTION -‐ LOS ANGELES

15%

59%

25%

2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%


% of V

otes

Candidates

Figure 43: 1st TURN OF THE 2010 ELECTION -‐ MIAMI

26%

45%

25%

3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%


% of Vo

tes

Candidates

Figure 45: 1st TURN OF THE 2010 ELECTION NOVA YORK

20%

53%

25%

2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


% of Vo

tes

Candidates

Figure 46: 1st TURN OF THE 2010 ELECTION SÃO FRANCISCO

21%

52%

25%

2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


% of Vo

tes

Candidates

Figure 47: 1st TURN OF THE 2010 ELECTION -‐ WASHINGTON

 As in the first turn, the candidate of the PSDB was the candidate with the most votes in North America moving from 49% to 72% (which may indicate that the majority of the votes given in the first turn to the candidate of the PV (25%) went to the candidate of the PSDB). The candidate of the PT also increased her numbers but not on the same scale (from 24% to 28%). This trend was followed in the United States and Canada. In the United States, the candidate of the PSDB obtained 72% while in Canada he obtained 68% – see Figures 48 – 50.

DILMA 28%

SERRA 72%

Figure 48: 2nd TURN OF THE 2010 ELECTION -‐ NORTH AMERICA

DILMA 28%

SERRA 72%

Figure 49: 2nd TURN OF THE 2010 ELECTION – UNITED STATES

DILMA 32%

SERRA 68%

Figure 50: 2nd TURN OF THE 2010 ELECTION -‐ CANADA

  In the United States, in the second turn, the candidate of the PSDB not only was the candidate with the majority of the votes in all ci.es of the country as in the first turn (see Figures 52 – 61), but also considerably increased his margins as illustrated by Figure 62:

ATLANTA 3% BOSTON

21%

CHICAGO 2%

HARTFORD 1%

HOUSTON 5%

LOS ANGELES 5%

MIAMI 16%

NOVA YORK 32%

0%

SAO FRANCISCO 6%

WASHINGTON 9%

Figure 51: -‐ UNITED STATES

23%

77%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

DILMA SERRA

Figure 52: 2nd TURN OF THE 2010 ELECTION ATLANTA

Candidates

% of Vo

tes

20%

80%

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

DILMA SERRA

Figure 53: 2nd TURN OF THE 2010 ELECTION CHICAGO

Candidates

% of Vo

tes

38%

62%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

DILMA SERRA

Figure 54: 2nd TURN OF THE 2010 ELECTION BOSTON

% of Vo

tes

Candidates

34%

66%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

DILMA SERRA

Figure 55: 2nd TURN OF THE 2010 ELECTION HARTFORD

Candidates

% of Vo

tes

19%

81%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

DILMA SERRA

Figure 56: 2nd TURN OF THE 2010 ELECTION HOUSTON

Candidates

% of Vo

tes

22%

78%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

DILMA SERRA

Figure 57: 2nd TURN OF THE 2010 ELECTION LOS ANGELES

Candidates

% of Vo

tes

17%

83%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

DILMA SERRA

Figure 58: 2nd TURN OF THE 2010 ELECTION MIAMI

Candidates

% of Vo

tes

29%

71%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

DILMA SERRA

Figure 59: 2nd TURN OF THE 2010 ELECTION NOVA YORK

Candidates

% of Vo

tes

26%

74%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

DILMA SERRA

Figure 60: 2nd TURN OF THE 2010 ELECTION SAO FRANCISCO

Candidates

% of Vo

tes

26%

74%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

DILMA SERRA

Figure 61 : 2nd TURN OF THE 2010 ELECTION WASHINGTON

Candidates

% dos Votes

21%

15%

34%

30%

17%

21%

15%

26%

20% 21% 23%

20%

38%

34%

19%

22%

17%

29%

26% 26%

54%

61%

36% 38%

62%

54%

59%

45%

53% 52%

77%

80%

62%

66%

81%

78%

83%

71%

74%

71%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

ATLANTA

CHICAG

O

BOSTON

HART

FORD

HOUSTON

LOS ANGELES

MIAMI

NOVA

YORK

SÃO FRA

NCISCO

WASH

INGTO

N

Figure 62: VOTING MARGINS IN THE 1st AND 2nd TURNS – UNITED STATES

DILMA (1 E 2 TURNOS)

SERRA (1 E 2 TURNOS)

  Figure62 describes the difference between the vo.ng margins of the first and second turns and illustrates the large margins reached by the candidate of the PSDB in both turns, with a significant increase in the second turn:

 Canada follows the same paQern as the United States in both turns with the candidate of the PSDB winning in Toronto (Serra 49%, Dilma 26%, Marina 24%); Vancouver (Serra 63%, Marina 35%, Dilma 0%); OQawa (Serra 48%, Marina 25%, Dilma 24%); and Montreal (Serra 43%, Dilma 30%, Marina 26%) – see Figures.

MONTREAL 41%

OTTAWA 10%

TORONTO 42%

VANCOUVER 7%

Figure 63: 1st TURN OF THE 2010 ELECTION CANADA

0%

63%

35%

2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%


% dos votos

Candidates

Figure 64: 1st TURN OF THE 2010 ELECTION VANCOUVER

26%

49%

24%

1%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


% of Vo

tes

Candidates

Figure 65: 1st TURN OF THE 2010 ELECTION TORONTO

24%

48%

25%

3%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


% of Vo

tes

Candidates

Figure 66: 1st TURN OF THE 2010 ELECTION OTTAWA

30%

43%

26%

1%

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50%

DILMA SERRA MARINA OUTROS % of Vo

tes

Candidates

Figure 67: 1st TURN OF THE 2010 ELECTION MONTREAL

  In the second turn, as in the United States, the margins in Canada increased significantly in favor of the candidate of the PSDB – see Figures 69 -‐ 72.

MONTREAL 40%

OTTAWA 10%

TORONTO 42%

VANCOUVER 8%

Figure 68: 2nd TURN OF THE 2010 ELECTION CANADA

28%

72%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

DILMA SERRA

Figure 69: 2nd TURN OF THE 2010 ELECTION VANCOUVER

% of Vo

tes

Candidates

29%

71%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

DILMA SERRA

Figure 70: 2nd TURN OF THE 2010 ELECTION TORONTO

% of Vo

tes

Candidates

33%

67%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

DILMA SERRA

Figure 71: 2nd TURN OF THE 2010 ELECTION OTTAWA

Candidates

% of Vo

tes 36%

64%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

DILMA SERRA

Figure 72: 2nd TURN OF THE 2010 ELECTION MONTREAL

Candidates

% of Vo

tes

  Figure 73 describes the difference between the vo.ng margins in the two turns, and illustrates the high margins achieved by the candidate of the PSDB in both turns, with a significant increase in the second turn:

0%

26% 24%

30% 28% 29%

33% 36%

63%

49% 48%

43%

72% 71%

67% 64%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

VANCOUVER TORONTO OTTAWA MONTREAL

Figure 73: VOTING MARGINS IN THE 1st AND 2nd TURNS -‐ CANADA

DILMA (1 E 2 TURNOS)

SERRA (1 E 2 TURNOS)

how brazilian immigrants vote - 2010 elections

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